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The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, SCOPUS: er.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Aedes albopictus is a known vector of dengue and chikungunya. Understanding the population dynamics characteristics of vector species is of pivotal importance to optimise surveillance and control activities, to estimate risk for pathogen-transmission, and thus to enhance support of public health decisions. In this paper we used a seasonal activity model to simulate the start (spring hatching) and end (autumn diapause) of the vector season. In parallel, the peak abundance of the species was assessed using both VectorNet field survey data complemented with field studies obtained from literature across the Mediterranean Basin. Our results suggest that spring hatching of eggs in the current distribution area can start at the beginning of March in southern Europe and in April in western Europe. In northern Europe, where the species is not (yet) present, spring hatching would occur from late April to late May. Aedes albopictus can remain active up to 41 weeks in southern Europe whilst the climatic conditions in northern Europe are limiting its potential activity to a maximum of 23 weeks. The peak of egg density is found during summer months from end of July until end of September. During these two months the climatic conditions for species development are optimal, which implies a higher risk for arbovirus transmission by Ae. albopictus and occurrence of epidemics.

Dicrocoelium dendriticum is a trematode that infects ruminant livestock and requires two different intermediate hosts to complete its lifecycle. Modelling the spatial distribution of this parasite can help to improve its management in higher risk regions. The aim of this research was to assess the constraints of using historical data sets when modelling the spatial distribution of helminth parasites in ruminants. A parasitological data set provided by CREMOPAR (Napoli, Italy) and covering most of Italy was used in this paper. A baseline model (Random Forest, VECMAP®) using the entire data set was first used to determine the minimal number of data points needed to build a stable model. Then, annual distribution models were computed and compared with the baseline model. The best prediction rate and statistical output were obtained for 2012 and the worst for 2016, even though the sample size of the former was significantly smaller than the latter. We discuss how this may be explained by the fact that in 2012, the samples were more evenly geographically distributed, whilst in 2016 most of the data were strongly clustered. It is concluded that the spatial distribution of the input data appears to be more important than the actual sample size when computing species distribution models. This is often a major issue when using historical data to develop spatial models. Such data sets often include sampling biases and large geographical gaps. If this bias is not corrected, the spatial distribution model outputs may display the sampling effort rather than the real species distribution.

Background Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. Methods The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen–Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. Results The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts’ extensive knowledge of the terrain. Conclusion Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Among the invasive mosquitoes registered all over the world,Aedesspecies are particularly frequent and important. As several of them are potential vectors of disease, they present significant health concerns for 21st century Europe. Five species have established in mainland Europe, with two (Aedes albopictusandAedes japonicus) becoming widespread and two (Ae. albopictusandAedes aegypti) implicated in disease transmission to humans in Europe. The routes of importation and spread are often enigmatic, the ability to adapt to local environments and climates are rapid, and the biting nuisance and vector potential are both an ecomonic and public health concern. Europeans are used to cases of dengue and chikungunya in travellers returning from the tropics, but the threat to health and tourism in mainland Europe is substantive. Coupled to that are the emerging issues in the European overseas territorities and this paper is the first to consider the impacts in the remoter outposts of Europe. If entomologists and public health authorities are to address the spread of these mosquitoes and mitigate their health risks they must first be prepared to share information to better understand their biology and ecology, and share data on their distribution and control successes. This paper focusses in greater detail on the entomological and ecological aspects of these mosquitoes to assist with the risk assessment process, bringing together a large amount of information gathered through the ECDC VBORNET project.

Fasciolosis is generally a subclinical infection of dairy cows and can cause marked economic losses. This study investigated the prevalence and spatial distribution of fasciolosis in dairy cow herds in Ireland using an in-house antibodydetection enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay applied to bulk tank milk (BTM) samples collected during the autumn of 2012. A total of 5,116 BTM samples were collected from 4,602 different herds, with 514 farmers submitting BTM samples in two consecutive months. Analysis of the BTM samples showed that 82% (n = 3,764) of the dairy herds had been exposed to Fasciola hepatica. A total of 108 variables, including averaged climatic data for the period 1981-2010 and contemporary meteorological data for the year 2012, such as soil, subsoil, land cover and habitat maps, were investigated for a possible role as predictor of fasciolosis. Using mainly climatic variables as the major predictors, a model of the predicted risk of fasciolosis was created by Random Forest modelling that had 95% sensitivity and 100% specificity. The most important predictors in descending order of importance were: average of annual total number of rain-days for the period 1981-2010, total rainfall during September, winter and autumn of 2012, average of annual total number of wet-days for the period 1981- 2010 and annual mean temperature of 2012. The findings of this study confirm the high prevalence of fasciolosis in Irish dairy herds and suggest that specific weather and environmental risk factors support a robust and precise distribution model.

Culicoides imicola is the main vector of the bluetongue virus in the Mediterranean Basin. Spatial distribution models for this species traditionally employ either climatic data or remotely sensed data, or a combination of both. Until now, however, no studies compared the accuracies of C. imicola distribution models based on climatic versus remote sensing data, even though remotely sensed datasets may offer advantages over climatic datasets with respect to spatial and temporal resolution. This study performs such an analysis for datasets over the peninsula of Calabria, Italy. Spatial distribution modelling based on climatic data using the random forests machine learning technique resulted in a percentage of correctly classified C. imicola trapping sites of nearly 88%, thereby outperforming the linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression modelling techniques. When replacing climatic data by remote sensing data, random forests modelling accuracies decreased only slightly. Assessment of the different variables’ importance showed that precipitation during late spring was the most important amongst 48 climatic variables. The dominant remotely sensed variables could be linked to climatic variables. Notwithstanding the slight decrease in predictive performance in this study, remotely sensed datasets could be preferred over climatic datasets for the modelling of C. imicola. Unlike climatic observations, remote sensing provides an equally high spatial resolution globally. Additionally, its high temporal resolution allows for investigating changes in species’ presence and changing environment.

To assess the risk of (zoonotic) disease transmission in developing countries, decision makers generally rely on distribution estimates of animals from survey records or projections of historical enumeration results. Given the high cost of large-scale surveys, the sample size is often restricted and the accuracy of estimates is therefore low, especially when spatial high-resolution is applied. This study explores possibilities of improving the accuracy of livestock distribution maps without additional samples using spatial modelling based on regression tree forest models, developed using subsets of the Uganda 2008 Livestock Census data, and several covariates. The accuracy of these spatial models as well as the accuracy of an ensemble of a spatial model and direct estimate was compared to direct estimates and " true" livestock figures based on the entire dataset. The new approach is shown to effectively increase the livestock estimate accuracy (median relative error decrease of 0.166-0.037 for total sample sizes of 80-1,600 animals, respectively). This outcome suggests that the accuracy levels obtained with direct estimates can indeed be achieved with lower sample sizes and the multimodel approach presented here, indicating a more efficient use of financial resources.

