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Species distribution models (SDMs) are powerful tools in ecology and conservation. Choosing the right environmental drivers and filtering species' occurrences taking their biases into account are key factors to consider before modeling. In this case study, we address five common problems arising during the selection of input data for presence‐only SDMs on an example of a generalist species: the endangered Cantabrian brown bear. First, we focus on the selection of environmental variables that may drive its distribution, testing if climatic variables should be considered at a 1‐km analysis grain. Second, we investigate how filtering the species' data in view of (1) their collection procedures, (2) different time frames, (3) dispersal areas, and (4) subpopulations affects the performance and outputs of the models at three different spatial analysis grains (500 m, 1 km, and 5 km). Our results show that models with different input data yielded only minor differences in performance and behaved properly in terms of model validation, although coarsening the analysis grain deteriorated model performance. Still, the contribution of individual variables and the habitat suitability predictions differed among models. We show that a combination of limited data availability and poor selection of environmental variables can lead to inaccurate predictions. Specifically for the brown bear, we conclude that climatic variables should not be considered for exploring habitat suitability and that the best input data for modeling habitat suitability in the study area originate from (1) observations and traces from the (2) most recent period (2006–2019) in which the population is expanding, (3) not considering cells of dispersing bear occurrences and (4) modeling subpopulations independently (as they show distinct habitat preferences). In conclusion, SDMs can serve as a useful tool for generalist species including all available data; still, expert evaluation from the perspective of data suitability for the purpose of modeling and possible biases is recommended. This is especially important when the results are intended for management and conservation purposes at the local level, and for species that respond to the environment at coarse analysis grains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scent-mediated communication is considered the principal communication channel in many mammal species. Compared with visual and vocal communication, odors persist for a longer time, enabling individuals to interact without being in the same place at the same time. The brown bear (Ursus arctos), like other mammals, carries out chemical communication, for example, by means of scents deposited on marking (or rub) trees. In this study, we assessed rub tree selectivity of the brown bear in the predominantly deciduous forests of the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). We first compared the characteristics of 101 brown bear rub trees with 263 control trees. We then analyzed the potential factors affecting the density of rub trees along 35 survey routes along footpaths. We hypothesized that: (1) bears would select particular trees, or tree species, with characteristics that make them more conspicuous; and (2) that bears would select trees located in areas with the highest presence of conspecifics, depending on the population density or the position of the trees within the species' range. We used linear models and generalized additive models to test these hypotheses. Our results showed that brown bears generally selected more conspicuous trees with a preference for birches (Betula spp.). This choice may facilitate the marking and/or detection of chemical signals and, therefore, the effectiveness of intraspecific communication. Conversely, the abundance of rub trees along footpaths did not seem to depend on the density of bear observations or their relative position within the population center or its border. Our results suggest that Cantabrian brown bears select trees based on their individual characteristics and their location, with no influence of characteristics of the bear population itself. Our findings can be used to locate target trees that could help in population monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The survival of an increasing number of species is threatened by climate change: 20%–30% of plants and animals seem to be at risk of range shift or extinction if global warming reaches levels projected to occur by the end of this century. Plant range shifts may determine whether animal species that rely on plant availability for food and shelter will be affected by new patterns of plant occupancy and availability. Brown bears in temperate forested habitats mostly forage on plants and it may be expected that climate change will affect the viability of the endangered populations of southern Europe. Here, we assess the potential impact of climate change on seven plants that represent the main food resources and shelter for the endangered population of brown bears in the Cantabrian Mountains (Spain). Our simulations suggest that the geographic range of these plants might be altered under future climate warming, with most bear resources reducing their range. As a consequence, this brown bear population is expected to decline drastically in the next 50 years. Range shifts of brown bear are also expected to displace individuals from mountainous areas towards more humanized ones, where we can expect an increase in conflicts and bear mortality rates. Additional negative effects might include: (a) a tendency to a more carnivorous diet, which would increase conflicts with cattle farmers; (b) limited fat storage before hibernation due to the reduction of oak forests; (c) increased intraspecific competition with other acorn consumers, that is, wild ungulates and free‐ranging livestock; and (d) larger displacements between seasons to find main trophic resources. The magnitude of the changes projected by our models emphasizes that conservation practices focused only on bears may not be appropriate and thus we need more dynamic conservation planning aimed at reducing the impact of climate change in forested landscapes. The brown bear Ursus arctos range in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain) is expected to reduce in the next 50 years, mostly due to the effect of climate change on vegetation range shifts. Conservation plans that overlook potential range shifts have poor expected outcomes for most species. Indeed, projecting future scenarios of forest shifts given climate change predictions can help inform conservation planning to mitigate bear food and shelter range contractions. Conservation practices only focused on the Cantabrian brown bear population may not be appropriate; rather, we also need more dynamic conservation planning aimed to reduce the impact of climate change in