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Background Baseball has specific sport and positional demands that may modify joint pain compared with other sports. Persistent joint pain reduces function and is an underlying reason for seeking medical care. The pain and functional status of players after they stop competitive play are unknown. Such knowledge can assist clinicians in creating personalized physical examinations and interventions for baseball players as they transition to retirement. The purpose of this study was to (1) evaluate persistent joint pain and arm function in former baseball players and (2) determine whether playing position is associated with increased odds of joint pain and reduced arm function in former baseball players. Methods A cross-sectional survey was performed. Eligibility criteria consisted of (1) played ≥1 collegiate baseball season, (2) aged ≥18 years, and (3) formerly played baseball (currently retired). Outcomes assessed included persistent joint pain and Single Assessment Numeric Evaluation (SANE). Explanatory variables included playing position (position, two-way, or pitcher). Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were performed. Models were adjusted for age, body mass index, arm dominance, playing standard, years played baseball, and injury and surgery history. Results A total of 117 former baseball players participated (age: 36.8 [13.7] years). The mean dominant SANE score was 70.2 (standard deviation 24.1), and the mean nondominant SANE score was 85.2 (standard deviation 19.4). There was no difference in dominant arm SANE scores when stratified by arm injury history (4.6 [95% confidence interval: −14.9, 5.8]) or arm surgery history (−3.8 [95% confidence interval: 13.4, 5.8]). The shoulders had the greatest persistent joint pain prevalence (28% of all participants) and elbows (21% of all participants). There was no relationship between dominant arm pain or function and playing position. Conclusion This is the first study to demonstrate an increase in dominant arm disability in former baseball players. The high prevalence of persistent arm pain and poor arm function among former baseball players is concerning considering participants were younger than 40 years of age. No differences were observed in arm function when stratifying by arm history, surgery, or position demonstrating the potential relationship between baseball participation and arm disability after cessation of play. Clinicians should consider working with baseball players to develop long-term strategies to maintain joint health, especially in the throwing arm, when baseball players are transitioning to retirement. Future research is needed to understand the long-term effectiveness of clinical treatments and the implications of specific arm injuries such as ulnar collateral ligament tears on persistent arm pain and function.

BackgroundPhysical activity (PA) is important to general health and knee osteoarthritis (OA). Excessive workplace PA is an established risk factor for knee OA however, appropriate methods of measurement are unclear. There is a need to examine and assess the utility of new methods of measuring workplace PA and estimating knee load prior to application to large-scale, knee OA cohorts. Our aims, therefore, were to monitor workplace PA and estimate lower-limb loading across different occupations in health participants.MethodsTwenty-four healthy adults, currently working full-time in a single occupation (≥ 35 h/week) and free of musculoskeletal disease, comorbidity and had no history of lower-limb injury/surgery (past 12-months) were recruited across New South Wales (Australia). A convenience sample was recruited with occupations assigned to levels of workload; sedentary, light manual and heavy manual. Metrics of workplace PA including tasks performed (i.e., sitting), step-count and lower-limb loading were monitored over 10 working days using a daily survey, smartwatch, and a smartphone.ResultsParticipants of light manual occupations had the greatest between-person variations in mean lower-limb load (from 2 to 59 kg*m/s3). Lower-limb load for most participants of the light manual group was similar to a single participant in heavy manual work (30 kg*m/s3) and was at least three times greater than the sedentary group (2 kg*m/s3). The trends of workplace PA over working hours were largely consistent, per individual, but rare events of extreme loads were observed across all participants (up to 760 kg*m/s3).ConclusionsThere are large interpersonal variations in metrics of workplace PA, particularly among light and heavy manual occupations. Our estimates of lower-limb loading were largely consistent with pre-conceived levels of physical demand. We present a new approach to monitoring PA and estimating lower-limb loading, which could be applied to future occupational studies of knee OA.

Objective To summarize available evidence on the association between hip shape as quantified by statistical shape modeling (SSM) and the incidence or progression of hip osteoarthritis. Design We conducted a systematic search of five electronic databases, based on a registered protocol (available: PROSPERO CRD42020145411). Articles presenting original data on the longitudinal relationship between radiographic hip shape (quantified by SSM) and hip OA were eligible. Quantitative meta-analysis was precluded because of the use of different SSM models across studies. We used the Newcastle–Ottawa Scale (NOS) for risk of bias assessment. Results Nine studies (6,483 hips analyzed with SSM) were included in this review. The SSM models used to describe hip shape ranged from 16 points on the femoral head to 85 points on the proximal femur and hemipelvis. Multiple hip shape features and combinations thereof were associated with incident or progressive hip OA. Shape variants that seemed to be consistently associated with hip OA across studies were acetabular dysplasia, cam morphology, and deviations in acetabular version (either excessive anteversion or retroversion). Conclusions Various radiographic, SSM-defined hip shape features are associated with hip OA. Some hip shape features only seem to increase the risk for hip OA when combined together. The heterogeneity of the used SSM models across studies precludes the estimation of pooled effect sizes. Further studies using the same SSM model and definition of hip OA are needed to allow for the comparison of outcomes across studies, and to validate the found associations., Osteoarthritis and Cartilage, 29 (5), ISSN:1063-4584, ISSN:1522-9653

ObjectiveThe BRAIN Study was established to assess the associations between self-reported concussions and cognitive function among retired rugby players.MethodsFormer elite-level male rugby union players (50+ years) in England were recruited. Exposure to rugby-related concussion was collected using the BRAIN-Q tool. The primary outcome measure was the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite (PACC). Linear regressions were conducted for the association between concussion and PACC score, adjusting for confounders.ResultsA total of 146 participants were recruited. The mean (standard deviation) length of playing career was 15.8 (5.4) years. A total of 79.5% reported rugby-related concussion(s). No association was found between concussion and PACC (β –0.03 [95% confidence interval (CI): –1.31, 0.26]). However, participants aged 80+ years reporting 3+ concussions had worse cognitive function than those without concussion (β –1.04 [95% CI: –1.62, –0.47]).ConclusionsOverall there was no association between concussion and cognitive function; however, a significant interaction with age revealed an association in older participants.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if playing position, a higher playing standard, and nonhelmet use are related to an increased odds of joint-specific injury and concussion in cricket. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort. PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-eight thousand one hundred fifty-two current or former recreational and high-performance cricketers registered on a national database were invited to participate in the Cricket Health and Wellbeing Study. Eligibility requirements were aged ≥18 years and played ≥1 cricket season. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES: Main playing position (bowler/batter/all-rounder), playing standard (high-performance/recreational), and helmet use (always/most of the time/occasionally/never). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cross-sectional questionnaire data included cricket-related injury (hip/groin, knee, ankle, shoulder, hand, back) resulting in ≥4 weeks of reduced exercise and self-reported concussion history. Crude and adjusted (adjusted for seasons played) odds ratios and 95% confidence interval (CIs) were estimated using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of 2294 participants (59% current cricketers; 97% male; age 52 ± 15 years; played 29 ± 15 seasons; 62% recreational cricketers), 47% reported cricket-related injury and 10% reported concussion. Bowlers had greater odds of hip/groin [odds ratio (95% CI), 1.9 (1.0-3.3)], knee [2.0 (1.4-2.8)], shoulder [2.9 (1.8-4.5)], and back [2.8 (1.7-4.4)] injury compared with batters. High-performance cricketers had greater odds of injury and concussion than recreational cricketers. Wearing a helmet most of the time [2.0 (1.4-3.0)] or occasionally [1.8 (1.3-2.6)] was related to higher odds of self-reported concussion compared with never wearing a helmet. Concussion rates were similar in cricketers who always and never wore a helmet. CONCLUSIONS: A higher playing standard and bowling (compared with batting) were associated with greater odds of injury. Wearing a helmet occasionally or most of the time was associated with higher odds of self-reported concussion compared with never wearing a helmet.

Objective Use of specific medications may accelerate the progression of radiographic knee OA (RKOA). Our aim was to examine the effect of medication use on the progression of RKOA. Methods We used longitudinal data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), an observational study of risk factors for knee OA. At baseline, we selected participants with RKOA (Kellgren–Lawrence grade ≥2) and excluded those with a history of knee-related injury/surgery and other musculoskeletal disorders. Current medication use (use/non-use in the previous 30 days) and radiographic medial minimum joint space width (mJSW) data were available at baseline and annually up to 96 months follow-up. We used random effects, panel regression to assess the association between current medication use (non-users as reference group) and change in mJSW. Results Of 2054 eligible participants, 2003 participants with baseline mJSW data were included [55.7% female, mean age 63.3 (s.d. 8.98) years]. Of seven medication classes, at baseline NSAIDs were the most frequently used analgesia (14.7%), anti-histamine (10.4%) use was frequent and the following comorbidity medications were used most frequently: statins (27.4%), anti-hypertensives (up to 15.0%), anti-depressant/anxiolytics/psychotropics (14.0%), osteoporosis-related medication (10.9%) and diabetes-related medication (6.9%). Compared with current non-users, current use of NSAIDs was associated with a loss of mJSW (b = −0.042, 95% CI −0.08, −0.0004). No other associations were observed. Conclusions In current users of NSAIDs, mJSW loss was increased compared with current non-users in participants with RKOA. Clinical trials are required to assess the potential disease-modifying effects of these medications.

