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Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the southeast of Britain but increasing in the northwest, we showthat, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining southeast population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the northwest was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to more than or equal to 1) in the southeast. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the 78thannual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2014.Many species have shifted their range towards the Earth's poles in response to global temperature increases. Data from four European Constant Effort Sites (CES) ringing schemes were examined to determine the impact of large-scale temperature variations on productivity in a group of seven migratory bird species to determine the potential for future range changes. Increased productivity at northern sites was apparent only in Reed WarblerAcrocephalus scirpaceus, although there was evidence of local adaptation in six species, suggesting that the rate of northward range shift may be constrained by adaptation to local climatic conditions.A study on the role of carry-over effects in RedstartPhoenicurus phoenicurus, Spotted FlycatcherMuscicapa striataand Wood WarblerPhylloscopus sibilatrixfound that carry-over effects from passage regions impacted on the timing of breeding more strongly than climate on the breeding grounds and that warmer conditions in the breeding area were not associated with reduced productivity.Work on the impact of environmental variables on annual population changes found that, over 40 years, the strongest impact on migrants was rainfall in the Sahel. Over 25 years, positive population changes in response to wetter winters were found for 12 of 16 species studied.Data were submitted for 132 CE sites in 2014. Long-term (1984–2013) population trends derived from the CES data have changed little in the past year. The abundance of five migrant species and five resident species decreased significantly in 2014 compared to the five-year mean (2009–13). The abundance of five of these species (Willow WarblerPhylloscopus trochilus, Sedge WarblerAcrocephalus schoenobaenus, BlackbirdTurdus merula, ChaffinchFringilla coelebsand GreenfinchChloris chloris) was at its lowest since CES monitoring began. There were significant increases in abundance for three species. Productivity decreased significantly in Willow TitPoecile montanacompared to the five-year mean (2009–13), but there were significant increases for eleven species (seven residents and four migrants),with productivity for Reed Warbler, Blackbird and BullfinchPyrrhula pyrrhulaat its highest since CES began. There were only two significant changes in survival in 2014.A total of 176 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) projects were active in 2014, the highest total ever, with 22 new projects starting, 17 of which involved RAS target species. Projects were carried out on Tawny OwlStrix alucoand SwiftApus apusfor the first time.The total number of birds ringed in 2014 exceeded one million for the third time (1,047,026) and comprised 520,477 first-year birds, 303,086 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 29,799 unaged birds and 193,664 nestlings. In addition, there were 226,303 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site.In total, 28,187 recoveries of BTO-ringed birds were reported for 2014. A selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements is presented, as well as longevity records established during the year. The numbers of birds recovered between 2010 and 2013 have been revised as data submitted as retraps have been examined and some have been reclassified as recoveries.For the fifth year running, annual totals of nest records surpassed 40,000, reaching 46,382. Mean laying dates for 55 species were significantly earlier than the five-year mean (2009–13) with 19 species laying significantly later than the five-year mean. Breeding success (fledglings per breeding attempt) increased significantly for 14 species, with none showing a decrease.Nearly 600 permits/licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981), were prepared/issued in 2014, a small increase from 2013.The use of special methods was authorised for 398 marking projects and 47 trapping projects in 2014, 12% fewer than in 2013. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This is the 77th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2013. In recent years the schemes have focused on the collection of demographic data as part of our Integrated Population Monitoring programme. We expanded (from 10 to 17) the number of species for which we were able to construct integrated models and identified differences in the relative contributions of recruitment and adult survival to population change between increasing and decreasing species. Recruitment of young into the breeding population can be difficult to estimate. We investigated the use of proportions of birds in their second calendar year, or older, caught in the early summer using Blackbird Turdus merula as a model. Results showed that recruitment was a more important determinant of population change than survival. Changes in phenology are being documented widely and we carried out analyses looking at the timing of moult and reproduction in selected passerine species. Patterns in timing and duration of moult varied between resident species but were more aligned within migrant species, which also moulted faster. Temperature on spring breeding grounds accounts for more variation between years in breeding phenology than precipitation rates on the wintering grounds in 19 migrant species but neither climate variable affected clutch size. We continued to emphasise the value of targeted ringing and nest recording; increased