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Changes in living environments due to natural hazards are important indicators that affect livelihood and sustainable development, particularly for those farmers residing in poor and remote regions. The uptake of adaptive measures by these farmers is generally partial or incomplete. Thus, there is a real need to understand better the set of drivers that shapes farmers’ decisions of adaptation practices, which help to minimize risks and overcome hazards so that sustainable regional development can be facilitated and maintained. We extend the theoretical framework by adding a psychological driver to the traditional Capital Approach Framework (CAF) to examine the nexus between farmers’ perceptions, their adaptive assets (human, physical, financial, social, and natural capitals), and their adaptation strategies. In this study, we use survey data of 916 small-scale Vietnamese farmers to examine the research question by employing a multivariate probit model. Our results suggest that heightened perception increases the propensity of respondents to diversify their income sources away from agricultural activities and engage in better investment management. Government assistance in the form of extension training and microcredit programs demotivates farmers from adaptations, therefore redesignation of these schemes or collaboration with the private sector is necessary. Information obtained from local officers would encourage farmers to widely adapt their livelihood strategies to climate change, we thus suggest that the farmers should utilize this information as much as they can. Along with our finding of the significant impact of farm size on farmers’ adaptations adoptions, the “land accumulation” program directly benefits small-scale farmers so that they are motivated to either expand productions or transfer land ownership by participating in the land market. The application of this program may help other countries to avoid land fragmentation and abandonment to ensure farmers’ livelihood under climate change.

Mitigating and adapting to the effects of climate change is an ongoing concern for developing countries like Vietnam. Hence, Vietnam ratified the Paris agreement without delay in October 2016. As a part of its climate policy strategy, the government is proposing to increase the taxes either on coal by 50% or petroleum products by 33.33%. This study employs the GTAP-E-Power model with additional improvements to include non-CO2 emissions to examine the impacts of such a policy on the Vietnamese economy. Results show that the trade-offs of the increased tax on petroleum products (Scenario 1) are much higher than the increased tax on coal (Scenario 2). For example, real GDP in Vietnam declines by 2.23% and 1.05% in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, respectively. In addition, the country’s emissions level reduces by 10.23% in Scenario 2 compared to a reduction of 7.62% in Scenario 1. A higher tax on coal would foster the extension of renewable energy sectors faster than the impacts resulted from increasing tax on petroleum products. The increased demands by the private sector for electricity generated from renewable sources signals a potential for a sustainable development of the renewable electricity generation sectors in Vietnam.

This paper examines the economy-wide impacts of wild catch fishery decline due to climate change on major wild catch producing countries in Southeast Asia and South America, particularly focusing on food industries. A global economic model has been extended to separate the choice between wild catch and aquaculture in the production and consumption functions. The fish commodity/sector is also disaggregated in the database into wild catch and aquaculture commodities/sectors in order to make it compatible with the modified model. Results show that the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Ecuador and Peru experience considerable impacts on their economies, food industries, and households. Vietnam experiences the lowest impact on their economy because of low impact on their ocean fish resource. Results also indicate that expansions in aquaculture outputs are not adequate to compensate losses in wild catch production in all countries, and there will be a scarcity of fish in the international market that will be harmful to international trade of wild catch and aquaculture, as well as global food security. Households will also be substantially vulnerable due to high prices of fish and lower income levels resulting from contractions of production levels.

Global ballast water management regulations aiming to decrease aquatic species invasion require actions that can increase shipping costs. We employ an integrated shipping cost and global economic modeling approach to investigate the impacts of ballast water regulations on bilateral trade, national economies, and shipping patterns. Given the potential need for more stringent regulation at regional hotspots of species invasions, this work considers two ballast water treatment policy scenarios: implementation of current international regulations, and a possible stricter regional regulation that targets ships traveling to and from the United States while other vessels continue to face current standards. We find that ballast water management compliance costs under both scenarios lead to modest negative impacts on international trade and national economies overall. However, stricter regulations applied to U.S. ports are expected to have large negative impacts on bilateral trade of several specific commodities for a few countries. Trade diversion causes decreased U.S. imports of some products, leading to minor economic welfare losses.