Progressive hand interphalangeal joint (IPJ) osteoarthritis is associated with pain, reduced function and impaired quality of life. However, the evidence surrounding risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression is unclear. Identifying risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression may inform preventative strategies and early interventions to improve long-term outcomes for individuals at risk of IPJ osteoarthritis progression. The objectives of the study were to describe methods used to measure the progression of IPJ osteoarthritis and identify risk factors for IPJ osteoarthritis progression. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception to 19th February 2020 (PROSPERO CRD42019121034). Eligible studies assessed potential risk factor/s associated with IPJ osteoarthritis progression. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified QUIPS Tool, and a best evidence synthesis was performed. Of eight eligible studies, all measured osteoarthritis progression radiographically, and none considered symptoms. Eighteen potential risk factors were assessed. Diabetes (adjusted mean difference between 2.06 and 7.78), and larger finger epiphyseal index in males (regression coefficient β = 0.202) and females (β = 0.325) were identified as risk factors (limited evidence). Older age in men and women showed mixed results; 13 variables were not risk factors (all limited evidence). Patients with diabetes and larger finger epiphyseal index might be at higher risk of radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis progression, though evidence is limited and studies are biased. Studies assessing symptomatic IPJ osteoarthritis progression are lacking. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00296-020-04687-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Objective To assess the long-term prevalence, natural history, progression, and incidence of radiographic first metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joint osteoarthritis (OA). Methods A longitudinal cohort design was used in which radiographic OA at the first MTP joint was investigated in participants from the Chingford 1,000 Women Study at year 6 (1995) and year 23 (2013-2015). Radiographic features of osteophytes (OPs) and/or joint space narrowing (JSN) at the first MTP joint were scored according to a validated foot atlas. Natural history was determined by the change in prevalence, incidence, progression, and worsening of OA in the first MTP joint. Results Complete case-matched foot radiographic data were available for 193 of the women currently enrolled in the study (mean ± SD age 75.7 ± 5.2 years [range 69-90 years]). At the level of the first MTP joint, prevalence of OA at year 6 was 21.76% in the left and 24.35% in the right; at year 23, it was 23.83% in the left and 32.64% in the right. Over the 19-year period, 13.5% of the women developed incident OA in the right first MTP joint and 8.3% in the left. Both progression and worsening of OA were more evident for OPs and in the right first MTP joints. Conclusion In this study of the natural history of radiographic first MTP joint OA, which to our knowledge is the longest study to date, the prevalence and incidence of first MTP joint OA increased over a 19-year period. Progression and/or worsening of OA at the first MTP joint over time appears to be driven by OP development rather than JSN, which suggests a biomechanical cause.

Background We aimed to quantify the association between chronic musculoskeletal pain and all-cause mortality, and to investigate the extent to which this association is mediated by physical activity, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and opioid use. Methods For this population-based cohort study, we used data from UK Biobank, UK between baseline visit (2006–2010) to 18th December 2020. We assessed the associations between chronic musculoskeletal pain and all-cause mortality using a Cox proportional hazards model. We performed causal mediation analyses to examine the proportion of the association between chronic musculoskeletal pain and all-cause mortality. Findings Of the 384,367 included participants, a total of 187,269 participants reported chronic musculoskeletal pain. Higher number of pain sites was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to having no pain (e.g., four sites vs no site of pain, Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.46, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.35 to 1.57). The multiple mediator analyses showed that the mediating proportions of all four mediators ranged from 53.4% to 122.6%: among participants with two or more pain sites, the effect estimate reduced substantially, for example, HR reduced from 1.25 (95% CI: 1.21 to 1.30; two pain sites) to 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.11; two pain sites). Interpretation We found that higher number of pain sites was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality compared to having no pain, and at least half of the association of chronic musculoskeletal pain with increased all-cause mortality may be accounted for by four mediators. Funding Twins Research Australia.

Objective: Rheumatoid factor (RF) testing is used in primary care in the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA); however a positive RF may occur without RA. Incorrect use of RF testing may lead to increased costs and delayed diagnoses. The aim was to assess the performance of RF as a test for RA and to estimate the costs associated with its use in a primary care setting. Material and methods: A retrospective cohort study using the Information System for the Development of Research in Primary Care database (contains primary care records and laboratory results of >80% of the Catalonian population, Spain). Participants were patients ≥18 years with ≥1 RF test performed between 01/01/2006 and 31/12/2011, without a preexisting diagnosis of RA. Outcome measures were an incident diagnosis of RA within 1 year of testing, and the cost of testing per case of RA. Results: 495,434/4,796,498 (10.3%) patients were tested at least once. 107,362 (21.7%) of those tested were sero-positive of which 2,768 (2.6%) were diagnosed with RA within 1 year as were 1,141/388,072 (0.3%) sero-negative participants. The sensitivity of RF was 70.8% (95% CI 69.4 to 72.2), specificity 78.7% (78.6 to 78.8), and positive and negative predictive values 2.6% (2.5 to 2.7) and 99.7% (99.6 to 99.7) respectively. Approximately €3,963,472 was spent, with a cost of €1,432 per true positive case. Conclusions: Although 10% of patients were tested for RF, most did not have RA. Limiting testing to patients with a higher pre-test probability would significantly reduce the cost of testing.

Objectives To examine whether foot and/or ankle pain increases the risk of knee OA. Design We utilised longitudinal data from the Multicentre Osteoarthritis Study (MOST); a community-based cohort of risk factors for knee OA. Participants without frequent knee pain (clinic visit only) and radiographic knee OA (RKOA) at baseline and, with no evidence of musculoskeletal disease and a history of knee-related surgery were followed for up to 84-months for incident outcomes; i) RKOA (Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) ≥2), ii) symptomatic RKOA (RKOA and frequent pain in the same knee) and iii) frequent knee pain only. At baseline, ankle and foot symptoms were assessed, with knee radiographs and symptoms also assessed at 30, 60 and 84-months. Our exposures included baseline ankle, foot, and ankle and foot pain (participant-level). Associations between foot and/or ankle pain and incident outcomes were assessed using multiple logistic regression, with adjustment for participant characteristics and ankle/foot pain. Results No statistically significant associations were observed between ankle, foot and, ankle and foot pain and incident RKOA, respectively. Ankle pain with (2.30, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.66) and without foot pain (OR: 2.53, 95% CI 1.34 to 4.80) were associated with increased odds of incident symptomatic RKOA and frequent knee pain. No statistically significant associations were observed between foot pain and these outcomes. Conclusions Ankle pain should be a focus point, more so than foot pain, in the management of knee OA. Future studies should include additional ankle joint-specific symptom questions to better elucidate the knee OA biomechanical pathway.

ObjectiveFormer sports participants do not necessarily maintain high levels of physical activity (PA) across their lifespan. Considering physical inactivity in former athletes is associated with an increased susceptibility to inactivity-related chronic diseases, research into PA behaviours in cricketers of all playing-standards is needed. The objective was to (1) describe PA and sedentary behaviour in current and former cricketers, and (2) determine the odds of current, former, recreational and elite cricketers meeting PA guidelines and health-enhancing PA (HEPA) compared with the general population.Study designCross-sectional survey.SettingQuestionnaire response, UK.Participants2267 current and former cricketers (age: 52±15 years, male: 97%, current: 59%, recreational: 45%) participated. Cricketers were recruited through the Cricket Health and Wellbeing Study and met eligibility requirements (aged ≥18 years; played ≥1 year of cricket).Primary and secondary outcomesAge-matched and sex-matched data from Health Survey for England 2015 (n=3201) was used as the general population-based sample. The International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short-Form assessed PA. Logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, alcohol consumption, smoking, education and ethnicity were used to meet the second aim.Results90% of current and 82% of former cricketers met UK PA guidelines. Current (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.49)) and elite (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.78) cricketers had greater odds of meeting UK PA guidelines, and elite cricketers had greater odds of HEPA (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.42), compared with the general population. Former cricketers had reduced odds (OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.99) of meeting the UK PA guidelines compared with the general population.ConclusionsElite cricketers had a greater odds of meeting the PA guidelines and HEPA, compared with the general population. Former cricketers demonstrated reduced odds of meeting the PA guidelines compared with the general population. Strategies are needed to transition cricketers to an active lifestyle after retirement, since former cricketers demonstrated reduced odds of meeting the PA guidelines compared with the general population.

