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Rationale Recent studies have revealed that the lung microbiota of critically ill patients is altered and predicts clinical outcomes. The incidence of invasive fungal infections, namely, invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA), in immunocompromised patients is increasing, but the clinical significance of variations in lung bacterial communities is unknown. Objectives To define the contribution of the lung microbiota to the development and course of IPA. Methods and measurements We performed an observational cohort study to characterise the lung microbiota in 104 immunocompromised patients using bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing on bronchoalveolar lavage samples sampled on clinical suspicion of infection. Associations between lung dysbiosis in IPA and pulmonary immunity were evaluated by quantifying alveolar cytokines and chemokines and immune cells. The contribution of microbial signatures to patient outcome was assessed by estimating overall survival. Main results Patients diagnosed with IPA displayed a decreased alpha diversity, driven by a markedly increased abundance of the Staphylococcus, Escherichia, Paraclostridium and Finegoldia genera and a decreased proportion of the Prevotella and Veillonella genera. The overall composition of the lung microbiome was influenced by the neutrophil counts and associated with differential levels of alveolar cytokines. Importantly, the degree of bacterial diversity at the onset of IPA predicted the survival of infected patients. Conclusions Our results reveal the lung microbiota as an understudied source of clinical variation in patients at risk of IPA and highlight its potential as a diagnostic and therapeutic target in the context of respiratory fungal diseases. This work was supported by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) (PTDC/SAU-SER/29635/2017 to CC and PTDC/MED-GEN/28778/2017 to AC). Additional support was provided by FCT (UIDB/50026/2020 and UIDP/50026/2020); the Northern Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the Portugal 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) (NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000013 and NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000023); the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement number 847507 (to AC); and the “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434) and FCT under the agreement LCF/PR/HR17/52190003 (to AC). Individual support was provided by FCT (SFRH/BD/136814/2018 to SMG, CEECIND/03628/2017 to AC and CEECIND/04058/2018 to CC). The TG group acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for grant PGC2018-099921-B-I00, cofounded by the ERDF, the CERCA Programme/Generalitat de Catalunya, the Catalan Research Agency (AGAUR) SGR423, the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under grant agreement ERC-2016-724173 and an INB Grant (PT17/0009/0023—ISCIII-SGEFI/ERDF).

International audience; Mediterranean soil resources are heavily affected by water erosion. There is a need for anticipating the potential impact of land-use change at the catchment scale, considering a range of contrasted possible changes, in order to prepare a relevant adaptation strategy. While participatory scenario approaches are useful for unveiling the diversity of possible futures, their outputs generally take the form of narratives that may be difficult to relate to biophysical models used for simulating soil and water processes. We addressed this challenge by developing a methodology combining narrative scenarios and land-use change modelling at the catchment scale, interacting with local stakeholders who were involved throughout the research, in line with current Land System research. First, we built contrasted scenarios, each with a narrative story and quantitative assumptions for key variables. Then we drew up rules for translating narrative scenarios into spatially explicit maps based on expert groups and local knowledge, simulating the evolution of land use over time. Third, we evaluated and validated the final scenarios by conducting two workshops with scientists and local stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the impact of these scenarios on agricultural production and erosion control. This approach was implemented in the Tleta basin (Morocco), a 180 km 2 rural watershed, 10 km from Tangiers and heavily affected by water erosion. As a result, we propose three contrasted spatially explicit land-use change scenarios by 2040. Our work highlights the interest of combining narrative storylines and land-use modelling when developing spatially explicit scenarios at the catchment scale, incorporating the local knowledge of stakeholders. The combination of Land System and ecosystem frameworks contributes to integrating the soil erosion issue in a more global perspective, and lays the foundation for building sustainable strategies for Mediterranean catchments affected by soil erosion.

International audience

International audience; The objective of this study was to examine the impacts of climate and land use changes on water availability and sediment loads for a water supply reservoir in northern Morocco using data-intensive simulation models in a data-scarce region. Impacts were assessed by comparing the simulated water and sediment entering the reservoir between the future period 2031e2050 and the 1983e2010 reference period. Three scenarios of land use change and two scenarios of climate change were developed in the Tleta watershed. Simulations under current and future conditions were performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The simulations showed that climate change will lead to a significant decrease in the annual water supply to the reservoir (À16.9% and À27.5%) and in the annual volume of sediment entering the reservoir (À7.4% and À12.6%), depending on the climate change scenarios tested. The three scenarios of land use change will lead to a moderate change in annual water inflow into the reservoir (between À6.7% and þ6.2%), while causing a significant decrease in sediment entering the reservoir (À37% to À24%). The combined impacts of climate and land use changes will cause a reduction in annual water availability (À9.9% to À33.3%) and sediment supplies (À28.7% to À45.8%). As a result, the lifetime of the reservoir will be extended, but at the same time, the risk of water shortages will increase, especially from July to March. Therefore, alternative water resources must be considered.

International audience; This paper demonstrates the usefulness of valuing a diversity of ecosystem services for groundwater protection. It argues that improving the understanding of local stakeholders regarding the benefits that strategic groundwater preservation for future generations can bring to their territories is a relevant mean to enhance their support towards groundwater conservation. We develop and test a systemic approach based on local data collection , cost-based monetary valuation methods and stakeholder involvement. The paper reports on empirical work conducted in a strategic groundwater area located in Southern France, that could be of interest in the future to supply the growing population of coastal urban areas. We characterize, quantify and valuate in monetary terms nine ecosystem services. We then analyze the perception of the proposed approach, ecosystem services and associated monetary values by organising a workshop involving 25 local stakeholders. Overall, participants validate the operational feasibility and the relevance of the approach for raising awareness and bridging the gap between environmental issues, which can be effective triggers to the implementation of protection action. Yet, monetary valuation provides only partial insights into the overall value of the benefits of protecting the strategic groundwater area, and would improve from being articulated with socio-cultural valuation methods.

