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The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

Coxiella burnetii is the bacterium responsible for Q fever, a worldwide zoonosis. Ruminants, especially cattle, are recognized as the most important source of human infections. Although a great heterogeneity between shedder cows has been described, no previous studies have determined which features such as shedding route and duration or the quantity of bacteria shed have the strongest impact on the environmental contamination and thus on the zoonotic risk. Our objective was to identify key parameters whose variation highly influences C. burnetii spread within a dairy cattle herd, especially those related to the heterogeneity of shedding. To compare the impact of epidemiological parameters on different dynamical aspects of C. burnetii infection, we performed a sensitivity analysis on an original stochastic model describing the bacterium spread and representing the individual variability of the shedding duration, routes and intensity as well as herd demography. This sensitivity analysis consisted of a principal component analysis followed by an ANOVA. Our findings show that the most influential parameters are the probability distribution governing the levels of shedding, especially in vaginal mucus and faeces, the characteristics of the bacterium in the environment (i.e. its survival and the fraction of bacteria shed reaching the environment), and some physiological parameters related to the intermittency of shedding (transition probability from a non-shedding infected state to a shedding state) or to the transition from one type of shedder to another one (transition probability from a seronegative shedding state to a seropositive shedding state). Our study is crucial for the understanding of the dynamics of C. burnetii infection and optimization of control measures. Indeed, as control measures should impact the parameters influencing the bacterium spread most, our model can now be used to assess the effectiveness of different control strategies of Q fever within dairy cattle herds.

To gain more insight into the within flock transmission of Histomonas meleagridis, the shedding of parasites was quantified by a newly developed real-time quantitative (q)PCR and the basic reproduction number (R0) and the mean number of secondary infections per infectious bird per day in a susceptible population (β) of H. meleagridis in the absence of heterakis were assessed. Forty turkeys were divided into two groups of 10 and 30 birds at 14 days of age. Birds of the first group were inoculated with 200,000 histomonads each, the second group served as a susceptible contact group. Cloacal swabs were taken at -1, 1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 14, 18 and 21 days post inoculation (p.i.) to assess the shedding of the parasite by the qPCR (detection limit 330 histomonads/ml droppings). The experiment ended at 28 days p.i. Mortality was 100% in the inoculated birds and started at day 12 p.i., while in the contacts, it was 83% and started at 16 days p.i. Shedding started 1 day after the inoculation in both groups. The mean shedding levels (and 95% CI) expressed as parasite equivalents per gram cloacal content on a log10 scale in the inoculated, contact birds that died and contact birds alive were 2.0 (1.6-2.4), 1.6 (1.4-1.9) and 1.2 (0.5-2.0), respectively. Birds that died shed histomonas more often and were infectious for 13.4 days; in contrast, those that recovered were infectious for 5.7 days. R0 was estimated to be 8.4 and β 0.70. Simulations made with the parameters obtained were in agreement with the experimental results, confirming their validity.

Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae is a major cause of respiratory disease in pigs. Many farms are endemically infected without apparent disease, but occasionally severe outbreaks of pleuropneumonia occur. To prevent and control these outbreaks without antibiotics, the underlying mechanisms of these outbreaks need to be understood. Outbreaks are probably initiated by a trigger (common risk factor) changing the host-pathogen interaction, but it is unclear whether this trigger causes all cases directly (trigger mechanism), or whether the first case starts a transmission chain inducing disease in the infected contacts (transmission mechanism). The aim of this study was to identify conditions under which these mechanisms could cause A. pleuropneumoniae outbreaks, and to assess means for prevention and control. Outbreaks were first characterised by data from a literature review, defining an average outbreak at 12 weeks of age, affecting 50% of animals within 4 days. Simple mathematical models describing the two mechanisms can reproduce average outbreaks, with two observations supporting the trigger mechanism: (1) disease should be transmitted 50 times faster than supported by literature if there is a transmission chain; and (2) the trigger mechanism is consistent with the absence of reported outbreaks in young pigs as they have not yet been colonised by the bacterium. In conclusion, outbreaks of A. pleuropneumoniae on endemic farms are most likely caused by a trigger inducing pneumonia in already infected pigs, but more evidence is needed to identify optimum preventive interventions.