participation in our structured ringing schemes has provided additional opportunities to improve the quality of demographic monitoring. Long-term (1984–2012) population trends derived from the Constant Effort Sites (CES) data have changed little in the past year. Three of the eight migrant species monitored by CES showed significant increases in productivity compared to the five-year average, although Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus recorded its second-lowest productivity since CES began in 1983. Breeding performance of residents was mixed, with juvenile:adult ratios for some early breeders significantly lower than during the preceding five years, but significantly higher for some late breeders; one late-breeding resident species, Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula, had its highest productivity since CES began. Data were submitted for 124 sites. The number of active RAS projects in 2013 was 154, with 22 new projects, 13 of which involved RAS target species. The total number of birds ringed in 2013 decreased slightly (952,750) compared to 2012 and comprised 424,401 first-year birds, 355,278 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 19,776 unaged birds and 153,295 nestlings. In addition, there were 241,111 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. The reduction in numbers ringed compared to 2012 was probably a result of weather events in 2013. In 2013, there were 465 colour-marking projects registered, covering a total of 110 species; 65 new projects were registered during the year. There were 21,275 recoveries of BTO-ringed birds: the highest total ever. A selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements is presented, as well as longevity records established during the year. In total, 40,384 nest records were submitted. Of these, 82% originated from England, 8% from Wales and 9% from Scotland, the remaining 1% divided between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This was a reduction on the 2012 totals and probably reflected the poor start to the breeding season caused by the exceptionally cold weather in early spring. Long-term trends in nest productivity (fledglings per breeding attempt) were significant for 44 of the 72 species monitored. Of these, thirteen trends were negative, indicating a decline in breeding success over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non-breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology. Location Great Britain (England & Scotland). Methods Within- and between-species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies. Results Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long-distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short-distance migrant species. Of the six long-distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining. Main conclusions Population declines in long-distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short-distance migrants suggest an influence of non-breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long-distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non-breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the importance of the quantitative interpretation of the movement patterns of birds from ring recoveries. It notes that interpretation is important in establishing a conservation policy for migratory birds and in understanding the effect and the spread of disease. Among the statistical methods and tools used for the analysis include the drawing of lines, dots and kernels on a map to locate sites, and a compass diagram to describe the direction of travel.

1. Millions of shorebirds migrate each year through a small number of highly productive staging areas where they often conflict with fisheries interests. Delaware Bay, USA, is a major shorebird stopover site where, in spring, many thousands of shorebirds undergo rapid mass gain by feeding on the eggs of commercially harvested horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus. 2. Environmental factors may cause deviations from the best migration schedule. We used within-year mass gain data from red knot Calidris canutus caught in Delaware Bay between 1998 and 2005 to determine the degree of flexibility individuals have to vary migration speed. 3. Mass gain by birds below 133 g was shown to comprise 15·3% fat (39 kJ g−1), the remainder being lean mass (6 kJ g−1). Above this critical level, fat comprised 83·9% of mass deposition. The rates of energy deposition (kJ d−1) were therefore fundamentally different between the two states but were among the highest ever recorded among vertebrates (5–7 × basic metabolic rate). 4. A total of 36–62% of the variation in observed rates of energy deposition between 1998 and 2002 was explained by a year factor, date and mass at initial capture and interaction terms, such that light-weight birds at the end of May had rates of mass gain or energy deposition two to three times higher than birds of similar mass in mid-May, indicating that birds were attempting to achieve a certain mass by a certain date. In 2003 and 2005, this relationship broke down as a result of lower densities of eggs. 5. Synthesis and application. The maintenance of high densities of crab eggs required for high rates of mass gain in red knot requires severe cuts in, or the complete cessation of, the crab harvest, reduced human and raptor-related disturbance as well as management of beaches to provide sufficient crab-spawning habitat. These findings are widely applicable to other systems where harvesting activities come into conflict with migrating animals and show that certain sections of the population, in this case the long-distance migrants from South America, will be impacted more than short-distance migrants whose physiology may give them access to alternative food resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]