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Purpose Porto-systemic pressure gradient is used to prognosticate rebleeding and resolution of ascites after TIPS. This study investigates the reliability of portal pressure characteristics as quantified immediately after TIPS placement and at short-term control. Patients and Methods Portal venous pressure (PVP) and right atrial pressure (RAP) were prospectively obtained before and after TIPS as well as ≥ 48 h after TIPS procedure. Porto-systemic pressure gradients (PSG) and pressure changes were calculated. A multivariate regression analysis was performed to predict portal hemodynamics at short-term control. Results The study included 124 consecutive patients. Indications for TIPS were refractory ascites, variceal bleeding or combinations of both. Pre- and post-interventional PSG yielded 16.4 ± 5.3 mmHg and 5.9 ± 2.7 mmHg, respectively. At that time, 105/124 patients (84.7%) met the target (PSG ≤ 8 mmHg). After 4 days (median), PSG was 8.5 ± 3.5 mmHg and only 66 patients (53%) met that target. In patients exceeding the target PSG at follow-up, PVP was significantly higher and RAP was lower resulting in the increased PSG. The highly variable changes of RAP were the main contributor to different pressure gradients. In the multivariate regression analysis, PVP and RAP immediately after TIPS were predictors for PSG at short-term control with moderately predictive capacity (AUC = 0.75). Conclusion Besides the reduction of portal vein pressure, the highly variable right atrial pressure was the main contributor to different pressure gradients. Thus, immediate post-TIPS measurements do not reliably predict portal hemodynamics during follow-up. These findings need to be further investigated with respect to the corresponding clinical course of the patients.

Aim: To determine a recommended Phase II dose of the oral fluoropyrimidine trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) combined with the multi-kinase inhibitor regorafenib (REG) in refractory metastatic colorectal cancer patients. Materials & methods: A conventional 3 + 3 dose finding design was used. FTD/TPI was administered on days 1–5 and 8–12 of a 28-day cycle, REG on days 2–22. Two dose levels were used: FTD/TPI 25 mg/m2 b.i.d. + REG 120 mg/d, then escalated to FTD/TPI 35 mg/m2 b.i.d. + REG 120 mg/d. Results: In total, 12 patients were treated at two dose levels. Three dose-limiting toxicities were observed; all were grade 3 hypertension causally attributed to REG. Recommended Phase II dose is FTD/TPI 25 mg/m2 b.i.d. + REG 120 mg/d. Median progression-free survival was 3.81 months (95% CI: 1.51–5.29), median OS 11.1 months (95% CI: 2.3–18.2). Conclusion: The combination of REG and FTD/TPI is feasible and safe. Efficacy signals exceed that of the single agents at acceptable toxicity levels and are clinically meaningful.

Adjuvant colon cancer (CC) therapy and survival have greatly evolved over the last decades. Research shifted towards a more biological tumour understanding and unlocked new therapies and disease mo...

Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) depends on the stage of disease. In the Western Hemisphere, the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer classification (BCLC) is the preferred staging system. Approximately one-third of patients initially present with intermediate-stage disease. For these patients, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the treatment of choice. However, the intermediate-stage comprises a heterogeneous subgroup of patients with considerable differences in tumor burden and liver function. In addition, differences in individual factors that are not captured by the BCLC framework, such as the tumor growth pattern, degree of hypervascularity, and vascular supply, complicate further evaluation of these patients. Due to these differences, not all patients benefit equally from TACE. Several tools and scoring systems have been devised to provide decision-making support. All of these have shown promising initial results but failed external evaluation and have not been translated to the clinic. Nevertheless, criteria for objectifying treatment decisions in daily clinical practice are needed in all stages of disease. Therefore, this review provides a concise practical step-by-step guide on current strategies for patient selection and decision-making, with a focus on TACE, to critically evaluate the existing decision-support tools and provide a summary of the latest updates in the field.

Background Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide. Novel prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to improve patient management. Alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) is a well‐established and widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, diagnostic accuracy of static AFP values is limited and the clinical potential is a matter of ongoing scientific discussion. Objective We here evaluated the prognostic impact of pretreatment static and dynamic AFP variables on overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in a Western cohort. Methods Patients with confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 809) treated at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz between 1998 and 2014 and two available pretreatment AFP‐values (AFP‐slope) were retrospectively analysed. Clinicopathological baseline parameters, pretreatment static values and AFP‐slope were assessed. Prognostic impact was determined by Kaplan–Meier analyses and Cox regression models. Results High static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy were associated with reduced survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Several known clinical parameters such as Child–Pugh B (p < 0.01) and C stage (p, Key Summary Alpha‐fetoprotein (AFP) is the most commonly used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), but accuracy of static and dynamic AFP values is limited and the prognostic significance is under debate.High static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy are associated with reduced survival rates of HCC patients across different tumour stages and treatment modalities.In patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP‐slope prior to therapy was a better predictor for overall survival in comparison with static AFP values.Addition of AFP‐slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of HCC.

Background The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system has been endorsed by international guidelines as a staging algorithm of hepatocellular carcinoma. This analysis was performed to assess the outcome of liver transplantation in patients treated against the BCLC recommendations. Methods The data of 198 patients who underwent liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma were extracted from a prospectively maintained database to classify the patients according to the BCLC system. Results BCLC staging was as follows: 0, n = 5; A, n = 77; B, n = 41; C, n = 53; and D, n = 22. Accordingly, liver transplantation was performed in the majority of patients against BCLC recommendations. Surgery (n = 16), radiofrequency ablation (n = 15) and transarterial chemoembolization (n = 151) preceded liver transplantation in 182 patients. Sixteen patients were transplanted without pretreatment. The1-, 5- and 10-year survival rates were 83.8%, 62.4% and 45.9%, and 1-, 5-, and 10-year recurrence rates were 7.7%, 22.7% and 26.7%. The BCLC classification did neither impact survival (P = 0.796) nor recurrence (P = 0.693). In the Cox analysis, RECIST tumor progression and initial alpha fetoprotein were independent predictors of outcome. Conclusions Neither the oncological nor the functional stratification imposed by the BCLC system was of importance for outcome. Lack of flexibility and disregard of biological parameters hamper its clinical applicability in liver transplantation.

