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Phenological advances and trophic mismatches are frequently reported ecological consequences of climate warming. Trophic mismatches occur when phenological responses to environmental conditions differ among trophic levels such that the timing of resource demand by consumers becomes decoupled from supply. We used 25 years of demographic measurements of a migratory songbird (the black-throated blue warbler Setophaga caerulescens) to compare its breeding phenology to the phenology of both its caterpillar prey and the foliage on which caterpillars feed. Caterpillar biomass in this forest did not show a predictable seasonal pulse. Nest initiation by warblers in this northern hardwood forest was therefore not timed to coincide with a peak in food availability for nestlings. Nonetheless, timing of first clutches was strongly associated with spring leaf expansion (slope ± SE = 0.56 ± 0.08 days per day of change in leaf phenology, R2 = 0.66). Warblers adjusted the timing of breeding to early springs mainly by shortening the interval between arrival and clutch initiation, but this likely has limits because recent early springs are approaching the relatively inflexible dates when birds arrive on the breeding grounds. Although the timing of first nests did not match 1:1 with leaf-out phenology, the adjustments in breeding time maximized mean annual reproductive success. Nest predation had the greatest effect on annual reproductive success, but the ability of nesting warblers to appropriately track leaf phenology accounted for effects on annual reproductive success comparable to the influence of variation in caterpillar abundance and conspecific density. Nesting phenology in black-throated blue warblers was generally well matched to the timing of leaf-out, even though the match was not 1:1. Without measurements of reproductive success, these unequal phenological shifts might otherwise have been interpreted as having negative ecological consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective conservation and management of migratory bird species requires an understanding of when and how their populations are limited and regulated. Since 1969, my colleagues and I have been studying migratory songbird populations in their breeding quarters at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in north-central New Hampshire, USA, and since 1986, in their winter quarters in the Greater Antilles (Jamaica). Long-term data on the abundance and demography of these populations, coupled with experimental tests of mechanisms, indicate that processes operating in the breeding area (e.g. density-dependent fecundity, food limitation) are sufficient to limit and regulate the local abundance of these species. At the same time, limiting factors operating in the non-breeding season (e.g. climate-induced food limitation in winter quarters and especially mortality during migration) also have important impacts on migrant populations. Furthermore, recent studies have shown that limiting processes during the winter period can carry over into the breeding season and affect reproductive output. These findings clearly demonstrate that to understand changes in abundance of long-distance migrant species requires knowledge of events operating throughout the annual cycle, which presents a challenge to researchers, managers and others concerned with the welfare of these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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In short-lived species, fecundity strongly influences population size. For those species with multiple breeding attempts per breeding season, variance in fecundity is best explained by the number of breeding attempts. For birds, multiple brooding may he influenced by food availability. Here, we report results of a food supplementation experiment that tests the role of food as a mechanism driving variation among individuals in the frequency of multiple brooding in a Neotropical migrant songbird. the Black-throated Blue Warbler (Dendroica caerulescens). Supplementally fed females produced more second broods, spent less time foraging and more time loafing, and stayed closer to their nests than did control females. Fed and control females did not differ in the number or mass of young fledged from the first nesting attempt. Supplemental food increased the probability that females would initiate second broods in both a low and an average food year, suggesting that this population is food limited during the breeding season in most years. Our results thus demonstrate that food availability can strongly influence annual fecundity in migratory bird species breeding in temperate forests, which, in turn, affects annual recruitment rates arid population size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]