Culicoides imicola is the main biological vector in the transmission of the Bluetongue virus in the Mediterranean basin. Its geographical range is constrained by environmental characteristics, and soil moisture has been proposed as an important constraint because of its effect on C. imicola breeding habitat. The few field studies on breeding habitat of C. imicola indicate the favourability of (semi-)moist habitat that is not flooded. Data on C. imicola in Calabria revealed the presence of C. imicola at the eastern Ionian coastal area and the absence at the greater part of the western Tyrrhenian coastal area. A spatially distributed soil moisture model was applied to obtain daily soil moisture estimates for Calabria and to assess the relationship between soil moisture and the particular C. imicola distribution at the study region. The temporal soil moisture pattern was not significantly different between locations of contrasting C. imicola occurrence. The monthly average volumetric soil moisture content, however, was found to differ substantially. Soil moisture conditions of the topsoil at locations of C. imicola presence were consistently wetter. Particularly in August, at the onset of the season of high C. imicola abundance, soil moisture was significantly higher at the presence sites and sustained the larval stages of the C. imicola life cycle. This study provides evidence that soil moisture imposes an important constraint on the geographical distribution of C. imicola. Soil moisture may therefore be considered as a key environmental variable for the delineation of suitable C. imicola habitat. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) distribution data from a recent inventory of native and invading mosquito species in Belgium were compared with historical data from the period 1900-1960 that were retrieved from a revision of the Belgian Culicidae collection at the Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences. Both data sets were used to investigate trends in mosquito species richness in several regions in Belgium. The relative change in distribution area of mosquito species was particularly important for species that use waste waters and used tires as larval habitats and species that recently shifted their larval habitat to artificial larval habitats. More importantly, several of these species are known as vectors of arboviruses and Plasmodium sp. and the apparent habitat shift of some of them brought these species in proximity to humans. Similar studies comparing current mosquito richness with former distribution data retrieved from voucher specimens from collections is therefore encouraged because they can generate important information concerning health risk assessment at both regional and national scale.

Infections with parasitic helminths (nematodes and trematodes) represent a significant economic and welfare burden to the global ruminant livestock industry. The increasing prevalence of anthelmintic resistance means that current control programmes are costly and unsustainable in the long term. Recent changes in the epidemiology, seasonality and geographic distribution of helminth infections have been attributed to climate change. However, other changes in environment (e.g., land use) and in livestock farming, such as intensification and altered management practices, will also have an impact on helminth infections. Sustainable control of helminth infections in a changing world requires detailed knowledge of these interactions. In particular, there is a need to devise new, sustainable strategies for the effective control of ruminant helminthoses in the face of global change. In this paper, we consider the impact of helminth infections in grazing ruminants, taking a European perspective, and identify scientific and applied priorities to mitigate these impacts. These include the development and deployment of efficient, high- throughput diagnostic tests to support targeted intervention, modelling of geographic and seasonal trends in infection, more thorough economic data and analysis of the impact of helminth infections and greater translation and involvement of end-users in devising and disseminating best practices. Complex changes in helminth epidemiology will require innovative solutions. By developing and using new technologies and models, the use of anthelmintics can be optimised to limit the development and spread of drug resistance and to reduce the overall economic impact of helminth infections. This will be essential to the continued productivity and profitability of livestock farming in Europe and its contribution to regional and global food security. View Full-Text

In recent years the vector-borne diseases (VBD) are (re)-emerging and spreading across the world having a profound impact on human and veterinary health, ecology, socio-economics and disease management. Arguably the best-documented example of veterinary importance is the recent twofold invasion of bluetongue (BT) in Europe. Much attention has been devoted to derive presence-absence habitat distribution models and to model transmission through direct contact. Limited research has focused on the dynamic modelling of wind mediated BT spread. This paper shows the results of a stochastic predictive model used to assess the spread of bluetongue by vectors considering both wind-independent and wind-mediated movement of the vectors. The model was parameterised using epidemiological knowledge from the BTV8 epidemic in 2006/2007 and the BTV1 epidemic in 2008 in South-France. The model correctly reflects the total surface of the infected zone (overall accuracy=0.77; sensitivity=0.94; specificity=0.65) whilst slightly overestimating spatial case density. The model was used operationally in spring 2009 to predict further spread of BTV1. This allowed veterinary officers in Belgium to decide whether there was a risk of introduction of BTV1 from France into Belgium and thus, whether there was a need for vaccination. Given the far distance from the predicted infected zone to the Belgian border, it was decided not to vaccinate against BTV1 in 2009 in Belgium.

Fasciola hepatica, a trematode parasite with a worldwide distribution, is the cause of important production losses in the dairy industry. Diagnosis is hampered by the fact that the infection is mostly subclinical. To increase awareness and develop regionally adapted control methods, knowledge on the spatial distribution of economically important infection levels is needed. Previous studies modelling the spatial distribution of F. hepatica are mostly based on single cross-sectional samplings and have focussed on climatic and environmental factors, often ignoring management factors. This study investigated the associations between management, climatic and environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution of infection with F. hepatica in dairy herds in a temperate climate zone (Flanders, Belgium) over three consecutive years. A bulk-tank milk antibody ELISA was used to measure F. hepatica infection levels in a random sample of 1762 dairy herds in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2008. The infection levels were included in a Geographic Information System together with meteorological, environmental and management parameters. Logistic regression models were used to determine associations between possible risk factors and infection levels. The prevalence and spatial distribution of F. hepatica was relatively stable, with small interannual differences in prevalence and location of clusters. The logistic regression model based on both management and climatic/environmental factors included the factors: annual rainfall, mowing of pastures, proportion of grazed grass in the diet and length of grazing season as significant predictors and described the spatial distribution of F. hepatica better than the model based on climatic/environmental factors only (annual rainfall, elevation and slope, soil type), with an Area Under the Curve of the Receiver Operating Characteristic of 0.68 compared with 0.62. The results indicate that in temperate climate zones without large climatic and environmental variation, management factors affect the spatial distribution of F. hepatica, and should be included in future spatial distribution models.

The distribution, prevalence and impact of vector-borne diseases are often affected by anthropogenic environmental changes that alter the interactions between the host, the parasite and the vector. In the case of tsetse-transmitted livestock trypanosomiasis these changes are a result of the encroachment of people and their livestock into tsetse-infected wild areas. This has created a sequence of new epidemiological settings that is changing the relative importance of the domestic or sylvatic trypanosome transmission cycles and is causing concomitant changes in the impact of the disease on livestock. These changes in the dynamics of the epidemiology have an important impact on the factors that need to be considered when developing area-specific strategies for the future management of tsetse-transmitted livestock trypanosomiasis.