Purpose The model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been shown to predict 3-month prognosis following transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent shunt (TIPS) in liver cirrhosis; however, that score was derived from a mixed cohort, including patients with refractory ascites and variceal bleeding. This study re-evaluates the role of the MELD score and focuses on differences between both groups of patients. Methods A total of 301 patients (192 male and 109 female) received TIPS, 213 because of refractory ascites and 88 because of variceal bleeding. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were performed to identify predictors of mortality and area under the receiver operator characteristics (AUROC) were used to assess the prognostic capacity of the MELD score and of the results of predictors of the multivariate analyses. Results In refractory ascites, age, bilirubin and albumin were independent predictors of mortality. In variceal bleeding, emergency TIPS during ongoing bleeding, concomitant grade III ascites, history of hepatic encephalopathy, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, bilirubin and platelet count proved significant. AUROCs of the MELD score for 3-month survival yielded 0.543 and 0.836 for refractory ascites and variceal bleeding, respectively (P

The multikinase inhibitor sorafenib was the only approved systemic therapy in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for about a decade. In recent years, the number of approved agents has increased significantly as a result of a number of positive phase iii clinical trials. Lenvatinib as a first-line treatment, and regorafenib, cabozantinib, and ramucirumab in the second-line setting are now approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency. In phase II studies, immunotherapy with nivolumab and monotherapy using pembrolizumab yielded impressive results for overall survival in therapy-naïve and pretreated patients, leading to the accelerated approval by the FDA of nivolumab and pembrolizumab for second-line treatment. However, phase III trials of nivolumab in the first line and pembrolizumab in the second line as single agents failed to reach statistical significance, although clinical benefit for a subset of patients with long durations of response could be demonstrated. Despite that setback, immunotherapy for HCC is a promising therapeutic approach, and the combination of immunotherapy with other treatment modalities such as monoclonal antibodies, tyrosine kinase inhibitors, or local therapies has the potential to increase the overall response rate and survival. Recently, the results of a phase III trial of combination atezolizumab–bevacizumab compared with sorafenib showed a highly significant survival benefit and median overall survival that was not reached in the immunotherapy arm, making the combination the preferred standard of care in first-line therapy. Despite the impressive results and generally good toxicity profile of immunotherapy, patients who respond to therapy constitute only a subset of the overall population, and response rates are still limited. This review focuses on the currently reported results and ongoing clinical trials of checkpoint inhibitor–based immunotherapy in HCC.

Predictive factors for adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19 are urgently needed. Data related to the applicability of the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) for risk stratification in patients with COVID-19 are currently lacking. We investigated the ability of CFS to predict need for mechanical ventilation and the duration of hospital stays in European patients with COVID-19. In total, 42 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection admitted to the University Medical Center Mainz between March 3 and April 15 2020 were included into this validation study and data were retrospectively analyzed. CFS was assessed at admission in all patients. Patients were followed for need for mechanical ventilation and time to hospital discharge. At admission, the median CFS was 3 (range: 1-7) and 14 (33.3%) patients were considered as at least pre-frail (CFS >3). 24 (57.1%) patients were discharged from hospital after a median time of 7 days (IQR 4-8). 12 (28.6%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and required mechanical ventilation. In multivariable Cox regression analyses, higher CFS scores (HR 1.659, 95% CI 1.090 to 2.525, p=0.018) were an independent predictor for a higher risk of mechanical ventilation after adjusting for age, Charlson Comorbidity Index and quick sepsis-related organ failure score. Additionally, lower CFS scores (HR 0.554, 95% CI 0.312 to 0.983, p=0.043) were associated with earlier discharge from hospital. In conclusion, this report demonstrates the usefulness of the CFS for risk stratification at hospital admission in patients with COVID-19.

Purpose Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 has been established as the main serum marker for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of CA 19-9 changes versus response determined by imaging in patients with ICC undergoing chemotherapy. Methods Between 2003 and 2018, 151 patients with histopathologically confirmed ICC underwent chemotherapy at our tertiary care center for non-resectable or recurrent ICC, of whom 121 were included in this study. Serum CA 19-9 levels and imaging were retrospectively evaluated during chemotherapy. Log-rank testing and optimal stratification were used to classify patients into risk groups. Results Prior to chemotherapy, baseline serum CA 19-9 levels above the previously published cut-off of 37 U/ml were associated with poor survival (median OS 8.7 vs. 12.4 months, p = 0.003). After the beginning of chemotherapy, an increase in CA 19-9 of more than 40 U/ml resulted in impaired residual survival (median OS 5.0 vs. 12.1 months, p p Conclusion In our study, the disease control rate—that is, the absence of progressive disease—was the strongest predictor of prolonged residual OS. To this end, both CA 19-9 changes and progressive disease on initial follow-up showed remarkable discriminatory power, with the latter slightly outperforming the former. Therefore, imaging should remain the mainstay of patient evaluation during follow-up.

