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Several Arctic marine mammal species are predicted to be negatively impacted by rapid sea ice loss associated with ongoing ocean warming. However, consequences for Arctic whales remain uncertain. To investigate how Arctic whales responded to past climatic fluctuations, we analysed 206 mitochondrial genomes from beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) sampled across their circumpolar range, and four nuclear genomes, covering both the Atlantic and the Pacific Arctic region. We found four well-differentiated mitochondrial lineages, which were established before the onset of the last glacial expansion ~110 thousand years ago. Our findings suggested these lineages diverged in allopatry, reflecting isolation of populations during glacial periods when the Arctic sea-shelf was covered by multiyear sea ice. Subsequent population expansion and secondary contact between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans shaped the current geographic distribution of lineages, and may have facilitated mitochondrial introgression. Our demographic reconstructions based on both mitochondrial and nuclear genomes showed markedly lower population sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the preceding Eemian and current Holocene interglacial periods. Habitat modelling similarly revealed less suitable habitat during the LGM (glacial) than at present (interglacial). Together, our findings suggested the association between climate, population size, and available habitat in belugas. Forecasts for year 2100 showed that beluga habitat will decrease and shift northwards as oceans continue to warm, putatively leading to population declines in some beluga populations. Finally, we identified vulnerable populations which, if extirpated as a consequence of ocean warming, will lead to a substantial decline of species-wide haplotype diversity.

Setting appropriate conservation strategies in a multi-threat world is a challenging goal, especially because of natural complexity and budget limitations that prevent effective management of all ecosystems. Safeguarding the most threatened ecosystems requires accurate and integrative quantification of their vulnerability and their functioning, particularly the potential loss of species trait diversity which imperils their functioning. However, the magnitude of threats and associated biological responses both have high uncertainties. Additionally, a major difficulty is the recurrent lack of reference conditions for a fair and operational measurement of vulnerability. Here, we present a functional vulnerability framework that incorporates uncertainty and reference conditions into a generalizable tool. Through in silico simulations of disturbances, our framework allows us to quantify the vulnerability of communities to a wide range of threats. We demonstrate the relevance and operationality of our framework, and its global, scalable and quantitative comparability, through three case studies on marine fishes and mammals. We show that functional vulnerability has marked geographic and temporal patterns. We underline contrasting contributions of species richness and functional redundancy to the level of vulnerability among case studies, indicating that our integrative assessment can also identify the drivers of vulnerability in a world where uncertainty is omnipresent., Nature Communications, 13 (1), ISSN:2041-1723

Understanding a species response to past environmental changes can help forecast how they will cope with ongoing climate changes. Harbor porpoises are widely distributed in the North Atlantic and were deeply impacted by the Pleistocene changes with the split of three sub-species. Despite major impacts of fisheries on natural populations, little is known about population connectivity and dispersal, how they reacted to the Pleistocene changes and how they will evolve in the future. Here, we used phylogenetics, population genetics, and predictive habitat modelling to investigate population structure and phylogeographic history of the North Atlantic porpoises. A total of 925 porpoises were characterized at 10 microsatellite loci and one-quarter of the mitogenome (mtDNA). A highly divergent mtDNA lineage was uncovered in one porpoise off Western Greenland, suggesting that a cryptic group may occur and could belong to a recently discovered mesopelagic ecotype off Greenland. Aside from it and the southern sub-species, spatial genetic variation showed that porpoises from both sides of the North Atlantic form a continuous system belonging to the same subspecies (Phocoena phocoena phoceona). Yet, we identified important departures from random mating and restricted intergenerational dispersal forming a highly significant isolation-by-distance (IBD) at both mtDNA and nuclear markers. A ten times stronger IBD at mtDNA compared to nuclear loci supported previous evidence of female philopatry. Together with the lack of spatial trends in genetic diversity, this IBD suggests that migration-drift equilibrium has been reached, erasing any genetic signal of a leading-edge effect that accompanied the predicted recolonization of the northern habitats freed from Pleistocene ice. These results illuminate the processes shaping porpoise population structure and provide a framework for designing conservation strategies and forecasting future population evolution.

