1. Warranty Period of a Calcium Score of Zero
- Author
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Omar Dzaye, Michael J. Blaha, Moyses Szklo, Matthias Duebgen, Ron Blankstein, Joao A.C. Lima, Zeina Dardari, Khurram Nasir, Miguel Cainzos-Achirica, Joseph Yeboah, Matthew J. Budoff, Arthur S. Agatston, and Roger S. Blumenthal
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,endocrine system diseases ,030204 cardiovascular system & hematology ,Mesa ,030218 nuclear medicine & medical imaging ,Coronary artery disease ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Internal medicine ,Diabetes mellitus ,medicine ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,cardiovascular diseases ,Family history ,Survival analysis ,computer.programming_language ,business.industry ,Warranty ,nutritional and metabolic diseases ,medicine.disease ,Coronary artery calcium ,cardiovascular system ,Cardiology ,population characteristics ,Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine ,business ,Risk assessment ,computer - Abstract
Objectives This study sought to quantify and model conversion of a normal coronary artery calcium (CAC) scan to an abnormal CAC scan. Background Although the absence of CAC is associated with excellent prognosis, progression to CAC >0 confers increased risk. The time interval for repeated scanning remains poorly defined. Methods This study included 3,116 participants from the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) with baseline CAC = 0 and follow-up scans over 10 years after baseline. Prevalence of incident CAC, defined by thresholds of CAC >0, CAC >10, or CAC >100, was calculated and time to progression was derived from a Weibull parametric survival model. Warranty periods were modeled as a function of sex, race/ethnicity, cardiovascular risk, and desired yield of repeated CAC testing. Further analysis was performed of the proportion of coronary events occurring in participants with baseline CAC = 0 that preceded and followed repeated CAC testing at different time intervals. Results Mean participants’ age was 58 ± 9 years, with 63% women, and mean 10-year cardiovascular risk of 14%. Prevalence of CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 was 53%, 36%, and 8%, respectively, at 10 years. Using a 25% testing yield (number needed to scan [NNS] = 4), the estimated warranty period of CAC >0 varied from 3 to 7 years depending on sex and race/ethnicity. Approximately 15% of participants progressed to CAC >10 in 5 to 8 years, whereas 10-year progression to CAC >100 was rare. Presence of diabetes was associated with significantly shorter warranty period, whereas family history and smoking had small effects. A total of 19% of all 10-year coronary events occurred in CAC = 0 prior to performance of a subsequent scan at 3 to 5 years, whereas detection of new CAC >0 preceded 55% of future events and identified individuals at 3-fold higher risk of coronary events. Conclusions In a large population of individuals with baseline CAC = 0, study data provide a robust estimation of the CAC = 0 warranty period, considering progression to CAC >0, CAC >10, and CAC >100 and its impact on missed versus detectable 10-year coronary heart disease events. Beyond age, sex, race/ethnicity, diabetes also has a significant impact on the warranty period. The study suggests that evidence-based guidance would be to consider rescanning in 3 to 7 years depending on individual demographics and risk profile.
- Published
- 2021
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