Clinical outbreaks due to Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae occur recurrently, despite the wide-scale use of antimicrobials or vaccination. Therefore, new approaches for the prevention and control of these outbreaks are necessary. For the development of alternative measures, more insight into the transmission of the bacterium on farms is necessary. The aim of this cohort study was to quantify transmission of A. pleuropneumoniae amongst weaned piglets on farms. We investigated three possible transmission routes: (i) indirect transmission by infected piglets within the same compartment, (ii) transmission by infected pigs in adjacent pens and (iii) transmission by direct contact within pens. Additionally, we evaluated the effect of independent litter characteristics on the probability of infection. Two farms participated in our study. Serum and tonsil brush samples were collected from sows pre-farrowing. Serum was analysed for antibodies against Apx toxins and Omp. Subsequently, tonsil brush samples were collected from all piglets from these dams (N = 542) in three cohorts, 3 days before weaning and 6 weeks later. Tonsil samples were analysed by qPCR for the presence of the apxIVA gene of A. pleuropneumoniae. Before weaning, 25% of the piglets tested positive; 6 weeks later 47% tested positive. Regression and stochastic transmission models were used to assess the contribution of each of the three transmission routes and to estimate transmission rates. Transmission between piglets in adjacent pens did not differ significantly from that between non-adjacent pens. The transmission rate across pens was estimated to be 0.0058 day(-1) (95% CI: 0.0030-0.010), whereas the transmission rate within pens was ten times higher 0.059 day(-1) (95% CI: 0.048-0.072). Subsequently, the effects of parity and serological response of the dam and litter age at weaning on the probability of infection of pigs were evaluated by including these into the regression model. A higher dam ApxII antibody level was associated with a lower probability of infection of the pig after weaning; age at weaning was associated with a higher probability of infection of the pig after weaning. Finally, transmission rate estimates were used in a scenario study in which the litters within a compartment were mixed across pens at weaning instead of raising litter mates together in a pen. The results showed that the proportion of infected piglets increased to 69% if litters were mixed at weaning, indicating that farm management measures may affect spread of A. pleuropneumoniae. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal, viral disease of swine. No vaccine is available, so controlling an ASF outbreak is highly dependent on zoosanitary measures, such as stamping out infected herds and quarantining of affected areas. Information on ASF transmission parameters could allow for more efficient application of outbreak control measures. Three transmission experiments were carried out to estimate the transmission parameters of two ASF virus isolates: Malta'78 (in two doses) and Netherlands'86. Different criteria were used for onset of infectiousness of infected pigs and moment of infection of contact pigs. The transmission rate (β), estimated by a Generalized Linear Model, ranged from 0.45 to 3.63 per day. For the infectious period, a minimum as well as a maximum infectious period was determined, to account for uncertainties regarding infectiousness of persistently infected pigs. While the minimum infectious period ranged from 6 to 7 days, the average maximum infectious period ranged from approximately 20 to nearly 40 days. Estimates of the reproduction ratio (R) for the first generation of transmission ranged from 4.9 to 24.2 for the minimum infectious period and from 9.8 to 66.3 for the maximum infectious period, depending on the isolate. A first approximation of the basic reproduction ratio (R0) resulted in an estimate of 18.0 (6.90-46.9) for the Malta'78 isolate. This is the first R0 estimate of an ASFV isolate under experimental conditions. The estimates of the transmission parameters provide a quantitative insight into ASFV epidemiology and can be used for the design and evaluation of more efficient control measures.

A real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) for detection of the apxIVA gene of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae was validated using pure cultures of A. pleuropneumoniae and tonsillar and nasal swabs from experimentally inoculated Caesarean-derived/colostrum-deprived piglets and naturally infected conventional pigs. The analytical sensitivity was 5 colony forming units/reaction. In comparison with selective bacterial examination using tonsillar samples from inoculated animals, the diagnostic sensitivity of the qPCR was 0.98 and the diagnostic specificity was 1.0. The qPCR showed consistent results in repeatedly sampled conventional pigs. Tonsillar brush samples and apxIVA qPCR analysis may be useful for further epidemiological studies and monitoring for A. pleuropneumoniae.

In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (R(h)). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas R(h) reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected.

