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The pragmatic management of invasive alien species should integrate two essential items: 1) management interventions and 2) a spatially explicit management plan. Predicting the future expansion of target species in a region at the early invasion stage is an important step toward the establishment of a spatially explicit management plan. However, information regarding the distributions of target species is limited, making it challenging to predict range expansions. In the present study, we established a simulation model that could predict the future expansion of the invasive insect Aromia bungii, which is harmful to Prunus trees (including cherry trees [Cerasus × yedoensis]), in Japan. We employed a virtual ecology approach that simulated species dynamics based on a simple model in Saitama Prefecture, which is in the Kanto region of Japan. Since the first record of the species in this region of Japan in 2013, its range has expanded dramatically. Three candidate pathways and combinations of these for the range expansion of A. bungii were tested to identify the major proxies of expansion for this species, followed by the validation of these results using occurrence records for the species through 2019. Both the river density model and combined river and road density models showed good predictive performance. Using these models, we established a predictive map of the future expansion of this species in the wider range of the simulation area. Based on the results, we recommend concentration of management efforts in the mid-northeast region of the Saitama Prefecture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we propose a method for estimating the risk of agricultural damage caused by an invasive species when species-specific information is lacking. We defined the 'risk' as the product of the invasion probability and the area of potentially damaged crop for production. As a case study, we estimated the risk imposed by an invasive weed, Sicyos angulatus, based on simple cellular simulations and governmental data on the area of crop that could potentially be damaged in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan. Simulation results revealed that the current distribution range was sufficiently accurate for practical purposes. Using these results and records of crop areas, we present risk maps for S. angulatus in agricultural fields. Managers will be able to use these maps to rapidly establish a management plan with minimal cost. Our approach will be valuable for establishing a management plan before or during the early stages of invasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east‐central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand‐pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life‐stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand‐pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross‐pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self‐ and cross‐pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self‐compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self‐compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Containment can be a viable strategy for managing invasive plants, but it is not always cheaper than eradication. In many cases, converting a failed eradication programme to a containment programme is not economically justified. Despite this, many contemporary invasive plant management strategies invoke containment as a fallback for failed eradication, often without detailing how containment would be implemented., We demonstrate a generalized analysis of the costs of eradication and containment, applicable to any plant invasion for which infestation size, dispersal distance, seed bank lifetime and the economic discount rate are specified. We estimate the costs of adapting eradication and containment in response to six types of breach and calculate under what conditions containment may provide a valid fallback to a breached eradication programme., We provide simple, general formulae and plots that can be applied to any invasion and show that containment will be cheaper than eradication only when the size of the occupied zone exceeds a multiple of the dispersal distance determined by seed bank longevity and the discount rate. Containment becomes proportionally cheaper than eradication for invaders with smaller dispersal distances, longer lived seed banks, or for larger discount rates., Both containment and eradication programmes are at risk of breach. Containment is less exposed to risk from reproduction in the 'occupied zone' and three types of breach that lead to a larger 'occupied zone', but more exposed to one type of breach that leads to a larger 'buffer zone'., For a well-specified eradication programme, only the three types of breach leading to reproduction in or just outside the buffer zone can justify falling back to containment, and only if the expected costs of eradication and containment were comparable before the breach., Synthesis and applications. Weed management plans must apply a consistent definition of containment and provide sufficient implementation detail to assess its feasibility. If the infestation extent, dispersal capacity, seed bank longevity and economic discount rate are specified, the general results presented here can be used to assess whether containment can outperform eradication, and under what conditions it would provide a valid fallback to a breached eradication programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean warming associated with global climate change renders marine ecosystems susceptible to biological invasions. Here, we used species distribution models to project habitat suitability for eight invasive ascidians under present-day and future climate scenarios. Distance to shore and maximum sea surface temperature were identified as the most important variables affecting species distributions. Results showed that eight ascidians might respond differently to future climate change. Alarmingly, currently colonized areas are much smaller than predicted, suggesting ascidians may expand their invasive ranges. Areas such as Americas, Europe and Western Pacific have high risks of receiving new invasions. In contrast, African coasts, excluding the Mediterranean side, are not prone to new invasions, likely due to the high sea surface temperature there. Our results highlight the importance of climate change impacts on future invasions and the need for accurate modelling of invasion risks, which can be used as guides to develop management strategies. • We mapped current and future potential distributions of 8 invasive ascidians. • Distance to shore and max sea surface temperature were crucial variables. • The majority of invaders have occupied a small portion of their potential habitats. • Four species will have substantial increase in potential ranges as time progresses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]