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This study used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Intervention analysis technique to examine weekly stock indices of the hotel segment and the casino hotel segment in comparison with the S&P 500 index. The results indicate that casino hotel firms were affected at the beginning of the recession and hotel firms and S&P 500 firms were not affected until nine months later. In addition, this study performed multiple t-tests to compare the average financial ratios between the two hotel segments to reveal changes in financial structures through the recession. The findings of this study may help industry practitioners and investors cope with future economic downturns and fill a gap in the existing literature by demonstrating the process of identifying lag time of an impact using ARIMA with Intervention Analysis technique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose -- This study aims to attempt to examine whether the increase in hotel room capacity in the USA had a significant impact on nationwide aggregated weekly revenue per available room (RevPAR) during the recession of 2007-2009 and forecast average RevPAR, Occupancy and Average Daily Rate (ADR) for 2013 and 2014. Design/methodology/approach -- Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Intervention analysis technique, this study examined the significance of the fluctuations in weekly RevPAR, room capacity and market demand through the recent recession and forecasted hotel performance for 2013 and 2014. Findings -- The results of time series analysis suggest that the fast growth of room capacity during the recession was one of the main causes of the decrease in RevPAR. The 9,878 more than expected increase in average weekly number of rooms probably caused at least $0.10 more than expected decrease in average weekly RevPAR. The findings of this study also suggest that the US lodging industry has been facing more severe oversupply since the recession and fully rebound of RevPAR cannot be expected in the very near future. Practical implications -- The findings of this study will help stakeholders make more informed decisions to cope with possible future economic downturns. By quantifying the capacity increase and forecasting future market demand, this study provides hotel investors with empirical evidence on the overdevelopment and insights into expected overall hotel performance in next two years. This study has also discussed the cyclical patterns of hotel development during the past two recessions. Originality/value -- By identifying overdevelopment as one of the main causes of RevPAR decrease during the recession, this study contributes to the literature by adding an alternative explanation of RevPAR fluctuations and deepens the understanding of the adverse effects overdevelopment has on the lodging industry. The findings of this study will help hotel investors develop more informed future expansion plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine how the recent recession affected Iowa's gaming industry by analyzing gaming volumes before and through the recession. Design/methodology/approach – This study used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with intervention analysis to examine Iowa statewide aggregated monthly slot coin-in, table drop, and admission from December 2001 through June 2012. Findings – The results of analyses show that: slot coin-in was not affected by the recession; table drop was slightly affected, but started to recover in late 2010; and monthly admission was not affected by the recession, and showed a significant increase after the recession. The results also indicate that the decrease in table drop in Iowa casinos represented only a very small amount of state gaming revenue in 2008. Therefore, the findings of this study suggest that Iowa's gaming volume was not significantly affected by the recent recession. In other words, Iowa's gaming industry is still recession-proof. Practical implications – Current economic conditions suggest that the threat of a double-dip recession is quite real. The findings of this study are expected to help casino managers in Iowa understand how non-destination casinos behaved differently through the recession and strategically plan for a possible future economic downturn. In fact, the significant increase of monthly admission during the last recession implies that the Iowa gaming industry has actually benefited from the recession by accommodating more patrons. Therefore, to capitalize on the next recession, Iowa's casino operators should consider reducing the number of table games and increasing the number of slot machines to accommodate more slot players and reduce operating costs. Originality/value – Most existing gaming-related research focuses on gaming destinations such as Las Vegas and Atlantic City. No known study on gaming volume in non-destination gaming markets has been identified. By examining Iowa's gaming volume through the recession, this study provides initial empirical evidence of the impact of recession on non-destination gaming markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempted to identify, quantify, and explain the possible impact the recession had on restaurant stock performance in comparison with the S&P 500 index using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with intervention analysis approach and t tests. Based on the North American Industry Classification System, limited-service (NAICS code 722211) and full-service (NAICS code 722110) restaurant segments were examined. The results of this study suggest that the limited-service restaurant segment was recession-proof and its stock index outperformed that of both the full-service restaurant segment and the S&P 500 index. The findings of this study will not only provide the industry and investors with empirical evidence of restaurant performance during and after the recession; but also fill the gap of literature by applying ARIMA with intervention analysis in identifying the lag time of impact an event has on time series in hospitality-related research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to examine the performance of three smoothing methods on forecasting weekly Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) following the recent recession in comparison to more sophisticated time series forecasting methods. The results of this study show that simpler methods perform better. Simple Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing outperformed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Artificial Neural Networks in all 10 of 5-week fore casting horizons, which suggests accurate weekly RevPAR forecasting in both short and long term can be achieved with simple, easy-to-learn, yet effective methods. The findings of the study are expected to not only contribute to the limited literature of RevPAR forecasting, but also provide practitioners with empirical evidence for selecting appropriate time series forecasting methods for weekly RevPAR forecasting in different time horizons, particularly following an economic downturn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disregarding the oversupplied market, Shanghai's high-end hotel sector has been experiencing rapid expansions in past two decades, especially after the city won the bid to host the World Exposition 2010. New projects are in the pipeline and more developments are expected in the future. This study attempts to identify the magnitude of overcapacity for Shanghai's four- and five-star hotels in the year of 2011 by forecasting monthly market demand and comparing the forecasts with expected monthly capacity. It also provides forecasted monthly demand on Shanghai's four- and five-star hotels in the years of 2012 and 2013 to be used as references by stakeholders of the industry. In addition, this study attempts to provide the reasons behind the overcapacity and provides stakeholders with suggestions regarding future hotel developments in Shanghai. Box-Jenkins procedure was used and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed for the forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]