Tsetse-transmitted human or livestock trypanosomiasis is one of the major constraints to rural development in sub-Saharan Africa. The epidemiology of the disease is determined largely by tsetse fly density. A major factor, contributing to tsetse population density is the availability of suitable habitat. In large parts of Africa, encroachment of people and their livestock resulted in a destruction and fragmentation of such suitable habitat. To determine the effect of habitat change on tsetse density a study was initiated in a tsetse-infested zone of eastern Zambia. The study area represents a gradient of habitat change, starting from a zone with high levels of habitat destruction and ending in an area where livestock and people are almost absent. To determine the distribution and density of the fly, tsetse surveys were conducted throughout the study area in the dry and in the rainy season. Landsat ETM+ imagery covering the study area were classified into four land cover classes (munga, miombo, agriculture and settlements) and two auxiliary spectral classes (clouds and shadow) using a Gaussian Maximum Likelihood Classifier. The classes were regrouped into natural vegetation and agricultural zone. The binary images were overlaid with hexagons to obtain the spatial spectrum of spatial pattern. Hexagonal coverage was selected because of its compact and regular form. To identify scale-specific spatial patterns and associated entomological phenomena, the size of the hexagonal coverage was varied (250 and 500m). Per coverage, total class area, mean patch size, number of patches and patch size standard deviation were used as fragmentation indices. Based on the fragmentation index values, the study zone was classified using a Partitioning Around Mediods (PAM) method. The number of classes was determined using the Wilks’ lambda coefficient. To determine the impact of habitat fragmentation on tsetse abundance, the correlation between the fragmentation indices and the index of apparent density of the flies was determined and habitat changes most affecting tsetse abundance was identified. From this it followed that there is a clear relationship between habitat fragmentation and the abundance of tsetse flies. Heavily fragmented areas have lower numbers of tsetse flies, but when the fragmentation of natural vegetation decreases, the number of tsetse flies increases following a sigmoidal-like curve.

Increased transport and trade as well as climate shifts play an important role in the introduction, establishment and spread of new pathogens. Arguably, the introduction of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotype 8 in Benelux, Germany and France in 2006 is such an example. After its establishment in receptive local vector and host populations the continued spread of such a disease in a suitable environment will mainly depend on movement of infected vectors and animals. In this paper we explore how wind models can contribute to explain the spread of BTV in a temperate eco-climatic setting. Based on previous work in Greece and Bulgaria filtered wind density maps were computed using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Six hourly forward wind trajectories were computed at pressure levels of 850 hPa for each infected farm as from the recorded onset of symptoms. The trajectories were filtered to remove wind events that do not contribute to possible spread of the vector. The suitable wind events were rastered and aggregated on a weekly basis to obtain weekly wind density maps. Next to this, cumulated wind density maps were also calculated to assess the overall impact of wind dispersal of vectors. A strong positive correlation was established between wind density data and the horizontal asymmetrical spread pattern of the 2006 BTV8 epidemic. It was shown that short (31 km) distance spread had a different impact on disease spread. Computed wind densities were linked to the medium/long-distance spread whilst short range spread was mainly driven by active Culicoides flight. Whilst previous work in the Mediterranean basin showed that wind driven spread of Culicoides over sea occurred over distances of up to 700 km, this phenomenon was not observed over land. Long-distance spread over land followed a hopping pattern, i.e. with intermediary stops and establishment of local virus circulation clusters at distances of 35-85 km. Despite suitable wind densities, no long range spread was recorded over distances of 300-400 km. Factors preventing spread Eastwards to the UK and Northwards to Denmark during the 2006 epidemic are discussed. Towards the east both elevation and terrain roughness, causing air turbulences and drop down of Culicoides, were major factors restricting spread. It is concluded that the proposed approach opens new avenues for understanding the spread of vector-borne viruses in Europe. Future developments should take into consideration both physical and biological factors affecting spread.

Starting August 2006, a major epidemic of bluetongue (BT) was identified in North-West Europe, affecting The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg and the North of France. It was caused by BT virus serotype 8 (BTV-8), a serotype previously unknown to the European Union (EU). In this outbreak, the virus caused clinical disease in a few individual animals within cattle herds, whereas overt clinical disease was usually restricted to sheep. Investigations in Belgium suggested that the first clinical signs of BTV-8 appeared mid July 2006 in a cattle herd, while the first suspicion of a BT-outbreak in Belgium was reported on 17 August 2006. In the first 10 BTV-8 outbreaks in the Netherlands, the owners indicated that the first clinical signs started approximately 12-17 days before a suspicion was reported to the veterinary authorities via a veterinary practitioner. In BTV-8 affected sheep flocks, erosions of the oral mucosa, fever, salivation, facial and mandibular oedema, apathy and tiredness, mortality, oedema of the lips, lameness, and dysphagia were among the most frequent clinical signs recorded. The most prominent clinical signs in BTV-8 affected cattle herds were: crusts/lesions of the nasal mucosa, erosions of lips/crusts in or around the nostrils, erosions of the oral mucosa, salivation, fever, conjunctivitis, coronitis, muscle necrosis, and stiffness of the limbs. Crusts/lesions of nasal mucosa, conjunctivitis, hyperaemic/purple coloration and lesions of the teats, and redness/hypersensitivity of the skin were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with cattle compared to sheep. Mortality, oedema of the head and ears, coronitis, redness of the oral mucosa, erosions/ulceration of tongue mucosa, purple coloration of the tongue and tongue protrusion and dyspneu were relatively more seen on outbreak farms with sheep compared to cattle.

Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.001, eLife digest Mosquitoes spread many disease-causing viruses and parasites between people and other animals, including viral infections such as dengue and chikungunya. Both infections cause high fevers often accompanied with excruciating joint pain or other flu-like symptoms. Dengue and chikungunya have become growing public health problems over the last fifty years. Today about half of the world's population is at risk of dengue infection, while chikungunya outbreaks, which were previously limited to Africa and Asia, have recently been reported in the Caribbean, South America and Europe. The dengue and chikungunya viruses are transmitted between people by two species of mosquitoes called Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Therefore it is important to work out where these mosquito species are found around the globe to identify the areas at risk. It is also important to predict where these species could become established if they were introduced, in order to identify areas that could become at risk in the future. Kraemer et al. now provide updated predictions about the distribution of these two mosquito species around the globe. These predictions are based upon the most up-to-date data on the known locations of the species combined with information on environmental conditions across the globe. The updated maps show that these Aedes mosquitoes are now found across all continents, including North America and Europe. Aedes albopictus mosquitoes in particular are rapidly expanding their territory around the globe. Kraemer et al. used their new maps to show that, unlike in the United States, many of the areas in Europe and China that could support this mosquito species do not yet appear to have been colonized. These findings provide a map of the distribution of both species as it stands at the moment. Further work is now needed to better understand which factors are contributing to the rapid expansion of these mosquitoes' range and what might be done to control this spread. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08347.002