Rabosky, Daniel L. ... et al.-- 4 pages, 3 figures, supplementary information https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0273-1, Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary ‘hotspots’ for species formation5,6,7,8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation, This work was supported in part by NSF grant DEB-1256330 (D.L.R.), an NSF DDIG grant to J.C. (DEB-1601830), an Encyclopedia of Life Rubenstein Fellowship to J.C. (EOL-33066-13) and by a Fellowship from the David and Lucile Packard Foundation (D.L.R.). P.F.C. was funded by a Gaylord Donnelley Postdoctoral Environment Fellowship (Yale) and through the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies

Oscillations in the Earth’s temperature and the subsequent retreating and advancing of ice-sheets around the polar regions are thought to have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic structuring of contemporary high-latitude populations. After the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), retreating of the ice-sheets would have enabled early colonizers to rapidly occupy suitable niches to the exclusion of other conspecifics, thereby reducing genetic diversity at the leading-edge. Bottlenose dolphins (genus Tursiops) form distinct coastal and pelagic ecotypes, with finer-scale genetic structuring observed within each ecotype. We reconstruct the postglacial colonization of the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) by bottlenose dolphins using habitat modeling and phylogenetics. The AquaMaps model hindcasted suitable habitat for the LGM in the Atlantic lower latitude waters and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The time-calibrated phylogeny, constructed with 86 complete mitochondrial genomes including 30 generated for this study and created using a multispecies coalescent model, suggests that the expansion to the available coastal habitat in the NEA happened via founder events starting ~15 000 years ago (95% highest posterior density interval: 4 900–26 400). The founders of the 2 distinct coastal NEA populations comprised as few as 2 maternal lineages that originated from the pelagic population. The low effective population size and genetic diversity estimated for the shared ancestral coastal population subsequent to divergence from the pelagic source population are consistent with leading-edge expansion. These findings highlight the legacy of the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles on the genetic structuring and diversity of contemporary populations.

The IUCN (the International Union for Conservation of Nature) World Conservation Congress called for the full protection of 30% of each marine habitat globally and at least 30% of all the ocean. Thus, we quantitatively prioritized the top 30% areas for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) globally using global scale measures of biodiversity from the species to ecosystem level. The analysis used (a) Ecosystems mapped based on 20 environmental variables, (b) four Biomes (seagrass, kelp, mangrove, and shallow water coral reefs) plus seabed rugosity as a proxy for habitat, and (c) species richness within each biogeographic Realm (indicating areas of species endemicity), so as to maximise representivity of biodiversity overall. We found that the 30% prioritized areas were mainly on continental coasts, island arcs, oceanic islands, the southwest Indian Ridge, the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Coral Triangle, Caribbean Sea, and Arctic Archipelago. They generally covered 30% of the Ecosystems and over 80% of the Biomes. Although 58% of the areas were within countries Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ), only 10% were in MPAs, and

Cold is better for polar predators Generally, biodiversity is higher in the tropics than at the poles. This pattern is present across taxa as diverse as plants and insects. Marine mammals and birds buck this trend, however, with more species and more individuals occurring at the poles than at the equator. Grady et al. asked why this is (see the Perspective by Pyenson). They analyzed a comprehensive dataset of nearly 1000 species of shark, fish, reptiles, mammals, and birds. They found that predation on ectothermic (“cold-blooded”) prey is easier where waters are colder, which generates a larger resource base for large endothermic (“warm-blooded”) predators in polar regions. Science , this issue p. eaat4220 ; see also p. 338

