Search

This paper conducts an integrated assessment of climate change impacts and climate mitigation on agricultural commodity markets and food availability in low- and middle-income countries. The analysis uses the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM to generate scenarios to 2080. The findings show that climate change effects on the agricultural sector will increase progressively over the century. By 2030, the impact of climate change on food consumption is moderate but already twice as large in a world with high inequalities than in a more equal world. In the long run, impacts could be much stronger, with global average calorie losses of 6 percent by 2050 and 14 percent by 2080. A mitigation policy to stabilize climate below 2°C uniformly applied to all regions as a carbon tax would also result in a 6 percent reduction in food availability by 2050 and 12 percent reduction by 2080 compared to the reference scenario. To avoid more severe impacts of climate change mitigation on development than climate change itself, revenue from carbon pricing policies will need to be redistributed appropriately. Overall, the projected effects of climate change and mitigation on agricultural markets raise important issues for food security in the long run, but remain more limited in the medium term horizon of 2030. Thus, there are opportunities for low- and middle-income countries to pursue immediate development needs and thus prepare for later periods when adaptation needs and mitigation efforts will become the greatest.

Nearly half the world's population and about 81 percent of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) households rely on wood-based biomass energy (fuel wood and charcoal) for cooking. This degree of reliance is far greater than in any other region. While the use of biomass fuels in China, India and much of the developing world has peaked or will do so in the near future, SSA's consumption will either remain at very high levels or even grow over the next few decades. Population growth, coupled with strong urbanization dynamics and relative price changes of alternative fuels, offset the important achievements made over the past decade by significant investments in energy access, rural and urban electrification, off-grid energy developments, and the promotion of alternative energy sources. With increasing economic development, the demand for energy is increasing as well and consumers depend on a broader portfolio of energy sources to satisfy growing energy needs. While electricity and other energy sources are needed to satisfy additional energy needs emerging with economic development, a vast majority of Sub-Saharan African consumers continue to use wood based biomass energy for cooking. Especially electricity is not regarded a suitable alternative for cooking given equipment and use costs. Biomass burning in cook stoves also emits black carbon (BC) as part of visible smoke, which is particulate matter that results from incomplete combustion. Climate science now views BC as the second or third largest warming agent after carbon dioxide, alongside methane. In the case of biomass cooking, the warming effects of BC and the cooling effects of organic carbon that is also emitted during the burning appear to be closely balanced. Given the present uncertainty about the net impact, additional research is currently underway. Black carbon has also an impact at the regional level: it accelerates melting of ice and snow, and contributes to regional pollution which can alter climatic conditions and precipitation patterns over a wide area. This paper advocates that any policy reform should entail a combination of clear rules, transparent enforcement, strong incentives and awareness-creation/capacity development. Key stakeholders and the general public need guidance by way of information campaigns, training, and demonstration projects to ensure that awareness-deficits or false perceptions do not curtail policy implementation. The bureaucratic and administrative barriers e.g. overcomplicated forest management planning requirements, complex fiscal systems and land tenure procedures may inhibit development and thus warrant critical reflection. The regulatory framework needs to integrate externalities in order to promote adequate pricing of charcoal, and thus enhance regional economies.

This internal background paper has been prepared to help inform the 2010 environment strategy with respect to a proposed way forward on use of country systems. The World Bank Group environment strategy is built on three pillars: leveraging natural resources for growth and poverty reduction; managing the environmental risks to growth and development; and transforming growth paths. As part of its exploration of these three pillars, the strategy considers the question of environmental co-benefits of climate change actions. In particular, it poses the question of potential trade-offs between actions to address climate change and other local and regional environmental priorities, and considers how to maximize co-benefits arising from climate action. The primary objective of this background paper is to assess the potential for climate change mitigation and adaptation actions to provide environmental co-benefits, particularly in the quality of environmental media, flow of ecosystem services, and maintenance of biodiversity. To accomplish this, the paper is organized in five sections: section one gives provision of an organizing framework to identify and classify potential co-benefits; section two gives summary of the external literature on co-benefits; section three gives review of examples from the World Bank portfolio; section four presents initial thoughts on creation of enabling conditions for co-benefit provision; and section five gives review of implications for the environment strategy.