International audience; 12 This article proposes an innovative approach to assess the benefits of adapting to sea level rise (SLR) in a coastal 13 area on a regional scale. The valuation framework integrates coastal ecosystem services, together with urban and 14 agricultural assets. We simulate the impacts of a progressive 1 m rise in sea level in the 21 st century and an extreme 15 flooding event in 2100 for four contrasted adaptation scenarios (Denial, " Laissez-faire " , Protection and Retreat). 16 The assessment involves coupling the results of hazard-modelling approaches with different economic valuation 17 methods, including direct damage functions and methods used in environmental economics. The framework is 18 applied to the French Mediterranean sandy coastline. SLR will result in major land-use changes at the 2100 time 19 horizon: relocation or densification of urban areas, loss of agricultural land, increase in lagoon areas and 20 modification of wetlands (losses, migration or extension of ecosystems). Total benefits of public adaptation options 21 planned in advance could reach €31.2 billion for the period 2010-2100, i.e. €69,000 per inhabitant (in the study 22 area) in 2010 or €135 million/km of coastline. Our results highlight the importance of (i) raising awareness to 23 ensure that public services and coastal managers can anticipate the consequences of SLR and (ii) incorporating 24 coastal ecosystems into the assessment of the adaptation options. Our findings could provide a basis for 25 participatory foresight approaches to build coastline adaptation pathways. 26 27

International audience; Beach protection has become a major issue in reducing coastal risks (erosion and flooding). It is thus advisable to study residents' preferences for mitigation strategies. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) by permanent and secondary residents for flood protection provided to properties by Languedoc-Roussillon beaches (French Mediterranean coast) is investigated by a contingent valuation study. Results show that WTP is more influenced by risk perception variables than by socio-economic ones. The WTP is then extrapolated on the basis of different adaptation strategies (laissez-faire, managed retreat, denial etc.) which provided information about expected damage associated with sea level rise at the 2100 time horizon.

International audience; In Europe, 30% of groundwater bodies are considered to be at risk of not achieving the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 'good status' objective by 2015, and 45% are in doubt of doing so. Diffuse agricultural pollution is one of the main pressures affecting groundwater bodies. To tackle this problem, the WFD requires Member States to design and implement cost-effective programs of measures to achieve the 'good status' objective by 2027 at the latest. Hitherto, action plans have mainly consisted of promoting the adoption of Agri-Environmental Schemes (AES). This raises a number of questions concerning the effectiveness of such schemes for improving groundwater status, and the economic implications of their implementation. We propose a hydro-economic model that combines a hydrogeological model to simulate groundwater quality evolution with agronomic and economic components to assess the expected costs, effectiveness, and benefits of AES implementation. This hydro-economic model can be used to identify cost-effective AES combinations at groundwater-body scale and to show the benefits to be expected from the resulting improvement in groundwater quality. The model is applied here to a rural area encompassing the Hesbaye aquifer, a large chalk aquifer which supplies about 230,000 inhabitants in the city of Liege (Belgium) and is severely contaminated by agricultural nitrates. We show that the time frame within which improvements in the Hesbaye groundwater quality can be expected may be much longer than that required by the WFD. Current WFD programs based on AES may be inappropriate for achieving the 'good status' objective in the most productive agricultural areas, in particular because these schemes are insufficiently attractive. Achieving 'good status' by 2027 would demand a substantial change in the design of AES, involving costs that may not be offset by benefits in the case of chalk aquifers with long renewal times.

MISEEVA (2008-2011) aims to assess coastal zone vulnerability to marine inundation by integrating the physical and socio-economical aspects at different temporal (2010, 2030 and 2100) and spatial (local to regional) scales. The Languedoc Roussillon (France) region was chosen as a pilot site, focusing on local sites from Villeneuve-les-Maguelone to Carnon, in Herault. It required the development of a transdisciplinary methodology to enable transfers of knowledge and promote interdisciplinary iteration of methods throughout the project. In 2030, sea level rise (SLR) should not exceed 0.07m (IPCC, 2007). For 2100, SLR of 0.35m (A2 SRES scenario, GIECC 2007) and 1m (Rahmstorf, 2007, Grinsted et al, 2009), are both considered. As negligible changes in storminess are expected (IPCC, 2007, Deque, 2007), historical storms are therefore used as references to simulate exceptional inundations, in 2010, 2030 and 2100. Regional and local propagation of wind-generated waves and surges (wave set-up and atmospheric surge) are calculated using a chain of models and semi-empirical formulas. Then, maps of permanent, recurrent and exceptional inundations (due to SLR, tidal level, and surges) in 2010, 2030, and 2100 are drawn. Socio-economy in 2030 is believed to follow the present day trend in Languedoc-Roussillon (demographic growth, urbanisation and tourist development). Socio-economic evolution in 2100 is quite unforeseeable: scenarios for 2100 are being built based on contrasted potential adaptation strategy scenarios Designing a typology and valuation of present day assets help to value potential damages processes due to marine inundation on the coastal system at 2010, 2030 and 2100. Perception and response capacity knowledge to marine inundation risk is gained through residents, users and stakeholder surveys at the local site.Mixing physical and socio-economical approaches to evaluate the exposure of a territory to a hazard allows progression towards a systemic definition of vulnerability. Projection in the future points out the need to consider adaptation capacity as a main parameter of vulnerability evolution.