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Introduction The externally validated Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) for predicting risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been developed, but its potential impact in a population on referrals for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) from primary to specialty nephrology care is not known. Methods A cross-sectional population-based study of individuals in United Kingdom primary care registered in The Health Improvement Network database was conducted. National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2014 CKD guidelines versus the 4-variable KFRE set at a >3% risk of ESRD at 5 years were applied to patients identified with CKD stage 3-5 between January 1, 2016, and March 31, 2017. Results In all, 39,476 (36.6%) of 107,962 adults with CKD stage 3-5 had a urine albumin:creatinine ratio (ACR) available and entered into the primary analysis. Of that, 7566 (19.2%) patients fulfilled NICE criteria for referral, 2386 (31.5%) of whom had a ≤3% 5-year risk of ESRD. Also 8663 (21.9%) patients had a >3% 5-year risk of ESRD, 3483 (40.2%) of whom did not fulfill NICE criteria; this represents 8.8% of the primary population. By using the KFRE threshold rather than NICE criteria for referral, 5869 patients (14.9% of the primary analysis population) would have been reallocated between primary and specialist care. Imputational analysis was used for missing ACR measurements and showed similar results. Conclusions A risk-based referral approach would lead to a substantial reallocation of patients between primary care and specialist nephrology care with only a small increase in numbers eligible, ensuring those at higher risk of progression are identified., Graphical abstract

Aims Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are also susceptible to periodontitis. The causal link between periodontitis and CKD may be mediated via systemic inflammation/oxidative stress. Using structural equation modelling (SEM), this cross‐sectional study aimed to explore the causal relationship between periodontal inflammation (PI) and renal function. Materials and methods Baseline data on 770 patients with stage 3–5 (pre‐dialysis) CKD from an ongoing cohort study were used. Detailed, bioclinical data on PI and renal function, as well as potential confounders and mediators of the relationship between the two, were collected. SEMs of increasing complexity were created to test the causal assumption that PI affects renal function and vice versa. Results Structural equation modelling confirmed the assumption that PI and renal function are causally linked, mediated by systemic oxidative stress. The magnitude of this effect was such that a 10% increase in PI resulted in a 3.0% decrease in renal function and a 10% decrease in renal function resulted in a 25% increase in PI. Conclusions Periodontal inflammation represents an occult source of oxidative stress in patients with CKD. Further clinical studies are needed to confirm whether periodontal therapy, as a non‐pharmacological approach to reducing systemic inflammatory/oxidative stress burden, can improve outcomes in CKD.

BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of early death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Previous work has described an association between Cytomegalovirus (CMV) seropositivity and CVD amongst patients with dialysis dependent end stage renal disease. Whether CMV seropositivity is associated with CVD in non-dialysis dependent CKD has not been established. AIM Investigate whether past CMV infection is associated with prevalent CVD in patients with non-dialysis dependent CKD. DESIGN A retrospective observational study using the Renal Impairment in Secondary Care cohort, a study evaluating bio-clinical determinants of outcomes in patients with progressive CKD. METHODS We assayed cryopreserved serum samples collected at inception for anti-CMV IgG antibodies from 764 patients with stages 2 to 5 CKD (pre-dialysis) and investigated its relationship with prevalent CVD. RESULTS Median estimated glomerular filtration was 24 ml/min/1.73 m2 (IQR 19-32). Sixty-eight percent of patients were CMV seropositive. CMV seropositivity was associated with older age, non-Caucasian ethnicity, diabetes and higher social deprivation index score. On univariable analysis, CMV seropositivity correlated with higher systolic blood pressure (P = 0.044), prevalent CVD (P

