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We present the results of our 13th annual horizon scan of issues likely to impact on biodiversity conservation. Issues are either novel within the biological conservation sector or could cause a substantial step-change in impact, either globally or regionally. Our global panel of 26 scientists and practitioners identified 15 issues that we believe to represent the highest priorities for tracking and action. Many of the issues we identified, including the impact of satellite megaconstellations and the use of long-distance wireless energy transfer, have both elements of threats and emerging opportunities. A recent state-sponsored application to commence deep-sea mining represents a significant step-change in impact. We hope that this horizon scan will increase research and policy attention on the highlighted issues., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests No interests are declared., (Crown Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

During the breeding season seabirds are constrained to coastal areas and are restricted in their movements, spending much of their time in near-shore waters either loafing or foraging. However, in using these areas they may be threatened by anthropogenic activities such as fishing, watersports and coastal developments including marine renewable energy installations. Although many studies describe large scale interactions between seabirds and the environment, the drivers behind near-shore, fine-scale distributions are not well understood. For example, Alderney is an important breeding ground for many species of seabird and has a diversity of human uses of the marine environment, thus providing an ideal location to investigate the near-shore fine-scale interactions between seabirds and the environment. We used vantage point observations of seabird distribution, collected during the 2013 breeding season in order to identify and quantify some of the environmental variables affecting the near-shore, fine-scale distribution of seabirds in Alderney's coastal waters. We validate the models with observation data collected in 2014 and show that water depth, distance to the intertidal zone, and distance to the nearest seabird nest are key predictors in the distribution of Alderney's seabirds. AUC values for each species suggest that these models perform well, although the model for shags performed better than those for auks and gulls. While further unexplained underlying localised variation in the environmental conditions will undoubtedly effect the fine-scale distribution of seabirds in near-shore waters we demonstrate the potential of this approach in marine planning and decision making.

REDD+ aims to offset greenhouse gas emissions through “Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation”. Some authors suggest that REDD+ can bring additional benefits for biodiversity, namely for the conservation of extinction-prone restricted-range species. Here, we assess this claim, using São Tomé Island (Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe) as a case study. We quantified the abundance of bird and tree species, and calculated the aboveground carbon stocks across a gradient of land-use intensity. We found a strong spatial congruence between carbon and the presence and abundance of endemic species, supporting the potential of REDD+ to protect these taxa. We then assessed if REDD+ could help protect the forests of São Tomé and Príncipe. To do so, we used OSIRIS simulations to predict country-level deforestation under two different REDD+ designs. These simulations showed that REDD+ could promote the loss of forests in São Tomé and Príncipe through leakage. This happened even when additional payments for biodiversity were included in the simulations, and despite São Tomé and Príncipe having the fourth highest carbon stocks per land area and the second highest biodiversity values according to the OSIRIS database. These results show weaknesses of OSIRIS as a planning tool, and demonstrate that the benefits that REDD+ might bring for biodiversity are strongly dependent on its careful implementation. We recommend that payment for ecosystem services programmes such as REDD+ develop safeguards to ensure that biodiversity co-benefits are met and perverse outcomes are avoided across all tropical countries. In particular, we advise specific safeguards regarding the conservation of extinction-prone groups, such as island restricted-range species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Anthropogenic land-use change is a major driver of the current extinction crisis, but the processes through which it acts on biodiversity are complex and still poorly understood. Here, we use several biodiversity metrics to make a comprehensive assessment of the response of an endemic-rich bird assemblage to land-use change. Location São Tomé Island (São Tomé and Príncipe, Africa). Methods We sampled bird assemblages in 220 point counts, stratified across three regions and four land-use types. Species richness was examined using accumulation curves and generalized linear mixed-effect models. Compositional and structural changes were analysed with ordination techniques. We used correlations and model selection to identify species traits and environmental variables associated with such changes. Results At the point level, there was a slight decrease of species richness in more intensive land uses. However, higher dissimilarities within these land uses led them to have higher overall species richness. Endemics dominated forest environments and, although most preferred less-disturbed land uses, many persisted across all land uses. Non-endemics were virtually absent from forests, but became very abundant in the more intensive land uses. Canopy cover was the best predictor of the shift between endemic and non-endemic species, and allowed identifying regional differences in the local responses of bird assemblages to land-use change. Main conclusions To better understand biodiversity, it is crucial to use several metrics simultaneously. In São Tomé, simply using species richness, the single most used biodiversity metric, could have been misleading as it concealed major shifts in the bird assemblage structure towards an endemism impoverished avifauna. Despite scarce data on land-use cover, we demonstrate how landscape context can be vital to understand biodiversity patterns and that highly forested surroundings might overestimate the strict value of more intensive land uses. Our results raise concerns about the long-term persistence of endemic species restricted to islands where forested land uses are being lost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconciling the aims of feeding an ever more demanding human population and conserving biodiversity is a difficult challenge. Here, we explore potential solutions by assessing whether land sparing (farming for high yield, potentially enabling the protection of non-farmland habitat), land sharing (lower yielding farming with more biodiversity within farmland) or a mixed strategy would result in better bird conservation outcomes for a specified level of agricultural production. We surveyed forest and farmland study areas in southern Uganda, measuring the population density of 256 bird species and agricultural yield: food energy and gross income. Parametric non-linear functions relating density to yield were fitted. Species were identified as “winners” (total population size always at least as great with agriculture present as without it) or “losers” (total population sometimes or always reduced with agriculture present) for a range of targets for total agricultural production. For each target we determined whether each species would be predicted to have a higher total population with land sparing, land sharing or with any intermediate level of sparing at an intermediate yield. We found that most species were expected to have their highest total populations with land sparing, particularly loser species and species with small global range sizes. Hence, more species would benefit from high-yield farming if used as part of a strategy to reduce forest loss than from low-yield farming and land sharing, as has been found in Ghana and India in a previous study. We caution against advocacy for high-yield farming alone as a means to deliver land sparing if it is done without strong protection for natural habitats, other ecosystem services and social welfare. Instead, we suggest that conservationists explore how conservation and agricultural policies can be better integrated to deliver land sparing by, for example, combining land-use planning and agronomic support for small farmers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With current losses of saltmarsh running at> 100 ha per year in the UK, creation of new intertidal habitats through managed realignment is likely to be increasingly used. Potentially, this has biodiversity as well as engineering benefits. However, assessing the conservation value of many of the current UK schemes is difficult as the biological monitoring has been generally poor, with a few notable exceptions. At the Tollesbury and Orplands realignment sites, Essex, bird communities were dominated by terrestrial species during the first year of inundation and waterbird communities rapidly developed during the second and third years. Five years after the initial breach in the sea wall, communities were similar to surrounding mudflats but with some notable exceptions. DunlinCalidris alpinaand Common RedshankTringa totanusthat prey on the early colonizingNereisandHydrobiaused the sites in the first 2 years. Eurasian OystercatcherHaematopus ostralegusdid not occur on the realignment site as there were no large bivalves, whereas Red KnotCalidris canutusused the site after 4–5 years coincidentally with the appearance ofMacoma balthica. The differences in the bird communities occurred because UK sites are often small, enclosed and poorly drained. If at a suitable height in the tidal frame, UK managed realignment sites are successful in that they have developed saltmarsh and biologically active mudflats but they may lack the full range of biodiversity found in surrounding natural intertidal habitats, even decades after inundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Biodiversity, tree carbon and income were quantified along an agricultural gradient. [•] Cultivation intensity increased crop income, decreased biodiversity and tree carbon. [•] Sustainable agriculture requires policy mechanisms and knowledge transfer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]