Background: A comprehensive understanding of lifestyle (health conditions and substance use), health-related quality of life (HRQoL), flourishing (holistic representation of health), and physical activity can inform stakeholders (players, coaches, and clinicians) and help improve long-term health across the life span. Purpose: To describe health conditions (comorbidities or diagnoses), substance use, physical activity, HRQoL, and flourishing in current and former collegiate and professional baseball players and to assess the relationship between playing position and HRQoL/flourishing in former baseball players. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: Eligible participants were those ≥18 years old with ≥1 season of collegiate or professional baseball experience. Participants completed a survey on health conditions (asthma, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and depression), substance use (tobacco, alcohol, and energy drinks), physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire–Short Form), HRQoL (Veterans Rand 12-Item Health Survey [VR-12] physical and mental component scores), and flourishing (Flourishing Scale). Adjusted multivariable regressions were performed for HRQoL and flourishing. Results: Overall, 260 baseball players opened the survey, and 214 (current players, 97; former players, 117) participated for an 82% response rate. Of the former players, 32% had hypertension or hypercholesterolemia. In addition, 26% of current players had used smokeless tobacco (median, 3 years; interquartile range [IQR], 1-5 years) as compared with 34% of former players (median, 15 years; IQR, 5-25 years). In addition, 14% of current players had used electronic cigarettes (median, 2 years; IQR, 0-4 years) as opposed to 3% of former (median, 3 years; IQR, 2-4 years). Energy drinks were consumed by 31% and 14%, respectively, of current and former players on at least a weekly basis. Current baseball players performed 8667 metabolic equivalents per week of physical activity as opposed to 3931 in former players. Pitching was associated with worse VR-12 Mental Component Scores (–5.0; 95% confidence interval, –9.0 to –1.0). Playing position was not related to VR-12 Physical Component Scores or flourishing in former baseball players. Conclusion: The similar smokeless tobacco prevalence between current and former baseball players suggests that they may start using tobacco products during baseball participation and continue after retirement. Similar reported HRQoL as compared with the general US population and high flourishing and physical activity levels suggest that baseball players may present with good musculoskeletal and psychological health.

Background Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials. Objectives Stage 1 – replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 – compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1. Design This was a cohort study. Setting Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data. Participants Stage 1 – people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 – participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3. Intervention The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery. Main outcome measures The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs. Results In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of Limitations Although some propensity score methods successfully replicated TOPKAT, unresolved confounding may have affected stage 2. Missing Oxford Knee Scores may have led to information bias. Conclusions Propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting successfully replicated TOPKAT, implying that some (but not all) propensity score methods can be used to evaluate surgical innovations and implantable medical devices using routine NHS data. Unicompartmental knee replacement was safer and more cost-effective than total knee replacement for patients with severe comorbidity and should be considered the first option for suitable patients. Future work Further research is required to understand the performance of propensity score methods for evaluating surgical innovations and implantable devices. Trial registration This trial is registered as EUPAS17435. Funding This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Objective Our aims were to examine the effects of heeled shoes on incident knee osteoarthritis (OA) and joint pain. Methods We used longitudinal data from the Chingford 1000 Women Study (Chingford Study), a prospective cohort of women aged 50 years or older. Participants with musculoskeletal disorders and/or a history of knee-related injury/surgery were excluded. Participants were followed for up to 5 years for incident outcomes including 1) radiographic knee OA (RKOA) and 2) joint pain (feet, knees, hips, and back). Footwear data, including ever worn heels of 2 inches or more and daytime/evening hours (per week) spent wearing heeled shoes over five decades (ages 50 years), were available at Year 10 whereas knee radiographs and joint symptom data were also collected at Year 15. Cumulative time spent wearing heeled shoes was calculated for women reporting ever-use of heeled shoes (≥2 inches). Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between exposures and outcomes (from Year 10 to Year 15). Results A total of 356 women were eligible at Year 10 with a median (interquartile range) age of 60 (56-65) years. Compared with non-use, ever-use of heeled shoes (≥2 inches) was not associated with incident RKOA (1.35; 95% confidence interval: 0.56-3.27). No associations were observed between increasing cumulative time spent wearing heels and incident outcomes. Conclusion Compared with the non-use of heeled shoes, ever-use of heels (≥2 inches) was not associated with incident RKOA and incident joint symptoms. Further, increasing cumulative time spent wearing heels was not associated with any of our outcomes.

Objective The effect of physical activity on the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis (OA) is unclear. We undertook this study to examine the relationship between recreational physical activity and incident knee OA outcomes using comparable physical activity and OA definitions. Methods Data were acquired from 6 global, community-based cohorts of participants with and those without knee OA. Eligible participants had no evidence of knee OA or rheumatoid arthritis at baseline. Participants were followed up for 5–12 years for incident outcomes including the following: 1) radiographic knee OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [K/L] grade ≥2), 2) painful radiographic knee OA (radiographic OA with knee pain), and 3) OA-related knee pain. Self-reported recreational physical activity included sports and walking/cycling activities and was quantified at baseline as metabolic equivalents of task (METs) in days per week. Risk ratios (RRs) were calculated and pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis. Secondary analysis assessed the association between physical activity, defined as time (hours per week) spent in recreational physical activity and incident knee OA outcomes. Results Based on a total of 5,065 participants, pooled RR estimates for the association of MET days per week with painful radiographic OA (RR 1.02 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.93–1.12]), radiographic OA (RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.94–1.07]), and OA-related knee pain (RR 1.00 [95% CI 0.96–1.04]) were not significant. Similarly, the analysis of hours per week spent in physical activity also showed no significant associations with all outcomes. Conclusions Our findings suggest that whole-body, physiologic energy expenditure during recreational activities and time spent in physical activity were not associated with incident knee OA outcomes.

Background Joint injury is a major risk factor for osteoarthritis and provides an opportunity to prospectively examine early processes associated with osteoarthritis. We investigated whether predefined baseline demographic and clinical factors, and protein analytes in knee synovial fluid and in plasma or serum, were associated with clinically relevant outcomes at 2 years after knee injury. Methods This longitudinal cohort study recruited individuals aged 16–50 years between Nov 1, 2010, and Nov 28, 2014, across six hospitals and clinics in London, UK. Participants were recruited within 8 weeks of having a clinically significant acute knee injury (effusion and structural injury on MRI), which was typically treated surgically. We measured several predefined clinical variables at baseline (eg, time from injury to sampling, extent and type of joint injury, synovial fluid blood staining, presence of effusion, self-reported sex, age, and BMI), and measured 12 synovial fluid and four plasma or serum biomarkers by immunoassay at baseline and 3 months. The primary outcome was Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS4) at 2 years, adjusted for baseline score, assessed in all patients. Linear and logistic regression models adjusting for predefined covariates were used to assess associations between baseline variables and 2-year KOOS4. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02667756. Findings We enrolled 150 patients at a median of 17 days (range 1–59, IQR 9–26) after knee injury. 123 (82%) were male, with a median age of 25 years (range 16–50, IQR 21–30). 98 (65%) of 150 participants completed a KOOS4 at 2 (or 3) years after enrolment (50 participants were lost to follow-up and two were withdrawn due to adverse events unrelated to study participation); 77 (51%) participants had all necessary variables available and were included in the core variable adjusted analysis. In the 2-year dataset mean KOOS4 improved from 38 (SD 18) at baseline to 79 (18) at 2 years. Baseline KOOS4, medium-to-large knee effusion, and moderate-to-severe synovial blood staining and their interaction significantly predicted 2-year KOOS4 (n=77; coefficient −20·5, 95% CI −34·8 to −6·18; p=0·0060). The only predefined biomarkers that showed independent associations with 2-year KOOS4 were synovial fluid MCP-1 (n=77; −0·015, 0·027 to −0·004 per change in 1 pg/mL units; p=0·011) and IL-6 (n=77; −0·0005, −0·0009 to −0·0001 per change in 1 pg/mL units; p=0·017). These biomarkers, combined with the interaction of effusion and blood staining, accounted for 39% of outcome variability. Two adverse events occurred that were linked to study participation, both at the time of blood sampling (one presyncopal episode, one tenderness and pain at the site of venepuncture). Interpretation The combination of effusion and haemarthrosis was significantly associated with symptomatic outcomes after acute knee injury. The synovial fluid molecular protein response to acute knee injury (best represented by MCP-1 and IL-6) was independently associated with symptomatic outcomes but not with structural outcomes, with the biomarkers overall playing a minor role relative to clinical predictors. The relationship between symptoms and structure after acute knee injury and their apparent dissociation early in this process need to be better understood to make clinical progress. Funding Versus Arthritis, Kennedy Trust for Rheumatology Research, and NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Objective We aimed to study 19-year body mass index (BMI) patterns and their (1) bidirectional relationship with musculoskeletal pain and (2) mortality risk. Study design and Setting We used data from the Chingford study and group-based trajectory modelling to define 19-year BMI patterns. We investigated whether baseline back, hand, hip, and knee pain (as single- and multi-site) predicted 19-year BMI trajectory, and whether 19-year BMI patterns predicted pain in year 20. We explored BMI trajectories and mortality risk over 25 years (life expectancy). Results We included 938 women (mean age: year-1=54, year-20=72) and found seven distinct 19-year BMI trajectories: two normal-weighted (reference), slightly overweight, lower and upper overweight-to-obese, lower and upper obese. BMI patterns capturing the increase overweight-to-obese (BMI 27-34 overtime) were bidirectionally related to knee and multi-site pain. The lower obese pattern (BMI 33-38) was unidirectionally associated with lower limb pain. Women with BMI above 40 had an increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risk. Conclusions For most postmenopausal women, the overweight WHO category was a transition. Two patterns capturing increase overweight-to-obese were mutually related to musculoskeletal pain, i.e., knee and multi-site pain contributed to becoming obese, and trajectories of becoming obese increased the odds of experiencing pain later.

