1. Causal nexus between crude oil and US corporate bonds
- Author
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David Roubaud, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Elie Bouri, and Jose Areola Hernandez
- Subjects
Economics and Econometrics ,050208 finance ,business.industry ,Bond ,05 social sciences ,Asset allocation ,Monetary economics ,Investment (macroeconomics) ,Credit spread (options) ,Granger causality ,0502 economics and business ,Economics ,Bond market ,050207 economics ,Volatility (finance) ,business ,Finance ,Risk management - Abstract
This study examines the Granger causal flow from implied oil volatility to US high-yield and investment-grade corporate bonds. The results show that the Granger causality differs over investment time horizons, with evidence of a more lasting effect for high-yield bonds. The oil price crash of mid-2014 intensifies the causal effect from oil price volatility to the high-yield bond market and its energy segment. Further analyses show that the US default risk and credit spread heterogeneously drive causalities from oil to high-yield and investment-grade bonds. These findings are useful to credit market participants for risk management and the design of appropriate asset allocation strategy. They are also important for policymakers regarding policy and regulatory formulations to manage the effects of volatility transmission.
- Published
- 2021