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Climate change impacts on the structure and function of ecosystems will worsen public health issues like allergic diseases. Birch trees (Betula spp.) are important sources of aeroallergens in Central and Northern Europe. Birches are vulnerable to climate change as these trees are sensitive to increased temperatures and summer droughts. This study aims to examine the effect of climate change on airborne birch pollen concentrations in Central Europe using Bavaria in Southern Germany as a case study. Pollen data from 28 monitoring stations in Bavaria were used in this study, with time series of up 30 years long. An integrative approach was used to model airborne birch pollen concentrations taking into account drivers influencing birch tree abundance and birch pollen production and projections made according to different climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Birch tree abundance is projected to decrease in parts of Bavaria at different rates, depending on the climate scenario, particularly in current centres of the species distribution. Climate change is expected to result in initial increases in pollen load but, due to the reduction in birch trees, the amount of airborne birch pollen will decrease at lower altitudes. Conversely, higher altitude areas will experience expansions in birch tree distribution and subsequent increases in airborne birch pollen in the future. Even considering restrictions for migration rates, increases in pollen load are likely in Southwestern areas, where positive trends have already been detected during the last three decades. Integrating models for the distribution and abundance of pollen sources and the drivers that control birch pollen production allowed us to model airborne birch pollen concentrations in the future. The magnitude of changes depends on location and climate change scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The drivers affecting the Pollen Allergen Potency (PAP, amount of allergen released per pollen) are sparsely known. Betula and Poaceae airborne pollen are the two main allergenic pollen in the World. Airborne pollen and their allergens Bet v 1 and Phl p 5 were simultaneously measured from 2010 to 2015 in Davos (Switzerland) and Munich (Germany) by using volumetric traps and ChemVol cascade impactors. Daily variations in PAP were analysed in PM >10 and PM 2.5-10 air fractions and generalized additive models were created to explain which factors determine PAP, including meteorological parameters and inorganic pollutants. 87.1 ± 13.9% of Bet v 1 and 88.8 ± 15.5% of Phl p 5 was detected in the fraction PM >10 where most pollen grains were collected. Significantly higher PAP for grasses (3.5 ± 1.9 pg Phl p 5/pollen grain) were observed in Munich than in Davos (2.4 ± 1.5 pg/pollen grain, p < 0.001), but not for Betula (2.5 ± 1.6 pg Bet v 1/pollen grain in Munich and 2.3 ± 1.7 in Davos, N.S.). PAP varied between days, years and location, and increased along the pollen season for Poaceae, but remaining constant for Betula. Free allergens (allergens observed in the fraction with limited pollen, PM 2.5- 10) were recorded mostly at the beginning or at the end of the pollen season, being linked to higher humidity and rainy days. Also, PAP was higher when the airborne pollen concentrations increased rapidly after one day of low/moderate levels. Our findings show that pollen exposure explains allergen exposure only to a limited extend, and that day in the season, geographic location and some weather conditions need to be considered also to explain symptoms of allergic individuals. • 9-fold more allergens were trapped in the fraction PM >10 than in PM 2.5-10 μm. • PAP was different between the two cities studied for grasses, but not for birch. • PAP increases for grasses during the pollen season (species dependency of allergen load). • For Betula, conditions in previous days explain PAP. • Free allergens were recorded especially for days with rain or high relative humidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]