Anthelmintic resistance (AR) in gastrointestinal nematodes (GINs) has been reported worldwide in multiple nematode and livestock species (Kaplan and Vidyashankar 2012) and is a major constraint on production on affected farms (Sutherland and others 2010, Miller and others 2012). In the UK and Ireland, for example, AR in GINs and anthelmintic treatment failure is widespread in sheep (e.g. Bartley and others 2003, Keane and others 2014) and increasingly reported in cattle (e.g. O'Shaughnessy and others 2014). There is, therefore, a need to develop and adopt GIN control strategies that maintain the efficacy of anthelmintics and to identify risk factors for the development of AR. Environmental constraints on farm management and the survival of nematodes in refugia appear to play an important role in the development of AR. In a random survey of sheep farms in Norway, AR was found only in coastal regions (Domke and others 2012a). Papadopoulos and others (2001) observed a higher incidence of AR on isolated Greek islands, suggesting that drought hastens the development of AR. In contrast, Rinaldi and others (2014) observed high anthelmintic efficacy in sheep in southern Italy despite the Mediterranean climate. This was attributed to the low number of anthelmintic treatments (usually two per year) and the absence of anthelmintic treatments during periods of drought, when environmental constraints on the free-living stages are highest. Calvete and others (2012) identified an association between AR, distance between farms with AR, management and bioclimatic …

Mapping and modelling helminth infections in cattle and sheep in Europe through advanced geospatial research was one of the main task of GLOWORM, a three year project (2012-2014) funded under the European Commission’s (EC) seventh framework programme (FP7). Liver flukes as Fasciola hepatica and gastrointestinal nematodes, such as Haemonchus contortus were chosen for the project since these parasites constitute a major cause of lost productivity in small and large ruminants. The output of the GLOWORM project delivered guidelines for standardized and harmonized cross-sectional surveys of helminth parasites in ruminants allowing the development of updated prevalence maps and multi-scale, spatial models for the European area.

Due to the development of anthelmintic resistance, there have been calls for more sustainable nematode control practices. Two important concepts were introduced to study and promote the sustainable use of anthelmintics: targeted treatments (TT), where the whole flock/herd is treated based on knowledge of the risk, or parameters that quantify the severity of infection; and targeted selective treatments (TST), where only individual animals within the grazing group are treated. The aim of the TT and TST approaches is to effectively control nematode-induced production impacts while preserving anthelmintic efficacy by maintaining a pool of untreated parasites in refugia. Here, we provide an overview of recent studies that assess the use of TT/TST against gastrointestinal nematodes in ruminants and investigate the economic consequences, feasibility and knowledge gaps associated with TST. We conclude that TT/TST approaches are ready to be used and provide practical benefits today. However, a major shift in mentality will be required to make these approaches common practice in parasite control.

For the first time a Bayesian geostatistical version of the Moran Curve, a logarithmic form of the Ricker stock recruitment curve, is proposed that is able to give an estimate of net change in population demographic rates considering components such as fertility and density dependent and density independent mortalities. The method is applied to spatio-temporally referenced count data of tsetse flies obtained from fly-rounds. The model is a linear regression with three components: population rate of change estimated from the Moran curve, an explicit spatio-temporal covariance, and the observation error optimised within a Bayesian framework. The model was applied to the three main climate seasons of Zambia (rainy – January to April, cold-dry – May to August, and hot-dry – September to December) taking into account land surface temperature and (seasonally changing) cattle distribution. The model shows a maximum positive net change during the hot-dry season and a minimum between the rainy and cold-dry seasons. Density independent losses are correlated positively with day-time land surface temperature and negatively with night-time land surface temperature and cattle distribution. The inclusion of density dependent mortality increases considerably the goodness of fit of the model. Cross validation with an independent dataset taken from the same area resulted in a very accurate estimate of tsetse catches. In general, the overall framework provides an important tool for vector control and eradication by identifying vector population concentrations and local vector demographic rates. It can also be applied to the case of sustainable harvesting of natural populations.

African buffaloes (Syncerus caffer) are reservoir hosts of Southern African Territories (SAT) foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus strains. In South Africa, infected buffaloes are found in the FMD-infected zone comprising the Kruger National Park (KNP) and its adjoining reserves. When these buffaloes stray into livestock areas, they pose a risk of FMD transmission to livestock. We assessed 645 records of stray buffalo events (3124 animals) from the FMD infected zone during 1998-2008 for (i) their temporal distribution, (ii) group size, (iii) age and gender composition, (iv) distance from the infected zone fence and (v) outcome reported for each event. A maximum entropy model was developed to evaluate spatial predictors of stray buffalo events and assess current disease control zones. Out of all buffaloes recorded straying, 38.5% escaped from the FMD infected zone during 2000/2001, following floods that caused extensive damage to wildlife fences. Escape patterns were not apparently influenced by season. The median size of stray groups was a single animal (IQR [1-2]). Adult animals predominated, comprising 90.4% (620/686) of the animals for which age was recorded. Of the 315 events with accurate spatial information, 204 (64.8%) were recorded within 1 km from the FMD infected zone. During late winter/spring (June-October), stray buffaloes were found significantly closer to the FMD infected zone (median = 0.3 km, IQR [0.1-0.6]). Less than 13% (40/315) of stray groups reached the FMD protection zone without vaccination, posing a higher risk of spreading FMD to these more susceptible livestock. Model outputs suggest that distance from the FMD infected zone, urban areas and permanent water sources contributed almost 85% to the spatial probability of stray buffalo events. Areas with a high probability for stray buffalo events were well covered by current disease control zones, although FMD risk mitigation could be improved by expanding the vaccination zone in certain areas.

Background: The trematode parasite Fasciola hepatica causes important economic losses in ruminants worldwide. Current spatial distribution models do not provide sufficient detail to support farm-specific control strategies. A technology to reliably assess the spatial distribution of intermediate host snail habitats on farms would be a major step forward to this respect. The aim of this study was to conduct a longitudinal field survey in Flanders (Belgium) to (i) characterise suitable small water bodies (SWB) for Galba truncatula and (ii) describe the population dynamics of G. truncatula. Methods: Four F. hepatica-infected farms from two distinct agricultural regions were examined for the abundance of G. truncatula from the beginning (April 2012) until the end (November 2012) of the grazing season. Per farm, 12 to 18 SWB were selected for monthly examination, using a 10 m transect analysis. Observations on G. truncatula abundance were coupled with meteorological and (micro-) environmental factors and the within-herd prevalence of F. hepatica using simple comparison or negative binomial regression models. Results: A total of 54 examined SWB were classified as a pond, ditch, trench, furrow or moist area. G. truncatula abundance was significantly associated with SWB-type, region and total monthly precipitation, but not with monthly temperature. The clear differences in G. truncatula abundance between the 2 studied regions did not result in comparable differences in F. hepatica prevalence in the cattle. Exploration of the relationship of G. truncatula abundance with (micro)-environmental variables revealed a positive association with soil and water pH and the occurrence of Ranunculus sp. and a negative association with mowed pastures, water temperature and presence of reed-like plant species. Conclusions: Farm-level predictions of G. truncatula risk and subsequent risk for F. hepatica occurrence would require a rainfall, soil type (representing the agricultural region) and SWB layer in a geographic information system. While rainfall and soil type information is easily accessible, the recent advances in very high spatial resolution cameras carried on board of satellites, planes or drones should allow the delineation of SWBs in the future.