The Vietnamese Government is proposing a new tax levy on either petroleum products or coal, or both. That is, the Government expects to increase the current tax rates to the maximum levels set previously. In this instance, the tax on coal is intended to increase by 50%, while the tax on petroleum products is intended to increase by 33.33%. This study employs a computable general equilibrium model to assess the effects of these increases in taxes on the Vietnamese economy, focusing on energy, transportation, and the private sectors. Results show that an increase in tax on petroleum products will considerably affect the country with a reduction of real GDP by 1.99%. Exports and imports are also highly unfavorably affected. In this instance, the total emission level will be reduced by 7.12%. The increased tax on coal, however, will allow Vietnam to experience much lower unfavorable effects, while being able to cut a substantial amount of the emission level. For example, real GDP would only decline by 0.51%, while total emission level will be reduced by 10.25%. If these taxes are increased together, Vietnam will experience considerable contractions in the economy, but it is able to reduce a substantial emission level.

This paper assesses the potential effects on the U.S. economy if the U.S. retreats from its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions agreed under the Paris Agreement. We assume prior to withdrawal that the U.S. and other nations or regions would introduce climate change policies, such as emissions trading schemes, to meet their emission targets which were agreed in Paris. When the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, it will not adopt such a policy. We use a modified version of the GTAP-E model to examine the effects on the U.S. economy of its anti-mitigation action in a counterfactual framework. The findings suggest that a retreat from the Paris Agreement would increase the real GDP and real private consumption by 1.13% and 0.78%, respectively, in the U.S. Given such improvements at the macro level, the effects on the U.S. energy sectors from the withdrawal are substantial. Prices of energy would reduce considerably, particularly for coal, natural gas, and consequently the price of electricity (−17.8%). These three energy sectors would also experience considerable expansions when the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement compared to its position if it honored its previously pledged committed targets.

This paper examines the potential effects of the expansion of crude oil and natural gas extraction in Arctic Alaska on the U.S. economy, focusing on key energy sectors. Expanded extraction activities are expected to boost the U.S. economy at relatively small rates because the oil and natural gas extraction industries comprise a small share of GDP compared to other U.S. industries. However, this expansion may have substantial implications on energy sectors, with considerable growth expected in the oil and petroleum products manufacturing industry. The U.S. trade balance for energy resources may be improved through increased exports of crude oil (108%), natural gas (26%), and petroleum products (10%). Such increased exports of energy from the U.S. are important supplies to the international energy market given the substantial role of the U.S. in global energy trade. In the domestic market, U.S. households enjoy lower prices of fossil fuels and electricity as a result of expanded extraction.

This paper examines the impacts of the Emissions Reduction Fund on the Australian economy. The GTAP-E model has been extended to allocate the subsidy directly to each eligible sector. The simulation of the subsidy policy has been supplemented by introducing an improvement of energy efficiency to non-agricultural sectors and of resource efficiency by using endowment factors in the agricultural sector. Results indicate that, with the current budget of A$2.55 billion, or US$1.86 billion (Scenario 1), Australia can only achieve the minimum cumulative emissions reduction target of 225 MtCO 2 -e during 2015–20. Australia needs a budget of US$2.08 billion (Scenario 2) to achieve the maximum cumulative emissions reduction target of 279 MtCO 2 -e. In both scenarios, the agricultural sector receives the highest payment from the Australian Federal Government under the subsidy programme, followed by the electricity generation sector. Under the scheme, Australia experiences only a mild contraction in the economy, with a reduction of real GDP by 0.37% and 0.55% in the two scenarios, respectively.

