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The US Geological Survey’s ShakeMap is used domestically and globally for post-earthquake emergency management and response, engineering analyses, financial instruments, and other decision-making activities. Recent developments in the insurance, reinsurance, and catastrophe bond sectors link payouts of potentially hundreds of millions of dollars to ShakeMap products. Similarly, building codes, post-earthquake building damage forensic evaluations, and geotechnical evaluations often rely on estimated peak response-spectral values for site-specific evaluations that may lead to costly analyses, retrofits, or other expenditures. Given such activities, financial, engineering, and other technical users demand processing specifications and a metadata trail for actuarial, escrow, and forensic purposes for each significant earthquake. Recent inquiries include how and why maps change with time, how to interpret metadata, and how to obtain the creation and update history of various map layers. Similarly, the collection of ShakeMap scenarios and historical ShakeMaps—either created in earlier versions or rerun as part of the latest version of the ShakeMap Atlas—warrant a full explanation of the inputs, processing, and archiving given their contribution to fragility curve development and loss model calibration. For these reasons, in addition to event-specific ShakeMap metadata and a comprehensive online ShakeMap Manual, we have crafted this practice paper to answer several of the most frequently asked technical questions. We also describe an application programming interface (API) for accessing site-specific shaking metrics and their uncertainties for earthquake forensic purposes in a consistent fashion. In all, we describe the advantages of employing ShakeMaps for these critical purposes as well as describe their limitations and uncertainties, offering an extensive set of instructions and disclaimers that can be referenced by ShakeMap users.

We introduce a Bayesian framework for incorporating time-varying noisy reported data on damage and loss information to update near real-time loss estimates/alerts for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. Initial loss estimation by PAGER immediately following an earthquake includes several uncertainties. Historically, the PAGER’s alerting on fatality and economic losses has not incorporated location-specific reported data on physical damage or casualties for a given earthquake. The proposed framework provides the ability to include early reports on fatalities at any given time and improve the overall impact forecast for the earthquake. The reported data on fatalities or damage are generally incomplete and noisy, especially in the early hours of the disaster. To address these challenges, we develop a recursive Bayesian updating framework that takes into account the loss projection model and the measurement and model uncertainties. The framework is applied to loss data for three example earthquakes, and the results show that the proposed updating improves the loss estimates and alert level to the correct level within the first day of the earthquake.

The United States Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) alert system provides rapid (10–20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time-consuming (2–5 h) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution for large domestic earthquakes. We developed a rapid hybrid post-earthquake product that takes advantage of the best of both loss models. First, though, we conducted a systematic comparison of loss estimates from PAGER with Hazus for all significant, relatively recent, domestic earthquakes for which adequate loss data exist—augmented by a dozen ShakeMap scenarios. The systematic comparison of Hazus and PAGER losses provided the basis for selecting the specific loss metrics to present from each system. The signature product will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed PAGER alert product for significant domestic earthquakes.

Ham radio networks gear up to provide real-time, on-the-ground information about earthquake shaking and damage when other communication pathways are knocked out of commission.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has developed financial risk management strategies for natural disasters focusing primarily on the emergency phase of the catastrophes where financial support is more cost-efficient and certainly most needed. The main IDB financial instrument to provide liquidity in the aftermath of catastrophic events is the Contingent Credit Facility (CCF). The CCF is a parametric financial insurance product that makes payments upon the occurrence of events of specific characteristics previously defined with the country. Specifically, in the case of earthquake coverage, the USGS and IDB have been collaborating together in order to improve the trigger design of the loans. CCF is now based on parametric triggers that correlate the magnitude, intensity, and population exposure of the event with the payments. This chapter presents the IDB journey to develop this state-of-the-art parametric index for CCF earthquakes pay offs.

