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As temperatures rise, timing of reproduction is changing at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in asynchrony between consumers and their resources. The match-mismatch hypothesis (MMH) suggests that trophic asynchrony will have negative impacts on average productivity of consumers. It is also thought to lead to selection on timing of breeding, as the most asynchronous individuals will show the greatest reductions in fitness. Using a 30-year individual-level dataset of breeding phenology and success from a population of European shags on the Isle of May, Scotland, we tested a series of predictions consistent with the hypothesis that fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony are increasing. These predictions quantified changes in average annual breeding success and strength of selection on timing of breeding, over time and in relation to rising sea surface temperature (SST) and diet composition. Annual average (population) breeding success was negatively correlated with average lay date yet showed no trend over time, or in relation to increasing SST or the proportion of principal prey in the diet, as would be expected if trophic mismatch was increasing. At the individual level, we found evidence for stabilising selection and directional selection for earlier breeding, although the earliest birds were not the most productive. However, selection for earlier laying did not strengthen over time, or in relation to SST or slope of the seasonal shift in diet from principal to secondary prey. We found that the optimum lay date advanced by almost 4 weeks during the study, and that the population mean lay date tracked this shift. Our results indicate that average performance correlates with absolute timing of breeding of the population, and there is selection for earlier laying at the individual level. However, we found no fitness signatures of a change in the impact of climate-induced trophic mismatch, and evidence that shags are tracking long-term shifts in optimum timing. This suggests that if asynchrony is present in this system, breeding success is not impacted. Our approach highlights the advantages of examining variation at both population and individual levels when assessing evidence for fitness impacts of trophic asynchrony., (© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.)

Colonization, speciation and extinction are dynamic processes that influence global patterns of species richness 1-6 . Island biogeography theory predicts that the contribution of these processes to the accumulation of species diversity depends on the area and isolation of the island 7,8 . Notably, there has been no robust global test of this prediction for islands where speciation cannot be ignored 9 , because neither the appropriate data nor the analytical tools have been available. Here we address both deficiencies to reveal, for island birds, the empirical shape of the general relationships that determine how colonization, extinction and speciation rates co-vary with the area and isolation of islands. We compiled a global molecular phylogenetic dataset of birds on islands, based on the terrestrial avifaunas of 41 oceanic archipelagos worldwide (including 596 avian taxa), and applied a new analysis method to estimate the sensitivity of island-specific rates of colonization, speciation and extinction to island features (area and isolation). Our model predicts-with high explanatory power-several global relationships. We found a decline in colonization with isolation, a decline in extinction with area and an increase in speciation with area and isolation. Combining the theoretical foundations of island biogeography 7,8 with the temporal information contained in molecular phylogenies 10 proves a powerful approach to reveal the fundamental relationships that govern variation in biodiversity across the planet.

Projecting the fates of populations under climate change is one of global change biology's foremost challenges. Here, we seek to identify the contributions that temperature-mediated local adaptation and plasticity make to spatial variation in nesting phenology, a phenotypic trait showing strong responses to warming. We apply a mixed modeling framework to a Britain-wide spatiotemporal dataset comprising >100 000 records of first egg dates from four single-brooded passerine bird species. The average temperature during a specific time period (sliding window) strongly predicts spatiotemporal variation in lay date. All four species exhibit phenological plasticity, advancing lay date by 2-5 days °C(-1) . The initiation of this sliding window is delayed further north, which may be a response to a photoperiod threshold. Using clinal trends in phenology and temperature, we are able to estimate the temperature sensitivity of selection on lay date (B), but our estimates are highly sensitive to the temporal position of the sliding window. If the sliding window is of fixed duration with a start date determined by photoperiod, we find B is tracked by phenotypic plasticity. If, instead, we allow the start and duration of the sliding window to change with latitude, we find plasticity does not track B, although in this case, at odds with theoretical expectations, our estimates of B differ across latitude vs. longitude. We argue that a model combining photoperiod and mean temperature is most consistent with current understanding of phenological cues in passerines, the results from which suggest that each species could respond to projected increases in spring temperatures through plasticity alone. However, our estimates of B require further validation., (© 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Island biotas emerge from the interplay between colonisation, speciation and extinction and are often the scene of spectacular adaptive radiations. A common assumption is that insular diversity is at a dynamic equilibrium, but for remote islands, such as Hawaii or Galápagos, this idea remains untested. Here, we reconstruct the temporal accumulation of terrestrial bird species of the Galápagos using a novel phylogenetic method that estimates rates of biota assembly for an entire community. We show that species richness on the archipelago is in an ascending phase and does not tend towards equilibrium. The majority of the avifauna diversifies at a slow rate, without detectable ecological limits. However, Darwin's finches form an exception: they rapidly reach a carrying capacity and subsequently follow a coalescent-like diversification process. Together, these results suggest that avian diversity of remote islands is rising, and challenge the mutual exclusivity of the non-equilibrium and equilibrium ecological paradigms., (© 2015 The Authors Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.)