Background In studies including the general population, the presence of non-malignant monoclonal gammopathy (MG) can be causally associated with kidney damage and shorter survival. We assessed whether the presence of an MG is associated with a higher risk of kidney failure or death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Methods and findings Data were used from 3 prospective cohorts of individuals with CKD (not on dialysis or with a kidney transplant): (1) Renal Impairment in Secondary Care (RIISC, Queen Elizabeth Hospital and Heartlands Hospital, Birmingham, UK, N = 878), (2) Salford Kidney Study (SKS, Salford Royal Hospital, Salford, UK, N = 861), and (3) Renal Risk in Derby (RRID, Derby, UK, N = 1,739). Participants were excluded if they had multiple myeloma or any other B cell lymphoproliferative disorder with end-organ damage. Median age was 71.0 years, 50.6% were male, median estimated glomerular filtration rate was 42.3 ml/min/1.73 m2, and median urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio was 3.4 mg/mmol. All non-malignant MG was identified in the baseline serum of participants of RIISC. Further, light chain MG (LC-MG) was identified and studied in participants of RIISC, SKS, and RRID. Participants were followed up for kidney failure (defined as the initiation of dialysis or kidney transplantation) and death. Associations with the risk of kidney failure were estimated by competing-risks regression (handling death as a competing risk), and associations with death were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression. In total, 102 (11.6%) of the 878 RIISC participants had an MG. During a median follow-up time of 74.0 months, there were 327 kidney failure events and 202 deaths. The presence of MG was not associated with risk of kidney failure (univariable subhazard ratio [SHR] 0.97 [95% CI 0.68 to 1.38], P = 0.85; multivariable SHR 1.16 [95% CI 0.80 to 1.69], P = 0.43), and although there was a higher risk of death in univariable analysis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.13 [95% CI 1.49 to 3.02], P < 0.001), this was not significant in multivariable analysis (HR 1.37 [95% CI 0.93 to 2.00], P = 0.11). Fifty-five (1.6%) of the 3,478 participants from all 3 studies had LC-MG. During a median follow-up time of 62.5 months, 564 of the 3,478 participants progressed to kidney failure, and 803 died. LC-MG was not associated with risk of kidney failure (univariable SHR 1.07 [95% CI 0.58 to 1.96], P = 0.82; multivariable SHR 1.42 [95% CI 0.78 to 2.57], P = 0.26). There was a higher risk of death in those with LC-MG in the univariable model (HR 2.51 [95% CI 1.59 to 3.96], P < 0.001), but not in the multivariable model (HR 1.49 [95% CI 0.93 to 2.39], P = 0.10). An important limitation of this work was that only LC-MG, rather than any MG, could be identified in participants from SKS and RRID. Conclusions The prevalence of MG was higher in this CKD cohort than that reported in the general population. However, the presence of an MG was not independently associated with a significantly higher risk of kidney failure or, unlike in the general population, risk of death., Anthony Fenton et al describe the association of monoclonal gammopathy with kidney failure and mortality in patients with Chronic Kidney Disease., Author summary Why was this study done? Non-malignant monoclonal gammopathy (MG) is a common pre-malignant condition that can be associated with kidney damage and a higher risk of death. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is also common, affecting approximately 10% of adults, and people with CKD may be more likely to have an MG. It is unknown whether having an MG is associated with higher risk of kidney failure or death in people with CKD. What did the researchers do and find? We examined how common an MG is in patients with CKD, and also examined the associations between MG and kidney failure and death using data from 3 cohort studies of patients with CKD in the UK. An MG was present in 11.6% of patients with CKD. Patients with an MG did not have a higher risk of kidney failure or death. What do these findings mean? Our results are consistent with a previous study that suggested that MG is more common in patients with CKD. However, the presence of an MG was not associated with a higher risk of kidney failure or death. Although this is reassuring for patients with CKD and their healthcare providers, we did not examine whether having an MG is associated with the risk of other adverse outcomes.