Information on the spatial pattern of African animal trypanosomosis forms a prerequisite for rational disease management, but few data exist for any country in the continent. The present study describes a raster or grid-based Geographic Information System for Togo, a country representative of subhumid West Africa, with data layers on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use. The paper shows how trypanosomosis prevalence and packed cell volume (PCV) map displays may be predicted from correlations between representative field data and environmental and satellite data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteosat platforms. Discriminant analytical methods were used to assess the relationship between the amount of field data used and the accuracy of the predictions obtained. The accuracy of satellite derived predictions decreases from tsetse abundance to trypanosomosis prevalence to PCV value. The predictions improve when eco-climatic and epidemiological predictors are combined. In Togo, and probably elsewhere, the patterns of trypanosomosis prevalence and PCV are much influenced by animal husbandry and other anthropogenic factors. Additional predictor variables, incorporating these influences might therefore further improve the models.

A raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. This paper describes the generation of area-wide digital tsetse distribution and abundance maps and how these accord with the local climatic and agro-ecological setting. Results include: (i) a spatial demarcation of ecologically distinct areas, producing a seasonal cluster map based on seasonal weather data and temporal series of satellite derived National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) AVHRR and METEOSAT variables: (ii) tsetse distribution maps of Glossina tachinoides Westwood, G. palpalis palpalis (Robineau-Desvoidy), G. morsitans submorsitansNewstead, G. longipalpis Wiedemann, G. medicorum Austen and G. fusca fusca (Walker); and (iii) tsetse abundance or ‘risk’ maps, corrected for within database seasonal fluctuations, for G. tachinoides and G. p. palpalis. It is concluded that grid-based sampling is the ideal method for rapid assessment of the current vector and disease situation within any country or region, and that remote sensing has an important role to play in planning such a sampling system.

In this paper we present a novel methodology applied in Spain to model spatial abundance patterns of potential vectors of disease at a medium spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km using a countrywide database with abundance data for five Culicoides species, random regression Forest modelling and a spatial dataset of ground measured and remotely sensed eco-climatic and environmental predictor variables. First the probability of occurrence was computed. In a second step a direct regression between the probability of occurrence and trap abundance was established to verify the linearity of the relationship. Finally the probability of occurrence was used in combination with the set of predictor variables to model abundance. In each case the variable importance of the predictors was used to biologically interpret results and to compare both model outputs, and model performance was assessed using four different accuracy measures. Results are shown for C. imicola, C. newsteadii, C. pulicaris group, C. punctatus and C. obsoletus group. In each case the probability of occurrence is a good predictor of abundance at the used spatial resolution of 5 x 5 km. In addition, the C. imicola and C. obsoletus group are highly driven by summer rainfall. The spatial pattern is inverse between the two species, indicating that the lower and upper thresholds are different. C. pulicaris group is mainly driven by temperature. The patterns for C. newsteadii and C. punctatus are less clear. It is concluded that the proposed methodology can be used as an input to transmission-infection-recovery (TIR) models and R0 models. The methodology will become available to the general public as part of the VECMAPTM software.

To advance our restricted knowledge on mosquito biodiversity and distribution in Belgium, a national inventory started in 2007 (MODIRISK) based on a random selection of 936 collection points in three main environmental types: urban, rural and natural areas. Additionally, 64 sites were selected because of the risk of importing a vector or pathogen in these sites. Each site was sampled once between May and October 2007 and once in 2008 using Mosquito Magnet Liberty Plus traps. Diversity in pre-defined habitat types was calculated using three indices. The association between species and environmental types was assessed using a correspondence analysis. Twenty-three mosquito species belonging to traditionally recognized genera were found, including 21 indigenous and two exotic species. Highest species diversity (Simpson 0.765) and species richness (20 species) was observed in natural areas, although urban sites scored also well (Simpson 0.476, 16 species). Four clusters could be distinguished based on the correspondence analysis. The first one is related to human modified landscapes (such as urban, rural and industrial sites). A second is composed of species not associated with a specific habitat type, including the now widely distributedAnopheles plumbeus. A third group includes species commonly found in restored natural or bird migration areas, and a fourth cluster is composed of forest species. Outcomes of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of the designed sampling scheme and support the choice of the trap type. Obtained results of this first country-wide inventory of the Culicidae in Belgium may serve as a basis for risk assessment of emerging mosquito-borne diseases.

There has been growing interest in Europe in recent years in the establishment and spread of invasive mosquitoes, notably the incursion of Aedes albopictus through the international trade in used tires and lucky bamboo, with onward spread within Europe through ground transport. More recently, five other non-European aedine mosquito species have been found in Europe, and in some cases populations have established locally and are spreading. Concerns have been raised about the involvement of these mosquito species in transmission cycles of pathogens of public health importance, and these concerns were borne out following the outbreak of chikungunya fever in Italy in 2007, and subsequent autochthonous cases of dengue fever in France and Croatia in 2010. This article reviews current understanding of all exotic (five introduced invasive and one intercepted) aedine species in Europe, highlighting the known import pathways, biotic and abiotic constraints for establishment, control strategies, and public health significance, and encourages Europe-wide surveillance for invasive mosquitoes.

The authors use a quantitative modelling framework to describe and explore the features of the biology of tsetse flies (Glossina spp.) which are important in determining the rate of transmission of the African trypanosomiases between hosts. Examples are presented of the contribution of previous research on tsetse to quantified epidemiological and epizootiological understanding, and areas of current ignorance are identified for future study. Spatial and temporal variations in risk are important (but rarely-studied) determinants of the impact of trypanosomiasis on humans, domestic animals and agricultural activities. Recent grid-based sampling surveys to Togo provide valuable data sets on tsetse, cattle and trypanosomiasis throughout the country. A combination of ground-based meterological and remotely-sensed satellite data, within linear discriminant analytical models, enables description of the observed distributions of the five species of tsetse occurring in Togo, with accuracies of between 72% (Glossina palpalis and G. tachinoides) and 98% (G. fusca). Abundance classes of the two most widespread species, G. palpalis and G. tachinoides, are described with accuracies of between 47% and 83%. This is especially remarkable given the relatively small differences between the average values of the predictor variables in areas of differing fly abundance. Similar analyses could be used to predict the occurrence and abundance of flies in other areas, which have not been surveyed to date, in order to plan tsetse control campaigns or explore development options. Finally, some recent tsetse control campaigns are briefly reviewed. The shift of emphasis from fly eradication to fly control is associated with a devolution of responsibility for control activities from central government to local areas, communities or even individuals. The future role of central governments will remain crucial, however, in determining the areas in which different control options are practised, in facilitating control by local communities and in protecting controlled areas from re-invasion by flies from other areas.