To investigate the association between markers of synovial inflammation and matrix turnover (MRI-based and serum biomarkers) and knee symptoms in established knee osteoarthritis (KOA). This cross-sectional study utilised data from a randomised, multicentre placebo-controlled trial (UK-VIDEO) of vitamin D therapy in symptomatic KOA. Data on serum biomarkers, type III collagen degradation (C3M), metabolite of C-reactive protein (CRPM) and cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP), were available at baseline whilst contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI data were acquired in a subsample at baseline and annually. Knee symptoms were assessed using WOMAC at all visits. We examined the cross-sectional association between knee symptoms and three MRI-based and three serum markers of synovitis and matrix turnover, respectively. A total of 447 participants were included in the serum and 136 participants in the MRI analyses. MRI-defined medial perimeniscal synovitis was positively associated with knee pain and, suprapatellar and medial perimeniscal synovitis with knee function in multivariate analysis. We observed a statistically significant, negative association between a higher concentration of serum C3M and CRPM and knee pain, respectively. Furthermore, the highest CRPM quartile was negatively associated with knee function. Our findings suggest that, in established painful radiographic KOA, MRI-defined medial perimeniscal and suprapatellar synovitis were positively associated with knee symptoms. Serum-based C3M and CRPM markers were negatively associated with knee symptoms. Pain fluctuations are common in KOA and a better understanding of the relationship between markers of synovitis and matrix turnover and knee symptoms would facilitate a more accurate assessment of temporal changes in disease progression.

Aim Develop a prediction model for incident radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis when multiple clinical risk factors are present. Methods This study used secondary analysis from the Chingford 1000 Women Study, a prospective cohort of women aged 45 to 64 years. At baseline, anthropometric, clinical, and lifestyle measured had been collected. Hand radiographs had been taken at baseline and 10 years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence atlas. For the current study, participants with osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2) in any IPJ at baseline were excluded. Risk factors were selected from baseline based on biological plausibility, a published systematic review, and a Delphi study of Hand Surgeons. Incident osteoarthritis was diagnosed at 10 years if ≥ 1 IPJ was Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2. The model was built with logistic regression and elastic net penalisation, and performance assessed through discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (c-slope). Complete case analysis was used. Results Of 1,003 participants, 459 participants were included in this study (median age: 51 years, 202 (44%) with IPJ osteoarthritis at follow-up). Manual occupation (P Conclusions Osteoarthritis at the base of thumb and IPJs might be a continuum of the same disease. Knowledge of these modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors can inform prevention strategies.

Background: Over the past decade, there has been a growth in the use of ankle replacements. Data from national joint registries have shown between-country differences in the utilization of ankle replacement. The reasons for these differences are, however, not well understood. Our aims were to describe and compare the annual incidence of primary ankle replacement between countries and, to examine potential reasons for variation over time. Methods: We used aggregate data and summary statistics on ankle replacements for the period 1993 to 2019 from national joint replacement registries in Australia, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. From the annual recorded counts of procedures, demographic data were extracted on age, sex distribution, and indication(s) for primary ankle replacement. Registry-level summary results were also obtained on data completeness, counts of hospitals/units, and health care providers performing ankle replacements annually and data collection processes (mandatory vs voluntary). Annual ankle replacement incidence for all diagnoses and, by indication categories (osteoarthritis [OA] and rheumatoid arthritis [RA]), were calculated per 100 000 residential population aged ≥18 years. Results: For the period with data from all 6 countries (2010-2015), New Zealand had the largest annual incidence (mean ± SD) of 3.3 ± 0.2 ankle replacement procedures per 100 000 population whereas Finland had the lowest incidence (0.92 replacements). There were no common temporal trends in the utilization of ankle replacements. Over the years studied, OA was the predominant diagnosis in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, whereas RA was the most common indication in Scandinavia. Conclusion: In these 6 countries, we found marked differences in the utilization of ankle replacements. Registry-related factors including data completeness and the number of hospitals/surgeons performing ankle replacements are likely to contribute to the observed between-country differences and need to be carefully considered when interpreting comparisons for this less common site for joint replacement surgery. Level of Evidence: Level III, retrospective study.

Context How different pitching roles affect the risk of arm injury in professional pitchers is currently unclear. Objectives To investigate differences between professional baseball starting and relief pitchers in the hazard of (1) arm injury and (2) elbow and shoulder injury. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Minor League Baseball (MiLB) from 2013 to 2019. Patients or Other Participants Pitchers in MiLB. Main Outcome Measure(s) Pitchers were followed for the entire MiLB season, and athlete-exposures and injuries were recorded. Risk ratios and risk difference were calculated between starting and relieving MiLB pitchers. A Cox survival analysis was then performed in relation to time to arm injury between starting and relieving MiLB pitchers. Subgroup analyses were conducted for elbow and shoulder injuries. Results A total of 297 pitchers were included, with 85 270 player-days recorded. The incidence of arm injuries was 11.4 per 10 000 athlete-exposures. Starting pitchers demonstrated a greater risk ratio (1.2 [95% CI = 1.1, 1.3]), risk difference (13.6 [95% CI = 5.6, 21.6]), and hazard of arm injury (2.4 [95% CI = 1.5, 4.0]) than relief pitchers. No differences were observed for the hazard of elbow injury between starting and relief pitchers (1.9; 95% CI = 0.8, 4.2). Starting pitchers had a greater hazard of shoulder injury than relief pitchers (3.8 [95% CI = 2.0, 7.1]). Conclusions Starting pitchers displayed a 2.4 times greater hazard of arm injury than relief pitchers. Subgroup analyses indicated that starters exhibited a greater hazard of shoulder injury than relievers, but no differences occurred for the hazard of elbow injury. However, due to the wide CIs, these subgroup analyses should be interpreted with caution. Clinicians may need to consider cumulative exposure and fatigue and how these factors relate to different pitching roles when assessing the risk of pitching arm injury.

Background Sport participation has many physical and psychosocial benefits, but there is also an inherent risk of injury, subsequent osteoarthritis and psychological challenges that can negatively impact quality of life (QOL). Considering the multifaceted impacts of sport participation on QOL across the lifespan, there is a need to consolidate and present the evidence on QOL in former sport participants. Objective To evaluate QOL and life satisfaction in former sport participants, and determine what factors are associated with QOL and life satisfaction in this population. Methods Eight electronic databases were systematically searched in July 2018 to retrieve all articles that evaluated QOL or life satisfaction in former sport participants. Two authors independently screened titles/abstracts and full texts, extracted data, and appraised methodological quality using a modified Downs and Black Checklist. Random-effects meta-analysis estimated pooled mean and 95% confidence intervals (Cis) for Mental Component Scores (MCS) and Physical Component Scores (PCS) derived from the SF-12, SF-36, VR-12 and VR-36 measures. MCS and PCS were pooled for all former sport participants, as well as professional- and collegiate-athlete subgroups. Data that were inappropriate for meta-analysis (i.e. EQ-5D, PROMIS and life-satisfaction outcomes) were collated and reported descriptively. Results Seventeen articles evaluated QOL or life satisfaction in a total of 6692 former athletes [eight studies (n = 4255) former professional athletes; six studies (n = 1946) former collegiate athletes; two studies (n = 491) included both] with a mean age ranging from 21 to 66 years. Most studies were cross-sectional (15 of 17 articles) and 12 studies had a moderate risk of bias (n = 1 high-risk, n = 4 low-risk). Unpublished data were provided for five studies. Meta-analysis of seven studies resulted in a pooled PCS mean (95% CI) of 50.0 (46.6–53.3) [former professional athletes from two studies: 46.7 (42.1–51.2), former collegiate athletes from five studies: 51.2 (48.4–53.9)] and a pooled MCS of 51.4 (50.5–52.2) [former professional athletes: 52.7 (51.3–54.2), former collegiate athletes: 50.9 (50.0–51.8)]. Factors associated with worse QOL or life satisfaction in former athletes included involuntary retirement from sport (three studies), collision/high-contact sport compared with low/no-contact sport (three studies), three or more concussions compared with no/fewer concussions (two studies), increased body mass index (BMI) (worse PCS, three studies), and osteoarthritis or musculoskeletal issues (worse PCS and MCS, three studies; worse PCS but not MCS, two studies). Conclusions Former athletes had similar PCS and better MCS, compared to general-population norms. Former athletes with impaired PCS reported better MCS than population norms, highlighting the need to use an instrument that differentiates between physical and mental components of QOL in former sport participants. Factors associated with worse QOL that may explain between-study variation include involuntary retirement, collision/high contact sports, concussion, BMI and osteoarthritis. PROSPERO CRD42018104319. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s40279-019-01163-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a major cause of pain and physical disability in adults, and an increasingly common disease given its associations with aging and a growing obese/overweight population. Paracetamol is widely recommended for analgesia at an early stage in the management of OA, and, although frequently prescribed, evidence suggests the efficacy of paracetamol for OA pain is low. Furthermore, there have been recent concerns over the safety profile of paracetamol, with reports of gastrointestinal, cardiovascular, hepatic and renal adverse events. This narrative review summarizes recent literature on the benefits and harms of paracetamol for OA pain. Data on long-term paracetamol safety are derived largely from observational evidence, and are difficult to interpret given the potential biases of such data. Nonetheless, a considerable degree of toxicity is associated with paracetamol use among the general population, especially at the upper end of standard analgesic doses. Paracetamol is linked to liver function abnormalities and there is evidence for liver failure associated with non-intentional paracetamol overdose. Safety data for paracetamol use in the older population (aged >65 years) are sparse; however, there is some evidence that frail elderly people may have impaired paracetamol clearance. Given that the analgesic benefit of paracetamol in OA joint pain is uncertain and potential safety issues have been raised, more careful consideration of its use is required.

