1. Is the ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator Accurate in Predicting Adverse Postoperative Outcomes in the Emergency Setting? An Italian Single-center Preliminary Study
- Author
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Lucia Paiano, Annalisa Zucca, Nicolò de Manzini, Alan Biloslavo, Stefano Fracon, Giulio Del Zotto, Davide Cosola, Giovanni Scotton, Laura Bernardi, Susanna Terranova, Scotton, G., Del Zotto, G., Bernardi, L., Zucca, A., Terranova, S., Fracon, S., Paiano, L., Cosola, D., Biloslavo, A., and de Manzini, N.
- Subjects
Adult ,Male ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Original Scientific Report ,Single Center ,Risk Assessment ,03 medical and health sciences ,Postoperative Complications ,0302 clinical medicine ,medicine ,Humans ,emergency surgery ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Aged, 80 and over ,risk calculator ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,030208 emergency & critical care medicine ,Retrospective cohort study ,Middle Aged ,Vascular surgery ,medicine.disease ,Appendicitis ,Italy ,Brier score ,Area Under Curve ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Relative risk ,Emergency medicine ,Female ,Surgery ,business ,Abdominal surgery - Abstract
Background The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC) is an open-access online tool that estimates the chance for adverse postoperative outcomes. The risk is estimated based on 21 patient-related variables and customized for specific surgical procedures. The purpose of this monocentric retrospective study is to validate its predictive value in an Italian emergency setting. Methods From January to December 2018, 317 patients underwent surgical procedures for acute cholecystitis (n = 103), appendicitis (n = 83), gastrointestinal perforation (n = 45), and intestinal obstruction (n = 86). Patients’ personal risk was obtained and divided by the average risk to calculate a personal risk ratio (RR). Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) and Brier score were measured to assess both the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model. Results The AUC was 0.772 (95%CI 0.722–0.817, p p p p p p 1.24, RR > 1.52, and RR > 2.63 predicted the onset of serious complications (sensitivity = 60.47%, specificity = 64.07%; NPV = 81%), death (sensitivity = 82.76%, specificity = 62.85%; NPV = 97%), and discharge to nursing or rehab facility (sensitivity = 80.00%, specificity = 69.12%; NPV = 95%), respectively. Conclusions The calculator appears to be accurate in predicting adverse postoperative outcomes in our emergency setting. A RR cutoff provides a much more practical method to forecast the onset of a specific type of complication in a single patient.
- Published
- 2020
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