Background and aim Safety of regorafenib in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) has been recently demonstrated. We aimed to assess the survival benefit of regorafenib compared to best supportive care (BSC) in LT-patients after sorafenib discontinuation. Methods This observational multicenter retrospective study included LT-patients with HCC-recurrence who discontinued first-line sorafenib. Group-1 was constituted by regorafenib-treated patients, while control group was selected among patients treated with best supportive care (BSC) due to unavailability of second-line options at the time of sorafenib discontinuation and who were sorafenib-tolerant progressors (group-2). Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) of group-1 compared to group-2. Secondary endpoints were safety and OS of sequential treatment sorafenib+regorafenib/BSC. Results Among 132 LT-patients who discontinued sorafenib included in the study, 81 patients were sorafenib-tolerant: 36 received regorafenib (group-1) and 45 (group-2) received BSC. Overall, 24 (67%) patients died in group-1 and 40 (89%) in group-2: the median OS was significantly longer in group-1 than in group-2 (13.1 vs 5.5 months; p=0.002). Regorafenib treatment was an independent predictor of reduced mortality (HR 0.37, 95%CI 0.16-0.89, p=0.02). Median treatment duration with regorafenib was 7.0 (95%CI 5.5-8.5) months; regorafenib dose was reduced in 22 (61%) patients for adverse events and discontinued for tumor progression in 93%. The median OS calculated from sorafenib start was 28.8 months (95%CI: 17.6-40.1) in group-1 vs 15.3 months (95%CI: 8.8-21.7) in group-2 (p=0.002). Conclusions Regorafenib is an effective second-line treatment after sorafenib in patients with HCC-recurrence after LT.

The novel CRP–albumin–lymphocyte (CALLY) index is an improved immunonutritive scoring system, based on serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum albumin, and the lymphocyte count. It has shown promise as a prognostic index for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) undergoing resections. This study evaluated the prognostic ability of the CALLY index for patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We retrospectively identified 280 treatment-naïve patients with HCC that underwent an initial TACE at our institution, between 2010 and 2020. We compared the CALLY index to established risk factors in univariate and multivariate regression analyses for associations with median overall survival (OS). A low CALLY score was associated with low median OS (low vs. high CALLY: 9.0 vs. 24.0 months, p &lt, 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, the CALLY index remained an independent prognostic predictor (p = 0.008). Furthermore, all factors of the CALLY index reached significance in univariate and in-depth multivariate analyses. However, the concordance index (C-index) of the CALLY index (0.60) was similar to the C-indices of established immunonutritive and inflammation scoring systems (range: 0.54 to 0.63). In conclusion, the CALLY index showed promise as a stratification tool for patients with HCC undergoing TACE. Notably, the CALLY index was not superior to other immunonutritive and inflammation scoring systems in predicting the median OS. Thus, future studies should re-evaluate the mathematical calculation of the index, particularly the contributions of individual parameters.

Induction of neoangiogenesis is a hallmark feature during disease progression of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Antiangiogenetic compounds represent a mainstay of therapeutic approaches; however, development of chemoresistance is observed in the majority of patients. Recent findings suggest that tumor-initiating cells (TICs) may play a key role in acquisition of resistance, but the exact relevance for HCC in this process remains to be defined. Primary and established hepatoma cell lines were exposed to long-term sorafenib treatment to model acquisition of resistance. Treatment effects on TICs were estimated by sphere-forming capacity in vitro, tumorigenicity in vivo, and flow cytometry. Adaptive molecular changes were assessed by whole transcriptome analyses. Compensatory mechanisms of resistance were identified and directly evaluated. Sustained antiproliferative effect following sorafenib treatment was observed in three of six HCC cell lines and was followed by rapid regrowth, thereby mimicking responses observed in patients. Resistant cells showed induction in sphere forming in vitro and tumor-initiating capacity in vivo as well as increased number of side population and epithelial cell adhesion molecule-positive cells. Conversely, sensitive cell lines showed consistent reduction of TIC properties. Gene sets associated with resistance and poor prognosis, including Hippo/yes-associated protein (YAP), were identified. Western blot and immunohistochemistry confirmed increased levels of YAP. Combined treatment of sorafenib and specific YAP inhibitor consistently revealed synergistic antioncogenic effects in resistant cell lines. Conclusion: Resistance to antiangiogenic therapy might be driven by transient expansion of TICs and activation of compensatory pro-oncogenic signaling pathways, including YAP. Specific targeting of TICs might be an effective therapeutic strategy to overcome resistance in HCC.

Nonbacterial thrombotic endocarditis (NBTE) is a rare condition that most often accompanies a malignant disease and involves a hypercoagulable state. We report the incidental finding of a rare case of an NBTE affecting the tricuspid valve in a patient with metastatic pancreatic carcinoma complicated by severe venous and arterial thromboembolisms.

Incidence and mortality of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) have been increasing continuously. Recent studies suggest that the combination of palliative chemotherapy (pCTX) and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) improves overall survival (OS). This study aimed to evaluate the outcome of patients treated with TACE and pCTX in unresectable iCCA at our tertiary care center. A group of 14 patients was treated with both pCTX and TACE. The non-randomized control group of 59 patients received pCTX alone. Patients received a median of two pCTX lines in both groups. Those treated with TACE underwent a median number of 3.5 sessions. Median OS from the time of unresectability was 26.2 months in the pCTX + TACE group versus 13.1 months in the pCTX group (p = 0.008). Controlling for albumin, bilirubin, ECOG (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group) performance status, and UICC (Union for International Cancer Control) stage, the addition of TACE still conferred an OS benefit of 12.95 months (p = 0.014). A propensity score matching analysis yielded an OS benefit of 14 months from the time of unresectability for the pCTX + TACE group (p = 0.020). The addition of TACE to pCTX may provide an OS benefit for patients with unresectable iCCA. Thus, patients with liver-dominant iCCA undergoing standard-of-care pCTX should be considered for additional treatment with TACE.