Mitochondrial DNA has been heavily utilized in phylogeography studies for several decades. However, underlying patterns of demography and phylogeography may be misrepresented due to coalescence stochasticity, selection, variation in mutation rates and cultural hitchhiking (linkage of genetic variation to culturally-transmitted traits affecting fitness). Cultural hitchhiking has been suggested as an explanation for low genetic diversity in species with strong social structures, counteracting even high mobility, abundance and limited barriers to dispersal. One such species is the sperm whale, which shows very limited phylogeographic structure and low mtDNA diversity despite a worldwide distribution and large population. Here, we use analyses of 175 globally distributed mitogenomes and three nuclear genomes to evaluate hypotheses of a population bottleneck/expansion vs. a selective sweep due to cultural hitchhiking or selection on mtDNA as the mechanism contributing to low worldwide mitochondrial diversity in sperm whales. In contrast to mtDNA control region (CR) data, mitogenome haplotypes are largely ocean-specific, with only one of 80 shared between the Atlantic and Pacific. Demographic analyses of nuclear genomes suggest low mtDNA diversity is consistent with a global reduction in population size that ended approximately 125,000 years ago, correlated with the Eemian interglacial. Phylogeographic analysis suggests that extant sperm whales descend from maternal lineages endemic to the Pacific during the period of reduced abundance and have subsequently colonized the Atlantic several times. Results highlight the apparent impact of past climate change, and suggest selection and hitchhiking are not the sole processes responsible for low mtDNA diversity in this highly social species.

Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.

Species distribution data provide the foundation for a wide range of ecological research studies and conservation management decisions. Two major efforts to provide marine species distributions at a global scale are the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which provides expert-generated range maps that outline the complete extent of a species' distribution; and AquaMaps, which provides model-generated species distribution maps that predict areas occupied by the species. Together these databases represent 24,586 species (93.1% within AquaMaps, 16.4% within IUCN), with only 2,330 shared species. Differences in intent and methodology can result in very different predictions of species distributions, which bear important implications for scientists and decision makers who rely upon these datasets when conducting research or informing conservation policy and management actions. Comparing distributions for the small subset of species with maps in both datasets, we found that AquaMaps and IUCN range maps show strong agreement for many well-studied species, but our analysis highlights several key examples in which introduced errors drive differences in predicted species ranges. In particular, we find that IUCN maps greatly overpredict coral presence into unsuitably deep waters, and we show that some AquaMaps computer-generated default maps (only 5.7% of which have been reviewed by experts) can produce odd discontinuities at the extremes of a species' predicted range. We illustrate the scientific and management implications of these tradeoffs by repeating a global analysis of gaps in coverage of marine protected areas, and find significantly different results depending on how the two datasets are used. By highlighting tradeoffs between the two datasets, we hope to encourage increased collaboration between taxa experts and large scale species distribution modeling efforts to further improve these foundational datasets, helping to better inform science and policy recommendations around understanding, managing, and protecting marine biodiversity.

Whaling as a commercial enterprise is now defunct, not least due to the moratorium placed on it by the International Whaling Commission (IWC) almost 20 years ago. However, two distinct groups, one in favor of ‘sustainable’ whaling and one completely opposed to any killing of whales, continue to argue at the IWC and other political arenas. Almost ignored in this debate is the current growth of the whale watching industry, a logical alternative use for whale populations. Based on ecological and socio-economic criteria, the potential for whale watching is estimated for maritime countries that do not currently engage in this industry. Results suggest that whale watching could generate an additional 413 million USD (2009) in yearly revenue, supporting 5,700 jobs. Together with current global estimates, this would bring the total potential for the whale watching industry to over 2.5 billion USD in yearly revenue and about 19,000 jobs around the world. These results are discussed from an economic and conservation policy perspective, with emphasis on potential benefits and limitations.

There has been much recent discussion about the idea that large whales are potential competitors with fisheries for available marine resources. Based on this idea, often referred to as the ‘whales eat fish’ conflict, culling whales has been proposed as a way to increase resources available for human consumption and thereby ensuring global food security. However, the scientific basis for such arguments remains unclear, especially in the Caribbean waters where baleen whales generally do not feed. In this article, we (i) develop an ecosystem model describing the trophic interactions between whales, fish and fisheries in the Caribbean waters, (ii) calculate the level of overlap between cetaceans and fisheries for food resources, and (iii) simulate the removal of cetaceans from the Caribbean waters in order to quantify the potential increase in available biomass of commercially important fish. Ten groups of cetaceans are considered in the model, including baleen whales, toothed whales and small cetaceans. Our results suggest that baleen whales are not a threat to fisheries in Caribbean waters, while toothed cetaceans seem to be more impacted by fisheries than they actually impacting them. Whales target different types of food resources and consume significantly less than what is taken by fisheries. Moreover, simulated reductions in large whale abundance do not produce any appreciable increase in biomass of the commercially important fish species. In some cases, the presence of some whales actually improves fishery yield as a result of indirect predation effects.

