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Conditional cash transfer programs (CCTs) are increasingly common in Latin American countries and have become the main strategy for combating poverty and social inequality. Among many, noteworthy programs include Progresa-Oportunidades, later renamed Prospera, in Mexico in 1997; Programa Familias en Accion in Colombia; Chile Solidario in Chile in 2002; and Bolsa Familia Program in Brazil in 2003. The central feature of the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP) was that the receipt of monetary benefits by families was tied to the fulfillment of certain conditions, or conditionalities, involving healthcare and education for children and adolescents. The purpose of this design was, in the short term, to combat the negative effects of poverty on family well-being through the transfer of monetary resources, and in the long term, through the requirement of conditionalities, to break the poverty trap caused, in large part, by intergenerational transmission of income and education. The literature on conditional cash transfers has largely focused on entry conditions, paying less attention to exit conditions. This study aims to explore the trajectory of participant families in the Bolsa Familia Program, using information obtained from the cohort of individuals born in the city of Pelotas in 2004. The research focuses on the socioeconomic characteristics of families at the time of their child's birth in 2004 and the follow-up conducted in 2015. Survival analysis models are used to analyze the probability of exiting the program. The results reported by the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier method, indicate that a BRL 1.00 (US$ 0.30) increase in income reduces, on average, the likelihood of successful departure from the BFP beneficiary family by 1%. Conversely, exercises conducted by family groups indicate that for families receiving benefits above the average, BRL 141.00 (US$ 42.32), the mother's age and her employment status positively influence the chances of leaving the program. Overall, the results demonstrate that the values of the benefits received are subject to decreasing returns. For families receiving benefits below the average, a one-unit increase in the amount received reduces the probability of exiting the program by an average of 1%. Regarding successful exits, it was observed that having a white father increases the chances by 40%, and if the father is employed, it increases the likelihood of successfully exiting the program by 48%. These results indicate that the successful exit of families from the program is primarily associated with parental characteristics. JEL Classifications: H75, I32, I38, P46 Keywords: Exit Strategies, Bolsa Familia Program, Conditionalities, Cash Transfer Program., INTRODUCTION Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are increasingly prevalent in Latin American countries and have become the primary strategy for addressing poverty and social inequality. Notable programs include Progresa-Oportunidades, later [...]

The Caribbean region faces a daunting challenge as it confronts the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to shed light on the intricate relationship between governance quality and the economic performance of Caribbean nations, especially in the context of a global health crisis. Our research method involves a panel-random effects model, which captures the effects of governance quality and the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth. We utilize data from various Caribbean countries, considering six dimensions of governance quality, trade openness, inflation, investment, and human capital. This comprehensive approach ensures a nuanced understanding of the region's economic landscape during these turbulent times. Our findings expose a significant negative association between the various dimensions of governance and the ongoing pandemic crisis. Specifically, governance indicators such as voice and accountability, rule of law, political stability, and absence of violence, along with government effectiveness, emerge as positive catalysts for economic growth. On the contrary, the control of corruption and regulatory quality demonstrate a notable negative impact on growth. Furthermore, our research unveils that investment and human capital significantly contribute to boosting output growth in the Caribbean. Conversely, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and trade openness is observed to be detrimental to economic growth. These findings corroborate existing empirical evidence on the governance-growth nexus, underscoring the complex interplay between governance and economic development. These results emphasize the urgency of long-term strategies to enhance governance quality in Caribbean countries. It is imperative to bolster the capacity of governments to address future epidemic episodes, recognizing the persistent threat of pandemics. Policymakers should prioritize measures that promote voice and accountability, rule of law, political stability, and government effectiveness while addressing corruption and regulatory quality issues. This research holds profound significance for both academics and policymakers, offering a pathway to stable and sustainable long-term economic growth and calling for proactive preparedness in the face of future global health challenges. It also invites further research in this critical area. JEL Classifications: F63, O10, C33, C01 Keywords: COVID-19, virus, governance quality, economic growth, Caribbean, panel-random effects model, INTRODUCTION The novel COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has had a major impact on the economies in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This is reflected in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths, [...]

The strive for economic sustainability in world economies, most especially Less-Developed Countries (LDCs) in recent time notably see also an unwelcome comeback of the Import-Substitution (IS) trade strategy whose efficacy established overtime has been mixed. Thus, a systematic/meta-narrative review of literature on the appropriateness of the IS trade strategy in absolute terms to world economies, more particularly LDCs in contemporary time and among policy-alternatives, bearing in mind its tenets as well as its implications was carried out. The PRISMA methodology adapted here alongside an exploration of over 100 relevant literature through salient themes aid to present a synopsis of lessons from emerging market economies, and clear-cut submissions in a bid to inform policy directions. Amidst others, this review findings identify resource deficiencies, some time-lag considerations as such that attest the limited applicability of the IS trade strategy in absolute terms, and also emphasize the notion that Developing Economies or LDCs still need give allowance for certain imports, such as capital-goods imports, into their domestic economy for industrial productivity growth. Consequently from the review presented, efforts by LDCs to accommodate Multinational enterprises (MNEs) and or attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to achieve technology transfer must be continually implemented. JEL Classifications: F00, F01 and F10 Keywords: Import-Substitution, Trade, Strategy, Imports, Industrialization, Less-Developed Countries (LDCs), Economic sustainability, INTRODUCTION The strive for economic sustainability in world economies, most especially Less-Developed Countries (LDCs) in these times, even so as such efforts relate to in part the realization of the [...]

This paper discusses the concepts of reshoring and nearshoring, which are gaining increasing popularity. We contribute to the literature in three main ways. First, building on previous theories we define a conceptual framework and consider how recent developments--the COVID-19 pandemic and Industry 4.0 technologies may affect these patterns. Second, we process some preliminary evidence to test whether Latin American and Caribbean economies are indeed participating in this reshoring trend. Third, we propose a measure of 'reshoring readiness', to assess whether these countries appear to be ready to host relocations and benefit from them. Overall, we find limited evidence of nearshoring to the region so far, except in Mexico, and we highlight strengths and weaknesses of the region for attracting and benefitting from future relocations. Keywords: FDI, global value chains, Industry 4.0, Latin America, nearshoring, reshoring, JEL classification codes: F14, F21, F23, F63, L24 1. Introduction The last decades of the twentieth century were characterized by a fast globalization process. Trade and industrial production were drastically [...]

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990's one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico's economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national self-sufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth. JEL classifications: O11, O14, O16, O17, J48, J71 Keywords: economic growth, productivity, gender, youth unemployment Contact author's email address: luisrenecaceres@gmail.com, INTRODUCTION The Mexican economy has for several decades shown some of the lowest annual rates of economic growth per capita of Latin American countries, of about 1.5%. This is surprising [...]

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990's one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico's economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national self-sufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth. JEL classifications: O11, O14, O16, O17, J48, J71 Keywords: economic growth, productivity, gender, youth unemployment, INTRODUCTION The Mexican economy has for several decades shown some of the lowest annual rates of economic growth per capita of Latin American countries, of about 1.5%. This is surprising [...]