1. Nomogram for predicting overall survival in stage II‐III colorectal cancer
- Author
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Jungang Liu, Lingxu Huang, Weizhong Tang, Weishun Xie, Shaomei Chen, Xiaoliang Huang, Xianwei Mo, Zhengtian Li, Wenkang Yang, Franco Jeen, Chunyin Wei, Guo Wu, Chan Li, Chao Tian, and Chuqiao Zhang
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Oncology ,Male ,Cancer Research ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Colorectal cancer ,colorectal cancer ,Logistic regression ,lcsh:RC254-282 ,survival ,nomogram ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Risk Factors ,Internal medicine ,Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols ,Overall survival ,Medicine ,Humans ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Mean platelet volume ,Survival analysis ,Original Research ,Aged ,Neoplasm Staging ,Retrospective Studies ,business.industry ,Proportional hazards model ,Univariate ,Clinical Cancer Research ,Nomogram ,Middle Aged ,lcsh:Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens ,medicine.disease ,Survival Rate ,Nomograms ,030104 developmental biology ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Female ,prognosis ,business ,Colorectal Neoplasms ,Follow-Up Studies ,SEER Program - Abstract
Purpose The overall survival (OS) of patients diagnosed with stage II‐III colorectal cancer (CRC) can vary greatly, even between patients with the same tumor stage. We aimed to design a nomogram to predict OS in resected, stage II‐III CRC and stratify patients with CRC into different risk groups. Patients and Methods Based on data from 873 patients with CRC, we used univariate Cox regression analysis to select the significant prognostic features, which were subjected to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression algorithm for feature selection. Cross‐validation was used to confirm suitable tuning parameters (λ) for LASSO logistic regression. Then, the nomogram was used to estimate 3‐ and 5‐year OS based on the multivariable Cox regression model. The survival curves of the two groups were produced using the Kaplan‐Meier method. Risk group stratification was performed to assess the predictive capacity of the nomogram. Results Preoperative mean platelet volume, preoperative platelet distribution width, monocytes, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors by LASSO regression and integrated for the construction of the nomogram. The nomogram provided good discrimination, with C‐indices of 0.67 and 0.69 for the training and validation sets, respectively. Calibration plots illustrated excellent agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual observations for 3‐ and 5‐year OS. Moreover, a significant difference in OS was shown between patients stratified into different risk groups (P, Four points are allocated for preoperative mean platelet volume, preoperative platelet distribution width, monocytes, and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy. Nomogram for predicting 3‐ and 5‐year probabilities of colorectal cancer patients was established. Draw a vertical straight line from the variable value to the axis labeled “Points”. Then calculate all variables’ points. The total points on the bottom scales that correspond to the 3‐ and 5‐year survival were showed apparently.
- Published
- 2020