1. Dispersal is one of the key ecological parameters but it is very difficult to quantify directly. As a consequence, empirical studies often ignore dispersal or use indirect measures. 2. Ringing data have previously been used to estimate the natal dispersal distances of 47 British passerine bird species. This provides an excellent opportunity to examine the potential of various indirect measures to predict natal dispersal distances in British birds. 3. We use a phylogenetic comparative framework and single- and multipredictor models including ecomorphological, behavioural or ecological traits to predict natal dispersal distance. 4. A multipredictor model that includes Kipp's distance (a measure of wing tip length), bill depth and tail graduation explains 45% of the interspecific variation in natal dispersal distance. These morphological characters all relate to aerodynamics with stronger flyers dispersing further. 5. However, an index of migration is a strong (but less informative) correlate of dispersal distance and Kipp's distance and bill depth are strong correlates of migration. Thus, we cannot disentangle whether these ecomorphological traits influence dispersal distance directly or whether the relationship between ecomorphology and dispersal is mediated through migratory behaviour. 6. Notwithstanding uncertainties regarding the causal links between dispersal distance and wing morphology, we suggest that two ecomorphological traits, Kipp's distance and bill depth, may provide a useful surrogate.

Sympatric speciation is now accepted as theoretically plausible and a likely explanation for divergence in a handful of taxa, but its contribution to large-scale patterns of speciation remains contentious. A major problem is that it is difficult to differentiate between alternate scenarios of geographic speciation when species ranges have shifted substantially in the past. Previous studies have searched for a signal of the geographic mode of speciation by testing for a correlation between time since speciation and range overlap. Here we use simulations to show that the proportion of species showing zero or complete range overlap are more reliable indicators of the geography of speciation than is the correlation between time since speciation and overlap. We then apply these findings to the distributions of 291 pairs of avian sister species. Although 49% of pairs show some overlap in their ranges, our simulations show that this is not surprising under allopatric models of speciation. More revealingly, less than 2% show complete range overlap. Our simulations demonstrate that the observed patterns are most consistent with a model in which allopatric speciation is dominant but in which sympatric speciation is also present and contributes 5% of speciation events.

A characteristic signature of adaptive radiation is a slowing of the rate of speciation toward the present. On the basis of molecular phylogenies, studies of single clades have frequently found evidence for a slowdown in diversification rate and have interpreted this as evidence for density dependent speciation. However, we demonstrated via simulation that large clades are expected to show stronger slowdowns than small clades, even if the probability of speciation and extinction remains constant through time. This is a consequence of exponential growth: clades, which, by chance, diversify at above the average rate early in their history, will tend to be large. They will also tend to regress back to the average diversification rate later on, and therefore show a slowdown. We conducted a meta-analysis of the distribution of speciation events through time, focusing on sequence-based phylogenies for 45 clades of birds. Thirteen of the 23 clades (57%) that include more than 20 species show significant slowdowns. The high frequency of slowdowns observed in large clades is even more extreme than expected under a purely stochastic constant-rate model, but is consistent with the adaptive radiation model. Taken together, our data strongly support a model of density-dependent speciation in birds, whereby speciation slows as ecological opportunities and geographical space place limits on clade growth.

Theory predicts that biogeographic factors should play a central role in promoting population divergence and speciation. Previous empirical studies into biogeography and diversification have been relatively restricted in terms of the geographical area, phylogenetic scope, and the range of biogeographic factors considered. Here we present a global analysis of allopatric phenotypic divergence (measured as subspecies richness) across more than 9600 bird species. The main aim of this study was to examine the extent to which biogeographical factors can explain patterns of phenotypic divergence. Analysis of the taxonomic distribution of subspecies among species suggests that subspecies formation and extinction have occurred at a considerably faster rate than has species formation. However, the observed distribution departs from the expectation under a random birth-death model of diversification. Across 19 phylogenetic trees, we find no significant linear relationship between species age and subspecies richness, implying that species age is a poor predictor of subspecies richness. Both subspecies richness and subspecies diversification rate are found to exhibit low phylogenetic signal, meaning that closely related species do not tend to possess similar numbers of subspecies. As predicted by theory, high subspecies richness was associated with large breeding range size, island dwelling, inhabitation of montane regions, habitat heterogeneity, and low latitude. Of these factors, breeding range size was the variable that explained the most variation. Unravelling whether species that have invaded previously glacial areas have more or fewer subspecies than expected proves to be complicated due to a covariation between the postglacial colonization, latitude, geographic range size, and subspecies richness. However, the effect of postglacial colonization on subspecies richness appears to be small. Mapping the distribution of species' subspecies richness globally reveals geographical patterns that correspond to many of the predictions of the statistical models, but may also reflect geographical variation in taxonomic practice. Overall, we demonstrate that biogeographic models can explain about 30% of the global variation in subspecies richness in birds.

