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Background: Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country., Methods: We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025., Results: Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025., Conclusions: The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Demographic, socioeconomic and cultural changes in India have increased longevity, delayed childbearing, decreased parity and resulted in a more westernised lifestyle, contributing to the increasing burden of cancer, especially among women., Methods: We evaluated secular changes in the incidence of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer in Mumbai women aged 30-64 between 1976 and 2005. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated and presented by site and calendar period. An age-period-cohort (APC) analysis quantified recent time trends and the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was obtained from the drift parameter, expressing the linear time trend common to both calendar period and birth cohort., Results: Over the 30-year study period, the age-standardised rates significantly increased for breast cancer (EAPC: 1.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0, 1.3)), significantly decreased for cervical cancer (EAPC: -1.8% (95% CI: -2.0, -1.6)) and there was no statistically significant change for ovarian cancer (EAPC: 0.3% (95% CI: -0.1, 0.6)). For breast and cervical cancer, the best-fitting model was the APC model., Conclusions: The rates of breast, cervical and ovarian cancer remain low in comparison with western countries, and the divergent trends of breast (increasing) and cervical cancer (decreasing) in Mumbai were similar to those observed in several other Asian countries. The changing risk profile in successive generations - improved education, higher socioeconomic status, later age at marriage and at first child, and lower parity - may in combination partially explain the diverging generational changes in breast and cervical cancer in Mumbai in the last decades.

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.

Background: Breast, cervix and ovarian cancers contribute more than 45% of the total in women in Mumbai and survival proportions for these neoplasms are very high in most developed populations in the World. The authors here report and discuss the population-based survival for these cancers in Mumbai, India., Methods: Follow-up information on 4865 cancers of breast, cervix and ovary, registered in the Mumbai Population Based Cancer Registry for the period 1992-1994 was obtained by a variety of methods, including matching with death certificates from the Mumbai vital statistics registration system, postal/telephone enquiries, home visits and scrutiny of medical records. The survival for each case was determined as the duration between the date of diagnosis and date of death, date of loss to follow-up or the closing date of the study (December 31(st), 1999). Cumulative observed and relative survival was calculated by the Hakulinen Method. For comparison of results with other populations, age-standardized relative survival (ASRS) was calculated by directly standardizing age specific relative survival to the specific age distributions of the estimated global incidence of major cancers in 1985. The log rank test was used in univariate analysis to identify the potentially important prognostic variables. The variables showing statistical significance in univariate analysis were introduced stepwise into a Cox Regression model to identify the independent predictors of survival., Results: The 5-year relative survival rates were 46.2% for breast, 47.7% for the cervix and 25.4% for the ovary. Higher survival was observed for those younger than 35 years for all these three sites. For each, survival declined with advancing age. Single patients who remained unmarried had better survival. For all sites Muslims had a better and Christians a lower survival as compared to Hindus. Education did not appear to be of significance. Survival decreased rapidly with advancing clinical extent of disease for all sites. With localized cancer, 5-year rates ranged from 54.7% to 69.3%, for regional spread 20.4% to 41.6% and distant metastasis not a single site recorded more than 5%. On multivariate analysis, age and extent of disease emerged as independent predictors of survival for all the sites., Conclusion: All the sites included in the study demonstrated moderate survival rates with significant variation. Comparison with other populations revealed lower survival rates as compared to developed countries, particularly for breast and ovary. In Indian populations survival proportions did not show much variation for these cancers. Early detection and treatment are clearly important factors to reduce the mortality from these cancers.

A great deal is known on the epidemiology of breast cancer. In this paper an attempt has been made to discuss the epidemiology and trends in incidence of breast cancer in various populations of India with special reference to the data available at Mumbai Cancer Registry. For discussing descriptive epidemiology of breast cancer the data collected for most recent year, 1999, by Mumbai Cancer Registry has been utilized. For studying time trends in breast cancer the data collected for the Mumbai Cancer Registry for the years 1982-99 and for Bangalore and Chennai 1982-96 and for Barshi, Bhopal and Delhi for the years 1988-96 has been employed. A linear regression model based on the logarithms of the various incidence rates, a method frequently used for studying time trends, was applied to the entire dataset. Age specific incidence rates for breast cancer for most of the urban population in India were found to show steep increase till menopause years, after which the curves plateau. Most of the registries data indicate that Christians in India have the greatest risk of breast risk and Muslims have the lowest rate. In all the populations breast cancer was found to be less prevalent at the lower education level and the incidence increased with the education level. The trends for increase in breast cancer incidence over time for most of the populations in India were found to be statistically significant.

Reliable data from the Bombay Cancer Registry show an increase in the age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer in women from 17.9 to 24.9 per 100,000 population between 1965 and 1985. By fitting a linear regression model based on the logarithm of the breast cancer incidence rates, it was found that the average percentage increases in crude, age-adjusted and truncated rates over this 20-year period were highly significant. Evaluation of these trends in the light of proven etiological factors suggests that the increase in breast cancer incidence is related to a gradual decrease in the proportion of women having a first child before 20 years of age and to an increase in the proportion of "never married" women. These findings were also applicable to the subgroup of Hindus (70% of the population) who show a significant increase in breast cancer over this period as well as a clear cohort effect, the younger birth cohorts in general having higher rates than the 5-year older cohorts. However, the Muslim and Christian subgroups were found to have stable rates. An earlier study of cervical cancer incidence over the same period showed stable rates among Muslims and Christians but a declining trend among Hindus. Breast cancer is now the leading cancer in women in Bombay, while cancer of the cervix uteri predominates in the rest of the country. Well-designed epidemiological studies are urgently needed to explain the phenomenon and to help control the increase in breast cancer before it assumes the magnitude observed in the developed countries.

In this paper an attempt has been made to study the histologic and epidemiologic features of breast cancer in women from various religious groups of Greater Bombay. The crude and age-adjusted incidence rates are seen to be the highest in the Parsi community followed by the Christian, Moslem, and Hindu groups. In all the religious groups, an increase in incidence of breast cancer is first seen in the third decade. This is followed by a sharp increase up to the age of 50-54, leading to a slight drop, and then a consistent but slower rise in the older ages. The high risk of developing this cancer in Parsi women as compared with the Christian, Moslem, and Hindu experience may be due to a higher proportion of Parsi women remaining unmarried, their higher age at marriage, lower age at first pregnancy, broad spacing of pregnancies, and fewer numbers of pregnancies. The distribution according to histologic types of breast cancer in India is characterized by a high frequency of infiltrating duct carcinoma. Medullary, lobular, and squamous cell carcinoma were typical histological varieties of the older age groups, whereas ductal carcinoma was encountered mostly in premenopausal women.