For the majority of native species, human-created habitats provide a hostile environment that prevents their colonization. However, if the conditions encountered in this novel environment are part of the fundamental niche of a particular species, these low competitive environments may allow strong population expansion of even rare and stenotopic species. If these species are potentially harmful to humans, such anthropogenic habitat alterations may impose strong risks for human health. Here, we report on a recent and severe outbreak of the viciously biting and day-active mosquito Anopheles plumbeus Stephens, 1828, that is caused by a habitat shift toward human-created habitats. Although historic data indicate that the species was previously reported to be rare in Belgium and confined to natural forest habitats, more recent data indicate a strong population expansion all over Belgium and severe nuisance at a local scale. We show that these outbreaks can be explained by a recent larval habitat shift of this species from tree-holes in forests to large manure collecting pits of abandoned and uncleaned pig stables. Further surveys of the colonization and detection of other potential larval breeding places of this mosquito in this artificial environment are of particular importance for human health because the species is known as a experimental vector of West Nile virus and a potential vector of human malaria.

Fasciola hepatica, Ostertagia ostertagi and Dictyocaulus viviparus are helminth parasites with a wide distribution and an important economic impact in cattle in temperate climates. This paper describes the spatial distribution of F. hepatica, O. ostertagi and D. viviparus in dairy herds in Flanders (Belgium). One thousand eight hundred herds were selected at random from the Flemish dairy population (n=7002), stratified on community level to obtain a sample representative for the entire study area. From each herd, a bulk milk sample collected in autumn 2006 was analysed with previously described antibody-ELISAs in order to identify herds where the parasite infection level is likely to cause production loss (F. hepatica and O. ostertagi) (defined as economic infections) or where patent infections have been present over the past grazing season (D. viviparus). The herd prevalence of economic infections with F. hepatica and O. ostertagi was 37.3% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 35.1-39.7) and 59.1% (95%CI: 56.8-61.4), respectively. The herd prevalence of D. viviparus was 19.6% (95%CI: 17.7-21.6). On 28.9% (CI 26.8-31.3) of the herds, low levels of infection were observed for all three of the helminths. The presence of clustering of (economic) infections was studied using Moran's I, whereas the location and size of the clusters were studied using the spatial scan statistic, the Local Indicator of Spatial Association and Kernel density plotting. A marked clustering in the spatial distribution of F. hepatica and a mild clustering in the spatial distribution of O. ostertagi were observed. D. viviparus infections were spread evenly over Flanders. Knowledge of locations of high risk areas can lead to increased awareness and may be the start of the development of regionally adapted control measures.

This paper tests the hypothesis that Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) species can be propagated by wind over long distances. Movement patterns of midges were inferred indirectly from patterns of the spread of bluetongue outbreaks between farms (using outbreak data from 1999-2001 for Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey) and then matched to concurrent wind patterns. The general methodology was to determine wind trajectories to and from each outbreak site based on the horizontal and vertical wind components of the European ReAnalysis-40 (ERA-40) dataset from the European centre for medium-range weather forecast (ECMWF). Forward trajectories (downwind or where the windvectors pointed to) and backward trajectories (upwind or where the wind-vectors originated from) were calculated for each outbreak for the period from one week before to one week after it had been recorded. These wind trajectories were then compared with the general outbreak patterns taking into consideration the different serotypes involved. It was found that the wind trajectories could be matched to the temporal distribution of the outbreak cases. Furthermore, the spread of the infected vector via the calculated wind trajectories was corroborated by molecular evidence. The conclusion is that the methodology presented is appropriate for quantifying the risk of spread of infected Culicoides midges by wind and that this approach could form an important component of a regional early-warning system for bluetongue.

The knowledge of the place where a disease is first introduced and from where it later spreads is a key element for the understanding of an epizootic. For a contagious disease, the main method is back tracing. For a vector-borne disease such as the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic that occurred in 2006 in North-Western Europe, the efficiency of tracing is limited because many infected animals are not showing clinical signs. In the present study, we propose to use a statistical approach, random walk, to model local spread in order to derive the Area of First Infection (AFI) and spread rate. Local spread is basically described by the random movements of infected insect vectors. Our model localised the AFI centre, origin of the infection, in the Netherlands, South of Maastricht. This location is consistent with the location of the farms where the disease was first notified in the three countries (Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) and the farm where retrospectively the earliest clinical signs were found. The derived rate of spread of 10¿15 km/week is consistent with the rates observed in other Bluetongue epizootics. In another article Mintiens (2008), the AFI definition has then been used to investigate possible ways of introduction (upstream tracing) and to study the effect of animal movements from this area (downstream tracing).

In August 2006, bluetongue (BT) was notified in The Netherlands on several animal holdings. This was the onset of a rapidly spreading BT-epidemic in north-western Europe (latitude >51 degrees N) that affected cattle and sheep holdings in The Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and Luxembourg. The outbreaks were caused by bluetongue virus (BTV) scrotype 8, which had not been identified in the European Union before. Bluetongue virus can be introduced into a free area by movement of infected ruminants, infected midges or by infected semen and embryos. In this study, information on animal movements or transfer of ruminant germ plasms (semen and embryos) into the Area of First Infection (AFI), which occurred before and during the onset of the epidemic, were investigated in order to establish the conditions for the introduction of this virus. All inbound transfers of domestic or wild ruminants, non-susceptible mammal species and ruminant germ plasms into the AFI during the high-risk period (HRP), registered by the Trade Control and Expert System (TRACES) of the EC, were obtained. Imports originating from countries with a known or suspected history of BTV-incidence of any scrotype were identified. The list of countries with a reported history of BTV incidence was obtained from the OIE Handistatus II for the period from 1996 until 2004. No ruminants were imported from a Member State (MS) with a known history of BTV-8 or from any other country with a known or suspected history of BTV incidence of any serotype. Of all non-susceptible mammal species only 233 horses were transported directly into the AFI during the HRP. No importations of semen or embryos into the AFI were registered in TRACES during the period of interest. An obvious source for the introduction of BTV-8, such as import of infected ruminants, could not be identified and the exact origin and route of the introduction of BTV-8 thus far remains unknown. However, the absence of legal import of ruminants from outside the EU into the AFI and the absence of BTV-8 in southern Europe suggest that, the introduction of the BTV-8 infection into the north-western part of Europe took place via another route. Specifically, in relation to this, the potential for Culicoides to be imported along with or independently of the import of animals, plants or other 'materials', and the effectiveness of measures to reduce such a possibility, merit further study. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V