ObjectivesThe Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI) and Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT) score are immunonutritive scoring systems with proven predictive ability in various cancer entities, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We performed the first evaluation of the CONUT score for patients undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and compared CONUT and PNI in the ability to predict median overall survival (OS).MethodsBetween 2010 and 2020, we retrospectively identified 237 treatment-naïve patients with HCC who underwent initial TACE at our institution. Both scores include the albumin level and total lymphocyte count. The CONUT additionally includes the cholesterol level. Both scores were compared in univariate and multivariate regression analyses taking into account established risk factors. In a second step, a subgroup analysis was performed on BCLC stage B patients, for whom TACE is the recommended first-line treatment.ResultsA high CONUT score and low PNI were associated with impaired median OS (8.7 vs. 22.3 months, pvs. 20.1 months, pvs. 17.9 months, pvs. 22.0 months, pConclusionBoth scores were able to stratify patients according to their median OS, but only the PNI remained an independent prognostic factor. Therefore, PNI should be preferred when evaluating the nutritional status of patients undergoing TACE.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Sarcopenia has emerged as a prognostic parameter in numerous cancer entities. Current research favours its role as a determining factor for overall survival (OS) in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC); however, it is unclear whether sarcopenia is a truly independent survival predictor if combined with established prognostic factors. METHODS Between 1997-2018, 417 patients with histopathologically confirmed ICC were referred to our centre, of whom 293 were included in this study. Cross-sectional imaging, laboratory examinations and histopathological reports were retrospectively analysed. Psoas muscle index (PMI) as easy-to-measure marker of sarcopenia was calculated. Using optimal stratification, sex-specific PMI cut-offs were calculated and tested in hazard regression models against previously published risk factors-for the entire cohort, and within resected and non-resected subgroups. RESULTS Median OS for patients with low respectively high PMI was 23.5 and 34.5 months in the resected subgroup (P = 0.008) and 5.1 and 7.8 months (P = 0.01) in the non-resected subgroup. In multivariate hazard regression models for the entire cohort, low PMI exhibited independent predictive value (P = 0.01) as did translobar tumour spread (P = 0.005), extrahepatic extension (P = 0.03), tumour boundary type (P

Programmed cell death protein-1-targeted immunotherapy has shown promising results in phase II studies of hepatocellular carcinoma.To evaluate safety and efficacy of nivolumab and pembrolizumab in an international, multicentre, real-world cohort of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.Sixty-five patients treated with nivolumab (n = 34) or pembrolizumab (n = 31) between July 10, 2015 and December 31, 2018 (data cut-off) across six centres in Austria and Germany were retrospectively analysed.Child-Pugh class A/B/C was 32 (49%)/28 (43%)/5 (8%). Immunotherapy was used as systemic first-/second-/third-/fourth-line treatment in 9 (14%)/27 (42%)/26 (40%)/3 (5%) patients. Fifty-four patients had at least one follow-up imaging and were, therefore, available for radiological response assessment. The overall response and disease control rates were 12% and 49% respectively. Of 52 evaluable patients, four (8%) had hyperprogressive disease. Median time to progression was 5.5 (95% CI, 3.5-7.4) months, median progression-free survival was 4.6 (95% CI, 3.0-6.2) months, and median overall survival was 11.0 (95% CI, 8.2-13.8) months. Most common adverse events were infections (n = 7), rash (n = 6), pruritus (n = 3), fatigue (n = 3), diarrhoea (n = 3) and hepatitis (n = 3). Efficacy and safety results were comparable between Child-Pugh A and B patients; however, median overall survival (OS) was shorter in Child-Pugh B patients (16.7 vs 8.6 months; P = 0.065). There was no difference in terms of efficacy and adverse events between patients who received immunotherapy as first-/second-line and third-/fourth-line respectively.Programmed cell death protein-1-targeted immunotherapy with nivolumab or pembrolizumab showed promising efficacy and safety in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, including subjects with Child-Pugh stage B and patients with intensive pretreatment.

BACKGROUND Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most lethal cancers. Nutrition- and life style-associated risk factors are increasingly prevalent. Metformin, the mainstay of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM)-treatment, reduces the risk of hepatocarcinogenesis. However, its influence on the prognosis of patients with HCC has not been investigated on a large scale, yet. METHODS Five thousand and ninety-three patients treated for HCC between 2000 and 2016 at three referral centres were included in this retrospective multicentre study. The aim of this study was to assess whether treatment with metformin for T2DM is associated with a prolonged overall survival (OS) in patients diagnosed with HCC. RESULTS Among 5093 patients with HCC, 1917 patients (37.6%) were diagnosed with T2DM, of which 338 (17.6%) received treatment with metformin. Compared to diabetic patients not treated with metformin, patients on metformin had a significantly better hepatic function (Child-Pugh-Score A: 69.2% vs 47.4%, P

Background To date, the cornerstone of treatment in patients with advanced or metastatic cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is systemic chemotherapy based on a combination of gemcitabine and a platinum derivative. Other therapeutic approaches including targeted agents and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have demonstrated disappointing results, highlighting the complexity of CCA. Recently, drugs aiming at the inhibition of HER-receptors have shown first therapeutic benefit in patients with late stage disease. The aim of this phase I study was to test the dose level toxicities (DLTs), safety and efficacy of afatinib, a highly specific panErbB family receptor TKI, in chemotherapy naive patients with advanced CCA in conjunction with an extensive biomarker program. Methods Afatinib was administered continuously p. o. as add-on in patients with advanced CCA who received conventional chemotherapy with gemcitabine/cisplatin. A classical 3 + 3 phase I study was employed, while the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of oral afatinib was determined in a 2 step dose escalation. Safety, overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) were evaluated for all patients. Finally, a translational biomarker analysis was conducted for the EGFR and VEGF signalling cascades. Results Overall, 9 patients were enrolled. Further recruitment was discontinued due to lack of efficacy results of the tested drug in other indications. 30 mg afatinib could be safely administered as add-on to 80% of standard dose gemcitabine/cisplatin. The mOS and mPFS were 7.7 and 6.0 months, respectively. Diarrhoea and haematological disorders were the most common observed AEs. Almost all patients overexpressed EGFR on their tumour tissues, whereas none of them expressed mutations in Exons 18, 19 and 21. Non-responders showed a higher variation of VEGF-C, −D, leptin and sEGFR in their sera. Conclusions Afatinib failed to show survival benefits in combination with gemcitabine/cisplatin in patients with advanced CCA. Mutational analysis of EGFR and pathways associated with VEGF-C, −D and leptin might show promising results in future studies. Clinical trials registration NCT01679405 August, 2012. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-5223-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