Background: Some controversy exists regarding the safety of intra-articular hyaluronic acid (IAHA) in the management of osteoarthritis (OA). Objective: The objective of this study was to re-assess the safety profile of IAHA in patients with OA, through a comprehensive meta-analysis of randomized, placebo-controlled trials. Methods: A comprehensive literature search was undertaken in the databases MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), and Scopus. Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trials that assessed adverse events (AEs) with IAHA in patients with OA were eligible for inclusion. Authors and/or study sponsors were contacted to obtain the full report of AEs. The primary outcomes were overall severe and serious AEs, as well as the following MedDRA System Organ Class (SOC)-related AEs: gastrointestinal, cardiac, vascular, respiratory, nervous system, skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders, musculoskeletal, renal and urinary disorders, infections and infestations, and hypersensitivity reaction. Results: Database searches initially identified 1481 records. After exclusions according to the selection criteria, 22 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis, and nine studies having adequate data were ultimately included in the meta-analysis. From the studies excluded according to the pre-specified selection criteria, 21 with other pharmacological OA treatments permitted during the trials were a posteriori included in a parallel qualitative synthesis, from which eight studies with adequate data were finally included in a parallel meta-analysis. Since this meta-analysis was designed to assess safety, the exclusion criterion on concomitant anti-OA medication was crucial. However, due to the high number of studies that allowed mainly concomitant oral non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), we decided to include them in a post hoc parallel analysis in order to compare the results from the two analyses. No statistically significant difference in odds was found between IAHA and placebo for all types of SOC-related disorders, except for infections and infestations, for which significantly lower odds were found with IAHA compared with placebo, both overall (odds ratio [OR] = 0.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.40–0.93; I 2 = 0%) and in studies without concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 0.49, 95% CI 0.27–0.89). There were significant increased odds of reporting serious AEs with IAHA compared with placebo, both overall (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.21–2.63; I 2 = 0%) and in studies with concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.10–2.89), but not in studies without concomitant anti-OA medication (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 0.92–3.47). Conclusions: Using the available data on studies without any concomitant anti-OA medication permitted during clinical trials, IAHA seems not to be associated with any safety issue in the management of OA. However, this evidence was associated with only a “low” to “moderate” certainty. A possible association with increased risk of serious AEs, particularly when used with concomitant OA medications, requires further investigation.

Objectives To compare outcomes of total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR) for individuals with RA and OA. Methods We performed a cohort study using routinely collected data. Oxford Knee Score, Oxford Hip Score, and EuroQol 5-dimension 3-level (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaires were collected before and 6 months after surgery. Multivariable regressions were used to estimate the association between diagnosis and post-operative scores after controlling for pre-operative scores and patient characteristics. Results Study cohorts included 2070 OA and 142 RA patients for TKR and 2030 OA and 98 RA patients for THR. Following TKR, the median Oxford Knee Score was 37 [interquartile range (IQR) 29–43] for OA and 36 (27–42) for RA while the median EQ-5D-3L was 0.76 (0.69–1.00) and 0.69 (0.52–0.85), respectively. After THR, the Oxford Hip Score was 42 (IQR 36–46) for OA and 39 (30–44) for RA while the EQ-5D-3L was 0.85 (0.69–1.00) and 0.69 (0.52–1.00), respectively. The estimated effect of RA, relative to OA, on post-operative scores was −0.05 (95% CI −1.57, 1.48) for the Oxford Knee Score, −0.09 (−0.13, −0.06) for the EQ-5D-3L following TKR, −1.35 (−2.93, −0.22) for the Oxford Hip Score, and −0.08 (−0.12, −0.03) for the EQ-5D-3L following THR. Conclusion TKR and THR led to substantial improvements in joint-specific scores and overall quality of life. While diagnosis had no clinically meaningful effect on joint-specific outcomes, improvements in general quality of life were somewhat less for those with RA, which is likely due to the systemic and multijoint nature of rheumatoid disease.

Background and purpose — 1 in 5 patients are dissatisfied following unicompartmental or total knee arthroplasty (UKA or TKA). This may be partly explained by failing to return to desired activity post-arthroplasty. To facilitate return to desired activity, a greater understanding of predictors of return to desired activity in UKA and TKA patients is needed. We compared rates of return to desired activity 12 months following UKA vs. TKA, and identified and compared predictors of return to desired activity 12 months following UKA vs. TKA. Patients and methods — Patients were prospectively recruited from 2 hospitals prior to undergoing UKA or primary TKA. Patients reported preoperatively the activity/activities that were limited due to their knee that they wished to return to after arthroplasty. At 12-months postoperatively, patients reported whether they had returned to these activities (‘return to desired activity’). Preoperative predictors evaluated were age, sex, BMI, education, comorbidities, pain expectations, Oxford Knee Score (OKS), UCLA Activity Score, and EQ-5D. Generalized linear models assessed the relationship between potential predictors and return-to-desired-activity. Results — The response rate of all patients eligible for 12-month follow-up was 74%. TKA patients (n = 575) were older (mean (SD) 70 (9) vs. 67 (10)) with a greater BMI (31 (6) vs. 30 (5)) than patients undergoing UKA (n = 420). 75% of UKA and 59% of TKA patients returned to desired activity. TKA patients had a greater risk of non-return to desired activity than patients undergoing UKA (risk ratio (95% CI) 1.5 (1.2–1.8)). Predictors of non-return to desired activity following UKA were worse OKS (0.96 (0.93–0.99)), higher BMI (1.04 (1.01–1.08)), and worse expectations (1.9 (1.2–2.8)). Predictors of non-return to desired activity following TKA were worse EQ-5D (0.53 (0.33–0.85)) and worse OKS (0.98 (0.96–1.0)). Interpretation — UKA patients were more likely to return to desired activity than TKA patients. Predictors of return to desired activity differed following UKA and TKA. Optimizing selection of arthroplasty procedure based on patient characteristics and targeting predictors of poor outcome may facilitate return to desired activity with potential to enhance postoperative satisfaction.

Background/Aims Population-based studies suggest an association between pain in elderly adults and cognitive impairment. However, the temporal relationship between chronic pain and cognitive decline is uncertain: most studies are cross-sectional or have short follow-up periods. Our aim was to examine the association between two pain phenotypes - bodily pain and multi-joint pain - in middle-life and cognitive impairment in later-life in a prospective cohort study with 23 years’ follow-up. We also set out to examine the association with mortality. In contrast to much previous work, this study has available a comprehensive depth of information on health and pain characteristics over a long follow-up period. Methods Bodily pain and multi-joint pain at 3 timepoints between baseline and year 10 was measured in participants from the Chingford Women’s Study. Secondary analyses were performed on the two dimensions of bodily pain, pain intensity and interference. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association with cognition at year 23: the primary cognitive outcome was Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤28, with a secondary outcome of ≤ 26. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between each pain exposure and all-cause mortality between years 10 and 23. Analyses were adjusted for education, socio-demographic factors, and modifiable risk factors for cognitive impairment including depression and analgesia use. Results 282 (28.1%) and 276 (27.5%) women were included in analyses for cognition and bodily pain and multi-joint pain respectively. Women with severe bodily pain showed a non-significant greater odds of MMSE ≤28 compared to those with no/mild bodily pain (OR 2.56, 95%CI 0.94-6.95, P = 0.07). Those with severe bodily pain had significantly greater odds of MMSE ≤26 (OR 7.31, 95%CI 2.11-25.36, P = 0.002). However, there was no association with multi-joint pain. Secondary analysis of the two dimensions of bodily pain demonstrated that pain interference displayed a stronger relationship with both MMSE thresholds compared to pain intensity. Women with severe bodily pain and repeated multi-joint pain each had higher crude all-cause mortality, but this was not statistically significant (log-rank test for trend, P = 0.11 & 0.068, respectively). Further adjustment left the association with both pain exposures and all-cause mortality entirely attenuated. Conclusion After 13 years’ follow-up, severe bodily pain but not multi-joint pain in mid-life was associated with subsequent cognitive impairment, determined by MMSE ≤26. Women with severe bodily pain and multi-joint pain had higher crude all-cause mortality rate, but this was not statistically significant after adjustment. Pain interference displayed a stronger association with cognitive impairment; this may reflect the impact of pain on functional status. This study represents the first time the consequences of mid-life pain on later life cognition were examined. Chronic pain, which is largely untreated, may thus represent a modifiable cause of cognitive impairment. Disclosure E. Kelleher: None. S. Hawley: None. A. Delmestri: None. N. Arden: None. I. Tracey: None. A. Soni: None.

