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We here explore the use of a Bayesian approach to island biogeography for disentangling the evolutionary origins of a continental-scale floristic pattern, the enigmatic 'Rand Flora'. The existence of disjunct distributions across many plant lineages between Macaronesia-northwest Africa, Horn of Africa-southern Arabia and east-south Africa has long intrigued botanists, but only now can we start analysing it within a statistical framework. Phylogenetic and distributional data from 13 plant lineages exhibiting this disjunct distribution were analysed to estimate area carrying capacities and historical rates of biotic exchange between areas. The results indicate that there has been little exchange between southern Africa and the northern African region, and that this exchange occurred via east Africa. Northwest Africa-Macaronesia shows the smallest carrying capacity but highest dispersal rate with other regions, suggesting that its flora was built up by immigration of lineages, probably from the Mediterranean region and western Asia. In contrast, southern Africa shows the highest carrying capacity and lowest dispersal rate, suggesting a flora formed by in situ diversification. We discuss further improvements of the method for addressing more complex hypotheses, such as asymmetric dispersal between regions or repeated cyclical events.

Dating the Tree of Life has now become central to relating patterns of biodiversity to key processes in Earth history such as plate tectonics and climate change. Regions with a Mediterranean climate have long been noted for their exceptional species richness and high endemism. How and when these biota assembled can only be answered with a good understanding of the sequence of divergence times for each of their components. A critical aspect of dating by using molecular sequence divergence is the incorporation of multiple suitable age constraints. Here, we show that only rigorous phylogenetic analysis of fossil taxa can lead to solid calibration and, in turn, stable age estimates, regardless of which of 3 relaxed clock-dating methods is used. We find that Proteaceae, a model plant group for the Mediterranean hotspots of the Southern Hemisphere with a very rich pollen fossil record, diversified under higher rates in the Cape Floristic Region and Southwest Australia than in any other area of their total distribution. Our results highlight key differences between Mediterranean hotspots and indicate that Southwest Australian biota are the most phylogenetically diverse but include numerous lineages with low diversification rates.

Abstract: The angiosperm family Proteaceae is a distinct component of the Cape Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot with 330 endemic species. Phylogenetic analyses of subfamily Proteoideae using sequence data from one nuclear and six plastid loci show that most of this diversity is contained in two distinct Cape floral clades. Molecular dating analyses, using Bayesian and penalized likelihood methods and four phylogenetically supported fossil age constraints, reveal contrasting histories for these two clades. The genus Protea belongs to a lineage that may have been in Africa since the Late Cretaceous but began to diversify in the Cape only 5–18Myr ago. In contrast, the Leucadendrinae clade presumably arrived in the region no earlier than 46Myr ago by long-distance dispersal from an Australian ancestor and the extant members of this clade began to diversify in the Cape 22–39Myr ago. These results join a growing number of case studies that challenge the commonly accepted view that most of the Cape flora radiated synchronously in the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene when a Mediterranean climate settled in the region. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]