(1) Background: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is a rare malignancy. Besides tumor, nodal, and metastatic status, the UICC TNM classification describes further parameters such as lymphangio- (L0/L1), vascular (V0/V1/V2), and perineural invasion (Pn0/Pn1). The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of these parameters on recurrence and survival. (2) Methods: All surgical explorations for patients with ICC between January 2008 and June 2018 were collected and further analyzed in our institutional database. Statistical analyses focused on perineural, lymphangio-, and vascular invasion examined histologically and their influence on tumor recurrence and survival. (3) Results: Of 210 patients who underwent surgical exploration, 150 underwent curative-intended resection. Perineural invasion was present in 41, lymphangioinvasion in 21, and vascular invasion in 37 patients (V1 n = 34, V2 n = 3). Presence of P1, V+ and L1 was significantly associated with positivity of each other of these factors (p &lt, 0.001, each). None of the three parameters showed direct influence on tumor recurrence in general, but perineural invasion influenced extrahepatic recurrence significantly (p = 0.019). Whereas lymphangio and vascular invasion was neither associated with overall nor recurrence-free survival, perineural invasion was significantly associated with a poor 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of 80%, 35%, and 23% for Pn0 versus 75%, 23%, and 0% for Pn1 (p = 0.027). Concerning recurrence-free survival (RFS), Pn0 showed a 1-, 3- and 5-year RFS of 42%, 18%, and 16% versus 28%, 11%, and 0% for Pn1, but no significance was reached (p = 0.091). (4) Conclusions: Whereas lymphangio- and vascular invasion showed no significant influence in several analyses, the presence of perineural invasion was associated with a significantly higher risk of extrahepatic tumor recurrence and worse overall survival.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can have viral or non-viral causes1–5. Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is an important driver of HCC. Immunotherapy has been approved for treating HCC, but biomarker-based stratification of patients for optimal response to therapy is an unmet need6,7. Here we report the progressive accumulation of exhausted, unconventionally activated CD8+PD1+ T cells in NASH-affected livers. In preclinical models of NASH-induced HCC, therapeutic immunotherapy targeted at programmed death-1 (PD1) expanded activated CD8+PD1+ T cells within tumours but did not lead to tumour regression, which indicates that tumour immune surveillance was impaired. When given prophylactically, anti-PD1 treatment led to an increase in the incidence of NASH–HCC and in the number and size of tumour nodules, which correlated with increased hepatic CD8+PD1+CXCR6+, TOX+, and TNF+ T cells. The increase in HCC triggered by anti-PD1 treatment was prevented by depletion of CD8+ T cells or TNF neutralization, suggesting that CD8+ T cells help to induce NASH–HCC, rather than invigorating or executing immune surveillance. We found similar phenotypic and functional profiles in hepatic CD8+PD1+ T cells from humans with NAFLD or NASH. A meta-analysis of three randomized phase III clinical trials that tested inhibitors of PDL1 (programmed death-ligand 1) or PD1 in more than 1,600 patients with advanced HCC revealed that immune therapy did not improve survival in patients with non-viral HCC. In two additional cohorts, patients with NASH-driven HCC who received anti-PD1 or anti-PDL1 treatment showed reduced overall survival compared to patients with other aetiologies. Collectively, these data show that non-viral HCC, and particularly NASH–HCC, might be less responsive to immunotherapy, probably owing to NASH-related aberrant T cell activation causing tissue damage that leads to impaired immune surveillance. Our data provide a rationale for stratification of patients with HCC according to underlying aetiology in studies of immunotherapy as a primary or adjuvant treatment., In hepatocellular carcinoma driven by non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, aberrant T cell activation and impaired immune surveillance seem to make hepatocellular carcinoma less responsive to anti-PD1 or anti-PDL1 immunotherapy.

Background There is strong evidence that portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is associated with poor survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, data regarding the clinical significance of hepatic vein tumor thrombosis (HVTT) is rare, particularly in Western patients. Objective To determine the HVTT prevalence in a Western patient population and its impact on survival. Methods We included 1310 patients with HCC treated in our tertiary referral center between January 2005 and December 2016. HVTT and PVTT were diagnosed with contrast‐enhanced cross‐sectional imaging. Overall survival (OS) was calculated starting from the initial HCC diagnosis, and in a second step, starting from the first appearance of vascular invasion. Results We observed macrovascular invasion (MVI) in 519 patients who suffered from either isolated HVTT (n = 40), isolated PVTT (n = 352), or both combined (HVTT + PVTT) (n = 127). Calculated from the initial HCC diagnosis, the median OS for patients with isolated HVTT was significantly shorter than that of patients without MVI (13.3 vs. 32.5 months, p

Nonbacterial thrombotic endocarditis (NBTE) is a rare condition which most often accompanies a malignant disease and involves a hypercoagulable state. We report the incidental finding of a scarce case of NBTE affecting the tricuspid valve in a patient with metastatic pancreatic carcinoma complicated by severe venous and arterial thromboembolisms.