Une étude parasitologique transversale menée sur 359 échantillons d’origine ovine de la zone périurbaine de Sokodé (région centrale du Togo) a permis le diagnostic de la coccidiose (prévalence de 33 p. 100) et des nématodes gastro-intestinaux (88 p. 100) représentés par Trichostrongylus sp., Cooperia sp., Oesophagostomum sp. et Haemonchus sp. En outre, des nématodes pulmonaires (Protostrongylus rufescens) ont été rencontrés (16 p. 100), ainsi que le cestode Monieza sp. (8 p. 100). Les trématodes ont été représentés par Paramphistomum sp. (15 p. 100), Fasciola sp. (1 p. 100) et Schistosoma sp. (un seul échantillon positif). Les trois agents principaux de la gale ont été présents (Sarcoptes sp., Psoroptes sp. et Chorioptes sp.). Les tiques ont été représentées par Amblyomma sp. et Boophilus sp. Des analyses sérologiques ont révélé que 22 p. 100 des animaux étaient positifs pour Toxoplasma gondii et que 79 p. 100 étaient positifs pour Oestrus ovis, malgré l’absence des larves (sondage de la cavité nasale). En combinant les effets sur l’hématocrite de différentes classes d’infections parasitaires de la trypanosomose, des nématodes gastro-intestinaux et de leurs infections mixtes, il a été constaté que la trypanosomose (13 p. 100) demeurait la parasitose ayant l’impact le plus important sur les paramètres de santé. Plusieurs analyses statistiques, qui ont pris en compte des facteurs environnementaux, génétiques et de gestion, ont permis d’avoir une meilleure compréhension des interactions hôte-environnement.

A raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomiasis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. The area-wide sampling of tsetse fly, aided by satellite imagery, is the subject of two separate papers. This paper follows on a first paper, published in this journal, describing the generation of digital tsetse distribution and abundance maps and how these accord with the local climatic and agro-ecological setting. Such maps when combined with data on the disease, the hosts and their owners, should contribute to the knowledge of the spatial epidemiology of trypanosomiasis and assist planning of integrated control operations. Here we address the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. Different discriminant analysis models have been applied using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Meteosat platforms. The results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction of the tsetse distribution and abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen and/or substitute one another. The analysis shows how the strategic incorporation of satellite imagery may minimize field collection of data. Field surveys may be modified and conducted in two stages, first concentrating on the expected fly distribution limits and thereafter on fly abundance. The study also shows that when applying satellite data, care should be taken in selecting the optimal number of predictor variables because this number varies with the amount of training data for predicting abundance and on the homogeneity of the distribution limits for predicting fly presence. Finally, it is suggested that in addition to the use of contemporary training data and predictor variables, training and predicted data sets should refer to the same eco-geographic zone.

This paper reports on an area wide study of all major variables determining the expression of trypanosomosis in cattle in the subhumid eco-zone of West Africa, taking Togo as an example. To enable systematic area-wide sampling, the country was divided in 311 grid-squares of 0.125 x 0.125 sides. Cross-sectional surveys were then conducted to generate maps or digital layers on cattle density, herd structure, ownership and breed. These data layers, except for the breed data, were subjected to a cluster analysis in order to define spatial patterns in animal husbandry systems. This analysis revealed two main systems: one is oriented towards integration with crop-agriculture and a second towards investment in cattle. These two systems could be further characterised by incorporating breed data. Zebu cattle and their crossbreeds are more favoured in the second system. The breed distribution map shows the actual situation but also serves to predict the outcome of progressive crossbreeding. An area wide trypanosomosis survey allowed the production of prevalence maps for Trypanosoma congolense, T. vivax and the associated packed cell volume (PCV) values. A simple curvi-linear relationship was established between vector density and disease prevalence. The regression between disease prevalence and PCV for taurine and zebu plus crossbreeds separately, revealed that taurine cattle maintain a comparatively high PCV level particularly in high prevalence scenarios. The relationship between the average herd PCV and cattle density suggests that herd PCV value may provide a mirror for the number of animals not kept because of the prevailing risk. The regression between agricultural intensity and cattle density subsequently in areas with decreasing herd PCV values reveals that the level of integration of cattle in crop production decreases with a decreasing PCV. Thus, despite the presence of taurine animals in Togo, the omnipresence of tsetse in particular Glossina tachinoides, remains a major obstacle to cattle raising and indirectly mixed farming development and intensification. It is argued that only with the present type of wide scale, spatial studies it becomes possible to clarify all the major variables influencing the expression of trypanosomosis. Spatial epidemiological studies at a macro level may form the basis for area wide trypanosomosis control in West Africa.

Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick’s geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance) is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

In order to improve the spatial resolution of current risk maps for fasciolosis in cattle, more knowledge is needed with respect to farm-level factors that determine infection risk. In this study, we visited 39 dairy farms within a predefined low- and high-risk area for fasciolosis in Belgium and assessed their infection status by an indirect bulk tank milk enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Management factors were collected and all pastured lands of the farms were visited to identify and georeference potential snail habitats. The habitats were visually characterised, investigated for the presence of the intermediate host snails of Fasciola hepatica (i.e.Galba truncatula and Radix spp.) and used in a geographical information system (GIS) to construct overlays including information on soil and hydrology. A linear regression model was used to evaluate associations between bulk tank milk ELISA results and farm level management and habitat factors. A logistic, mixed model was used to identify possible risk factors for the presence of intermediate host snails on a potential habitat. Potential snail habitats were found in 35 out of 39 farms. A total of 87 potential habitats were identified and on 29% of these, intermediate host snails were found. The number of potential habitats, the presence of snails, drainage of pastures, month of turnout of the cows, stocking rate, type of watering place and risk area were significantly associated with the bulk tank milk ELISA result and explained 85% of the observed variation. Intermediate host snails were more likely to be present with increasing surface of the potential habitat and on loamy soils. This study confirms the importance of farm management factors in the infection risk for F. hepatica in cattle and highlights that the combination of management factors with characterization of snail habitats is a powerful means to predict the infection risk with F. hepatica at the individual farm level. Further research is needed to investigate how this knowledge can be incorporated in nation-wide spatial distribution models of the parasite.

L’augmentation du prix des produits importés qui a suivi la dévaluation du franc CFA en 1994 a rendu difficile l’accès des éleveurs aux produits de type pour-on, les obligeant à se rabattre sur des méthodes moins fiables pour combattre non seulement les tiques, mais aussi la trypanosomose animale africaine (Taa) transmise par les mouches tsé-tsé ou glossines. En vue de palier à ce problème, le projet de lutte contre la trypanosomose animale au Togo (Plta) a expérimenté une nouvelle méthode d’application couplant les avantages de la méthode pour-on à un coût réduit : ElectrodynTM (Zeneca). Cette méthode est basée sur la pulvérisation électronique d’une formulation insecticide (Karate 2,5 ED®) à base de lambda-cyhalothrine 1 p. 100. L’étude a eu lieu sur 170 bovins dans le village de Skriback au nord du Togo (304 têtes à la fin de l’étude). De mars 1996 à mars 1997, tous les animaux ont été traités et de juillet 1997 à juillet 1998, seulement la moitié d’entre eux. Avant d’entamer la première application du produit, des enquêtes préliminaires ont été menées pendant un an (février 1995 - février 1996) afin d’avoir des données exactes sur la pression des glossines dans la zone et de pouvoir comparer leur densité avant et après le traitement. Les résultats indiquent que ce système a été très efficace dans les conditions de cette étude. L’intervention a permis de réduire la densité des glossines de 99,55 p. 100 et, couplée au traitement trypanocide, de réduire la prévalence de la Taa de 17 à 2 p. 100 ; associée à une vermifugation régulière des animaux, elle a également permis l’amélioration de l’hématocrite moyen du troupeau de 27 à 32,5 p. 100. Du point de vue économique, la méthode Electrodyn revient à un tiers du prix de l’application par la méthode pour-on classique. Elle offre en outre des potentialités considérables en combinaison avec la protection phytosanitaire (coton). La maniabilité de l’applicateur (longueur fixe) et le coût des piles relativement élevé sont les inconvénients qui peuvent entraver l’acceptabilité de la technique.

