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Theory links dispersal and diversity, predicting the highest diversity at intermediate dispersal levels. However, the modulation of this relationship by macro-eco-evolutionary mechanisms and competition within a landscape is still elusive. We examine the interplay between dispersal, competition and landscape structure in shaping biodiversity over 5 million years in a dynamic archipelago landscape. We model allopatric speciation, temperature niche, dispersal, competition, trait evolution and trade-offs between competitive and dispersal traits. Depending on dispersal abilities and their interaction with landscape structure, our archipelago exhibits two 'connectivity regimes', that foster speciation events among the same group of islands. Peaks of diversity (i.e. alpha, gamma and phylogenetic), occurred at intermediate dispersal; while competition shifted diversity peaks towards higher dispersal values for each connectivity regime. This shift demonstrates how competition can boost allopatric speciation events through the evolution of thermal specialists, ultimately limiting geographical ranges. Even in a simple landscape, multiple intermediate dispersal diversity relationships emerged, all shaped similarly and according to dispersal and competition strength. Our findings remain valid as dispersal- and competitive-related traits evolve and trade-off; potentially leaving identifiable biodiversity signatures, particularly when trade-offs are imposed. Overall, we scrutinize the convoluted relationships between dispersal, species interactions and landscape structure on macro-eco-evolutionary processes, with lasting imprints on biodiversity.This article is part of the theme issue 'Diversity-dependence of dispersal: interspecific interactions determine spatial dynamics'.

Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains.

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most widely studied patterns in ecology, yet no consensus has been reached about its underlying causes. We argue that the reasons for this are the verbal nature of existing hypotheses, the failure to mechanistically link interacting ecological and evolutionary processes to the LDG, and the fact that empirical patterns are often consistent with multiple explanations. To address this issue, we synthesize current LDG hypotheses, uncovering their eco-evolutionary mechanisms, hidden assumptions, and commonalities. Furthermore, we propose mechanistic eco-evolutionary modeling and an inferential approach that makes use of geographic, phylogenetic, and trait-based patterns to assess the relative importance of different processes for generating the LDG., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Negative distance dependence (NDisD), or reduced recruitment near adult conspecifics, is thought to explain the astounding diversity of tropical forests. While many studies show greater mortality at near vs. far distances from adults, these studies do not seek to track changes in the peak seedling curve over time, thus limiting our ability to link NDisD to coexistence. Using census data collected over 12 years from central Panama in conjunction with spatial mark-connection functions, we show evidence for NDisD for many species, and find that the peak seedling curve shifts away from conspecific adults over time. We find wide variation in the strength of NDisD, which was correlated with seed size and canopy position, but other life-history traits showed no relationship with variation in NDisD mortality. Our results document shifts in peak seedling densities over time, thus providing evidence for the hypothesized spacing mechanism necessary for diversity maintenance in tropical forests., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.)

Understanding the structure and dynamics of highly diverse tropical forests is challenging. Here we investigate the factors that drive the spatio-temporal variation of local tree numbers and species richness in a tropical forest (including 1250 plots of 20 × 20 m 2 ). To this end, we use a series of dynamic models that are built around the local spatial variation of mortality and recruitment rates, and ask which combination of processes can explain the observed spatial and temporal variation in tree and species numbers. We find that processes not included in classical neutral theory are needed to explain these fundamental patterns of the observed local forest dynamics. We identified a large spatio-temporal variability in the local number of recruits as the main missing mechanism, whereas variability of mortality rates contributed to a lesser extent. We also found that local tree numbers stabilize at typical values which can be explained by a simple analytical model. Our study emphasized the importance of spatio-temporal variability in recruitment beyond demographic stochasticity for explaining the local heterogeneity of tropical forests., (© 2017 The Author(s).)

