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Background: Longitudinal studies of the relationship between cognition and functioning in bipolar disorder are scarce, although cognition is thought to be a key determinant of functioning. The causal structure between cognition and psychosocial functioning in bipolar disorder is unknown., Aims: We sought to examine the direction of causality between cognitive performance and functional outcome over 2 years in a large cohort of euthymic patients with bipolar disorder., Method: The sample consisted of 272 adults diagnosed with bipolar disorder who were euthymic at baseline, 12 and 24 months. All participants were recruited via the FondaMental Advanced Centers of Expertise in Bipolar Disorders. We used a battery of tests, assessing six domains of cognition at baseline and 24 months. Residual depressive symptoms and psychosocial functioning were measured at baseline and 12 and 24 months. The possible causal structure between cognition and psychosocial functioning was investigated with cross-lagged panel models with residual depressive symptoms as a covariate., Results: The analyses support a causal model in which cognition moderately predicts and is causally primary to functional outcome 1 year later, whereas psychosocial functioning does not predict later cognitive performance. Subthreshold depressive symptoms concurrently affected functioning at each time of measure., Conclusions: Our results are compatible with an upward causal effect of cognition on functional outcome in euthymic patients with bipolar disorder. Neuropsychological assessment may help specify individual prognoses. Further studies are warranted to confirm this causal link and evaluate cognitive remediation, before or simultaneously with functional remediation, as an intervention to improve functional outcome.

Aims: Establishing the minimum clinically important difference (MCID) in functioning and cognition is essential to the interpretation of the research and clinical work conducted in bipolar disorders (BD). The present study aimed to estimate the MCID for the Functioning Assessment Short Test (FAST) and a battery of neuropsychological tests in BD., Methods: Anchor-based and distributive methods were used to estimate the MCID for the FAST and cognition using data from a large, multicentre, observational cohort of individuals with BD. The FAST and cognition were linked with the Clinical Global Impressions Scale-Severity (CGI-S) and Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) using an equipercentile method. The magnitude of the standard error measurement (s.e.m.) provided another estimate of the MCID., Results: In total, 570 participants were followed for 2 years. Cross-sectional CGI-S and GAF scores were linked to a threshold ⩽7 on the FAST for functional remission. The MCID for the FAST equalled 8- or 9-points change from baseline using the CGI-S and GAF. One s.e.m. on the FAST corresponded to 7.6-points change from baseline. Cognitive variables insufficiently correlated with anchor variables (all ρ <0.3). One s.e.m. for cognitive variables corresponded to a range of 0.45 to 0.93-s.d. change from baseline., Conclusions: These findings support the value of the estimated MCID for the FAST and cognition and may be a useful tool to evaluate cognitive and functional remediation effects and improve patient functional outcomes in BD. The CGI-S and GAF were inappropriate anchors for cognition. Further studies may use performance-based measures of functioning instead.