Immunotherapy with atezolizumab plus bevacizumab represents the new standard of care in systemic front-line treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, biomarkers that predict treatment success and survival remain an unmet need.Patients with HCC put on PD-(L)1-based immunotherapy were included in a training set (n = 190; 6 European centers) and a validation set (n = 102; 8 European centers). We investigated the prognostic value of baseline variables on overall survival using a Cox model in the training set and developed the easily applicable CRAFITY (CRP and AFP in ImmunoTherapY) score. The score was validated in the independent, external cohort, and evaluated in a cohort of patients treated with sorafenib (n = 204).Baseline serum alpha-fetoprotein ≥100 ng/ml (hazard ratio [HR] 1.7; p = 0.007) and C-reactive protein ≥1 mg/dl (HR, 1.7; p = 0.007) were identified as independent prognostic factors in multivariable analysis and were used to develop the CRAFITY score. Patients who fulfilled no criterion (0 points; CRAFITY-low) had the longest median overall survival (27.6 (95% CI 19.5-35.8) months), followed by those fulfilling 1 criterion (1 point; CRAFITY-intermediate; 11.3 (95% CI 8.0-14.6) months), and patients meeting both criteria (2 points; CRAFITY-high; 6.4 (95% CI 4.8-8.1) months; p0.001). Additionally, best radiological response (complete response/partial response/stable disease/progressive disease) was significantly better in patients with lower CRAFITY score (CRAFITY-low: 9%/20%/52%/20% vs. CRAFITY-intermediate: 3%/25%/36%/36% vs. CRAFITY-high: 2%/15%/22%/61%; p = 0.003). These results were confirmed in the independent validation set and in different subgroups, including Child-Pugh A and B, performance status 0 and ≥1, and first-line and later lines. In the sorafenib cohort, CRAFITY was associated with survival, but not radiological response.The CRAFITY score is associated with survival and radiological response in patients receiving PD-(L)1 immunotherapy. The score may help with patient counseling but requires prospective validation.The immunotherapy-based regimen of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab represents the new standard of care in systemic first-line therapy of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Biomarkers to predict treatment outcome are an unmet need in patients undergoing immunotherapy for HCC. We developed and externally validated a score that predicts outcome in patients with HCC undergoing immunotherapy with immune checkpoint blockers.

Background Portal vein tumor thrombosis (PVTT) is a frequent complication of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), which leads to classification as advanced stage disease (regardless of the degree of PVTT) according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Classification. For such patients, systemic therapy is the standard of care. However, in clinical reality, many patients with PVTT undergo different treatments, such as resection, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), selective internal radiation therapy (SIRT), or best supportive care (BSC). Here we examined whether patients benefited from such alternative therapies, according to the extent of PVTT. Methods This analysis included therapy-naïve patients with HCC and PVTT treated between January 2005 and December 2016. PVTT was classified according to the Liver Cancer study group of Japan as follows: Vp1 = segmental PV invasion; Vp2 = right anterior or posterior PV; Vp3 = right or left PV; Vp4 = main trunk. Overall survival (OS) was analyzed for each treatment subgroup considering the extent of PVTT. We performed Cox regression analysis with adjustment for possible confounders. To further attenuate selection bias, we applied propensity score weighting using the inverse probability of treatment weights. Results A total of 278 treatment-naïve patients with HCC and PVTT were included for analysis. The median observed OS in months for each treatment modality (resection, TACE/SIRT, sorafenib, BSC, respectively) was 32.4, 8.1, N/A, and 1.7 for Vp1; 10.7, 6.9, 5.5, and 1.2 for Vp2; 6.6, 7.5, 2.9, and 0.6 for Vp3; and 8.0, 3.6, 5.3, and 0.7 for Vp4. Thus, the median OS in the resection group in case of segmental PVTT (Vp1) was significantly longer compared to any other treatment group (all p values Conclusions Treatment strategy for HCC with PVTT should not be limited to systemic therapy in general. The extent of PVTT should be considered when deciding on treatment alternatives. In patients with segmental PVTT (Vp1), resection should be evaluated.

Background and Aims: Nutritional support (NS) in patients with malignancies and malnutrition improves outcome and treatment tolerance. The underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. We aimed to investigate for the first time the influence of an early individualized NS in newly diagnosed patients with gastrointestinal/hepato-pancreatic malignancies and malnutrition on DNA damage, oxidative stress and subclinical inflammation. Methods: This prospective case-control study included 43 patients with newly diagnosed malignancies and malnutrition. At baseline (F0), we documented patients’ data, oncological diagnosis, comorbidities, alcohol/ nicotine consume. Nutritional parameters, DNA damage [histone-variant H2AX phosphorylated on the 139-serine residue (γ-H2AX) foci/cell], oxidative status, subclinical inflammation were measured. During diagnostic workup, patients received an individualized NS, and got a follow-up before the start of treatment (F1), (n=21). Healthy controls (n=21) were included for comparison of DNA damage at baseline. Results: γ-H2AX-values at baseline were higher than in controls (p

BACKGROUND: Reports of liver injury in patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are emerging from China and the USA. A wide variety of liver function test abnormalities and few cases of severe liver failure have been reported. No data on the hepatic phenotype from Europe are available at current. METHODS: We report a case series of 44 consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in Germany. RESULTS: At the time of admission, aspartate aminotransferase greater than the upper limit of normal was present in 70%, while alanine aminotransferase was elevated in 15.8%. Markers of cholestatic liver injury were altered only in a minority of patients. During hospitalization, 31% and 22% experienced increasing aspartate aminotransferase and alanine aminotransferase, respectively, when transaminases were normal at admission. Severe liver injury defined by 3×> upper limit of normal was observed in 9.1% over a mean time of 10.5 days. Importantly, patients exhibited cytotoxicity including lactate dehydrogenase and creatinine kinase elevations, but no signs of relevant liver function impairment. CONCLUSION: In summary, in a case series of hospitalized patients in Germany, cytotoxicity in the absence of severe liver dysfunction at admission and only few cases suggestive of severe liver injury during hospital were observed.

