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Abstract Background Motivated by the size and availability of cell line drug sensitivity data, researchers have been developing machine learning (ML) models for predicting drug response to advance cancer treatment. As drug sensitivity studies continue generating drug response data, a common question is whether the generalization performance of existing prediction models can be further improved with more training data. Methods We utilize empirical learning curves for evaluating and comparing the data scaling properties of two neural networks (NNs) and two gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) models trained on four cell line drug screening datasets. The learning curves are accurately fitted to a power law model, providing a framework for assessing the data scaling behavior of these models. Results The curves demonstrate that no single model dominates in terms of prediction performance across all datasets and training sizes, thus suggesting that the actual shape of these curves depends on the unique pair of an ML model and a dataset. The multi-input NN (mNN), in which gene expressions of cancer cells and molecular drug descriptors are input into separate subnetworks, outperforms a single-input NN (sNN), where the cell and drug features are concatenated for the input layer. In contrast, a GBDT with hyperparameter tuning exhibits superior performance as compared with both NNs at the lower range of training set sizes for two of the tested datasets, whereas the mNN consistently performs better at the higher range of training sizes. Moreover, the trajectory of the curves suggests that increasing the sample size is expected to further improve prediction scores of both NNs. These observations demonstrate the benefit of using learning curves to evaluate prediction models, providing a broader perspective on the overall data scaling characteristics. Conclusions A fitted power law learning curve provides a forward-looking metric for analyzing prediction performance and can serve as a co-design tool to guide experimental biologists and computational scientists in the design of future experiments in prospective research studies.

Abstract Background The National Cancer Institute drug pair screening effort against 60 well-characterized human tumor cell lines (NCI-60) presents an unprecedented resource for modeling combinational drug activity. Results We present a computational model for predicting cell line response to a subset of drug pairs in the NCI-ALMANAC database. Based on residual neural networks for encoding features as well as predicting tumor growth, our model explains 94% of the response variance. While our best result is achieved with a combination of molecular feature types (gene expression, microRNA and proteome), we show that most of the predictive power comes from drug descriptors. To further demonstrate value in detecting anticancer therapy, we rank the drug pairs for each cell line based on model predicted combination effect and recover 80% of the top pairs with enhanced activity. Conclusions We present promising results in applying deep learning to predicting combinational drug response. Our feature analysis indicates screening data involving more cell lines are needed for the models to make better use of molecular features.