Recent theory predicts that stochastic dilution effects may result in species-rich communities with statistically independent species spatial distributions, even if the underlying ecological processes structuring the community are driven by deterministic niche differences. Stochastic dilution is a consequence of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity where the identities of the nearest neighbors of individuals of a given species are largely unpredictable. Under such circumstances, the outcome of deterministic species interactions may vary greatly among individuals of a given species. Consequently, nonrandom patterns in the biotic neighborhoods of species, which might be expected from coexistence or community assembly theory (e.g., individuals of a given species are neighbored by phylogenetically similar species), are weakened or do not emerge, resulting in statistical independence of species spatial distributions. We used data on phylogenetic and functional similarity of tree species in five large forest dynamics plots located across a gradient of species richness to test predictions of the stochastic dilution hypothesis. To quantify the biotic neighborhood of a focal species we used the mean phylogenetic (or functional) dissimilarity of the individuals of the focal species to all species within a local neighborhood. We then compared the biotic neighborhood of species to predictions from stochastic null models to test if a focal species was surrounded by more or less similar species than expected by chance. The proportions of focal species that showed spatial independence with respect to their biotic neighborhoods increased with total species richness. Locally dominant, high-abundance species were more likely to be surrounded by species that were statistically more similar or more dissimilar than expected by chance. Our results suggest that stochasticity may play a stronger role in shaping the spatial structure of species rich tropical forest communities than it does in species poorer forests. These findings represent an important step towards understanding the factors that govern the spatial configuration of local biotic communities. The stochastic dilution effect is a simple geometric mechanism that can explain why species' spatial distributions in species-rich communities approximate independence from their biotic neighborhood, even if deterministic niche processes are in effect.

Interactions among neighboring individuals influence plant performance and should create spatial patterns in local community structure. In order to assess the role of large trees in generating spatial patterns in local species richness, we used the individual species-area relationship (ISAR) to evaluate the species richness of trees of different size classes (and dead trees) in circular neighborhoods with varying radius around large trees of different focal species. To reveal signals of species interactions, we compared the ISAR function of the individuals of focal species with that of randomly selected nearby locations. We expected that large trees should strongly affect the community structure of smaller trees in their neighborhood, but that these effects should fade away with increasing size class. Unexpectedly, we found that only few focal species showed signals of species interactions with trees of the different size classes and that this was less likely for less abundant focal species. However, the few and relatively weak departures from independence were consistent with expectations of the effect of competition for space and the dispersal syndrome on spatial patterns. A noisy signal of competition for space found for large trees built up gradually with increasing life stage; it was not yet present for large saplings but detectable for intermediates. Additionally, focal species with animal-dispersed seeds showed higher species richness in their neighborhood than those with gravity- and gyration-dispersed seeds. Our analysis across the entire ontogeny from recruits to large trees supports the hypothesis that stochastic effects dilute deterministic species interactions in highly diverse communities. Stochastic dilution is a consequence of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in species-rich communities where the identities of the nearest neighbors of a given plant are largely unpredictable. While the outcome of local species interactions is governed for each plant by deterministic fitness and niche differences, the large variability of competitors causes also a large variability in the outcomes of interactions and does not allow for strong directed responses at the species level. Collectively, our results highlight the critical effect of the stochastic geometry of biodiversity in structuring local spatial patterns of tropical forest diversity.

Although trait information has been widely used to explore underlying mechanisms of forest community structure, most studies have focused on local patterns of phylogenetic or functional alpha diversity. Investigations of functional beta diversity, on the other hand, have not been conducted at local scales in a spatially explicit way. In this study, we provide a powerful methodology based on recent advances in spatial point pattern analysis using fully mapped data of large and small trees in two large temperate forest plots. This approach allowed us to assess the relative importance of different ecological processes and mechanisms for explaining patterns of local phylogenetic and functional beta diversity. For both forests and size classes, we found a clear hierarchy of scales: habitat filtering accounted for patterns of phylogenetic and functional beta diversity at larger distances (150-250 m), dispersal limitation accounted for the observed decline in beta diversity at distances below 150 m, and species interactions explained small departures from functional and phylogenetic beta diversity at the immediate plant-neighborhood scale (below 20 m). Thus, both habitat filtering and dispersal limitation influenced the observed patterns in phylogenetic and functional beta diversity at local scales. This result contrasts with a previous study from the same forests, where dispersal limitation alone approximated the observed species beta diversity for distances up to 250 m. In addition, species interactions were relatively unimportant for predicting phylogenetic and functional beta diversity. Our analysis suggests that phylogenetic and functional beta diversity can provide insights into the mechanisms of local community assembly that are missed by studies focusing exclusively on species beta diversity.

Assessing the relative importance of different processes that determine the spatial distribution of species and the dynamics in highly diverse plant communities remains a challenging question in ecology. Previous modelling approaches often focused on single aggregated forest diversity patterns that convey limited information on the underlying dynamic processes. Here, we use recent advances in inference for stochastic simulation models to evaluate the ability of a spatially explicit and spatially continuous neutral model to quantitatively predict six spatial and non-spatial patterns observed at the 50 ha tropical forest plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The patterns capture different aspects of forest dynamics and biodiversity structure, such as annual mortality rate, species richness, species abundance distribution, beta-diversity and the species-area relationship (SAR). The model correctly predicted each pattern independently and up to five patterns simultaneously. However, the model was unable to match the SAR and beta-diversity simultaneously. Our study moves previous theory towards a dynamic spatial theory of biodiversity and demonstrates the value of spatial data to identify ecological processes. This opens up new avenues to evaluate the consequences of additional process for community assembly and dynamics.