There is global concern about the interaction between whales and fisheries, and in some countries, great whales are viewed as a threat to fisheries by potentially eating fish species that could be exploited for human consumption. We developed an ecosystem model to explore the trophic inter- actions between cetaceans and fisheries off Northwest Africa and to examine the potential impact of a reduction in the abundance of baleen whales on fishery yields. This allowed us to characterize the structure and function of the ecosystem in terms of biomass, mortalities, consumption rates, food habits, and fisheries. Faced with sparse data for our study area, we explicitly accounted for uncer- tainty in ecosystem structure, model accuracy, and input data and conducted an extensive sensitivity analysis. We tested model performance with time series of biomass and catches for important species of the system. Our results indicate that the overlap between prey species consumed by cetaceans and species targeted in fisheries is low. Furthermore, for a wide range of assumptions about whale abun- dances, diet composition, and food consumption in breeding areas, we found that whale consumption is several orders of magnitude lower than total fishery catches and 2 orders of magnitude lower than the amounts taken by other trophic groups. Finally, simulations of substantial reductions of whale populations did not influence the biomass of commercially important fish, nor any other species of the foodweb. These results suggest that fisheries yields would not benefit from the removal of whales in this area.

The lack of comprehensive sighting data sets precludes the application of standard habi- tat suitability modeling approaches to predict distributions of the majority of marine mammal species on very large scales. As an alternative, we developed an ecological niche model to map global distrib- utions of 115 cetacean and pinniped species living in the marine environment using more readily available expert knowledge about habitat usage. We started by assigning each species to broad-scale niche categories with respect to depth, sea-surface temperature, and ice edge association based on synopses of published information. Within a global information system framework and a global grid of 0.5° latitude/longitude cell dimensions, we then generated an index of the relative environmental suit- ability (RES) of each cell for a given species by relating known habitat usage to local environmental conditions. RES predictions closely matched published maximum ranges for most species, thus repre- senting useful, more objective alternatives to existing sketched distributional outlines. In addition, raster-based predictions provided detailed information about heterogeneous patterns of potentially suitable habitat for species throughout their range. We tested RES model outputs for 11 species (north- ern fur seal, harbor porpoise, sperm whale, killer whale, hourglass dolphin, fin whale, humpback whale, blue whale, Antarctic minke, and dwarf minke whales) from a broad taxonomic and geo- graphic range, using data from dedicated surveys. Observed encounter rates and species-specific pre- dicted environmental suitability were significantly and positively correlated for all but 1 species. In comparison, encounter rates were correlated with

Global climate change during the Late Pleistocene periodically encroached and then released habitat during the glacial cycles, causing range expansions and contractions in some species. These dynamics have played a major role in geographic radiations, diversification and speciation. We investigate these dynamics in the most widely distributed of marine mammals, the killer whale (Orcinus orca), using a global data set of over 450 samples. This marine top predator inhabits coastal and pelagic ecosystems ranging from the ice edge to the tropics, often exhibiting ecological, behavioural and morphological variation suggestive of local adaptation accompanied by reproductive isolation. Results suggest a rapid global radiation occurred over the last 350 000 years. Based on habitat models, we estimated there was only a 15% global contraction of core suitable habitat during the last glacial maximum, and the resources appeared to sustain a constant global effective female population size throughout the Late Pleistocene. Reconstruction of the ancestral phylogeography highlighted the high mobility of this species, identifying 22 strongly supported long-range dispersal events including interoceanic and interhemispheric movement. Despite this propensity for geographic dispersal, the increased sampling of this study uncovered very few potential examples of ancestral dispersal among ecotypes. Concordance of nuclear and mitochondrial data further confirms genetic cohesiveness, with little or no current gene flow among sympatric ecotypes. Taken as a whole, our data suggest that the glacial cycles influenced local populations in different ways, with no clear global pattern, but with secondary contact among lineages following long-range dispersal as a potential mechanism driving ecological diversification.