Background & Aims The prevalence of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing. However, strategies for detection of early-stage HCC in patients with NASH have limitations. We assessed the ability of the GALAD score, which determines risk of HCC based on patient sex; age; and serum levels of α-fetoprotein (AFP), AFP isoform L3 (AFP-L3), and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP), to detect HCC in patients with NASH. Methods We performed a case-control study of 125 patients with HCC (20% within Milan Criteria) and 231 patients without HCC (NASH controls) from 8 centers in Germany. We compared the performance of serum AFP, AFP-L3, or DCP vs GALAD score to identify patients with HCC using receiver operating characteristic curves and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) analyses. We also analyzed data from 389 patients with NASH under surveillance for HCC in Japan, followed for a median of 167 months. During the 5-year screening period, 26 patients developed HCC. To compensate for irregular intervals of data points, we performed locally weighted scatterplot smoothing, linear regression, and a non-linear curve fit to assess development of GALAD before HCC development. Results The GALAD score identified patients with any stage HCC with an AUC of 0.96 — significantly greater than values for serum levels of AFP (AUC, 0.88), AFP-L3 (AUC, 0.86) or DCP (AUC, 0.87). AUC values for the GALAD score were consistent in patients with cirrhosis (AUC, 0.93) and without cirrhosis (AUC, 0.98). For detection of HCC within Milan Criteria, the GALAD score achieved an AUC of 0.91, with a sensitivity of 68% and specificity of 95% at a cutoff of -0.63. In a pilot Japanese cohort study, the mean GALAD score was higher in patients with NASH who developed HCC than in those who did not develop HCC as early as 1.5 years before HCC diagnosis. GALAD scores were above -0.63 approximately 200 days before the diagnosis of HCC. Conclusions In a case–control study performed in Germany and a pilot cohort study in Japan, we found the GALAD score may detect HCC with high levels of accuracy in patients with NASH, with and without cirrhosis. The GALAD score can detect patients with early-stage HCC, and might facilitate surveillance of patients with NASH, who are often obese, which limits the sensitivity of detection of liver cancer by ultrasound.

Background The SLEEP study examines the effect of an exercise therapy against a control group with TAU therapy (Treatment as usual) in SLE to identify the effect of regular physical activity on muscular development. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of physical activity on disease activity and especially on fatigue syndrome. Molecular biological markers such as cfDNA and exosomes also detect the degree of the prostration of the patients. Methods Thirty SLE patients with laboratory as well as clinically stable status were included. The intervention group initially consisted of 24 patients, of which 12 were aerobically and 12 anaerobically active. In contrast, eight patients were included in a control group who did not do any sports. After a sports performance test had been performed, the patients were sent to a weekly training plan for a total of 12 weeks. The training was individually adapted to their performance, via an Internet platform. At the end of the week, the training plan for the following week was developed according to the patient feedback and its evaluation. Results First evaluations show laboratory chemically stable humoral systemic activity (ANA, dsDNA-Ak, C3c, C4). Two-third of the patients reported a reduction in fatigue and a significant improvement in physical fitness. With regard to the sports medical examination before and after the 3-month training program, a significant increase in VO2peak (p Conclusion Due to the initial significantly reduced cardiorespiratory fitness of the patients, but with promising first data showing a benefit of the patients after the training program, a follow-up study with a larger SLE patient collective over a period of 2 years is planned. In addition, a murine comparative study will be initiated in the spontaneous lupus mouse model of the MRL-Fas lpr mice. On the one hand, the influence of physical exercise on disease activity and progression of SLE should be analysed. Furthermore, we want to investigate the effects of physical activity on the musculature (inflammation, necrosis and fibrosis) and cardiovascular damage.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system is commonly used to classify hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, other staging classification schemes have been proposed. We aimed to compare the prognostic accuracy of the Hong Kong Liver Cancer Staging (HKLC), the Model to Estimate Survival for HCC (MESH), and the BCLC staging systems using a Western cohort of HCC patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 918 patients diagnosed with HCC treated at the University Medical Center of Mainz between 2005 and 2014. We compared the predictive power of survival time of the BCLC, HKLC, and MESH. Predictive ability was tested using the integrated Brier score (IBS) and Harrell’s C index. RESULTS: Kaplan–Meier analyses showed significant differences in survival between stages defined by the BCLC, HKLC, and MESH. The HKLC classification demonstrated a more robust classification concordance and lower prediction error compared to the BCLC and MESH. In addition, we found that the BCLC offers superior predictive ability to the MESH in the first four years, whereas the MESH is superior for long-term predictions. CONCLUSION: Our analyses confirm the prognostic value of three different HCC scoring systems. When compared, the HKLC provides superior prognostication ability.

Background. Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is an aggressive tumor entity, and distant metastases are common. However, studies investigating patterns and clinical relevance of distant metastases are rare. Therefore, we aimed to analyze occurrence, location, and prognostic impact of distant metastases on overall survival (OS). Methods. Between 1997 and 2018, 417 patients with ICC were treated at our tertiary care center. Distant metastases and intrahepatic tumor burden were retrospectively evaluated in a longitudinal approach using volumetric assessment of cross-sectional imaging studies and all available medical/histopathological reports. Results. Finally, 370 patients with histopathologically confirmed ICC were included. Of these, 186 showed distant metastases, either initially (n = 59) or during follow-up (n = 127). The most common metastatic sites were the lung (n = 105), peritoneum (n = 81), and bone (n = 50). After detection of lung metastases, the residual median OS was 5.3 months; followed by peritoneal metastases, 4.5 months, and bone metastases, 4.4 months (P=0.17). At the time of first metastatic occurrence, residual OS according to intrahepatic tumor burden of 50% was 6.5 months, 4.9 months, and 1.2 months, respectively (P<0.001). In multivariate hazard regression, hepatic tumor burden, liver function, and subsequent treatment were significant predictors of survival. Conclusions. During the disease course, every second patient developed extrahepatic metastases. While the presence of distant metastases was associated with poor patient outcomes, there was no significant difference between metastatic sites. However, hepatic tumor burden was the life-limiting risk factor in a majority of patients at the time of distant metastatic disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Portal vein tumour thrombosis (PVTT) has a significant impact on the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The degree of PVTT varies from sub-/segmental invasion to complete occlusion of the main trunk. Aim of this study was to evaluate whether the degree of PVTT correlates with prognosis. METHODS A total of 1317 patients with HCC treated at our tertiary referral centre between January 2005 and December 2016 were included. PVTT was diagnosed by contrast-enhanced computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The extent of PVTT was documented according to the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan classification: Vp0 = no PVTT, Vp1 = segmental portal vein invasion, Vp2 = right anterior/posterior portal vein, Vp3 = right/left portal vein and Vp4 = main trunk. Median overall survival (OS) was calculated for each group. RESULTS Portal vein tumour thrombosis was present in 484 (36.8%) patients. Median OS without PVTT was 35.7 months, significantly longer than in patients with PVTT (7.2 months, P

