Search

ObjectiveAtrial fibrillation (AF) is common and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. We aimed to systematically review and meta-analyse multivariable prediction models derived and/or validated in electronic health records (EHRs) and/or administrative claims databases for the prediction of incident AF in the community.MethodsOvid Medline and Ovid Embase were searched for records from inception to 23 March 2021. Measures of discrimination were extracted and pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool and certainty in effect estimates by Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation.ResultsEleven studies met inclusion criteria, describing nine prediction models, with four eligible for meta-analysis including 9 289 959 patients. The CHADS (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75, Diabetes mellitus, prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack) (summary c-statistic 0.674; 95% CI 0.610 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.526–0.815), CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age>75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65–74, Sex category) (summary c-statistic 0.679; 95% CI 0.620 to 0.736; 95% PI 0.531–0.811) and HATCH (Hypertension, Age, stroke or Transient ischemic attack, Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Heart failure) (summary c-statistic 0.669; 95% CI 0.600 to 0.732; 95% PI 0.513–0.803) models resulted in a c-statistic with a statistically significant 95% PI and moderate discriminative performance. No model met eligibility for inclusion in meta-analysis if studies at high risk of bias were excluded and certainty of effect estimates was ‘low’. Models derived by machine learning demonstrated strong discriminative performance, but lacked rigorous external validation.ConclusionsModels externally validated for prediction of incident AF in community-based EHR demonstrate moderate predictive ability and high risk of bias. Novel methods may provide stronger discriminative performance.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42021245093.

Purpose Treatment of typical atrial flutter (AFL) with cavo-tricuspid isthmus (CTI) ablation is associated with a high occurrence rate of new onset atrial fibrillation (AF) during follow-up. There are data to support the addition of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) to CTI ablation in patients with both AF and AFL, but the role of cryoballoon PVI only, with no CTI ablation, in AFL patients with no prior documentation of AF has not been studied. Methods CRAFT is an international, prospective, randomised, open with blinded assessment, multicentre superiority study comparing radiofrequency CTI ablation and cryoballoon PVI in patients with typical AFL. Participants with typical AFL are randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either treatment arm, with patients randomised to PVI not receiving CTI ablation. Post-procedural cardiac monitoring is performed using an implantable loop recorder. The primary endpoint is time to first recurrence of sustained symptomatic atrial arrhythmia. Key secondary endpoints include (1) total arrhythmia burden at 12 months, (2) time to first episode of AF lasting ≥ 2 min, (3) time to recurrence of AFL or AT and (4) procedural and fluoroscopy times. The primary safety endpoint is the composite of death, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, cardiac tamponade requiring drainage, atrio-oesophageal fistula, requirement for a permanent pacemaker, serious vascular complications requiring intervention or delaying discharge and persistent phrenic nerve palsy lasting > 24 h. Conclusion This study compares the outcomes of 2 different approaches to typical AFL—the conventional ‘substrate’-based strategy of radiofrequency CTI ablation versus a novel ‘trigger’-based strategy of cryoballoon PVI. Trial registration (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03401099)