Analysis of historical data has strongly shaped our understanding of the epidemiology of pandemic influenza and informs analysis of current and future epidemics. Here, the authors analyzed previously unpublished documents from a large household survey of the "Spanish" H1N1 influenza pandemic, conducted in 1918, for the first time quantifying influenza transmissibility at the person-to-person level during that most lethal of pandemics. The authors estimated a low probability of person-to-person transmission relative to comparable estimates from seasonal influenza and other directly transmitted infections but similar to recent estimates from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The authors estimated a very low probability of asymptomatic infection, a previously unknown parameter for this pandemic, consistent with an unusually virulent virus. The authors estimated a high frequency of prior immunity that they attributed to a largely unreported influenza epidemic in the spring of 1918 (or perhaps to cross-reactive immunity). Extrapolating from this finding, the authors hypothesize that prior immunity partially protected some populations from the worst of the fall pandemic and helps explain differences in attack rates between populations. Together, these analyses demonstrate that the 1918 influenza virus, though highly virulent, was only moderately transmissible and thus in a modern context would be considered controllable.

The generation time of an infectious disease is the time between infection of a primary case and infection of a secondary case by the primary case. Its distribution plays a key role in understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases in populations, e.g. in estimating the basic reproduction number. Moreover, the generation time and incubation period distributions together characterize the effectiveness of control by isolation and quarantine. In modelling studies, a relation between the two is often not made specific, but a correlation is biologically plausible. However, it is difficult to establish such correlation, because of the unobservable nature of infection events. We have quantified a joint distribution of generation time and incubation period by a novel estimation method for household data with two susceptible individuals, consisting of time intervals between disease onsets of two measles cases. We used two such datasets, and a separate incubation period dataset. Results indicate that the mean incubation period and the generation time of measles are positively correlated, and that both lie in the range of 11-12 days, suggesting that infectiousness of measles cases increases significantly around the time of symptom onset. The correlation between times from infection to secondary transmission and to symptom onset could critically affect the predicted effectiveness of isolation and quarantine.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes have the potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), which can threaten human health and cause huge economic losses. The current knowledge on the mechanisms of mutation from LPAI to HPAI is insufficient for predicting which H5 or H7 strains will mutate into an HPAI strain, and since the molecular changes necessary for the change in virulence seemingly occur at random, the probability of mutation depends on the number of virus replicates, which is associated with the number of birds that acquire infection. We estimated the transmission dynamics of LPAI viruses in turkeys using serosurveillance data from past epidemics in Italy. We fitted the proportions of birds infected in 36 flocks into a hierarchical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and possible variations in R(0) among flocks caused by differences among farms. We also estimated the distributions of the latent and infectious periods, using experimental infection data with outbreak strains. These were then combined with the R(0) to simulate LPAI outbreaks and characterise the resulting dynamics. The estimated mean within-flock R(0) in the population of infected flocks was 5.5, indicating that an infectious bird would infect an average of more than five susceptible birds. The results also indicate that the presence of seropositive birds does not necessarily mean that the virus has already been cleared and the flock is no longer infective, so that seropositive flocks may still constitute a risk of infection for other flocks. In light of these results, the enforcement of appropriate restrictions, the culling of seropositive flocks, or pre-emptive slaughtering may be useful. The model and parameter estimates presented in this paper provide the first complete picture of LPAI dynamics in turkey flocks and could be used for designing a suitable surveillance program.

Human cases of bacterial gastro-enteritis are often caused by the consumption of eggs contaminated with Salmonella species, mainly Salmonella enterica serovar Enteriditis (Salmonella Enteritidis). To reduce human exposure, in several countries worldwide surveillance programmes are implemented to detect colonized layer flocks. The sampling schemes are based on the within-flock prevalence, and, as this changes over time, knowledge of the within-flock dynamics of Salmonella Enteritidis is required. Transmission of Salmonella Enteritidis has been quantified in pairs of layers, but the question is whether the dynamics in pairs is comparable to transmission in large groups, which are more representative for commercial layer flocks. The aim of this study was to compare results of transmission experiments between pairs and groups of laying hens. Experimental groups of either 2 or 200 hens were housed at similar densities, and 1 or 4 hens were inoculated with Salmonella Enteritidis, respectively. Excretion was monitored by regularly testing of fecal samples for the presence of Salmonella Enteritidis. Using mathematical modeling, the group experiments were simulated with transmission parameter estimates from the pairwise experiments. Transmission of the bacteria did not differ significantly between pairs or groups. This finding suggests that the transmission parameter estimates from small-scale experiments might be extrapolated to the field situation.

Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (SE) is an important source of food-related diarrhoea in humans, and table eggs are considered the primordial source of contamination of the human food chain. Using eggs collected at egg-packing stations as samples could be a convenient strategy to detect colonization of layer flocks. The aim of this study was to evaluate egg yolk anti-Salmonella antibody detection using suspension array analysis. An egg yolk panel from contact-infected and non-colonized laying hens was used for the evaluation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to define a cut-off value and to assess the overall accuracy of the assay. The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were estimated by maximum likelihood. Sensitivity was quantified on hen level and on sample level, and also quantified as a function of time since colonization. The area under the ROC curve was estimated at 0.984 (se 0.006, P0.001). Of all colonized contact-infected hens, 67.6% [95% CI: 46.8, 100] developed an antibody response, which was detectable 17.4 days [14.3, 26.9] after colonization. In total, 98% [95.4, 99.4] of the 'immunopositive' hens had test positive eggs. The overall sensitivity of the immunological test was 66.7% [45.9, 98.7] and the specificity was 98.5% [97.8, 99.1]. This study provided essential parameters for optimizing surveillance programs based on detection of antibodies, and indicates that immunology based on examination of egg yolk gives important information about the Salmonella status of the flock.

The course and clinical appearance of an Eimeria species infection in chicken flocks depend on the response of an individual bird to infection and on population-dynamics of the infection in the flock. Differences in ingested numbers of oocysts may affect oocyst load in the flock and the subsequent infectious dose for not yet infected birds. To study the link between numbers of oocysts excreted by infected birds and transmission of Eimeria acervulina, experiments were carried out with 42 pairs of broiler chickens using inoculation doses with 5, 50, 500 or 50,000 sporulated oocysts. In each pair one bird was inoculated and the other bird was contact-exposed. All contact birds became infected, which occurred on average within 34h after exposure to an inoculated bird. Although a higher inoculation dose resulted in higher oocyst excretion in inoculated and contact-infected birds, only small non-significant differences in transmission rates between groups were found.

Heterogeneity in exposure to Eimeria spp. of chickens in a flock will result in differences between individual birds in oocyst output and acquired immunity, which subsequently affects transmission of the parasite in the population. The aim of this study was to quantify effects of previous infection of broilers with Eimeria acervulina on immune responses, oocyst output and transmission. A transmission experiment was carried out with pair-wise housed broilers, that differed in infection history. This "infection history" was achieved by establishment of a primary infection by inoculation of birds with 50,000 sporulated E. acervulina oocysts at day 6 of age ("primed"); the other birds did not receive a primary infection ("naive"). The actual transmission experiment started at day 24 of age: one bird (I) was inoculated with 50,000 sporulated oocysts and was housed together with a non-inoculated contact bird (C). Oocyst excretion and parameters describing transmission, i.e. the number of infected C birds and time passed before start of excretion of C birds, were determined from day 28 to day 50 for six pairs of four different combinations of I and C birds (I-C): naive-naive, naive-primed, primed-naive and primed-primed. Immune parameters, CD4(+), CD8(+), αβTCR(+) and γδTCR(+) T cells and macrophages in duodenum, were determined in an additional 25 non-primed, non-inoculated control birds, and in the naive-naive and naive-primed groups, each group consisting of 25 pairs. Although the numbers of CD4(+) T cells and γδTCR(+) T cells increased after primary infection, none of the immunological cell types provided an indication of differences in infectivity, susceptibility or transmission between birds. Oocyst output was significantly reduced in primed I and C birds. Transmission was reduced most in the primed-primed group, but nonetheless transmission occurred in all groups. This study also showed that acquired immunity significantly reduced oocyst output after inoculation and contact-infection, but not sufficiently to prevent transmission to contact-exposed birds.

Since meat from poultry colonized with Campylobacter spp. is a major cause of bacterial gastroenteritis, human exposure should be reduced by, among other things, prevention of colonization of broiler flocks. To obtain more insight into possible sources of introduction of Campylobacter into broiler flocks, it is essential to estimate the moment that the first bird in a flock is colonized. If the rate of transmission within a flock were known, such an estimate could be determined from the change in the prevalence of colonized birds in a flock over time. The aim of this study was to determine the rate of transmission of Campylobacter using field data gathered for 5 years for Australian broiler flocks. We used unique sampling data for 42 Campylobacter jejuni -colonized flocks and estimated the transmission rate, which is defined as the number of secondary infections caused by one colonized bird per day. The estimate was 2.37 ± 0.295 infections per infectious bird per day, which implies that in our study population colonized flocks consisting of 20,000 broilers would have an increase in within-flock prevalence to 95% within 4.4 to 7.2 days after colonization of the first broiler. Using Bayesian analysis, the moment of colonization of the first bird in a flock was estimated to be from 21 days of age onward in all flocks in the study. This study provides an important quantitative estimate of the rate of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks, which could be helpful in future studies on the epidemiology of Campylobacter in the field.

