Search

Climate warming is driving an advance of leaf unfolding date in temperate deciduous forests, promoting longer growing seasons and higher carbon gains. However, an earlier leaf phenology also increases the risk of late frost defoliation (LFD) events. Compiling the spatiotemporal patterns of defoliations caused by spring frost events is critical to unveil whether the balance between the current advance in leaf unfolding dates and the frequency of LFD occurrence is changing and represents a threaten for the future viability and persistence of deciduous forests. We combined satellite imagery with machine learning techniques to reconstruct the spatiotemporal patterns of LFD events for the 2003-2018 period in the Iberian range of European beech (Fagus sylvatica), at the drier distribution edge of the species. We used MODIS Vegetation Index Products to generate a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series for each 250 × 250 m pixel in a total area of 1,013 km2 (16,218 pixels). A semi-supervised approach was used to train a machine learning model, in which a binary classifier called Support Vector Machine with Global Alignment Kernel was used to differentiate between late frost and non-late frost pixels. We verified the obtained estimates with photointerpretation and existing beech tree-ring chronologies to iteratively improve the model. Then, we used the model output to identify topographical and climatic factors that determined the spatial incidence of LFD. During the study period, LFD was a low recurrence phenomenon that occurred every 15.2 yr on average and showed high spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Most LFD events were condensed in 5 yr and clustered in western forests (86.5% in one-fifth of the pixels) located at high elevation with lower than average precipitation. Elevation and longitude were the major LFD risk factors, followed by annual precipitation. The synergistic effects of increasing drought intensity and rising temperature combined with more frequent late frost events may determine the future performance and distribution of beech forests. This interaction might be critical at the beech drier range edge, where the concentration of LFD at high elevations could constrain beech altitudinal shifts and/or favor species with higher resistance to late frosts.

Plants in Mediterranean mountains are particularly vulnerable to climatic change. In these environments, low temperature is combined with water shortage during summer, and as a result, the positive effect of global warming theoretically expanding the growing season length may be counterbalanced by rising drought stress. These circumstances may be exacerbated in the rear edge of species distribution, where warmer conditions occur. Here, we examined the climate-growth relationships of Juniperus sabina, a major prostrate shrub above the treeline in Mediterranean mountains, to investigate climate sensitivity and long-term signals stability in four rear-edge populations from southern Spain. We demonstrate that, over recent decades, local climatic conditions have modulated the response of J. sabina secondary growth to the ongoing climate change. We observed a negative effect of winter-spring moisture on secondary growth that suggests a limitation for earlier growth activity at higher elevation, potentially hindering the ability of J. sabina to compensate forthcoming increases in summer drought. At the driest site, we also detected a positive effect of October precipitation, suggesting a second growth pulse by early autumn. Our results provide an example of how local climatic conditions may limit plastic responses of secondary growth to climatic variability. The implications of growth limitation in J. sabina exceed the species-scale level, since these prostrate shrubs play a critical role as nurse plants and local biodiversity foci in Mediterranean mountains.

Tetraclinis articulata is a xerothermic Mediterranean conifer native from NW Africa that grows under semiarid conditions in the Atlas Mountains. This species is particularly well adapted to water scarcity and forms xeric woodlands subjected to recurring drought, aridification and overexploitation. Wood of T. articulata has been considered of limited dendrochronological value due to abundant anatomical anomalies in their growth rings. We studied tree-ring growth and tree-ring features to check its dendrochronological potential and evaluate their climatic signals and drought legacy effects at two semiarid sites with contrasting elevation in Morocco. Tree-ring boundaries were properly identified on wood cores from 60 to 68% of the sampled trees. Intra-annual wood density fluctuations (IADF), microrings, missing rings and rings with undefined limits were most abundant at the low-elevation coastal site than at the mountain site. Microring and missing ring abundance was inversely related to tree-ring growth, independent of cambial age, and mostly dependent on drought occurrence. IADF frequency was independent of tree-ring growth but inversely related to cambial age. A complex response of IADF formation to cool March to June conditions was found at the low-elevation coastal site, while IADF formation in the mountain site was related to May water availability. Undefined ring limits were observed only at the low-elevation site, showing positive relationships with elevated maximum temperatures in previous winter. Previous winter rainfall favored radial growth, but a significant legacy effect of water availability was evident up to three years prior to growth. Tree-ring growth was mostly related to water availability 33 and 26 months prior to growth at low-elevation and mountain sites, respectively. The obtained results reveal a very plastic cambial activity and a strong ability of T. articulata to withstand drought even for long periods.

Oceanic islands ecosystems are among the most endangered in the world, as the effects of ongoing climate change may potentially combine with other pre-existing drivers of plant population decline. In the Canary Islands, nitrogen-fixing Teide broom (Spartocytisus supranubius) is a keystone species in the Teide National Park high mountain ecosystem. However, recruitment failure due to introduced herbivores and dieback episodes are decimating its populations. We explored the role of climate as a potential driver of Teide broom mortality. We analyzed annual rings of Teide broom to reconstruct the impact of climate on secondary growth, intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) and mortality, and to explore the potential for growth rates and levels of resilience to act as indicators of mortality risk. We found that higher precipitation from October to February improved Teide broom secondary growth, whereas iWUE increased with high July–August temperatures. Extreme drought events in 2001 and 2012 strongly reduced secondary growth and resulted in subsequent plant death. Individuals that subsequently died had lower growth rates, poorer capacity for growth recovery after drought events and marginally higher iWUE than those which survived. More frequent recurrence of extreme drought events in the future would increase the frequency of dieback episodes, and the combination of a decline in mature individuals and lower recruitment rates due to exotic herbivore pressure would mean an uncertain future for the Teide broom. Our results indicate how global change may impact keystone species in protected areas and highlight the need for urgent implementation of proactive conservation policies.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme climate events, causing profound impacts on forest function and composition. Late frost defoliation (LFD) events, the loss of photosynthetic tissues due to low temperatures at the start of the growing season, might become more recurrent under future climate scenarios. Therefore, the detection of changes in late-frost risk in response to global change emerges as a high-priority research topic. Here, we used a tree-ring network from southern European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests comprising Spain, Italy and the Austrian Alps, to assess the incidence of LFD events in the last seven decades. We fitted linear-mixed models of basal area increment using different LFD indicators considering warm spring temperatures and late-spring frosts as fixed factors. We reconstructed major LFD events since 1950, matching extreme values of LFD climatic indicators with sharp tree-ring growth reductions. The last LFD events were validated using remote sensing. Lastly, reconstructed LFD events were climatically and spatially characterized. Warm temperatures before the late-spring frost, defined by high values of growing-degree days, influenced beech growth negatively, particularly in the southernmost populations. The number of LFD events increased towards beech southern distribution edge. Spanish and the southernmost Italian beech forests experienced higher frequency of LFD events since the 1990s. Until then, LFD events were circumscribed to local scales, but since that decade, LFD events became widespread, largely affecting the whole beech southwestern distribution area. Our study, based on in-situ evidence, sheds light on the climatic factors driving LFD occurrence and illustrates how increased occurrence and spatial extension of late-spring frosts might constrain future southern European beech forests' growth and functionality. Observed alterations in the climate-phenology interactions in response to climate change represent a potential threat for temperate deciduous forests persistence in their drier/southern distribution edge.