The climatic changes of the glacial cycles are thought to have been a major driver of population declines and species extinctions. However, studies to date have focused on terrestrial fauna and there is little understanding of how marine species responded to past climate change. Here we show that a true Arctic species, the bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus), shifted its range and tracked its core suitable habitat northwards during the rapid climate change of the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Late Pleistocene lineages survived into the Holocene and effective female population size increased rapidly, concurrent with a threefold increase in core suitable habitat. This study highlights that responses to climate change are likely to be species specific and difficult to predict. We estimate that the core suitable habitat of bowhead whales will be almost halved by the end of this century, potentially influencing future population dynamics.

Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide.

Measuring the effect of anthropogenic change on cetacean populations is hampered by our lack of understanding about population status and a lack of power in the available data to detect trends in abundance. Often long-term data from repeated surveys are lacking, and alternative approaches to trend detection must be considered. We utilised an existing database of line transect survey records to determine whether temporal trends could be detected when survey effort from around the world was combined. We extracted density estimates for 25 species and fitted generalised additive models (GAMs) to investigate whether taxonomic, spatial or methodological differences among systematic line-transect surveys affect estimates of density and whether we can identify temporal trends in the data once these factors are accounted for. The selected GAM consisted of 2 parts: an intercept term that was a complex interaction of taxonomic, spatial and methodological factors and a smooth temporal term with trends varying by family and ocean basin. We discuss the trends found and assess the suitability of published density estimates for detecting temporal trends using retrospective power analysis. In conclusion, increasing sample size through combining survey effort across a global scale does not necessarily result in sufficient power to detect trends because of the extent of variability across surveys, species and oceans. Instead, results from repeated dedicated surveys designed specifically for the species and geographical region of interest should be used to inform conservation and management. Publisher PDF

Knowledge of abundance, trends and distribution of cetacean populations is needed to inform marine conservation efforts, ecosystem models and spatial planning. We compiled a geo-spatial database of published data on cetacean abundance from dedicated visual line-transect surveys and encoded >1100 abundance estimates for 47 species from 430 surveys conducted worldwide from 1975-2005. Our subsequent analyses revealed large spatial, temporal and taxonomic variability and gaps in survey coverage. With the exception of Antarctic waters, survey coverage was biased toward the northern hemisphere, especially US and northern European waters. Overall

Quantifying the spatial distribution of taxa is an important prerequisite for the preservation of biodiversity, and can provide a baseline against which to measure the impacts of climate change. Here we analyse patterns of marine mammal species richness based on predictions of global distributional ranges for 115 species, including all extant pinnipeds and cetaceans. We used an environmental suitability model specifically designed to address the paucity of distributional data for many marine mammal species. We generated richness patterns by overlaying predicted distributions for all species; these were then validated against sightings data from dedicated long-term surveys in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, the Northeast Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. Model outputs correlated well with empirically observed patterns of biodiversity in all three survey regions. Marine mammal richness was predicted to be highest in temperate waters of both hemispheres with distinct hotspots around New Zealand, Japan, Baja California, the Galapagos Islands, the Southeast Pacific, and the Southern Ocean. We then applied our model to explore potential changes in biodiversity under future perturbations of environmental conditions. Forward projections of biodiversity using an intermediate Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) temperature scenario predicted that projected ocean warming and changes in sea ice cover until 2050 may have moderate effects on the spatial patterns of marine mammal richness. Increases in cetacean richness were predicted above 40° latitude in both hemispheres, while decreases in both pinniped and cetacean richness were expected at lower latitudes. Our results show how species distribution models can be applied to explore broad patterns of marine biodiversity worldwide for taxa for which limited distributional data are available.

