1. Long-Term Persistence of Spike Protein Antibody and Predictive Modeling of Antibody Dynamics After Infection With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
- Author
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David Goldblatt, Co-Stars Study Team, Mark N. Harris, James Hatcher, Helen Wagstaffe, Marina Johnson, Timothy Best, Anja Saso, Arturo Torres Ortiz, Kimberly Gilmour, Judith Breuer, Elizabeth Ralph, Louis Grandjean, Annabelle Mai, Caroline Colijn, Rosie Thistlethwayte, Tanya Lam, and Matthew Buckland
- Subjects
Microbiology (medical) ,biology ,SARS-CoV-2 ,business.industry ,COVID-19 ,Antibodies, Viral ,Antibodies, Neutralizing ,Virus ,Persistence (computer science) ,Serology ,Titer ,Infectious Diseases ,Seroepidemiologic Studies ,Immunity ,Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus ,Immunology ,biology.protein ,Humans ,Medicine ,Seroprevalence ,Antibody ,business ,Survival analysis - Abstract
Background Antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been shown to neutralize the virus in vitro and prevent disease in animal challenge models on reexposure. However, the current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 humoral dynamics and longevity is conflicting. Methods The COVID-19 Staff Testing of Antibody Responses Study (Co-Stars) prospectively enrolled 3679 healthcare workers to comprehensively characterize the kinetics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S), receptor-binding domain, and nucleoprotein (N) antibodies in parallel. Participants screening seropositive had serial monthly serological testing for a maximum of 7 months with the Meso Scale Discovery Assay. Survival analysis determined the proportion of seroreversion, while 2 hierarchical gamma models predicted the upper and lower bounds of long-term antibody trajectory. Results A total of 1163 monthly samples were provided from 349 seropositive participants. At 200 days after symptoms, >95% of participants had detectable S antibodies, compared with 75% with detectable N antibodies. S antibody was predicted to remain detectable in 95% of participants until 465 days (95% confidence interval, 370–575 days) using a “continuous-decay” model and indefinitely using a “decay-to-plateau” model to account for antibody secretion by long-lived plasma cells. S-antibody titers were correlated strongly with surrogate neutralization in vitro (R2 = 0.72). N antibodies, however, decayed rapidly with a half-life of 60 days (95% confidence interval, 52–68 days). Conclusions The Co-Stars data presented here provide evidence for long-term persistence of neutralizing S antibodies. This has important implications for the duration of functional immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection. In contrast, the rapid decay of N antibodies must be considered in future seroprevalence studies and public health decision-making. This is the first study to establish a mathematical framework capable of predicting long-term humoral dynamics after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Clinical Trials Registration NCT04380896.
- Published
- 2021
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