Background Minimal change disease (MCD) is a common cause of the nephrotic syndrome in adults with limited evidence on its treatment and prognosis. We examined the presenting characteristics, treatments, and outcomes of adult patients with MCD in our centre. Methods This was an observational cohort study using retrospectively-collected data. All patients who had a renal biopsy reported as MCD between 1996 and 2012 were included, and data were collected at baseline and during follow-up. Statistical analysis included Cox-regression analysis to examine which factors were associated with risk of relapse. Results Seventy-eight patients were included, and had a median age of 36 years, and were 60% male and 73% white. Median follow-up time was 72 months. 37% were in AKI at presentation, which was significantly associated with a lower serum albumin and older age. Although 10% were steroid-resistant, 98% achieved remission at a median time of 5 weeks. 61% relapsed, at a median time of 11 months, and patients had a median number of 2 relapses during follow-up. A higher eGFR was associated with an increased risk of relapse (hazard ratio 1.18 [1.03–1.36] per 10 mL/min increase in eGFR), and females were significantly more likely than males to have an early relapse. Nearly half of the cohort required an additional immunosuppressive agent on top of glucocorticoids, the most commonly used being calcineurin inhibitors. Five patients subsequently developed FSGS: these patients had a lower baseline creatinine, a higher serum albumin, a longer time to remission, and were more likely to be steroid-resistant. Follow-up renal function was generally preserved, but follow-up creatinine was higher in those who had presented with AKI, and in those who had been commenced on a RAS inhibitor after biopsy. Infection requiring admission, diabetes mellitus and venous thromboembolism developed in 14%, 12%, and 12% of patients respectively. Conclusions Nearly all adults with MCD achieve remission, but relapses and disease- and therapy-related complications are common. In our cohort, eGFR and gender were associated with risk of relapse, and these previously undescribed associations could be explored further in future work.

Background Tubulointerstitial fibrosis is a major pathological feature in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and collagen type III (COL3) is a major component of the renal fibrotic scar. We hypothesized that a dysregulated turnover of COL3 is an important determinant of CKD progression. We assessed the relationship between fragments reflecting active formation (PRO-C3) and degradation (C3M) of COL3 and CKD disease progression and mortality in a prospective cohort of CKD patients. Methods We measured PRO-C3 and C3M in urine (uPRO-C3 and uC3M) and serum (sPRO-C3 and sC3M) of 500 patients from the Renal Impairment in Secondary Care study. Disease progression was defined as a decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate >30% or the start of renal replacement therapy within 12 and 30 months. Results Levels of uC3M/creatinine decreased, whereas levels of uPRO-C3/creatinine and sPRO-C3 increased with increasing CKD stage. uC3M/creatinine was inversely and independently associated with disease progression by 12 months {odds ratio [OR] 0.39 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.18–0.83]; P = 0.01 per doubling of uC3M/creatinine} with development of end-stage renal disease [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70 (95% CI 0.50–0.97); P = 0.03 per doubling of uC3M/creatinine]. sPRO-C3 at baseline was independently associated with increased mortality [HR 1.93 (95% CI 1.21–3.1); P = 0.006 per doubling of sPRO-C3] and disease progression by 30 months [OR 2.16 (95% CI 1.21–3.84); P = 0.009 per doubling of sPRO-C3]. Conclusions Dynamic products of COL3 formation and degradation were independently associated with CKD progression and mortality and may represent an opportunity to link pathological processes with targeted treatments against fibrosis.

Rates of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, end stage kidney disease (ESKD), all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular (CVD) events among individuals with CKD vary widely across countries. Well-characterized demographic, comorbidity, and laboratory markers captured for prospective cohorts may explain, in part, such differences. To investigate whether core characteristics of individuals with CKD explain differences in rates of outcomes, we conducted an individual-level analysis of eight studies that are part of iNET-CKD, an international network of CKD cohort studies. Overall, the rate of CKD progression was 40 events/1000 person-year (95% confidence interval 39 - 41), 28 (27 - 29) for ESKD, 41 (40 - 42) for death, and 29 (28 - 30) for CVD events. However, standardized rates were highly heterogeneous across studies (over 92.5%). Interactions by study group on the association between baseline characteristics and outcomes were then identified. For example, the adjusted hazard ratio for CKD progression was 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.35 - 0.56) for women vs. men among the Japanese (CKD-JAC), while it was 0.66 (0.59 - 0.75) among the Uruguayan (NRHP). The adjusted hazard ratio for ESKD was 2.02 (95% CI 1.88 - 2.17) per 10 units lower baseline eGFR among Americans (CRIC), while it was 3.01 (2.57 - 3.53) among Canadians (CanPREDDICT) (significant interaction for comparisons across all studies). The risks of CKD progression, ESKD, death, and CVD vary across countries even after accounting for the distributions of age, sex, comorbidities, and laboratory markers. Thus, our findings support the need for a better understanding of specific factors in different populations that explain this variation.

