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International efforts to assess the status of marine ecosystems have been hampered by insufficient observations of food web interactions across many species, their various life stages, and geographic ranges. Hence, we collated data from multiple databases of fish stomach contents from samples taken across the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans containing 944,129 stomach samples from larvae to adults, with 14,196 unique interactions between 227 predator species and 2158 prey taxa. We use these data to develop a data-driven, reproducible approach to classifying broad functional feeding guilds and then apply these to fish survey data from the Northeast Atlantic shelf seas to reveal spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem structure and functioning. In doing so, we construct predator-prey body size scaling models to predict the biomass of prey functional groups, e.g., zooplankton, benthos, and fish, for different predator species. These predictions provide empirical estimates of species- and size-specific feeding traits of fish, such as predator-prey mass ratios, individual prey mass, and the biomass contribution of different prey to predator diets. The functional groupings and feeding traits provided here help to further resolve our understanding of interactions within marine food webs and support the use of trait-based indicators in biodiversity assessments. The data used and predictions generated in this study are published on the Cefas Data Hub at: https://doi.org/10.14466/CefasDataHub.149 (Thompson et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Larger and older fish contribute disproportionately to spawning and play an important role in the replenishment of exploited stocks. Fishing often removes specific size‐ and age‐classes, with direct impacts on stock productivity and population resilience. Despite this, fisheries advice is commonly based on estimates of spawning stock biomass (SSB) and fishing mortality (F) and makes little reference to the importance of size and/or age structure. Consequently, there is a need for indicators of size and/or age structure to better inform fisheries management and help assess global sustainability goals. Here, we introduce a new age‐based indicator ABIMSY that monitors age structure relative to the equilibrium age structure at FMSY. We apply this new indicator to 72 commercially important stocks in the Northeast Atlantic, covering 26 species, which collectively contributed 86% of all commercial catches in the region in 2019. We estimate that 62% (45 stocks) currently have proportionally fewer older fish relative to FMSY conditions, whereas 38% (27 stocks) have proportionally more older fish; we also note patterns with respect to geographic area and taxonomic family. Simulation testing demonstrated that ABIMSY is responsive to overfishing and generally tracks (with high sensitivity and specificity) a common measure of stock depletion, SSB relative to BMSY. Throughout, we show that ABIMSY provides information on the age structure of exploited stocks that is complementary to conventional reference points for SSB and F. Further, the framework used to estimate ABIMSY make it well placed for integration into current advisory frameworks on fisheries management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Different ecosystem models often provide contrasting predictions (model uncertainty), which is perceived to be a major challenge impeding their use to support ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). The focus of this manuscript is to examine the extent of model disagreements which could impact management advice for EBFM in the central Baltic Sea. We compare how much three models (EwE, Gadget and a multispecies stock production model) differ in 1) their estimates of fishing mortality rates (Fs) satisfying alternative hypothetical management scenario objectives and 2) the outcomes of those scenarios in terms of performance indicators (spawning stock biomasses, catches, profits). Uncertainty in future environmental conditions affecting fish was taken into account by considering two seal population growth scenarios and two nutrient load scenarios. Differences in the development of the stocks, yields and profits exist among the models but the general patterns are also sufficiently similar to appear promising in the context of strategic fishery advice. Thus, we suggest that disagreements among the ecosystem models will not impede their use for providing strategic advice on how to reach management objectives that go beyond the traditional maximum yield targets and for informing on the potential consequences of pursuing such objectives. This is especially true for scenarios aiming at exploiting forage fish sprat and herring, for which the agreement was the largest among our models. However, the quantitative response to altering fishing pressure differed among models. This was due to the diverse environmental covariates and the different number of trophic relationships and their functional forms considered in the models. This suggests that ecosystem models can be used to provide quantitative advice only after more targeted research is conducted to gain a deeper understanding into the relationship between trophic links and fish population dynamics in the Baltic Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem-mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010-2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long-term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., Fmsy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass ( SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels ( Fhigh), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long-term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past century, advances in technology and historical events such as climate change have resulted in significant changes in the exploitation pattern, population sizes and the potential yield of fish stocks. These variations provide contrast in the data that improves our knowledge on population dynamics and our ability to develop management strategies for long-term sustainable exploitation. In this study, we use a standardized scientific trawl survey to obtain a historical time series (1901–2007) of relative abundance, recruitment and size structure for plaice in the Kattegat–Skagerrak. Our work extends the available time series by more than 80 years so that the evaluation of trends is more informative than is possible from the current assessment. We show that the current adult biomass is approximately 40% of the maximum observed at the beginning of the century and during the 1960s. The average maximum individual length has been reduced by 10 cm over the studied time period. An analysis of trends in mean length indicates that fishing mortality was variable during the first half of the century and has increased steadily over the past 20 years. Recruitment has been the highest on record during recent years, suggesting that the alleged link between coastal environmental degradation and juvenile survival is of low importance. The overall findings of our work will provide managers with a historical perspective on the population dynamics of the stock, which will support the long-term management of plaice in the Kattegat–Skagerrak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]