This article employs a global computable general equilibrium economic model (GTAP-E-PowerS) to examine the impact on the world economy if households in every country self-supply power to meet 30–100% of residential demand, with subsequent monetary savings diverted to consuming more food. Results show the power generation sector reduces output levels by 14%–42% across various countries if households 100% self-supply. Coal mining sectors are adversely affected in numerous countries with contractions of 9%–28% ($6,086-$18,935 million) in the United States and 4%–13% ($2,505–$8,143 million) in Australia. Improved outcomes for the world environment are found with reductions of CO2e emission levels of 2.24%–7.38% (or 924–3,042 MtCO2 equivalent). The agriculture and food-processing sectors expand significantly in many countries but also cause major increases in land prices, particularly in land-scarce countries in Middle East, Europe, Japan, and Taiwan. Results also show the security of food and energy supply are improved along with environmental gains from lower emission levels. However, the energy sector is adversely affected and those countries with a heavy reliance on fossil fuel extraction and mining activities experience significant reductions in real GDP.

Using the MONASH-Green model and a database containing detailed energy sectors, this paper evaluates the effects of a proposed emissions trading scheme on the Australian economy and the emissions levels. The simulation results indicate that the price of carbon permits has to increase from A$4.1 per tonne in 2015 through A$13.1 per tonne in 2020 to A$41.3 per tonne in 2030 to achieve a target of 28% below the 2005 level in 2030. The main buyers of permits would be the agricultural sector, black-coal electricity sector and brown-coal electricity sector. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, Australia's GDP is projected to be 0.85% lower in 2020 and 1.6% lower in 2030. Household welfare, measured in terms of equivalent variations, will increase due to compensations provided by the government. The results also lend strong support towards the transition to renewable energy. The stylised model was adapted to inform the results of the full model.

Countries have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020 following the Paris Agreement. We consider these targets by using the climate change policy version of the GTAP-E model of the world economy to analyse economic and environmental outcomes in the transition from domestic settings to broad international linkages for selected major emitting regions. We have obtained several insights. First, developing nations present relatively low emission abatement costs compared to developed countries. China and India are also major emitters with substantial possibilities to create carbon credits for selling to other regions. Second, any forms of international carbon markets are confirmed to have lower costs for a linked global system than domestic-solely schemes. Third, the participation of China and India in an international carbon market particularly drives down the carbon price (to US$1.62 per tonne of CO2-e) and economic costs of the system. Real GDP of countries in such a linkage will only decline by 0.1%, while the electricity sector in most countries only experiences 1% loss in their output levels. The US, European Union and Australia particularly benefit from the participation of China and India in the carbon linkage by significantly lowering costs on their economies. Finally, it is also found that not all international emission linkages benefit low abatement cost countries if they do not have suitable strategies to recycle their net carbon trading revenues.

Vietnam is a young and fast-growing economy in Southeast Asia that has put effort into internationally tackling climate change issues. By well understanding the energy resources, markets, policies, and scientific studies will help the country move faster towards a cleaner and more sustainable economy. This review indicates that Vietnam has abundant natural resources to develop renewable power; however, the country's economy is still small, lacking financial capacity, advanced technologies and human resources for rapid development of renewable energy. Institutional barriers, such as market-controlled mechanisms and unstable supporting policies, also limit investment in renewable power sectors. Transmission and distribution networks are currently not compatible with power plant construction, leading to high risks for investors. Due to financial and technological constraints, Vietnam still needs to strongly develop fuel-fired power along with renewable energy. As a result, although the energy policies and plans are set towards cleaner production, progress will be slow. Vietnam may need strong support from international organizations and governments to develop better financial capacity, as well as quality human resources and advanced technology in order to transition to a low-carbon economy more rapidly. A better and stronger energy efficiency policy should also be facilitated so that power targets can be achieved at lower costs for the country to release much lower emission levels. Research-based findings also need to be strengthened to support policy-decision making.