We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

Building collapse is the dominant cause of casualties during earthquakes. In order to better predict human fatalities, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program requires collapse fragility functions for global building types. The collapse fragility is expressed as the probability of collapse at discrete levels of the input hazard defined in terms of macroseismic intensity. This article provides a simple procedure for quantifying collapse fragility using vulnerability criteria based on the European Macroseismic Scale (1998) for selected European building types. In addition, the collapse fragility functions are developed for global building types by fitting the beta distribution to the multiple experts’ estimates for the same building type (obtained from EERI’s World Housing Encyclopedia (WHE)PAGER survey). Finally, using the collapse probability distributions at each shaking intensity level as a prior and field-based collapse-rate observations as likelihood, it is possible to update the collapse fragility functions for global building types using the Bayesian procedure. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3606398]

Online material : Timeline movie The M 9.0 11 March 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and associated tsunami near the east coast of the island of Honshu caused tens of thousands of deaths and potentially over one trillion dollars in damage, resulting in one of the worst natural disasters ever recorded. The U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center (USGS NEIC), through its responsibility to respond to all significant global earthquakes as part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, quickly produced and distributed a suite of earthquake information products to inform emergency responders, the public, the media, and the academic community of the earthquake's potential impact and to provide scientific background for the interpretation of the event's tectonic context and potential for future hazard. Here we present a timeline of the NEIC response to this devastating earthquake in the context of rapidly evolving information emanating from the global earthquake-response community. The timeline includes both internal and publicly distributed products, the relative timing of which highlights the inherent tradeoffs between the requirement to provide timely alerts and the necessity for accurate, authoritative information. The timeline also documents the iterative and evolutionary nature of the standard products produced by the NEIC and includes a behind-the-scenes look at the decisions, data, and analysis tools that drive our rapid product distribution. The NEIC operates a 24/7 service dedicated to the rapid determination of the location and size of all significant earthquakes worldwide and to the immediate dissemination of this information to concerned national and international agencies, scientists, critical facilities, and the general public. Within its 24/7 operations, the NEIC is constantly staffed by at least two geophysicists who are responsible for reviewing and reporting all magnitude 5 or larger events within 20 minutes of origin time. These analysts also field incoming calls from the …

We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

The compilation of a comprehensive global earthquake catalog that delivers both accurate source parameters and fatality estimates is a task that is simple in theory but challenging in practice. The necessary information is spread throughout numerous earthquake catalogs, reports, and online databases. Earthquake catalogs are created for different purposes, and consequently they excel in different areas. Some catalogs provide high-quality hypocenters while others contain carefully researched damage reports. Herein we examine published global catalogs and create PAGER-CAT, a composite global catalog of earthquake source parameters and effects. PAGER-CAT incorporates eight global earthquake catalogs and additional auxiliary data to provide comprehensive information not only for hypocentral locations, magnitudes, and human fatalities, but when available, focal mechanisms, the country of origin or the distance to the nearest landmass, local time and day of week, presence of secondary effects ( e.g. , tsunami, landslide, fire, or liquefaction) and deaths caused by these effects, the number of buildings damaged or destroyed, and the number of people injured or left homeless. The first version of the catalog is composed of more than 140 fields in which detailed event information can be recorded and currently includes events from 1900 through December 2007, with emphasis on earthquakes since 1973. The catalog was compiled for calibration and development of earthquake fatality models to be used by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The PAGER system currently provides estimates of the number of people and the names of cities exposed to severe shaking following significant earthquakes (Earle et al. 2008; Wald et al. 2008). In the future, PAGER will produce rapid fatality estimates within approximately 20 minutes of an earthquake's occurrence anywhere on the globe, using loss models calibrated against PAGER-CAT ( e.g. , Jaiswal et al. 2008; Porter et al. …

When a potentially damaging earthquake occurs, utility and other lifeline managers, emergency responders, and other critical users have an urgent need for information about the impact on their particular facilities so they can make appropriate decisions and take quick actions to ensure safety and restore system functionality. ShakeMap, a tool used to portray the extent of potentially damaging shaking following an earthquake, on its own can be useful for emergency response, loss estimation, and public information. However, to take full advantage of the potential of ShakeMap, we introduce ShakeCast. ShakeCast facilitates the complicated assessment of potential damage to a user's widely distributed facilities by comparing the complex shaking distribution with the potentially highly variable damageability of their inventory to provide a simple, hierarchical list and maps of structures or facilities most likely impacted. ShakeCast is a freely available, post-earthquake situational awareness application that automatically retrieves earthquake shaking data from ShakeMap, compares intensity measures against users’ facilities, sends notifications of potential damage to responsible parties, and generates facility damage maps and other Web-based products for both public and private emergency managers and responders.

