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Predicting the combined effects of predators on shared prey has long been a focus of community ecology, yet quantitative predictions often fail. Failure to account for nonlinearity is one reason for this. Moreover, prey depletion in multiple predator effects (MPE) studies generates biased predictions in applications of common experimental and quantitative frameworks. Here, we explore additional sources of bias stemming from nonlinearities in prey predation risk. We show that in order to avoid bias, predictions about the combined effects of independent predators must account for nonlinear size-dependent risk for prey as well as changes in prey risk driven by nonlinear predator functional responses and depletion. Historical failure to account for biases introduced by well-known nonlinear processes that affect predation risk suggest that we may need to reevaluate the general conclusions that have been drawn about the ubiquity of emergent MPEs over the past three decades.

Organisms are adept at altering behaviors to balance the tradeoff between foraging and predation risk in spatially and temporally shifting predator environments. In order to optimize this tradeoff, prey need to be able to display an appropriate response based on degree of predation risk. To be most beneficial in the earliest life stages in which many prey are vulnerable to predation, innate anti-predator responses should scale to match the risk imposed by predators until learned anti-predator responses can occur. We conducted an experiment that examined whether tadpoles with no previous exposure to predators (i.e., predator-naive) exhibit innate antipredator behavioral responses (e.g., via refuge use and spatial avoidance) that match the actual risk posed by each predator. Using 7 treatments (6 free-roaming, lethal predators plus no-predator control), we determined the predation rates of each predator on Lithobates sphenocephalus tadpoles. We recorded behavioral observations on an additional 7 nonlethal treatments (6 caged predators plus no-predator control). Tadpoles exhibited innate responses to fish predators, but not non-fish predators, even though two non-fish predators (newt and crayfish) consumed the most tadpoles. Due to a mismatch between innate response and predator consumption, tadpoles may be vulnerable to greater rates of predation at the earliest life stages before learning can occur. Thus, naïve tadpoles in nature may be at a high risk to predation in the presence of a novel predator until learned anti-predator responses provide additional defenses to the surviving tadpoles.