BACKGROUND Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at an increased risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We assessed for the first time whether urinary free light chains (FLC) are independently associated with risk of ESRD in patients with CKD, and whether they offer incremental value in risk stratification. MATERIALS AND METHODS We measured urinary FLCs in 556 patients with CKD from a prospective cohort study. The association between urinary kappa/creatinine (KCR) and lambda/creatinine (LCR) ratios and development of ESRD was assessed by competing-risks regression (to account for the competing risk of death). The change in C-statistic and integrated discrimination improvement were used to assess the incremental value of adding KCR or LCR to the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). RESULTS 136 participants developed ESRD during a median follow-up time of 51 months. Significant associations between KCR and LCR and risk of ESRD became non-significant after adjustment for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), although having a KCR or LCR >75th centile remained independently associated with risk of ESRD. Neither KCR nor LCR as continuous or categorical variables provided incremental value when added to the KFRE for estimating risk of ESRD at two years. CONCLUSIONS Urinary FLCs have an association with progression to ESRD in patients with CKD which appears to be explained to a degree by their correlation with eGFR and ACR. Levels above the 75th centile do have an independent association with ESRD, but do not improve upon a current model for risk stratification.

Background There is a need for a large, contemporary, multi-centre series of measured glomerular filtration rates (mGFR) from healthy individuals to determine age- and gender-specific reference ranges for GFR. We aimed to address this and to use the ranges to provide age- and gender-specific advisory GFR thresholds considered acceptable for living kidney donation. Methods Individual-level data including pre-donation mGFR from 2974 prospective living kidney donors from 18 UK renal centres performed between 2003 and 2015 were amalgamated. Age- and gender-specific GFR reference ranges were determined by segmented multiple linear regression and presented as means ± two standard deviations. Results Males had a higher GFR than females (92.0 vs 88.1 mL/min/1.73m2, P 60 years had a GFR

ObjectiveTo clarify the associations between polyclonal serum free light chain (sFLC) levels and adverse outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) by conducting a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analyses.Patients and MethodsOn December 28, 2016, we searched 4 databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and PubMed) and conference proceedings for studies presenting independent analyses of associations between sFLC levels and mortality or progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with CKD. Study quality was assessed in 5 domains: sample selection, measurement, attrition, reporting, and funding.ResultsFive prospective cohort studies were included, judged moderate to good quality, involving 3912 participants in total. In multivariable meta-analyses, sFLC (kappa+lambda) levels were independently associated with mortality (5 studies, 3680 participants; hazard ratio [HR], 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.06] per 10 mg/L increase in sFLC levels) and progression to ESRD (3 studies, 1848 participants; HR, 1.01 [95% CI, 1.00-1.03] per 10 mg/L increase in sFLC levels). The sFLC values above the upper limit of normal (43.3 mg/L) were independently associated with mortality (HR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.14-1.85]) and ESRD (HR, 3.25 [95% CI, 1.32-7.99]).ConclusionHigher levels of sFLCs are independently associated with higher risk of mortality and ESRD in patients with CKD. Future work is needed to explore the biological role of sFLCs in adverse outcomes in CKD, and their use in risk stratification.

Scientific reports 7(1), 17328 (2017). doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17470-3, Published by Nature Publishing Group, London

Background: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have increased risk of development of endstage renal disease (ESRD) and early mortality. Fibrosis is the central pathogenic process in CKD and is caused by dysregulated extracellular matrix (ECM) remodeling. The laminin γ1 chain (LAMC1) is a core structural protein present in the basement membrane of several organs, including the kidneys. We hypothesized that dysregulation of LAMC1 remodeling could be associated with a higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes in patients with CKD. 'Methods: A novel immunoassay targeting LG1M, a specific MMP-9-generated neo-epitope fragment of LAMC1, was developed and used to measure the levels of the fragment in urine and serum from 492 patients from the Renal Impairment in Secondary Care (RIISC) study, a prospective cohort of patients with high-risk CKD. Patients were monitored for a median followup time of 3.5 years. Associations between serum and urine LG1M levels and progression of CKD at 12 months were assessed by a multivariable logistic regression model. The association with ESRD or mortality was assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results: Forty-six (11%) of the 416 patients who reached 12-month follow-up had progression of CKD; during the study follow-up, 125 patients (25.4%) developed ESRD and 71 patients (14.4%) died. Serum and urine levels of LG1M correlated with baseline eGFR (r = -0.43, pConclusions: LG1M, a marker of basement membrane remodeling, is increased in serum and urine of patients with CKD and levels are associated with one-year disease progression, development of ESRD, and mortality.