A classical user-environment conflict could arise between the recent expansion plans of offshore wind power in European waters and the protection of the harbour porpoise Phocoena pho- coena, an important top predator and indicator species in the North Sea. There is a growing demand for predictive models of porpoise distribution to assess the extent of potential conflicts and to support conservation and management plans. Here, we used a range of oceanographic parameters and gen- eralised additive models to predict harbour porpoise density and to investigate seasonal shifts in por- poise distribution in relation to several static and dynamic predictors. Sightings were collected during dedicated line-transect aerial surveys conducted year-round between 2002 and 2005. Over the 4 yr, survey effort amounted to 38 720 km, during which 3887 harbour porpoises were sighted. Porpoises aggregated in distinct hot spots within their seasonal range, but the importance of key habitat descriptors varied between seasons. Predictors explaining most of the variance were the hydrograph- ical parameter 'residual current' and proxies for primary production and fronts (chlorophyll and nutri- ents) as well as the interaction 'distance to coast/water depth'. Porpoises preferred areas with stronger currents and concentrated in areas where fronts are likely. Internal cross-validation indi- cated that all models were highly robust. In addition, we successfully externally validated our sum- mer model using an independent data set, which allowed us to extrapolate our predictions to a more regional scale. Our models improve the understanding of determinants of harbour porpoise habitat in the North Sea as a whole and inform management frameworks to determine safe limits of anthro- pogenic impacts.

36 p. The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hot spot. Here we combined an extensive literature analysis with expert opinions to update publicly available estimates of major taxa in this marine ecosystem and to revise and update several species lists. We also assessed overall spatial and temporal patterns of species diversity and identified major changes and threats. Our results listed approximately 17,000 marine species occurring in the Mediterranean Sea. However, our estimates of marine diversity are still incomplete as yet-undescribed species will be added in the future. Diversity for microbes is substantially underestimated, and the deep-sea areas and portions of the southern and eastern region are still poorly known. In addition, the invasion of alien species is a crucial factor that will continue to change the biodiversity of the Mediterranean, mainly in its eastern basin that can spread rapidly northwards and westwards due to the warming of the Mediterranean Sea. Spatial patterns showed a general decrease in biodiversity from northwestern to southeastern regions following a gradient of production, with some exceptions and caution due to gaps in our knowledge of the biota along the southern and eastern rims. Biodiversity was also generally higher in coastal areas and continental shelves, and decreases with depth. Temporal trends indicated that overexploitation and habitat loss have been the main human drivers of historical changes in biodiversity. At present, habitat loss and degradation, followed by fishing impacts, pollution, climate change, eutrophication, and the establishment of alien species are the most important threats and affect the greatest number of taxonomic groups. All these impacts are expected to grow in importance in the future, especially climate change and habitat degradation. The spatial identification of hot spots highlighted the ecological importance of most of the western Mediterranean shelves (and in particular, the Strait of Gibraltar and the adjacent Alboran Sea), western African coast, the Adriatic, and the Aegean Sea, which show high concentrations of endangered, threatened, or vulnerable species. The Levantine Basin, severely impacted by the invasion of species, is endangered as well. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support given by the European Census of Marine Life, the Total Foundation and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. MC was supported financially by the European Commission Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship through the International Outgoing Fellowships (Call FP7-PEOPLE-2007-4-1-IOF) for the ECOFUN project and by Dalhousie University (Halifax, Canada). EB acknowledges financial support from GRACCIE project C5D2007-00067 funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation. BG thanks the support of SESAME funded by the European Commission's Sixth Framework Program on Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems. JISS acknowledges ECOLIFE (CGL2008-05407-C03-03) funds of the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain. The present paper is a contribution of JG, DM and XT to the projects 2009SRG665 and 2009SGR484 of the “Generalitat de Catalunya”, and of DM and XT to project CTM2007-66635 funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation of Spain. Research by C. N. Bianchi on Mediterranean Sea biodiversity is partly supported by the project “The impacts of biological invasions and climate change on the biodiversity of the Mediterranean Sea” (Italy-Israel co-operation) funded by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to published, or preparation of the manuscript.