Background/Aims Total hip arthroplasty is increasingly offered at younger ages whilst simultaneously people are being encouraged to work to older ages. Ultimately, more people will expect to need to return to work post-THA. We explored the rates of return to work and the trajectories of remaining in work post-THA, with particular attention to the physical demands of the post-operative job. Methods Patients from the Geneva Hip Arthroplasty Registry and the Clinical Outcomes of Arthroplasty (COASt) study who underwent unilateral THA at least 5 years previously were identified. Participants were eligible if they were Results Of the 1,453 eligible people, 817 (56%) returned the questionnaire. Post-operation 508 people returned to work (RTW) of whom: 446 were working at the time of the THA; 46 had stopped working pre-operatively; and 16 did not provide pre-operative work status. The median follow-up post-THA was 7.5 years (IQR 6.2 -12.1). Detailed occupational exposure information was available for 405 of the 508 who returned to work (203 men and 202 women). After adjusting for age at operation, sex, body mass index, time to reach best post-operative function, cohort and age at follow-up, reporting leaving a job because of problems with the replaced hip was strongly associated with: occupational standing > 4 hours/day (HR: 3.37, 95%CI 1.44-7.86), kneeling/squatting (HR: 95%CI 3.67, 1.61-8.40) and carrying/lifting> 10 kg (HR: 5.68, 95%CI 2.37-13.62) . Mutually adjusted models showed that the effect of lifting/carrying weights in excess of 10 kg remained statistically significant (p < 0.01). Conclusion These findings suggest that some jobs may be more difficult to manage post-THA, in particular if they involve prolonged standing, kneeling/squatting or lifting heavy weights. Subject to replication in other cohorts, these findings may be important to discuss with patients at the time of surgery and could imply a particular role for post-THA rehabilitation amongst people needing to RTW in physically-demanding jobs. Disclosure E. Zaballa: None. E. Harris: None. A. Lübbeke-Wolff: None. C. Cooper: None. N. Arden: None. G. Ntani: None. K. Walker-Bone: None.

Objectives Synovitis in symptomatic knee OA (KOA) is common and is associated with joint symptoms. Optimal synovial measurement on MRI is, however, unclear. Our aims were to examine the relationship between MRI measures of synovitis and knee symptoms in symptomatic KOA. Methods Data from a randomized, multicentre, placebo-controlled trial (UK-VIDEO) of vitamin-D therapy in symptomatic KOA were utilized. Participants reported knee symptoms using WOMAC at baseline and annually. On contrast-enhanced (CE) MRI, synovial thickness was measured using established, semi-quantitative methods whilst synovial tissue volume (STV) was assessed as absolute STV (aSTV) and relative to the width of femoral condyle (rSTV). STV of the infrapatellar region was also assessed. Associations between synovial measures and symptoms were analysed using multiple linear regression modelling. Results No linear association was observed between knee symptoms and synovitis thickness scores. Whole-joint aSTV (0.88, 95% CI: 0.17, 1.59) and infrapatellar aSTV (5.96, 95% CI: 1.22, 10.7) were positively associated with knee pain. Whole-joint rSTV had a stronger association with pain (7.96, 95% CI: 2.60, 13.33) and total scores (5.63, 95% CI: 0.32, 10.94). Even stronger associations were found for infrapatellar rSTV with pain (55.47, 95% CI: 19.99, 90.96), function (38.59, 95% CI: 2.1, 75.07) and total scores (41.64, 95% CI: 6.56, 76.72). Conclusions Whole-joint and site-specific infrapatellar STV measures on CE-MRI were associated with knee pain, respectively. Volumes relative to the size of the femoral condyle may be promising outcome measures in KOA trials.

Humeral torsion (HT) has been linked to pitching arm injury risk after controlling for shoulder range of motion. Currently measuring HT uses expensive equipment, which inhibits clinical assessment. Developing an HT predictive model can aid clinical baseball arm injury risk examination. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop and internally validate an HT prediction model using standard clinical tests and measures in professional baseball pitchers.An 11-year (2009-2019) prospective professional baseball cohort was used for this study. Participants were included if they were able to participate in all practices and competitions and were under a Minor League Baseball contract. Preseason shoulder range of motion (external rotation [ER], internal rotation [IR], horizontal adduction [HA]) and HT were collected each season. Player age, arm dominance, arm injury history, and continent of origin were also collected. Examiners were blinded to arm dominance. An a priori power analysis determined that 244 players were needed for accurate prediction models. Missing data was low (3%); thus, a complete case analysis was performed. Model development followed the transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis (TRIPOD) recommendations. Regression models with restricted cubic splines were performed. Following primary model development, bootstrapping with 2000 iterations were performed to reduce overfitting and assess optimism shrinkage. Prediction model performance was assessed through root mean square error (RMSE), RA total of 407 professional pitchers (age: 23.2 [standard deviation 2.4] years, left-handed: 17%; arm history prevalence: 21%) participated. Predictors with the highest influence within the model include IR (0.4, 95% CI 0.3, 0.5; P.001), ER (-0.3, 95% CI -0.4, -0.2; P.001), HA (0.3, 95% CI 0.2, 0.4; P.001), and arm dominance (right-handed: -1.9, 95% CI -3.6, -0.1; P = .034). Final model RMSE was 12, REvery 3° of IR explained 1° of HT. Every 3° of ER explained 1° less of HT, and every 7° of HA explained 1° of HT. Right-handers had 2° less HT. Models demonstrated good predictive performance. This predictive model can be used by clinicians to infer HT using standard clinical test and measures. These data can be used to enhance professional baseball arm injury examination.

Objective: To identify post-operative risk factors for the development of chronic pain after knee replacement. Design: Primary knee replacements in persons aged ≥18 years between April 2008 and December 2016 from the National Joint Registry, linked with English Hospital Episode Statistics data, and Patient Reported Outcome Measures. The outcome was chronic pain 6-months after surgery (Oxford Knee pain score). Logistic regression modelling identified risk factors for chronic pain outcome. Results: 258,386 patients; 56.7% women; average age 70.1 years (SD ±8.8 years). 43,702 (16.9%) were identified as having chronic pain 6-months post-surgery. Within 3 months of surgery complications were uncommon: intra-operative complications 1,224 (0.5%); ≥1 medical complication 6,073 (2.4%)); 32,930 (12.7%) hospital readmissions; 3,848 (1.5%) re-operation; 835 (0.3%) revision. Post-surgical risk factors of chronic pain were: mechanical complication of prosthesis odds ratio (OR) 1.56 (95% Confidence Interval 1.35, 1.80); surgical site infection OR 1.13 (0.99, 1.29); readmission OR 1.47 (1.42, 1.52); re-operation OR 1.39 (1.27, 1.51); revision OR 1.92 (1.64, 2.25); length of stay e.g. 6+ vs. Conclusions: We identified a number of post-operative factors relating to the operation and early recovery that are associated with chronic pain following primary knee replacement. The model had weak discriminatory ability indicating that there remains considerable unexplained variability in chronic pain outcome.

Bisphosphonates are contraindicated in patients with stage 4+ chronic kidney disease. However, they are widely used to prevent fragility fractures in stage 3 chronic kidney disease, despite a lack of good-quality data on their effects.The aims of each work package were as follows. Work package 1: to study the relationship between bisphosphonate use and chronic kidney disease progression. Work package 2: to study the association between using bisphosphonates and fracture risk. Work package 3: to determine the risks of hypocalcaemia, hypophosphataemia, acute kidney injury and upper gastrointestinal events associated with using bisphosphonates. Work package 4: to investigate the association between using bisphosphonates and changes in bone mineral density over time.This was a new-user cohort study design with propensity score matching.Data were obtained from UK NHS primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database) and linked hospital inpatient records (Hospital Episode Statistics) for work packages 1-3 and from the Danish Odense University Hospital Databases for work package 4.Patients registered in the data sources who had at least one measurement of estimated glomerular filtration rate of 45 ml/minute/1.73 mBisphosphonate use, identified from primary care prescriptions (for work packages 1-3) or pharmacy dispensations (for work package 4), was the main exposure.Work package 1: chronic kidney disease progression, defined as stage worsening or starting renal replacement. Work package 2: hip fracture. Work package 3: acute kidney injury, hypocalcaemia and hypophosphataemia identified from Hospital Episode Statistics, and gastrointestinal events identified from Clinical Practice Research Datalink or Hospital Episode Statistics. Work package 4: annualised femoral neck bone mineral density percentage change.Bisphosphonate use was associated with an excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.24) in work package 1, but did not increase the probability of other safety outcomes in work package 3. The results from work package 2 suggested that bisphosphonate use increased fracture risk (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.13 to 1.39) for hip fractures, but sensitivity analyses suggested that this was related to unresolved confounding. Conversely, work package 4 suggested that bisphosphonates improved bone mineral density, with an average 2.65% (95% confidence interval 1.32% to 3.99%) greater gain in femoral neck bone mineral density per year in bisphosphonate users than in matched non-users.Confounding by indication was a concern for the clinical effectiveness (i.e. work package 2) data. Bias analyses suggested that these findings were due to inappropriate adjustment for pre-treatment risk. work packages 3 and 4 were based on small numbers of events and participants, respectively.Bisphosphonates were associated with a 12% excess risk of chronic kidney disease progression in participants with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. No other safety concerns were identified. Bisphosphonate therapy increased bone mineral density, but the research team failed to demonstrate antifracture effectiveness.Randomised controlled trial data are needed to demonstrate antifracture efficacy in patients with stage 3B+ chronic kidney disease. More safety analyses are needed to characterise the renal toxicity of bisphosphonates in stage 3A chronic kidney disease, possibly using observational data.This study is registered as EUPAS10029.This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full inBisphosphonates are used to prevent fractures in people with fragile bones. People with chronic kidney disease have a high risk of fracturing, but the safety and effectiveness of bisphosphonates in severe chronic kidney disease is unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the benefits (e.g. bone strength improvement and fracture prevention) and the risks of unwanted effects associated with bisphosphonates for people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease.Anonymised primary and secondary care electronic medical records data from the UK NHS were used, as well as a Danish equivalent that included bone density scans. Anyone in these databases with a measure of reduced kidney function that suggested moderate to severe chronic kidney disease was eligible, which was 220,000 people from the UK. Over 20,000 of them used bisphosphonates. Bisphosphonate users were matched to non-users with similar age, sex and other characteristics.Bisphosphonate users had a 12% higher risk of their chronic kidney disease getting worse than non-users. Their risks of other side effects, such as acute kidney injuries and gastrointestinal problems, did not change. Bisphosphonate users had a 25% higher risk of fractures than non-users in the UK database, probably because the matching methods did not create similar-enough groups of users and non-users. However, it was found that bisphosphonate improved bone density in the Danish database. Bone density is a proxy for bone strength, so better bone density should mean fewer fractures.These results suggest that bisphosphonate therapy may make moderate to severe chronic kidney disease worse. More studies are needed on how bisphosphonates affect milder chronic kidney disease. Bisphosphonates were associated with better bone strength, but it could not be demonstrated that they reduced fracture risk. More data are required, probably from a placebo-controlled trial, to determine whether or not bisphosphonates prevent fractures in people with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease and whether or not this is worth the risk of their chronic kidney disease worsening.

