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Gravitational-wave (GW) detectors are observing compact object mergers from increasingly far distances, revealing the redshift evolution of the binary black hole (BBH)—and soon the black hole–neutron star (BHNS) and binary neutron star (BNS)—merger rate. To help interpret these observations, we investigate the expected redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate from the isolated binary evolution channel. We present a publicly available catalog of compact object mergers and their accompanying cosmological merger rates from population synthesis simulations conducted with the COMPAS software. To explore the impact of uncertainties in stellar and binary evolution, our simulations use two-parameter grids of binary evolution models that vary the common-envelope efficiency with mass transfer accretion efficiency and supernova (SN) remnant mass prescription with SN natal kick velocity, respectively. We quantify the redshift evolution of our simulated merger rates using the local (z ∼ 0) rate, the redshift at which the merger rate peaks, and the normalized differential rates (as a proxy for slope). We find that although the local rates span a range of ∼103 across our model variations, their redshift evolutions are remarkably similar for BBHs, BHNSs, and BNSs, with differentials typically within a factor 3 and peaks of z ≈ 1.2–2.4 across models. Furthermore, several trends in our simulated rates are correlated with the model parameters we explore. We conclude that future observations of the redshift evolution of the compact object merger rate can help constrain binary models for stellar evolution and GW formation channels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Gravitational-wave detectors are now making it possible to investigate how the merger rate of binary black holes (BBHs) evolves with redshift. In this study, we examine whether the BBH merger rate of isolated binaries deviates from a scaled star formation rate density (SFRD)—a frequently used model in state-of-the-art research. To address this question, we conduct population synthesis simulations using COMPAS with a grid of stellar evolution models, calculate their cosmological merger rates, and compare them to a scaled SFRD. We find that our simulated rates deviate by factors up to 3.5 at z ∼ 0 and 5 at z ∼ 9 due to two main phenomena: (i) the formation efficiency of BBHs is an order of magnitude higher at low metallicities than at solar metallicity, and (ii) BBHs experience a wide range of delays (from a few megayears to many gigayears) between formation and merger. The deviations are similar when comparing to a delayed SFRD, and even larger (up to ∼10×) when comparing to SFRD-based models scaled to the local merger rate. Interestingly, our simulations find that the BBH delay time distribution is redshift dependent, increasing the complexity of the redshift distribution of mergers. We find similar results for simulated merger rates of black hole–neutron stars (BHNSs) and binary neutron stars (BNSs). We conclude that the rate of BBH, BHNS, and BNS mergers from the isolated channel can significantly deviate from a scaled SFRD, and that future measurements of the merger rate will provide insights into the formation pathways of gravitational-wave sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Population inference of gravitational-wave catalogues is a useful tool to translate observations of black hole mergers into constraints on compact-binary formation. Different formation channels predict identifiable signatures in the astrophysical distributions of source parameters, such as masses and spins. One example within the scenario of isolated binary evolution is mass-ratio reversal: even assuming efficient core–envelope coupling in massive stars and tidal spin-up of the stellar companion by the first-born black hole, a compact binary with a lighter, non-spinning first-born black hole and a heavier, spinning second-born black hole can still form through mass transfer from the initially more to less massive progenitor. Using current LIGO/Virgo observations, we measure the fraction of sources in the underlying population with this mass–spin combination and interpret it as a constraint on the occurrence of mass-ratio reversal in massive binary stars. We modify commonly used population models by including negligible-spin subpopulations and, most crucially, non-identical component spin distributions. We do not find evidence for subpopulations of black holes with negligible spins and measure the fraction of massive binary stars undergoing mass-ratio reversal to be consistent with zero and |$\lt 32{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| (⁠|$99{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$| confidence). The dimensionless spin peaks around 0.2–0.3 appear robust, however, and are yet to be explained by progenitor formation scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...

Making the most of the rapidly increasing population of gravitational-wave detections of black hole (BH) and neutron star (NS) mergers requires comparing observations with population synthesis predictions. In this work, we investigate the combined impact from the key uncertainties in population synthesis modelling of the isolated binary evolution channel: the physical processes in massive binary-star evolution and the star formation history as a function of metallicity, Z , and redshift z , |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$|⁠. Considering these uncertainties, we create 560 different publicly available model realizations and calculate the rate and distribution characteristics of detectable BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS mergers. We find that our stellar evolution and |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| variations can combined impact the predicted intrinsic and detectable merger rates by factors in the range 102–104. We find that BHBH rates are dominantly impacted by |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| variations, NSNS rates by stellar evolution variations and BHNS rates by both. We then consider the combined impact from all uncertainties considered in this work on the detectable mass distribution shapes (chirp mass, individual masses, and mass ratio). We find that the BHNS mass distributions are predominantly impacted by massive binary-star evolution changes. For BHBH and NSNS, we find that both uncertainties are important. We also find that the shape of the delay time and birth metallicity distributions are typically dominated by the choice of |$\mathcal {S}(Z,z)$| for BHBH, BHNS, and NSNS. We identify several examples of robust features in the mass distributions predicted by all 560 models, such that we expect more than 95 per cent of BHBH detections to contain a BH |$\gtrsim 8\, \rm {M}_{\odot }$| and have mass ratios ≲ 4. Our work demonstrates that it is essential to consider a wide range of allowed models to study double compact object merger rates and properties. Conversely, larger observed samples could allow us to decipher currently unconstrained stages of stellar and binary evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] more...