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Majority of the time series carry seasonal effects and show cyclical fluctuation patterns. The Census-X12 seasonal adjustment method and the HP filter method are based on factor decomposition theory, which divides the original time series into four parts: long-term trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal characteristics and random fluctuation terms. This paper selects monthly price data of China's major meat products: chicken, beef, mutton and pork from 2009 to 2020 to derive medium and longterm trends, seasonal fluctuations and cyclical patterns in the prices of major meat products. It is found that the X12 seasonal adjustment method and the HP filter method are able to accurately extract the characteristics of different factors in the prices of major meat products in China. The price fluctuation patterns of beef and lamb are basically the same, with a cyclical cycle of 24 and 29 months respectively; the cyclical cycle of pork prices is consistent with that of chicken prices and fluctuates more frequently at random.

In cooperative human communication, the speaker has to mark the connection between his utterance and therefore the given information, because the hearer interprets the utterance regarding the data that has already been obtained. Languages adopt various devices to mark the connection between the utterance and also the context. This paper investigates semantic and pragmatic presupposition in Discourse Representation Theory (DRT) within the Chinese language and enhances the pragmatic perspective of presupposition in DRT.

The measurement and early warning of real estate risk are important to prevent and defuse major financial risks, and they form a basis for high-quality development. This paper assessed the internal and external environments of the real estate market; constructed a real estate risk indicator system from the aspects of market level, real estate enterprises, policy factors and financial institutions; and implemented a PSO-SVM model to measure and warn of real estate risk. Empirical studies were conducted. The results show the following: (1) the synthetic real estate risk index well depicts the cyclical fluctuation of real estate risk in Beijing; (2) the warning model based on the PSO-SVM method exhibits better performance and higher warning accuracy than other models do.

With the gradually maturing super-speed inkjet printing technology, people are pursuing steadier and higher speed as well as better quality presswork for the sake of increasing economic benefit. To provide an overview of the velocity fluctuation of the inkjet machine platform and the cyclical fluctuation of the incremental encoder, external clock and corresponding internal clock were applied separately to print the equally spaced lines under the same platform speed. Then a magnifier was used to measure distance between the lines, according to which the velocity fluctuation mentioned above can be obtained. Thus conclusion can be drawn from the fluctuation analysis that the velocity cycle of platform is 60mm, however, number of those produced by the incremental encoder is up to 3, including 60mm influenced by the platform, 300mm produced by the perimeter of encoders pressure wheel and 600mm produced by the circumference of dance roller. Furthermore, dance roller contributes more influence on narrow coated paper. Through this research, inkjet technician can do directional compensation for every factors to reduce the fluctuation.

Seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand have resulted in power cuts in peak periods in China. This paper finds that the main component of fluctuations in electricity demand of secondary industry consists of four high energy consumption industries. The fluctuations in electricity demand of steel are relevant to the fluctuations in automobile sales. The energy consumption of tertiary industry is highly consistent with the seasonal fluctuations in residential electricity consumption, which is mainly affected by extreme weather conditions. In view of the transmission mechanism of the seasonal fluctuations in electricity demand from the demand side, to improve energy efficiency, electricity companies can adopt the strategy of price discrimination to smooth the seasonal fluctuations in demand.

Inflows of remittances to Pakistan are being increasingly viewed as a relatively attractive source of external finance, one that can help to foster development and manage economic shocks. Remittances have become a major source of revenue, surpassing the volume of FDI and official development assistance that the country receives. This study focuses primarily on the stability, cyclicality and stabilization impacts of migrant remittances to Pakistan. It is evident that foreign inflows exhibit different types of volatility; remittances are found to be a less volatile source of external finance than FDI and ODA that are counter-cyclical and stabilizing, thus serving to steady the recipient economy in times of economic downturns. ODA appears to be acyclical and stabilizing, whereas FDI emerges as pro-cyclical and destabilizing. Furthermore, remittances are insensitive to cyclical fluctuation in source countries. We also proceed with SVAR-based identification in order to examine the responses of financial flows to innovation in receiving and source economies. We confirm the counter-cyclical mechanism of remittances with Pakistani output. In particular, our results indicate that remittance flows to Pakistan are mainly due to the economic conditions in the receiving economy.

The business cycle was “discovered” (in the nineteenth century) when the idea of a static economy which did not progress was abandoned and that of a dynamic economy which developed, grew and experienced phases of difficulty or crises gained ground. It would appear to be the characteristics of growth which determine the fluctuating trend of the economy, which tends to draw near or away from a given equilibrium point which is not stable but dynamic, that is to say it increases or decreases depending on the specific trend.

Data from the South-Verona Psychiatric Case Register were used to cast light on seasonal variation in the demand for extramural psychiatric care. Using harmonic analysis, a complex pattern of seasonal variation emerged, but the first harmonic (1 cycle per year) was consistently the most important. This applied to both sexes and to all diagnostic groups examined, except schizophrenic psychosis. The seasonal variation in extramural contacts could not be accounted for by variation in the number of patients in contact, but was found to be partly due to variations in the availability and supply of psychiatric care. Our examination of the amplitude of the cyclical fluctuation led us to conclude that is has trivial implications for service organization, thus supporting previous findings from the primary medical care setting.

We have now developed a simple macro-model of the economy. What we have sought to explain are the cyclical fluctuations depicted by the broken line in the following diagram. The upward trend of the unbroken line represents secular growth (see Chapters 19 and 20).

ONE of the most clearly defined and closely studied phenomena in the movement of agricultural prices in Great Britain has been the recurring cycle in the prices and numbers of pigs. This cycle had seemed to be adequately explained by the " cobweb theorem." The cycle has generally been attributed in most of the important pig-producing countries to the time which producers take to expand or contract production when faced by a particularly favourable or unfavourable ratio of pig prices to the prices of the more important feeding stuffs used for pigs, and to the fact that most individual producers forget that others will act in the same way as they themselves. Messrs. Coase and Fowler have criticised this analysis on three main grounds.' Firstly, they question the use of the ratio of pig prices to feeding-stuff prices as a measure of the stimulus -given to increase or decrease the number of pigs. Secondly, they contend that, if farmers react immediately to changes in the profitability of pig feeding, the cycle would have a two-year period instead of the three and a half to fouryear period actually observed. Finally, they attempt to show statistically that pig producers do not, in fact, expect existing pig prices and costs to remain unchanged. Having thus rejected the essential points in the explanation which was accepted by the Reorganisation Commission for Pigs and Pig Products,2 they suggest that the true explanation of the cycle in this country may rest in the variations of demand, and in the response of foreign producers to price changes. They have not yet indicated how these factors can cause a cyclical fluctuation of the observed period, nor is it easy to see how they can have this effect. Messrs. Coase