At the beginning of 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) introduced a new automated Earthquake Notification Service (ENS) to take the place of the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) “Bigquake” system and the various other individual EHP e-mail list-servers for separate regions in the United States. These included northern California, southern California, and the central and eastern United States. ENS is a “one-stop shopping” system that allows Internet users to subscribe to flexible and customizable notifications for earthquakes anywhere in the world. The customization capability allows users to define the what (magnitude threshold), the when (day and night thresholds), and the where (specific regions) for their notifications. Customization is achieved by employing a per-user based request profile, allowing the notifications to be tailored for each individual's requirements. Such earthquake-parameter-specific custom delivery was not possible with simple e-mail list-servers. Now that event and user profiles are in a structured query language (SQL) database, additional flexibility is possible. At the time of this writing, ENS had more than 114,000 subscribers, with more than 200,000 separate user profiles. On a typical day, more than 188,000 messages get sent to a variety of widely distributed users for a wide range of earthquake locations and magnitudes. The purpose of this article is to describe how ENS works, highlight the features it offers, and summarize plans for future developments. ### ENS Features The ENS interface has many customizable features. The current user interface and options were developed as an iterative process over a period of one year, as feedback was received from a group of beta users. Messages were modified from long-established versions sent by the NEIC and the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Specific details and user configuration options for each feature are provided on the ENS signup Web page (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ens/), but in brief …

We describe a new probabilistic method that uses observations of modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) from past earthquakes to make quantitative estimates of ground shaking parameters (i.e., peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, 5% damped spectral acceleration values, etc.). The method uses a Bayesian approach to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities of different levels of ground motions from intensity data given an earthquake of known location and magnitude. The method utilizes probability distributions from an intensity/ground motion data set along with a ground motion attenuation relation to estimate the ground motion from intensity. The ground motions with the highest probabilities are the ones most likely experienced at the site of the MMI observation. We test the method using MMI/ground motion data from California and published ground motion attenuation relations to estimate the ground motions for several earthquakes: 1999 Hector Mine, California (M7.1); 1988 Saguenay, Quebec (M5.9); and 1982 Gaza, New Hampshire (M4.4). In an example where the method is applied to a historic earthquake, we estimate that the peak ground accelerations associated with the 1727 (M;5.2) earthquake at Newbury, Massachusetts, ranged from 0.23 g at Newbury to 0.06 g at Boston. [DOI: 10.1193/1.1596549]

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility-functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps. tions at the site locations where the damage is reported, especially in the absence of nearby strong motion records. In contrast, analytical fragility relationships are derived using physics-based models, often by incorporating both linear and nonlinear seismic response characteristics of a complex multidegree freedom model of a real-life structure. For a new archetypical but complex system, analytical fragility functions could provide better predictive capabilities. Within analytical methods, multiple approaches can be employed to study seismic response. The models must be calibrated using experimental data otherwise inaccuracies introduced in the modeling process can lead to dissimilar estimates given inappropriate characterization of strength and stiffness deterioration of individual elements and its impact on the global response or redistribution process. Modeling local or global collapse failure for such a structure adds another level of complexity that requires careful considerations. Though significant progress has been made in the last decade or so, challenges still remain, including propagating nonlinear structural response behavior through to adequate inference of structural collapse (Villaverde, 2007). Expert elicitation has been used in the past to assess structural vulnerability of building types in the realm of regional loss estimation. The pioneering Applied Technology Council’s ATC-13 approach, which relied on a modified version of the Delphi (Dalkey, 1969) expert elicitation procedure, was the most prominent application for obtaining probabilities of damage defined in terms of a damage factor (the ratio of earthquake dollar damage divided by the facility replacement value) at various levels of ground motion intensity for selected facility classes found in California (ATC-13, 1985). The ATC-13 questionnaire process required experts to rate their self-experience and confidence levels in each of their assessments, which subsequently were used to estimate expert-specific weights for combining multiple judgments. In this article, we provide a detailed account of the application of Cooke’s Method as an alternative to the Delphi self-weighting approach in the specific application of seismic vulnerability estimation. We discuss several key facets associated with the process, such as identifying experts, constructing seed and target questions, eliciting expert judgments, and combining multiple judgments in order to construct building typology-specific generic collapse-fragility curves. We anticipate that the resulting fragility curves will find application in both the GEM earthquake loss estimation engine and the PAGER system. 2 EXPERT ELICITATION PROCESS