Nivolumab is the first checkpoint-inhibitor approved for the treatment of advanced HCC patients. Real-life experience data of nivolumab treatment in HCC patients, especially those with advanced liver disease, is scarce. All patients with confirmed advanced HCC and nivolumab treatment from three large German centers were retrospectively analyzed. Clinical parameters and outcome were assessed. A total of 34 patients were included. At the time of treatment initiation 5 patients (14.7%) were classified as stage BCLC B and 29 (85.3%) BCLC C, respectively. 25 (73.5) patients had received prior sorafenib treatment. All patients presented with cirrhosis, namely Child–Pugh stages A (56%) or B (41%), respectively. At time of patient’s assessment, 20 out of 34 (58.8%) patients had died. Grade 3 toxicities occurred in two patients (5.9%). Best overall responses were partial response in four patients (11.8%) and stable disease in eight patients (23.5%). The median overall survival of the whole cohort was 7.5 weeks (range 0–46). Child–Pugh B stage disease at treatment start was significantly associated with poor outcome. Nivolumab treatment seems safe and clinical efficacious. Patients with advanced liver disease require further prospective evaluation due to probable limited efficacy of nivolumab.

BackgroundSorafenib is the recommended treatment for advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is performed in individual cases with limited extrahepatic spread. The aim of this study was to compare the outcome of patients with HCC and extrahepatic disease (EHD) treated with sorafenib and TACE.MethodsA total of 172 patients with HCC and EHD treated with sorafenib (n = 98) or TACE (n = 74) at three German referral centers (Hannover, Mainz and Hamburg) were included in this study. In order to reduce selection bias, patients were matched for significant demographic differences using a propensity score analysis.ResultsPatients with liver cirrhosis, higher extrahepatic tumor burden and/or infiltration of adjacent organs/structures were significantly more often treated with sorafenib. Median overall survival (OS) was similar for sorafenib- and TACE-treated patients (7 versus 8 months, p = 0.312). In a propensity score analysis matched for demographic differences, median...

Purpose Gemcitabine is standard of care in the adjuvant treatment of resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor erlotinib in combination with gemcitabine has shown efficacy in the treatment of advanced PDAC and was considered to improve survival in patients with primarily resectable PDAC after R0 resection. Patients and Methods In an open-label, multicenter trial, patients were randomly assigned to one of two study arms: gemcitabine 1,000 mg/m2 days 1, 8, 15, every 4 weeks plus erlotinib 100 mg once per day (GemErlo) or gemcitabine (Gem) alone for six cycles. The primary end point of the study was to improve disease-free survival (DFS) from 14 to 18 months by adding erlotinib to gemcitabine. Results In all, 436 patients were randomly assigned at 57 study centers between April 2008 and July 2013. A total of 361 instances (83%) of disease recurrence were observed after a median follow-up of 54 months. Median treatment duration was 22 weeks in both arms. There was no difference in median DFS (GemErlo 11.4 months; Gem 11.4 months) or median overall survival (GemErlo 24.5 months; Gem 26.5 months). There was a trend toward long-term survival in favor of GemErlo (estimated survival after 1, 2, and 5 years for GemErlo was 77%, 53%, and 25% v 79%, 54%, and 20% for Gem, respectively). The occurrence or the grade of rash was not associated with a better survival in the GemErlo arm. Conclusion To the best of our knowledge, CONKO-005 is the first study to investigate the combination of chemotherapy and a targeted therapy in the adjuvant treatment of PDAC. GemErlo for 24 weeks did not improve DFS or overall survival over Gem.

Background/Aim: Individual components of the metabolic syndrome (MS) such as obesity or diabetes mellitus impair the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following curative treatment approaches or transarterial therapies. The aim of this retrospective study was to assess the impact of these factors on the overall survival (OS) of patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib. Methods: Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to assess the impact of individual components of the MS on the OS of 152 consecutive patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib. Results: The presence of overweight/obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and of the MS itself did not impair the median OS. Multivariate analysis showed that Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status ≥1 (hazards ratio [HR] 2.03), presence of macrovascular invasion (HR 1.71), Child-Pugh score B/C (HR 2.19), tumor grading G3 (HR 2.17), no prior HCC treatment (HR 2.34), and the presence of 2 or more out of 5 individual components of the MS (HR 0.65) were independent prognostic factors regarding the median OS. Conclusions: Our investigations do not confirm a negative prognostic role of individual components of the MS or the MS itself for patients with advanced HCC treated with sorafenib.

BackgroundInhibition of the renin–angiotensin system (RAS) was associated with longer survival in patients with different solid malignancies.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to investigate ...

BACKGROUND AND AIMS Deciding when to repeat and when to stop transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can be difficult even for experienced investigators. Our aim was to develop a survival prediction model for such patients undergoing TACE using novel machine learning algorithms and to compare it to conventional prediction scores, ART, ABCR and SNACOR. METHODS For this retrospective analysis, 282 patients who underwent TACE for HCC at our tertiary referral centre between January 2005 and December 2017 were included in the final analysis. We built an artificial neural network (ANN) including all parameters used by the aforementioned risk scores and other clinically meaningful parameters. Following an 80:20 split, the first 225 patients were used for training; the more recently treated 20% were used for validation. RESULTS The ANN had a promising performance at predicting 1-year survival, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.77 ± 0.13. Internal validation yielded an AUC of 0.83 ± 0.06, a positive predictive value of 87.5% and a negative predictive value of 68.0%. The sensitivity was 77.8% and specificity 81.0%. In a head-to-head comparison, the ANN outperformed the aforementioned scoring systems, which yielded lower AUCs (SNACOR 0.73 ± 0.07, ABCR 0.70 ± 0.07 and ART 0.54 ± 0.08). This difference reached significance for ART (P