Biochemicals constitute a key sector in the bioeconomy, but their future expansion depends on biomass availability. This study employs an integrated global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach to quantify the impacts on land-use change, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and socioeconomic indicators, when reducing biomass conversion costs for global biochemical production by 1.5% annually until 2050. Global demand for crop- and forest-based feedstock by the chemical industry increases sharply in 2050, e.g. by 327% for wheat; driving up agro-food prices, e.g. by 3.5% for oilseeds and 3.9% for sugarcane in Brazil. Chemical output decreases in countries that rely on imported biomass for biochemical production, such as Germany, France or the United States; while it increases, for instance, in Brazil and Australia, which draw mainly on domestic feedstock. Increased biomass demand entails significant natural forest cover loss across South America and Asia, and, to a lesser extent, in North America. Associated GHG from global carbon stock losses outweigh those from fossil fuel savings, increasing GHG emissions globally by 107 Mt in 2050, relative to the baseline. Results suggest that R&D investments in bio-based sectors should be complemented with coherent policies to prevent deforestation and negative impacts on the Sustainable Development Goals.

Energy security has been a major concern in developing countries because of rapid economic development and population growth, low power generation capacity, and unwell-developed transmission infrastructure. Vietnam in this context has been under energy security threats for more than a decade and is currently having a new power policy to strongly develop power generation and distribution networks. It is expected that the country's economy is able to develop substantially due to massively additional energy supply once completing the plants and distribution networks but the likely impacts are still undefined. This paper extends an economic electricity-detailed model to examine the potential impacts of such a new power policy in Vietnam. We find that the policy will decrease the prices of both fossil-based and renewable-based electricity significantly by 40%–78% under a 2030 target scenario, benefiting all sectors in the economy to substitute for fossil fuels. Households are particularly benefited as evidenced by 5.64%–19.19% increases in per-capita utility. Overall, the Vietnamese economy is significantly advantaged with real GDP increasing by 5.44%–24.83% over different scenarios, which are much higher than the findings in other countries. More importantly, the policy moves the country to a low-carbon energy structure in the near future.

As a result of statistical contingencies, research frequently employs aged databases to examine the impacts of energy and climate change policies in contemporary situations, or in forward timeframes out to 2050 or even 2100. These forward-looking studies require a base case scenario in order to assess the impacts of a policy. In this article, we hypothesise how a baseline is ‘rolled forward’, and specifically, how this process can materially alter the apparent performance of an energy or climate change policy. In the literature, we find a variety of methods are used to update databases and project forward base case scenarios, some which scale an entire economy to a general trend of growth, whereas others account for sectoral differences. We extend a global electricity-detailed model (GTAP-E-Power) to examine our hypothesis. We evaluate impacts of a world-wide carbon tax policy ($50/t of carbon dioxide equivalent) using three different baselines, with varying levels of specificity relating to macroeconomic projections and sectoral developments and constraints. Results show the impact on sectors and the overall economy in all countries are highly diverse when different baselines are used. For example, fossil-based power output in the United States declines between 36.7 and 65.5% while Real GDP in China declines between −0.66 and −1.54% for an identical policy, depending on which baseline methodology is used. Above all, we find that stronger development of renewable energy and technology in the baselines results in lower costs of a climate change mitigation policy.

This study aims to fill a gap in the literature by examining the impacts of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) in Vietnam, as the policy has been discussed for a decade in the country but the likely impacts on the economy and different sectors are still unidentified. The simulations are carried out in a global energy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, an extension of the GTAP-E model, which treats Vietnam as a country region. Results show that restricting the number of industrial sectors in the emissions trading market substantially affects the country's economy with a decline in real GDP by 4.57%. However, the country experiences much smaller adverse impacts (e.g., real GDP declines by 1.78%) when all industries participate in the emissions trading market. In either case of the ETS design, the coal mining, manufacturing, transportation, and electricity sectors are highly adversely affected; however, the crude oil and natural gas extraction sectors would experience expansion in their production levels due to substitutions for coal. In general, under the policy the emission levels from burning fossil fuels decline at significant rates, particularly from the electricity generation sector.