Background Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic joint disease, with increasing global burden of disability and healthcare utilisation. Recent meta-analyses have shown a range of effects of OA on mortality, reflecting different OA definitions and study methods. We seek to overcome limitations introduced when using aggregate results by gathering individual participant-level data (IPD) from international observational studies and standardising methods to determine the association of knee OA with mortality in the general population. Methods Seven community-based cohorts were identified containing knee OA-related pain, radiographs, and time-to-mortality, six of which were available for analysis. A two-stage IPD meta-analysis framework was applied: (1) Cox proportional hazard models assessed time-to-mortality of participants with radiographic OA (ROA), OA-related pain (POA), and a combination of pain and ROA (PROA) against pain and ROA-free participants; (2) hazard ratios (HR) were then pooled using the Hartung–Knapp modification for random-effects meta-analysis. Findings 10,723 participants in six cohorts from four countries were included in the analyses. Multivariable models (adjusting for age, sex, race, BMI, smoking, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes) showed a pooled HR, compared to pain and ROA-free participants, of 1.03 (0.83, 1.28) for ROA, 1.35 (1.12, 1.63) for POA, and 1.37 (1.22, 1.54) for PROA. Discussion Participants with POA or PROA had a 35–37% increased association with reduced time-to-mortality, independent of confounders. ROA showed no association with mortality, suggesting that OA-related knee pain may be driving the association with time-to-mortality. Funding Versus Arthritis Centre for Sport, Exercise and Osteoarthritis and Osteoarthritis Research Society International.

OBJECTIVES The BRAIN-Q is a tool aimed at maximising the accuracy and minimising measurement error for retrospectively assessing concussions. This paper reports the agreement of the BRAIN-Q tool when compared to extant questionnaire questions, and its reproducibility when compared with its telephonic version (tBRAIN-Q). METHODS The BRAIN-Q entails a 3-stage process: defining a concussion, creating a visual timeline with life events, and establishing detailed characteristics for each reported concussion. It was designed to be administered in-person by trained personnel, and was used in the BRAIN study. Its performance was compared with the MSK study, which previously collected a few questions in a broader self-administered questionnaire, and with the tBRAIN-Q Recall, its telephonic version. RESULTS In total, 101 participants were included, of whom 9 were re-assessed with the tBRAIN-Q. The agreement of the BRAIN-Q with the muscle skeletal-questionnaire for rugby-related concussion was 86.7% (κ=0.6). Rugby-related concussion with loss of consciousness showed lower agreement (82.0%; κ=0.6). The comparison between the BRAIN-Q and the tBRAIN-Q showed good reproducibility. CONCLUSIONS The BRAIN-Q is a relatively easy tool to administer in face-to-face assessments, and it showed optimal reproducibility. It includes a well-established definition of concussion, and is used to collect detailed information on each concussion, allowing for a number of subgroup analyses (e.g., by severity, age, or context). The BRAIN-Q is easily adaptable to other sporting settings.

IntroductionRugby football (Union and League) provides physical activity (PA) with related physical and mental health benefits. However, as a collision sport, rugby research and media coverage predominantly focus on injuries in elite players while the overall impact on health and well-being remains unclear. This study aims to provide a greater understanding of the risks and benefits of rugby participation in a diverse sample of men and women, current and former rugby Union and League players from recreational to the elite level of play. We will explore: (1) joint-specific injuries and concussion; (2) joint pain and osteoarthritis (OA); (3) medical and mental health conditions; (4) PA and sedentary behaviour and (5) well-being (quality of life, flourishing and resilience).Methods and analysisThe Rugby Health and Well-being Study is designed in two phases: (1) a UK-wide cross-sectional survey and (2) cross-validation using health register data from Scotland. Participants will be at least 16 years old, current or former rugby players who have played rugby for at least one season. We will report standardised, level of play-, sex- and age-stratified prevalence of joint injury, concussion, medical conditions and PA. We will describe injury/concussion prevention expectations and protective equipment use. Rugby-related factors associated with injury, pain, OA, PA, health and well-being will be explored in regression models. We will compare joint pain intensity and duration, elements of pain perception and well-being between recreational and elite players and further investigate these associations in regression models while controlling for confounding variables. In the second phase, we will validate self-reported with health register data, and provide further information on healthcare use.Ethics and disseminationThe Yorkshire and the Humber—Leeds East Research Ethics Committee (REC reference: 19/HY/0377) has approved this study (IRAS project ID 269424). The results will be disseminated through scientific publications, conferences and social media.

Bisphosphonates are the first-line treatment for preventing fractures in osteoporosis patients. However, their use is contraindicated or to be used with caution in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, primarily because of a lack of information about their safety and effectiveness. We aimed to investigate the safety of oral bisphosphonates in patients with moderate to severe CKD, using primary-care electronic records from two cohorts, CPRD GOLD (1997-2016) and SIDIAP (2007-2015) in the UK and Catalonia, respectively. Both databases were linked to hospital records. SIDIAP was also linked to end-stage renal disease registry data. Patients with CKD stages 3b to 5, based on two or more estimated glomerular filtration rate measurements less than 45 mL/min/1.73 m2 , aged 40 years or older were identified. New bisphosphonate users were propensity score-matched with up to five non-users to minimize confounding within this population. Our primary outcome was CKD stage worsening (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline or renal replacement therapy). Secondary outcomes were acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, and severe hypocalcemia. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression and Fine and Gray sub-HRs were calculated for competing risks. We matched 2447 bisphosphonate users with 8931 non-users from CPRD and 1399 users with 6547 non-users from SIDIAP. Bisphosphonate use was associated with greater risk of CKD progression in CPRD (sub-HR [95% CI]: 1.14 [1.04, 1.26]) and SIDIAP (sub-HR: 1.15 [1.04, 1.27]). No risk differences were found for acute kidney injury, gastrointestinal bleeding/ulcers, or hypocalcemia. Hence, we can conclude a modest (15%) increased risk of CKD progression was identified in association with bisphosphonate use. No other safety concerns were identified. Our findings should be considered before prescribing bisphosphonates to patients with moderate to severe CKD. © 2020 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Background:Hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic, progressive disease, commonly affecting middle aged women. OA at the interphalangeal joints (IPJs) or the thumb base are considered different disease subsets (1). Few studies have investigated individual risk factors for IPJ OA progression (2). Prediction models can be used to calculate overall disease risk from multiple risk factors. This can guide prevention and treatment options.Objectives:Develop and internally validate a prediction model for IPJ OA progression.Methods:Data from the Chingford 1000 Women Study (Chingford Study), the largest population-based cohort worldwide assessing hand OA, was used. It is representative of the middle-aged female population in the United Kingdom (3). At baseline, 1,003 women aged 45 to 64 years’ old were recruited, and 693 measurements taken. Hand radiographs were taken at baseline and after ten years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) atlas (inter-observer correlation: ≥0.7 (4)).For the current study, participants must have had OA (KL ≥2 in ≥1 IPJ) on baseline hand radiographs. Participants with KL 4 in all 16 IPJs at baseline were excluded. Risk factors from the Chingford Study at baseline were selected by biological plausibility, literature evidence (2), and hand surgeons‘ consensus (5): age (years), occupation (manual versus non manual), OA in ≥1 thumb base (KL ≥2 versus KL2), family history of hand OA (yes versus no). The outcome was defined on an ordinal scale for the number of IPJs (up to >5 IPJs) with OA progression (increase by KL ≥1), at ten years’.The prediction model was developed using a penalized proportional odds logistic regression. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were reported for each risk factor. The model was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap iterations. Model performance was assessed for discrimination (C-statistic), and calibration (C-slope). 3.5% of data was missing, and complete case analysis was used.Results:699 women had baseline hand radiographs: 38 were unreadable, 459 had no IPJ OA. Seven participants had missing data (occupation: 5, BMI: 1, family history: 1) and were excluded. 195 participants were included this study. Median age at baseline was 59 (interquartile range: 8) years.181 (92.8%) participants had OA progression at 10 years (Figure 1). Thumb base OA (odds ratio: 1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)) was most strongly associated with IPJ OA progression (Table 1). C-statistic was 0.57, and calibration slope was 1.38 for the optimism-corrected model.Table 1.Odds ratios for risk factorsRisk factorOdds ratio (95% confidence interval)Age (years)1.02 (0.99 to 1.06)Occupation (manual versus non manual)0.88 (0.60 to 1.29)Thumb base OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥2 versus 1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)Family history of hand OA (yes versus no)1.03 (0.72 to 1.45)Body mass index (kg/m2)1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)OA: OsteoarthritisConclusion:More stringent cut-offs for OA progression would be clinically useful. It was only weakly possible to predict which participants with IPJ OA would progress. This suggests that other risk factors, such as gender, ethnicity and genetics, may be predominant.Figure 1.Hand interphalangeal joints with osteoarthritis progression (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥1) at 10 years’ follow upReferences:[1]Kloppenburg M, et al. Research in hand osteoarthritis: time for reappraisal and demand for new strategies. Ann Rheum Dis. 2007;66(9):1157-61.[2]Shah K, et al. Risk factors for the progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis: a systematic review. Rheumatol Int. 2020;40(11):1781-1792.[3]Hart DJ, Spector TD. The relationship of obesity, fat distribution and osteoarthritis in women in the general population: the Chingford Study. J Rheumatol. 1993;20:331-335.[4]Hart DJ, et al. Reliability and reproducibility of grading radiographs for osteoarthritis of the hand. Br J Rheum. 1993;32:S1.[5]Shah K, et al. Delphi consensus of risk factors for development and progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis. J Hand Surg Eur Vol. 2019;44(10):1089-1090.Acknowledgements:We would like to thank all of the participants of The Chingford 1000 Women Study, Professor Tim Spector, Dr Deborah Hart, Dr Alan Hakim, Maxine Daniels, Alison Turner, James van Santen and Julie Damnjanovic for their time and dedication.Disclosure of Interests:Karishma Shah: None declared, Garrett Bullock: None declared, Alan Silman: None declared, Dominic Furniss: None declared, Nigel Arden Consultant of: Receives personal fees from Pfizer/Lily for consultancy outside the scope of this work, Grant/research support from: Receives grant from Merck outside the scope of this work, Gary Collins: None declared