The California Institute of Technology (Caltech), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and the California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) are completing the implementation of TriNet, a modern seismic information system for southern California. TriNet consists of two elements, the Caltech-USGS element and the CDMG element (Mori et al., 1998). The Caltech-USGS element (Caltech-USGS TriNet) concentrates on rapid notification and archiving of data for seismological applications, while the CDMG element is focused on the needs of engineering users (Hauksson et al., 2002). All three. TriNet agencies are working toward facilitating emergency response and long-term mitigation of earthquake hazards in cooperation with other agencies. The technical development of Caltech-USGS TriNet is sufficiently different from the CDMG element of TriNet to warrant a separate description. This paper provides a technical overview of the design principles of Caltech-USGS TriNet. These principles were based on a document that stated the scientific requirements of TriNet (Jones et al., 1997). We also describe the implementation of these principles using modern technology. The implementation consisted of station deployments, establishing communications links, and developing and implementing new hardware and software for data processing and information distribution. Thus, the Caltech-USGS TriNet is an integrated project extending across many disciplines, using basic ground-motion data and seismological algorithms to generate in near real-time a sophisticated earthquake knowledge base following earthquakes in southern California. Caltech-USGS TriNet applies advanced technology to record both small and large earthquakes on scale. The latest generation of broadband and strong-motion sensors with 24-bit digitizers is used to acquire high-fidelity ground-motion data. Real-time communication is a requirement to facilitate rapid processing and notification about seismicity for emergency management. The data acquisition systems are designed to ensure redundancy and automated processing of data. To accomplish automation, high-speed computers and advanced software form the inner workings of the Caltech-USGS TriNet system. Adopting the commercial database Oracle is an important foundation of our data management system. The automated flow of data into an accessible data center and the automatic population of the database is part of our new seismic network design and is an essential feature of Caltech-USGS TriNet. The TriNet real-time systems and database have been operating online for more than two years, processing real-time data currently from more than 375 stations, or more than 1,200 high sample-rate data channels. Many of these capabilities were tested in the 1999 M_w 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake. New postprocessing and catalog-generation approaches have also been implemented in 2001. Caltech-USGS TriNet is one of the first U.S. regional seismic networks that uses digital technology on a scale of 200 or more stations, with both broadband and strongmotion sensors. In comparison, the IRIS Global Seismic Network consists of 108 stations, with plans for a total of 150 stations (Hutt and Bolton, 1999). Previous digital networks, such as TERRAscope (Kanamori et al., 1997) and the Berkeley Digital Seismic Network (BDSN) (Gee et aL, 1996), have been smaller than TriNet, with about 20 stations each. TriNet also benefits from the experience of other seismic networks around the world. The K-Net in Japan is another example of large-scale deployment of a digital network, although it is focused on strong motions (Kinoshita, 1998). Extensive developments of strong-motion networks in Taiwan and associated near-real-time processing of data employ somewhat different technology but have similar goals for information products following large earthquakes (Teng et al., 1997).

INTRODUCTION The most common information available immediately following a damaging earthquake is its magnitude and the epicentral location. However, it is also desirable to know the extent of the felt area, and, more important, the range of shaking experienced and the areal extent of strongest shaking. For most of the United States, there is insufficient seismic strong-motion station coverage to portray quickly and accurately the extent of strong shaking. Seismic intensity has been traditionally used worldwide as a method for quantifying the shaking pattern and the extent of damage for earthquakes. Though developed prior to the advent of today's modern seismometric instrumentation, seismic intensity scales nonetheless provide a useful framework to describe, in a simplified fashion, the complexity of ground motions and the extent and nature of the damage. A limitation of traditional intensity mapping has been the long time required to generate a detailed seismic intensity map, typically weeks...

Rapid (3-5 minutes) generation of maps of instrumental ground-motion and shaking intensity is accomplished through advances in real-time seismographic data acquisition combined with newly developed relationships between recorded ground-motion parameters and expected shaking intensity values. Estimation of shaking over the entire regional extent of southern California is obtained by the spatial interpolation of the measured ground motions with geologically based frequency and amplitude-dependent site corrections. Production of the maps is automatic, triggered by any significant earthquake in southern California. Maps are now made available within several minutes of the earthquake for public and scientific consumption via the World Wide Web; they will be made available with dedicated communications for emergency response agencies and critical users.