A new carbon price mechanism with full emission coverage is developed within the framework of a global computable general equilibrium model (GTAP-E-PowerS) to enhance the capacity and accuracy for climate change and energy policy assessment. The model developed is then used to examine the potential impacts of the carbon tax in South Africa. Results show that incorporation of non-CO2 emissions in the model significantly alters the results of which the economy of South Africa experiences higher costs compared to the case that only has CO2 emissions. When more sectors are included in the policy it also puts higher costs on the economy, as higher levels of emissions are subject to the carbon tax. Results also show that South Africa only experiences small tradeoffs from introducing the carbon tax in all scenarios. That is, with a tax rate of $9.15, the country is able to reduce its emission levels by 12.25%–15.6% at the costs of real GDP reduction by 1.17%–1.59%. Fossil-based industrial sectors are particularly worst off, while clean and renewable energy sectors strongly expand their production. The results indicate that South Africa is likely to move to a low carbon and sustainable economy with such a policy.

Understanding household's decision making in agricultural production to natural hazards is significant for policymakers and extension organizations in supporting farmers to optimize adaptive strategies, there are, however, still limited empirical researches that emphasize the determinants affecting the choice of measures in the process of adaptation. This paper explores the decision-making process of rural households in adapting to flash floods and landslides (FF&LS) by conducting a household survey on 405 purposively selected households in Yen Bai province, one of the poorest mountainous regions in Vietnam. Based on the multi-portfolio framework, the study assumes that farmers have multiple choice of adaptation strategies simultaneously and these adaptation measures are correlative. Multivariate Probit models were used to figure out the household decision making process in adapting to FF&LS. Survey results showed that changing cropping patterns, crop variegation, diversifying types of crop varieties, as well as managing and implementing crop protection (soil and plant) are the primary adaptation measures applied by local farmers. Furthermore, lack of money, inadequate support from local government, shortage of machinery and technical equipment, as well as insufficient knowledge about FF&LS were listed as major constraints in the study area. The MVP analysis indicated that all farmers' perception, socio-economic, farming features, and institutional conditions strongly influence the farmers' adaptation decisions regarding FF&LS. Future policies may therefore need to consider these major contributing factors with appropriate interventions to facilitate suitable adaptations for local farmers.

The theory of marginal abatement cost (MAC) indicates that if a country has a high MAC, it should link its domestic emissions trading scheme (ETS) with a foreign country, which has either low MAC or low emissions reduction target. This strategy will maximise its economic benefits from the linkage compared to its domestic ETS. On the other hand, if a country has a low MAC, it would seek a partner, which has either a high MAC or a high emissions reduction target. Using a computable general equilibrium model, namely the extended GTAP-E model, we found that Australia could yield the greatest economic benefits by linking its ETS with India. China is the second best alternative for Australia to link its ETS, while the European Union is the most expensive option for Australia. Overall, the results support the contention that any bilateral linkage is always better for Australia than operating its own domestic ETS alone.

We employ the GTAP-E model to analyse the short run effects of two emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios at global level subject to 2020 emissions targets. In Scenario 1, an ETS is formulated among Annex 1 countries only, while the ETS is expanded by adding China, India and South Korea in Scenario 2. The study shows that the cost of meeting emissions reduction commitments of Australia and other countries can be reduced by engaging in block-level emissions trading. In particular, a permit price of US$10.56 emerges with the ETS among Annex 1 countries. This price is reduced to US$6.32 when China, India and South Korea also joined the global ETS. Results show that the ETS has a modest overall economic impact on the Australian economy and globally. Results also confirm that selling permits to the world is not welfare enhancing; rather countries who buy permits improve their welfare.

This paper examines the environmental and economic effects of six (European Union, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand, South Korea and Kazakhstan) domestic national Emissions Trading Schemes (ETSs). We have extended the analysis to an international ETS among these schemes since their governments have shown an ambition to obtain a linked market and have been carrying out negotiations for many years towards that goal. We incorporated non-CO2 emissions into the GTAP-E model database and extended the model to estimate the impact of domestic ETSs and an international ETS. Our analysis provides detailed projections regarding emissions permits allocation and emissions fluctuations. The results indicate that emissions trading volumes are very small in both domestic and international ETS scenarios since Norway, Switzerland, New Zealand and Kazakhstan economies are very small compared with the European Union and South Korea. In addition, the results in the international ETS scenario do not differ greatly from domestic trading scenario. However, results indicate that emissions abatement takes place with the lowest cost through an international ETS setting.