The assertion that the spatial location of different species is independent of each other is fundamental in major ecological theories such as neutral theory that describes a stochastic geometry of biodiversity. However, this assertion has rarely been tested. Here we use techniques of spatial point pattern analysis to conduct a comprehensive test of the independence assertion by analysing data from three large forest plots with different species richness: a species-rich tropical forest at Barro Colorado Island (Panama), a tropical forest in Sinharaja (Sri Lanka), and a temperate forest in Changbaishan (China). We hypothesize that stochastic dilution effects owing to increasing species richness overpower signals of species associations, thereby yielding approximate species independence. Indeed, the proportion of species pairs showing: (i) no significant interspecific association increased with species richness, (ii) segregation decreased with species richness, and (iii) small-scale interspecific interaction decreased with species richness. This suggests that independence may indeed be a good approximation in the limit of very species-rich communities. Our findings are a step towards a better understanding of factors governing species-rich communities and we propose a hypothesis to explain why species placement in species-rich communities approximates independence.

Clustering at multiple critical scales may be common for plants since many different factors and processes may cause clustering. This is especially true for tropical rain forests for which theories explaining species coexistence and community structure rest heavily on spatial patterns. We used point pattern analysis to analyze the spatial structure of Shorea congestiflora, a dominant species in a 25-ha forest dynamics plot in a rain forest at Sinharaja World Heritage Site (Sri Lanka), which apparently shows clustering at several scales. We developed cluster processes incorporating two critical scales of clustering for exploring the spatial structure of S. congestiflora and interpret it in relation to factors such as competition, dispersal limitation, recruitment limitation, and Janzen-Connell effects. All size classes showed consistent large-scale clustering with a cluster radius of approximately 25 m. Inside the larger clusters, small-scale clusters with a radius of 8 m were evident for recruits and saplings, weak for intermediates, and disappeared for adults. The pattern of all trees could be divided into two independent patterns: a random pattern (nearest neighbor distance > 8 m) comprising approximately 12% of the trees and a nested double-cluster pattern. This finding suggests two independent recruitment and/or seed dispersal mechanisms. Saplings were several times as abundant as recruits and may accumulate several recruit generations. Recruits were only weakly associated with adults and occupied about half of the large-scale clusters, but saplings almost all. This is consistent with recruitment limitation. For approximately 70% (95%) of all juveniles the nearest adult was less than 26 m away (53 m), suggesting a dispersal limitation that may also be related to the critical large-scale clustering. Our example illustrates the manner in which the use of a specific and complex null hypothesis of spatial structure in point pattern analysis can help us better understand the biology of a species and generate specific hypotheses to be further investigated in the field.

A persistent challenge in ecology is to explain the high diversity of tree species in tropical forests. Although the role of species characteristics in maintaining tree diversity in tropical forests has been the subject of theory and debate for decades, spatial patterns in local diversity have not been analyzed from the viewpoint of individual species. To measure scale-dependent local diversity structures around individual species, we propose individual species-area relationships (ISAR), a spatial statistic that marries common species-area relationships with Ripley's K to measure the expected alpha diversity in circular neighborhoods with variable radius around an arbitrary individual of a target species. We use ISAR to investigate if and at which spatial scales individual species increase in tropical forests' local diversity (accumulators), decrease local diversity (repellers), or behave neutrally. Our analyses of data from Barro Colorado Island (Panama) and Sinharaja (Sri Lanka) reveal that individual species leave identifiable signatures on spatial diversity, but only on small spatial scales. Most species showed neutral behavior outside neighborhoods of 20 m. At short scales (<20 m), we observed, depending on the forest type, two strongly different roles of species: diversity repellers dominated at Barro Colorado Island and accumulators at Sinharaja. Nevertheless, we find that the two tropical forests lacked any key species structuring species diversity at larger scales, suggesting that "balanced" species-species interactions may be a characteristic of these species-rich forests. We anticipate our analysis method will be a starting point for more powerful investigations of spatial structures in diversity to promote a better understanding of biodiversity in tropical forests.