Introduction Earthquake strong-motion data are useful for a wide array of seismological and engineering research and applications. Unfortunately, strong-motion data are often difficult to acquire. While they are available from a diverse set of organizations and services, knowing where to look in order to retrieve a particular set of records is, to put it nicely, complicated. This brief summary is intended to provide information on obtaining strong-motion records online (or in other digital form), contacting data sources, retrieving ground-motion parameters, and accessing products and information pertaining to strong ground motions. The advent of the Internet has certainly made the acquisition of strong-motion data from recording organizations easier. However, there are many such organizations, and few have easy, direct approaches for providing the data to other users. Although I am not directly associated with any data source, I presently receive at least 5 requests per month for strong-motion data, simply because...

This chapter summarizes the state-of-the-art for rapid earthquake impact estimation. It details the needs and challenges associated with quick estimation of earthquake losses following global earthquakes, and provides a brief literature review of various approaches that have been used in the past. With this background, the chapter introduces the operational earthquake loss estimation system developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) known as PAGER (for Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response). It also details some of the ongoing developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models to better supplement the operational empirical models, and to produce value-added web content for a variety of PAGER users.

We present a rupture model of the Northridge earthquake, determined from the joint inversion of near-source strong ground motion recordings, P and SH teleseismic body waves, Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement vectors, and permanent uplift measured along leveling lines. The fault is defined to strike 122° and dip 40° to the south-southwest. The average rake vector is determined to be 101°, and average slip is 1.3 m; the peak slip reaches about 3 m. Our estimate of the seismic moment is 1.3 ± 0.2 × 1026 dyne-cm (potency of 0.4 km3). The rupture area is small relative to the overall aftershock dimensions and is approximately 15 km along strike, nearly 20 km in the dip direction, and there is no indication of slip shallower than about 5 to 6 km. The up-dip, strong-motion velocity waveforms are dominated by large S-wave pulses attributed to source directivity and are comprised of at least 2 to 3 distinct arrivals (a few seconds apart). Stations at southern azimuths indicate two main S-wave arrivals separated longer in time (about 4 to 5 sec). These observations are best modeled with a complex distribution of subevents: The initial S-wave arrival comes from an asperity that begins at the hypocenter and extends up-dip and to the north where a second, larger subevent is centered (about 12 km away). The secondary S arrivals at southern azimuths are best fit with additional energy radiation from another high slip region at a depth of 19 km, 8 km west of the hypocenter. The resolving power of the individual data sets is examined by predicting the geodetic (GPS and leveling) displacements with the dislocation model determined from the waveform data, and vice versa, and also by analyzing how well the teleseismic solution predicts the recorded strong motions. The general features of the geodetic displacements are not well predicted from the model determined independently from the strong-motion data; likewise, the slip model determined from geodetic data does not adequately reproduce the strong-motion characteristics. Whereas a particularly smooth slip pattern is sufficient to satisfy the geodetic data, the strong-motion and teleseismic data require a more heterogeneous slip distribution in order to reproduce the velocity amplitudes and frequency content. Although the teleseismic model can adequately reproduce the overall amplitude and frequency content of the strong-motion velocity recordings, it does a poor job of predicting the geodetic data. Consequently, a robust representation of the slip history and heterogeneity requires a combined analysis of these data sets.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) “Did You Feel It?” (DYFI) system is an automated approach for rapidly collecting macroseismic intensity data from Internet users’ shaking and damage reports and generating intensity maps immediately following earthquakes; it has been operating for over a decade (1999-2011). DYFI-based intensity maps made rapidly available through the DYFI system fundamentally depart from more traditional maps made available in the past. The maps are made more quickly, provide more complete coverage and higher resolution, provide for citizen input and interaction, and allow data collection at rates and quantities never before considered. These aspects of Internet data collection, in turn, allow for data analyses, graphics, and ways to communicate with the public, opportunities not possible with traditional data-collection approaches. Yet web-based contributions also pose considerable challenges, as discussed herein. After a decade of operational experience with the DYFI system and users, we document refinements to the processing and algorithmic procedures since DYFI was first conceived. We also describe a number of automatic post-processing tools, operations, applications, and research directions, all of which utilize the extensive DYFI intensity datasets now gathered in near-real time. DYFI can be found online at the website http://earthquake.usgs.gov/dyfi/.

