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One of the oldest and most persistent questions in ecology and evolution is whether natural communities tend to evolve toward saturation and maximal diversity. Robert MacArthur's classical theory of niche packing and the theory of adaptive radiations both imply that populations will diversify and fully partition any available niche space. However, the saturation of natural populations is still very much an open area of debate and investigation. Additionally, recent evolutionary theory suggests the existence of alternative evolutionary stable states (ESSs), which implies that some stable communities may not be fully saturated. Using models with classical Lotka-Volterra ecological dynamics and three formulations of evolutionary dynamics (a model using adaptive dynamics, an individual-based model, and a partial differential equation model), we show that following an adaptive radiation, communities can often get stuck in low diversity states when limited by mutations of small phenotypic effect. These low diversity metastable states can also be maintained by limited resources and finite population sizes. When small mutations and finite populations are considered together, it is clear that despite the presence of higher-diversity stable states, natural populations are likely not fully saturating their environment and leaving potential niche space unfilled. Additionally, within-species variation can further reduce community diversity from levels predicted by models that assume species-level homogeneity., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

The mechanisms for the origin and maintenance of biological diversity are not fully understood. It is known that frequency-dependent selection, generating advantages for rare types, can maintain genetic variation and lead to speciation, but in models with simple phenotypes (that is, low-dimensional phenotype spaces), frequency dependence needs to be strong to generate diversity. However, we show that if the ecological properties of an organism are determined by multiple traits with complex interactions, the conditions needed for frequency-dependent selection to generate diversity are relaxed to the point where they are easily satisfied in high-dimensional phenotype spaces. Mathematically, this phenomenon is reflected in properties of eigenvalues of quadratic forms. Because all living organisms have at least hundreds of phenotypes, this casts the potential importance of frequency dependence for the origin and maintenance of diversity in a new light.

We study macroevolutionary dynamics by extending microevolutionary competition models to long timescales. It has been shown that for a general class of competition models, gradual evolutionary change in continuous phenotypes (evolutionary dynamics) can be nonstationary and even chaotic when the dimension of the phenotype space in which the evolutionary dynamics unfold is high. It has also been shown that evolutionary diversification can occur along nonequilibrium trajectories in phenotype space. We combine these lines of thinking by studying long-term coevolutionary dynamics of emerging lineages in multidimensional phenotype spaces. We use a statistical approach to investigate the evolutionary dynamics of many different systems. We find (1) that, for a given dimension of phenotype space, the coevolutionary dynamics tend to be fast and nonstationary for an intermediate number of coexisting lineages but tend to stabilize as the evolving communities reach a saturation level of diversity and (2) that the amount of diversity at the saturation level increases rapidly (exponentially) with the dimension of phenotype space. These results have implications for theoretical perspectives on major macroevolutionary patterns such as adaptive radiation, longterm temporal patterns of phenotypic changes, and the evolution of diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We address the problem of cultural diversification by studying selection on cultural ideas that colonize human hosts and using diversification of religions as a conceptual example. In analogy to studying the evolution of pathogens or symbionts colonizing animal hosts, we use models for host–pathogen dynamics known from theoretical epidemiology. In these models, religious content colonizes individual humans. Rates of transmission of ideas between humans, i.e., transmission of cultural content, and rates of loss of ideas (loss of belief) are determined by the phenotype of the cultural content, and by interactions between hosts carrying different ideas. In particular, based on the notion that cultural non-conformism can be negative frequency-dependent (for example, religion can lead to oppression of lower classes and emergence of non-conformism and dissent once a religious belief has reached dominance), we assume that the rate of loss of belief increases as the number of humans colonized by a particular religious phenotype increases. This generates frequency-dependent selection on cultural content, and we use evolutionary theory to show that this frequency dependence can lead to the emergence of coexisting clusters of different cultural types. The different clusters correspond to different cultural traditions, and hence our model describes the emergence of distinct descendant cultures from a single ancestral culture in the absence of any geographical isolation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]