L’examen parasitologique de 738 bovins de types zébu, taurin et de leurscroisements (zébu x taurin) du nord du Togo, d’âge compris entre 1 et12 mois, a permis de mettre en évidence plusieurs agents pathogènes et vecteursappartenant à différents groupes de parasites (piroplasmes, trypanosomes,nématodes, tiques et glossines) et d’évaluer leur fréquence relative(Babesia : 16,9 p. 100 de prévalence ; Trypanosoma : 11,0 p. 100 ; stronglesdigestifs : 46,4 p. 100). Les actions pathogènes de ces parasites sur leurs hôtesont été évaluées par la mesure du taux d’hématocrite (29,3 p. 100 enmoyenne) qui s’est élevé en fin de saison sèche (31,1 p. 100) et dans leszones d’application d’insecticides épicutanés sur le bétail (29,6 p. 100) où lesanimaux étaient suivis dans le cadre du Projet régional de lutte contre la trypanosomoseanimale (Plta). Au plan épidémiologique, le parasitisme desbovins a varié en fonction des zones éco-géographiques, des saisons, du suivides animaux par le Plta, des races, du type d’élevage et de l’âge des animaux.Il a pu être confirmé que la trypanosomose et la strongylose étaient des fléauximportants, en revanche Babesia sp. s’est révélée comme un hémoparasitedont l’impact sur la santé des veaux avait été sous-estimé.

Des cas de sclérectasie ont été décrits dans un élevage porcin à Sotouboua, Togo. Le virus de la peste porcine pourrait en être l'origine, la consanguinité étant un facteur prédisposant. Les éleveurs doivent rester vigilants.

We read with interest the article ‘Trypanosomiasis and tsetse control with insecticidal pour-ons—fact and fiction?’, by M. Baylis and P. Stevenson1xBaylis, M. and Stevenson, P. Parasitol. Today. 1998; 14: 77–82Abstract | Full Text | Full Text PDF | PubMed | Scopus (28)See all References, in which the authors presented the results of a small tsetse control trial using ‘pour-on’, from which they drew, in our opinion, too wide-ranging conclusions.First, the experimental and control areas were, according to our estimates, only about 60 km2 within Galana Ranch, Kenya – a tsetse-infested area covering some 6000 km2. Given that a tsetse barrier has to be at least 10 km in depth to prevent re-invasion, how can the authors have expected to have had any major, or even quantifiable, effect on the overall tsetse populations in this area from such a relatively small treatment zone?In addition, the tsetse data are likely to have been affected by the regular use of an unspecified acaricide for cattle in the non-intervention area; there is no guarantee that the product ‘is ineffective against tsetse’.Finally, the authors conclude that their experiment did not produce sufficient data to allow a coherent assessment of the impact of deltamethrin on tsetse populations at Galana, but then proceed to offer various hypotheses to explain the significantly lower incidence of trypanosomosis (AAT) in the treated area.We comment on two of their hypotheses:(1) The authors conclude that repellency is of no importance in explaining the observed effects of deltamethrin2xThomson, M.C. Trop. Pest. Man. 1987; 33: 329–335Crossref | Scopus (30)See all References, 3xThomson, J.W. et al. Trop. Anim. Health Prod. 1989; 23: 221–226Crossref | Scopus (29)See all References, 4xBauer, B. et al. Trop. Med. Parasitol. 1989; 40: 478–479PubMedSee all References, 5xBauer, B. et al. Trop. Med. Parasitol. 1992; 43: 38–40PubMedSee all References. We have tested more than 30 different pyrethroid formulations and published some of our findings6xBauer, B. et al. ISCTRC. 1993; 117: 276–279See all References. We have never observed any repellency of deltamethrins, but have observed irritant effects which, in conjunction with the defensive reactions of treated animals to tsetse landing, prevented a significant number of flies from probing and feeding.(2) The authors suggest that deltamethrin treatment would result in a reduction in tick burden leading to a general improvement in animal health and thereby improved resistance to trypanosomosis. Undeniably, tick control may have had a beneficial effect on the general health state of the treated animals. However, they supply no evidence to support the suggestion that there would be an impact on the incidence of AAT [eg. change in packed cell volume (PCV)]. Given that all animals in the non-intervention area were regularly treated with an acaricide, it is not entirely logical to suggest that tick-control reduces the incidence of AAT.Both target technology and live bait techniques can effectively control tsetse, but in an appraisal of the relative advantages/disadvantages of different tsetse control techniques, the essential issue is sustainability. Servicing traps or targets may be possible, but simultaneous and full cost-recovery is not, as was indicated by an investigation carried out in Cote d’Ivoire7xSee all References.Careful examination of the authors’ data for both tsetse and trypanosomosis shows very clearly that ‘pour-on’ treatment reduced incidence of AAT seasonally, when tsetse were relatively few, but not towards the end of 1990 and the end of 1991, when flies remained abundant. Such a finding is hardly surprising, given that tsetse suppression was carried out in a small plot amidst an ‘ocean’ of flies.

The visualization of vector occurrence in space and time is an important aspect of studying vector-borne diseases. Detailed maps of possible vector habitats provide valuable information for the prediction of infection risk zones but are currently lacking for most parts of the world. Nonetheless, monitoring vector habitats from the finest scales up to farm level is of key importance to refine currently existing broad-scale infection risk models. Using Fasciola hepatica, a parasite liver fluke as a case in point, this study illustrates the potential of very high resolution (VHR) optical satellite imagery to efficiently and semi-automatically detect detailed vector habitats. A WorldView2 satellite image capable of

Culicoides imicola KIEFFER, 1913 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) is the principal vector of Bluetongue disease in the Mediterranean basin, Africa and Asia. Previous studies have identified a range of eco-climatic variables associated with the distribution of C. imicola, and these relationships have been used to predict the large-scale distribution of the vector. However, these studies are not temporally-explicit and can not be used to predict the seasonality in C. imicola abundances. Between 2001 and 2006, longitudinal entomological surveillance was carried out throughout Italy, and provided a comprehensive spatio-temporal dataset of C. imicola catches in Onderstepoort-type black-light traps, in particular in Sardinia where the species is considered endemic., Journal Article, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published