BackgroundContact tracing plays an important role in the control of emerging infectious diseases, but little is known yet about its effectiveness. Here we deduce from a generic mathematical model how effectiveness of tracing relates to various aspects of time, such as the course of individual infectivity, the (variability in) time between infection and symptom-based detection, and delays in the tracing process. In addition, the possibility of iteratively tracing of yet asymptomatic infecteds is considered. With these insights we explain why contact tracing was and will be effective for control of smallpox and SARS, only partially effective for foot-and-mouth disease, and likely not effective for influenza.Methods and findingsWe investigate contact tracing in a model of an emerging epidemic that is flexible enough to use for most infections. We consider isolation of symptomatic infecteds as the basic scenario, and express effectiveness as the proportion of contacts that need to be traced for a reproduction ratio smaller than 1. We obtain general results for special cases, which are interpreted with respect to the likely success of tracing for influenza, smallpox, SARS, and foot-and-mouth disease epidemics.ConclusionsWe conclude that (1) there is no general predictive formula for the proportion to be traced as there is for the proportion to be vaccinated; (2) variability in time to detection is favourable for effective tracing; (3) tracing effectiveness need not be sensitive to the duration of the latent period and tracing delays; (4) iterative tracing primarily improves effectiveness when single-step tracing is on the brink of being effective.

Campylobacter species are frequently identified as a cause of human gastroenteritis, often from eating or mishandling contaminated poultry products. Quantitative knowledge of transmission of Campylobacter in broiler flocks is necessary, as this may help to determine the moment of introduction of Campylobacter in broiler flocks more precisely. The aim of this study was to determine the transmission rate parameter in broiler flocks. Four experiments were performed, each with four Campylobacter- inoculated chicks housed with 396 contact chicks per group. Colonization was monitored by regularly testing fecal samples for Campylobacter . A mathematical model was used to quantify the transmission rate, which was determined to be 1.04 new cases per colonized chick per day. This would imply that, for example, in a flock of 20,000 broilers, the prevalence of Campylobacter would increase from 5% to 95% within 6 days after Campylobacter introduction. The model and the estimated transmission rate parameter can be used to develop a suitable sampling scheme to determine transmission in commercial broiler flocks, to estimate whether control measures can reduce the transmission rate, or to estimate when Campylobacter was introduced into a colonized broiler flock on the basis of the time course of transmission in the flock.

Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae causes respiratory disease in pigs and despite the use of preventive measures such as vaccination and antimicrobials clinical outbreaks still occur. At weaning often many piglets are not colonised. If differences in prevalence between litters are large and if factors were known that could explain these differences, this may provide an opportunity to raise groups of A. pleuropneumoniae free piglets. To this end, a cohort study was performed on two endemically infected farrow-to-finish farms. Seventy-six of 133 sows were selected using stratified random selection by parity. Farmers complied with a strict hygiene and animal management protocol to prevent transmission between litters. Tonsil brush and serum samples taken three weeks before parturition were tested for antigen with an apxIVA qPCR and antibodies with Apx and Omp ELISAs, respectively. Three days before weaning tonsil brush samples from all piglets (n = 871) were collected and tested for antigen. Whereas all sows tested positive both in serology tests as well as qPCR, 0.41 of the litters tested fully negative and 0.73 of all piglets tested negative. The proportion of positively tested piglets in positive litters ranged from 0.08-1.0 (median= 0.36). A grouped logistic regression model with a beta binomial distribution of the probability for piglets to become infected was fitted to the data and associations with explanatory variables were explored. To test the possibility that alternatively the clustering was caused by onwards transmission among the piglets, a transmission model was fitted to the data incorporating sow-piglet and piglet-piglet transmission, but this model did not fit better. The results of this study showed that the number of colonised suckling piglets was highly clustered and mainly attributable to the variability of infectiousness of the dam, but no dam related risk factor for colonisation status of litter or piglets within litters could be identified. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The spread of an infectious agent in a population can be reduced by interfering in the infectiousness or susceptibility of individuals, and/or in their contact structure. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of prevention of direct contact between infectious and susceptible pigs on the transmission of Streptococcus suis (S. suis). In three replicate experiments, S. suis-free pigs were housed in boxes either in pairs (25 pairs) or alone (15 pigs). The distance between the boxes was ±1 m. At 7 weeks of age, one pig of each pair was inoculated intranasally with S. suis serotype 9; the other pigs were exposed to S. suis by either direct (pairs) or indirect contact (individually housed pigs). Tonsillar brush and saliva swab samples from all pigs were collected regularly for 4 weeks post inoculation to monitor colonization with S. suis. All inoculated pigs became infected, and their pen mates became colonized within 2 days. Thirteen indirectly exposed pigs became positive within 7-25 days after exposure. The rate of direct transmission Beta(dir) was estimated to be 3.58 per pig per day (95% C.I.: 2.29-5.60). The rate of indirect transmission increased in time, depending on the cumulative number of days pigs tested positive for the presence of S. suis. The estimate Beta’(ind) was 0.001 (95% C.I.: 0.0006-0.0017) new infections per pig per day for each day that an infected pig was tested positive for S. suis. We conclude that prevention of direct contact reduces the rate at which susceptible pigs become colonized. Simulation studies using these parameters showed, however, that such intervention measure would not limit S. suis serotype 9 spread in a commercial pig farm to a relevant extent, implying that spatial separation of groups of pigs within a compartment would not be effective on a farm.

A better understanding of the variation in infectivity and its relation with clinical signs may help to improve measures to control and prevent (clinical) outbreaks of diseases. Here we investigated the role of disease severity on infectivity and transmission of Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae, a bacterium causing respiratory problems in pig farms. We carried out transmission experiments with 10 pairs of caesarean-derived, colostrum-deprived pigs. In each pair, one pig was inoculated intranasally with 5 × 106 CFUs of A. pleuropneumoniae strain 1536 and housed together with a contact pig. Clinical signs were scored and the course of infection was observed by bacterial examination and qPCR analysis of tonsillar brush and nasal swab samples. In 6 out of 10 pairs transmission to contact pigs was observed, but disease scores in contact infected pigs were low compared to the score in inoculated pigs. Whereas disease score was positively associated with bacterial load in inoculated pigs and bacterial load with the transmission rate, the disease score had a negative association with transmission. These findings indicate that in pigs with equal bacterial load, those with higher clinical scores transmit A. pleuropneumoniae less efficiently. Finally, the correlation between disease score in inoculated pigs and in positive contact pigs was low. Although translation of experimental work towards farm level has limitations, our results suggest that clinical outbreaks of A. pleuropneumoniae are unlikely to be caused only by spread of the pathogen by clinically diseased pigs, but may rather be the result of development of clinical signs in already infected pigs.

Campylobacteriosis in humans is associated with handling and consumption of contaminated broiler meat. Reduction of the number of Campylobacter-colonized broiler flocks could potentially be realized by decreasing their susceptibility for colonization. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of feed supplementation with a mixture of medium chain fatty acids (C-8-C-12) on susceptibility of broilers for Campylobacter colonization, feed conversion and body weight gain. Two experiments were carried out with individually housed commercial broilers. The birds were fed with medium chain fatty acids supplemented feed (n = 227), or received feed without supplement (n = 87). The birds were inoculated with a dose of Campylobacter jejuni varying between log(10)1.19-5.47 CFU. During 14 days after inoculation, cecal or fecal samples were collected, in which the presence of C jejuni was determined by bacterial culture. Beta-binomial dose-response modeling of the colonization status at 14 days post-inoculation was performed to estimate the C. jejuni dose necessary to colonize 50% of inoculated broilers, which was estimated to be 200 times higher in broilers fed with supplemented feed (log(10)4.8 CFU) than in control broilers (log(10)2.5 CFU). Feed conversion was not affected by feed supplementation, while body weight gain was 49 g higher in broilers fed with supplemented feed. These findings indicate that susceptibility of broilers for Campylobacter colonization is decreased by supplementation with medium chain fatty acids, and that feed supplemented with this mixture may be a promising tool for the reduction of Campylobacter colonization in commercial broiler flocks.