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a heterogeneous disease associated with substantial effects on quality of life, and its clinical management is difficult. Among the several available guidelines for the management of knee OA, those from OARSI and ESCEO were updated in 2019. Here, we examine the similarities and differences between these two guidelines and provide a narrative to help guide health-care providers through the complexities of non-surgical management of knee OA. OARSI and ESCEO both recommend education, structured exercise and weight loss as core treatments, topical NSAIDs as first-line treatments and oral NSAIDs and intra-articular injections for persistent pain. Low-dose, short-term acetaminophen, pharmaceutical grade glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate are recommended by ESCEO whereas OARSI strongly recommends against their use (including all glucosamine and chondroitin formulations). Despite this difference, the two guidelines are consistent in the majority of their recommendations and provide useful treatment recommendations for individuals with OA and health-care providers.

Radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) is most prevalent in the hand. The association of hand injury with pain or OA is unclear. The objective was to describe the relationship between hand injury and ipsilateral pain and OA in cricketers. Data from former and current cricketers aged ≥ 30 years was used. Data included history of cricket-related hand/finger injury leading to > 4 weeks of reduced exercise, hand/finger joint pain on most days of the last month, self-reported history of physician-diagnosed hand/finger OA. Logistic regression assessed the relationship between injury with hand pain (in former cricketers) and with OA (in all cricketers), adjusted for age, seasons played, playing standard. Of 1893 participants (844 former cricketers), 16.9% reported hand pain, 4.3% reported OA. A history of hand injury increased the odds of hand pain (OR (95% CI) 2.2, 1.4 to 3.6). A history of hand injury also had increased odds of hand OA (3.1, 2.1 to 4.7). Cricket-related hand injury was related to an increased odds of hand pain and OA. This highlights the importance of hand injury prevention strategies within cricket. The high prevalence of hand pain is concerning, and further research is needed to determine the impacts of hand pain.

Objective The study aim was to determine whether lifetime occupation was associated with the presence of radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) of the first metatarsophalangeal joint (MTPJ) in women. Method Data were collected from the prospective, population-based Chingford 1000 Women study. This cohort of women, aged 45–64 years at inception, was established in 1989 from a single general practice in Chingford, UK. Data has subsequently been collected repeatedly. Data from baseline, year six and year ten was used for the purposes of this cross-sectional study. The primary outcome was the presence of dorsal view ROA of the first MTPJ. The main exposure was lifetime occupation, categorised according to levels of occupation previously defined via international consensus: 1. Sedentary, 2. Light, 3. Light manual, 4. Heavy manual. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to quantify the relationship between lifetime occupation type and the presence of ROA of the first MTPJ, adjusting for age, body mass index and lifetime high-heeled footwear use as potential interactive variables for each decade. Results Data for 209 women were included within this study. The mean (SD) age was 57 (±5.2) years. Predominant lifetime occupation was reported as sedentary by 51.7%, as light by 0%, as light manual by 33.5% and as heavy manual by 14.8% of participants. There were no statistical associations between lifetime occupation type and the presence of ROA of the first MTPJ in either the unadjusted (OR = 0.99, CI = 0.78–1.26,P = 0.96) partially adjusted (for age and BMI; OR = 1.00, CI = 0.78–1.29, P = 0.99) or fully adjusted models (for age, BMI and lifetime high heel footwear use for each decade of working life (OR = 1.02, CI = 0.79–1.31, P = 0.91); high-heel footwear use up to 20s (OR = 0.83, CI = 0.71–1.31, P = 0.83); high-heel footwear use in 20–30s (OR = 1.00, CI = 0.75–1.3, P = 0.98); high-heel footwear use in 30–40s (OR = 1.00, CI = 0.70–1.42, P = 0.99); high-heel footwear use in 40–50s (OR = 0.90, CI = 0.58–1.40, P = 0.65); high-heel footwear use in 50s (OR = 0.63,CI = 0.36–1.09, P = 0.10). Conclusions The findings suggest that lifetime occupation is not associated with the presence of ROA of the fist metatarsophalangeal joint. There does not appear to be any interactive effect between lifetime occupation, lifetime high-heel footwear use, age or BMI and ROA of the first MTPJ. In later life a positive trend towards increased ROA in those who reported lifetime high-heel footwear use was noted and this may be worthy of further research.

Osteoarthritis subgroups/phenotypes, based on pain experience over time, inform on symptom development and delivery of treatment options and open a new avenue toward personalized medicine., Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is a heterogeneous disease, and identification of its subgroups/phenotypes can improve patient treatment and drug development. We aimed to identify homogeneous OA subgroups/phenotypes using pain development over time; to understand the interplay between pain and functional limitation in time course; and to investigate subgroups' responses to available pharmacological and surgical treatments. We used group-based trajectory modelling to identify pain trajectories in the phase-3 VIDEO trial (n = 474, 3-year follow-up) and also in the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort study (n = 4796, 9-year follow-up). We extended trajectory models by (1) fitting dual trajectories to investigate the interplay between pain and functional limitation over time, and (2) including analgesic use as a time-varying covariate. Also, we investigated the relationship between trajectory groups and knee replacement in regression models. We identified 4 pain trajectory groups in the trial and 6 in the cohort. These overlapped and led us to define 4 OA phenotypes: low-fluctuating, mild-increasing, moderate-treatment-sensitive, and severe-treatment-insensitive pain. Over time, functional knee limitation followed the same trajectory as pain with almost complete concordance (94.3%) between pain and functional limitation trajectory groups. Notably, we identified a phenotype with severe pain that did not benefit from available treatments, and another one most likely to benefit from knee replacement. Thus, knee OA subgroups/phenotypes can be identified based on patients' pain experiences in studies with long and regular follow-up. We provided a robust approach, reproducible between different study designs, which informs clinicians about symptom development and delivery of treatment options and opens a new avenue toward personalized medicine in OA.

Objective Radiographic hand OA affects one in five adults. Symptomatic hand OA can result in functional impairment, pain and reduced quality of life. A prevalent form of hand OA is IP joint OA, however prognostic factors for IP joint OA remain poorly understood. This systematic review aimed to identify prognostic factors for IP joint OA, and to summarize the diagnostic criteria for IP joint OA in prognostic studies. Methods EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus and The Cochrane Library were searched from inception until 19 February 2020 (PROSPERO CRD42019116782). Eligible studies described diagnostic criteria defining IP joint OA, and assessed potential prognostic factors for IP joint OA. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool and a best evidence synthesis was used. Results Eighteen studies were included (risk of bias: eight high, three moderate, seven low). All defined OA radiographically, and three studies incorporated clinical symptoms into their definition of OA. Forty-nine potential prognostic factors were assessed. Eight were prognostic: older age in women, female gender (both moderate evidence); family history of Heberden’s nodes, Kashin–Beck disease, older age in men, dental occupation in men, finger fracture, parity (all limited evidence). Higher BMI in women (limited evidence) was prognostic for symptomatic radiographic OA. No prognostic factors for symptomatic OA were identified. Conclusion IP joint OA is most commonly defined radiographically, yet criteria were heterogeneous. Eight prognostic factors for radiographic IP joint OA and one for symptomatic radiographic IP joint OA were identified, all with limited or moderate evidence. Further studies on causality and on prognostic pathways are needed.