forested landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many large carnivore populations are expanding into human-modified landscapes and the subsequent increase in coexistence between humans and large carnivores may intensify various types of conflicts. A proactive management approach is critical to successful mitigation of such conflicts. The Cantabrian Mountains in Northern Spain are home to the last remaining native brown bear (Ursus arctos) population of the Iberian Peninsula, which is also amongst the most severely threatened European populations, with an important core group residing in the province of Asturias. There are indications that this small population is demographically expanding its range. The identification of the potential areas of brown bear range expansion is crucial to facilitate proactive conservation and management strategies towards promoting a further recovery of this small and isolated population. Here, we used a presence-only based maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach to model habitat suitability and identify the areas in the Asturian portion of the Cantabrian Mountains that are likely to be occupied in the future by this endangered brown bear population following its range expansion. We used different spatial scales to identify brown bear range suitability according to different environmental, topographic, climatic and human impact variables. Our models mainly show that: (1) 4977 km2 are still available as suitable areas for bear range expansion, which represents nearly half of the territory of Asturias; (2) most of the suitable areas in the western part of the province are already occupied (77% of identified areas, 2820 km2), 41.4% of them occurring inside protected areas, which leaves relatively limited good areas for further expansion in this part of the province, although there might be more suitable areas in surrounding provinces; and (3) in the eastern sector of the Asturian Cantabrian Mountains, 62% (2155 km2) of the land was classified as suitable, and this part of the province hosts 44.3% of the total area identified as suitable areas for range expansion. Our results further highlight the importance of increasing: (a) the connectivity between the currently occupied western part of Asturias and the areas of potential range expansion in the eastern parts of the province; and (b) the protection of the eastern sector of the Cantabrian Mountains, where most of the future population expansion may be expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Evolutionary traps, and their derivative, ecological traps, occur when animals make maladaptive decisions based on seemingly reliable environmental cues, and are important mechanistic explanations for declines in animal populations. Despite the interest in large carnivore conservation in human‐modified landscapes, the emergence of traps and their potential effects on the conservation of large carnivore populations has frequently been overlooked. The brown bear Ursus arctos typifies the challenges facing large carnivore conservation and recent research has reported that this species can show maladaptive behaviours in human‐modified landscapes. Here we review, describe and discuss scenarios recognised as evolutionary or ecological traps for brown bears, and propose possible trap scenarios and mechanisms that have the potential to affect the dynamics and viability of brown bear populations. Six potential trap scenarios have been detected for brown bears in human‐modified landscapes: 1) food resources close to human settlements; 2) agricultural landscapes; 3) roads; 4) artificial feeding sites; 5) hunting by humans; and 6) other human activities. Because these traps are likely to be of contrasting relevance for different demographic segments of bear populations, we highlight the importance of evaluations of the relative demographic consequences of different trap types for wildlife management. We also suggest that traps may be behind the decreases in brown bear and other large carnivore populations in human‐modified landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Infanticide is a significant evolutionary force influencing carnivore behaviours, as it is one of the primary contributors to offspring mortality. Female multimale mating, which creates paternal uncertainty, is known to reduce infanticide. We propose that two crucial steps are needed for this strategy to work in solitary species like brown bears, Ursus arctos. First, after mating, females should choose dens within their mating area (step 1), boosting the chances of encountering potential fathers of cub(s) after den emergence in spring. However, the efficacy of this strategy hinges on males' fidelity to the same mating areas from one year to the next (step 2). Our study confirmed that pregnant females consistently selected dens within their mating areas, with significant overlap (around 90%) between areas used by females with cubs and their mating zones. Males also demonstrated fidelity (over 65%) to mating areas over 2 consecutive years. Infanticide significantly shapes the sociospatial ecology of female brown bears, a phenomenon that can carry nutritional costs for females with cubs, and influence settlement patterns near human shields to increase reproductive success. Additionally, in hunted populations, removing resident males can trigger an influx of potentially infanticidal bears from elsewhere. • Infanticide represents one of the main causes of offspring mortality in carnivores. • Natural selection has favoured several behavioural counterstrategies in females. • Female bear multimale mating reduces infanticide by creating paternal uncertainty. • Males show fidelity to the same mating areas from one year to the next. • Females with cubs remain in the mating area to increase chances of meeting fathers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We characterized a brown bear (Ursus arctos) feeding aggregation that occurred in an oak (Quercus spp.) forest in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain), during the hyperphagia period 2017 (Sep to Dec), which was an atypical year in terms of low fructification success due to late frost events and drought. We described (1) number, sex, and age class of aggregated bears; (2) temporal use of the area; and (3) bear interactions. We identified a minimum of 31 individuals, representing 10% of the estimated Cantabrian bear population. The number of adults increased during the study period, whereas the number of subadults decreased, which could be related to a displacement of subadults by dominant adults. The proximity of the aggregation site to a public road attracted numerous people to observe the bears. To minimize adverse bear-human interactions, we recommend providing educational material on best bear-viewing practices as well as on-site staffing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]