The advent of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, in conjunction with several recent advances and trends in related data sources and research efforts, bring to light new opportunities within the overlapping realms of earthquake hazard, earthquake engineering, and earthquake epidemiological studies. While casualty modelling has admittedly often suffered from the lack of epidemiological rigour on the part of earth scientists and engineers, comparable laxity is also evident in some analyses of related hazard complexities on the part of social scientists. These limitations have often been due to insufficient oversight or interaction, or more commonly, insufficient data availability. Thanks to improved data sets, modelling approaches, and collaborations, there are now fewer obstacles to performing comprehensive casualty estimation, though formidable challenges remain. Under the auspices of the PAGER system, a global set of ShakeMaps has been produced for all significant earthquakes in the past 34 years (1973–2007). These event-specific ShakeMaps, constrained by any available data, are then combined with new global population data sets to develop systematic hazard and loss analyses. These and other important advancements, as well as their limitations, and their potential for contributing to casualty modelling are discussed. Example studies and applications are presented.

Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

Following a major earthquake, one of Caltrans' most critical tasks is to assess the condition of all potentially impacted bridges and roadway corridors in the state highway system. Timely response is important to ensure public safety, guide emergency vehicle traffic, and re-establish critical lifeline routes. In the past, bridge inspection teams had difficulties setting priorities immediately following an earthquake, because they lacked precise information about where the worst shaking and, most likely, the greatest damage had occurred. In 2005 Caltrans initiated a contract with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop and implement a Caltrans-specific version of their ShakeCast system, a post-event software analysis tool that was anticipated to change the way Caltrans responds following a major earthquake. ShakeCast is a web-based application that automatically retrieves measured earthquake shaking data, analyzes it against individual bridge performance characteristics, and generates inspection prioritization emails and other web-based products for emergency responders within minutes of an event. Benefits have already been realized over the course of the test deployment phase. The ShakeCast system has proved to be a valuable tool for post-earthquake response for Caltrans during real events as well as for scenario planning exercises.

We investigate the rupture process of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake using extensive near-source observations, including three-component velocity waveforms at 36 strong motion stations and 119 GPS measurements. A three-plane fault geometry derived from our previous inversion using only static data [ Ji et al., 2001 ] is applied. The slip amplitude, rake angle, rupture initiation time, and risetime function are inverted simultaneously with a recently developed finite fault inverse method that combines a wavelet transform approach with a simulated annealing algorithm [ Ji et al., 2002b ]. The inversion results are validated by the forward prediction of an independent data set, the teleseismic P and SH ground velocities, with notable agreement. The results show that the total seismic moment release of this earthquake is 2.7 × 10^20 N m and that most of the slip occurred in a triangular-shaped asperity involving two fault segments, which is consistent with our previous static inversion. The rupture front propagates with an average rupture velocity of ∼2.0 km s^(−1), and the average slip duration (risetime) is 7.2 s. Several interesting observations related to the temporal evolution of the Chi-Chi earthquake are also investigated, including (1) the strong effect of the sinuous fault plane of the Chelungpu fault on spatial and temporal variations in slip history, (2) the intersection of fault 1 and fault 2 not being a strong impediment to the rupture propagation, and (3) the observation that the peak slip velocity near the surface is, in general, higher than on the deeper portion of the fault plane, as predicted by dynamic modeling.

We report on the fault complexity of the large (M_w = 7.6) Chi‐Chi earthquake obtained by inverting densely and well‐distributed static measurements consisting of 119 GPS and 23 doubly integrated strong motion records. We show that the slip of the Chi-Chi earthquake was concentrated on the surface of a ”wedge shaped” block. The inferred geometric complexity explains the difference between the strike of the fault plane determined by long period seismic data and surface break observations. When combined with other geophysical and geological observations, the result provides a unique snapshot of tectonic deformation taking place in the form of very large (>10m) displacements of a massive wedge‐shaped crustal block which may relate to the changeover from over‐thrusting to subducting motion between the Philippine Sea and the Eurasian plates.

Occurrence of large earthquakes close to cities in California is inevitable. The resulting ground shaking will subject buildings in the near-source region to large, rapid displacement pulses which are not represented in design codes. The simulated Mw7.0 earthquake on a blind-thrust fault used in this study produces peak ground displacement and velocity of 200 cm and 180 cm/sec, respectively. Over an area of several hundred square kilometers in the near-source region, flexible frame and base-isolated buildings would experience severe nonlinear behavior including the possibility of collapse at some locations. The susceptibility of welded connections to fracture significantly increases the collapse potential of steel-frame buildings under strong ground motions of the type resulting from the Mw7.0 simulation. Because collapse of a building depends on many factors which are poorly understood, the results presented here regarding collapse should be interpreted carefully.