BACKGROUND Mast cell activation can lead to nonclassical activation of the Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System. However, the relevance of this to human chronic kidney disease is unknown. We assessed the association between serum tryptase, a product of mast cell activation, and progression to end-stage renal disease or mortality in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. We stratified patients by use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor II blockers (ACEi/ARB). MATERIALS AND METHODS This was a prospective cohort study of 446 participants recruited into the Renal Impairment in Secondary Care study. Serum tryptase was measured at recruitment by sandwich immunoassay. Cox regression analysis was undertaken to determine variables associated with progression to end-stage renal disease or death. RESULTS Serum tryptase concentration was independently associated with progression to end-stage renal disease but not with death. In patients treated with ACEi or ARB, there was a strong independent association between higher tryptase concentrations and progression to end-stage renal disease; when compared to the lowest tertile, tryptase concentrations in the middle and highest tertiles had hazard ratios [HR] of 5·78 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1·19-28·03, P = 0·029) and 6·19 (95% CI 1·49-25·69, P = 0·012), respectively. The other independent risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease were lower age, male gender, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher urinary albumin creatinine ratio. CONCLUSION Elevated serum tryptase concentration is an independent prognostic factor for progression to end-stage renal disease in patients with chronic kidney disease who are receiving treatment with an ACEi or ARB.

Background Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at increased risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and early mortality. The underlying pathophysiological processes are not entirely understood but may include dysregulation of extracellular matrix formation with accelerated systemic and renal fibrosis. We assessed the relationship between endotrophin (ETP), a marker of collagen type VI formation, and adverse outcomes in a cohort of patients with CKD. Methods We measured serum ETP levels in 500 patients from the Renal Impairment in Secondary Care (RIISC) study, a prospective observational study of patients with high-risk CKD. Patients were followed up until death or progression to ESRD. Cox regression analysis was used to assess the relationship between ETP and risk of adverse outcomes. Results During a median follow-up time of 37 months, 104 participants progressed to ESRD and 66 died. ETP level was significantly associated with progression to ESRD (HR 1.79 [95% CI 1.59–2.02] per 10 ng/mL increase; HR 11.05 [4.98–24.52] for highest vs lowest quartile; both P

Background and Objectives: Multidisciplinary care (MDC) is known to improve the management of chronic diseases. In this study, we investigated whether MDC improves outcomes in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements: In this retrospective case-control study we have compared the outcomes at the point of starting dialysis and beyond between a cohort of MDC patients (n = 171) and a cohort of nephrology patients (n = 194). The groups were well-matched demographically and were seen in the clinic for at least 3 months before starting dialysis. Dialysis access, blood pressure, haemoglobin, various biochemical parameters, hospital admissions, and survival were compared between the 2 groups. Results: In the MDC group, 68.4% started dialysis with permanent access compared with 58.8% in the nephrologist group (p = 0.04). The mean haemoglobin in the MDC group was 10.28 ± 1.86 versus 9.81 ± 1.76 g/dl in the nephrology group (p = 0.02). There was no difference between the groups in terms of blood pressure control or serum calcium, phosphate, or albumin levels. There were fewer hospital admissions in the MDC cohort (1.42 vs. 2.52 admissions per patient per year, p = 0.005). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that patient survival was significantly better in the MDC group (p = 0.033). Conclusions: This study demonstrates that patients attending a multidisciplinary clinic are better prepared for dialysis treatment, have fewer hospital admissions after start of dialysis, and have a higher patient survival compared to those attending a traditional nephrology clinic.