One of the most striking patterns in evolutionary biology is that clades may differ greatly in the number of species they contain. Numerous hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, and several have been tested using phylogenetic methods. Remarkably, however, all such tests performed to date have been characterized by modest explanatory power, which has generated an interest in explanations stressing the importance of random processes. Here we make use of phylogenetic methods to test whether ecological variables, typically ignored in previous models, may explain phylogenetic tree imbalance in birds. We show that diversification rate possesses an intermediate phylogenetic signal across families. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we then build a multipredictor model that explains more than 50% of the variation in diversification rate among clades. High annual dispersal is identified as the strongest predictor of high rates of diversification. In addition, high diversification rate is strongly associated with feeding generalization. In all but one instance, these key findings remain qualitatively unchanged when we use an alternative phylogeny and methodology and when small clades, containing five species or less, are excluded. Taken together, these results suggest that large-scale patterns in avian diversification can be explained by variation in intrinsic biology.

The taxonomic rank of subspecies remains highly contentious, largely because traditional subspecies boundaries have sometimes been contradicted by molecular phylogenetic data. The most complete meta-analysis to date, for instance, found that only 3% of traditional avian subspecies represented distinct phylogenetic lineages. However, the global generality of this phenomenon remains unclear due to this previous study's narrow geographic focus on continental Nearctic and Palearctic subspecies. Here, we present a new global analysis of avian subspecies and show that 36% of avian subspecies are, in fact, phylogenetically distinct. Among biogeographic realms we find significant differences in the proportion of subspecies that are phylogenetically distinct, with Nearctic/Palearctic subspecies showing significantly reduced levels of differentiation. Additionally, there are differences between island and continental subspecies, with continental subspecies significantly less likely to be genetically distinct. These results indicate that the overall level of congruence between taxonomic subspecies and molecular phylogenetic data is greater than previously thought. We suggest that the widespread impression that avian subspecies are not real arises from a predominance of studies focusing on continental subspecies in North America and Eurasia, regions which show unusually low levels of genetic differentiation. The broader picture is that avian subspecies often provide an effective short-cut for estimating patterns of intraspecific genetic diversity, thereby providing a useful tool for the study of evolutionary divergence and conservation.

Tree diversity exerts a strong influence on consumer communities, but most work has involved single time point measurements over short time periods. Describing temporal variation associated with diversity effects over longer time periods is necessary to fully understand the effects of tree diversity on ecological function.We conducted a year‐long study in an experimental system in southern Mexico assessing the effects of tree diversity on the abundance and diversity of foraging birds. To this end, we recorded bird visitation patterns in 32 tree plots (21 × 21 m; 12 tree species monocultures, 20 four‐species polycultures) every 45 days (n = 8 surveys) and for each plot estimated bird abundance, richness, functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). In each case, we reported temporal (intra‐annual) variation in the magnitude of tree diversity effects, and calculated the temporal stability of these bird responses.Across surveys, tree diversity noticeably affected bird responses, demonstrated by significantly higher abundance (43%), richness (32%), PD (25%) and FD (25%) of birds visiting polyculture plots compared to monoculture plots, as well as a distinct species composition between plot types. We also found intra‐annual variation in tree diversity effects on these response variables, ranging from surveys for which the diversity effect was not significant to surveys where a significant 80% increase (e.g. for bird FD and PD) was observed in polyculture relative to monoculture plots. Notably, tree diversity increased the stability of all bird responses, with polycultures having a greater stability abundance (18%), richness (38%), PD (32%), and FD (35%) of birds visiting tree species polycultures compared to monocultures.These results show that tree diversity not only increases bird visitation to plots, but also stabilizes bird habitat usage over time in ways that could implicate insurance‐related mechanisms. Such findings are highly relevant for understanding the long‐term effects of plant diversity on vertebrates and the persistence of bird‐related ecosystem functions. More work is needed to unveil the ecological mechanisms behind temporal variation in vertebrate responses to tree diversity and their consequences for community structure and function. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are wide reports of advances in the timing of spring migration of birds over time and in relation to rising temperatures, though phenological responses vary substantially within and among species. An understanding of the ecological, life-history and geographic variables that predict this intra- and interspecific variation can guide our projections of how populations and species are likely to respond to future climate change., Here, we conduct phylogenetic meta-analyses addressing slope estimates of the timing of avian spring migration regressed on (i) year and (ii) temperature, representing a total of 413 species across five continents. We take into account slope estimation error and examine phylogenetic, ecological and geographic predictors of intra- and interspecific variation., We confirm earlier findings that on average birds have significantly advanced their spring migration time by 2·1 days per decade and 1·2 days °C−1. We find that over time and in response to warmer spring conditions, short-distance migrants have advanced spring migratory phenology by more than long-distance migrants. We also find that larger bodied species show greater advance over time compared to smaller bodied species. Our results did not reveal any evidence that interspecific variation in migration response is predictable on the basis of species' habitat or diet., We detected a substantial phylogenetic signal in migration time in response to both year and temperature, suggesting that some of the shifts in migratory phenological response to climate are predictable on the basis of phylogeny. However, we estimate high levels of species and spatial variance relative to phylogenetic variance, which is consistent with plasticity in response to climate evolving fairly rapidly and being more influenced by adaptation to current local climate than by common descent., On average, avian spring migration times have advanced over time and as spring has become warmer. While we are able to identify predictors that explain some of the true among-species variation in response, substantial intra- and interspecific variation in migratory response remains to be explained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]