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A detailed understanding of the impact of climate variability on fish life histories provides a fundamental basis for the ecosystem approach to fisheries management. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between fish life-history trait parameters and climate periods, using survey data from 2006−2020 for the Beibu Gulf of the northwestern South China Sea, a fishing ground with high commercial and ecological value. We show that climate events can significantly alter the structure of the life history for major commercial fishes, with more diverse life-history strategies during warm events and more concentrated mortality during cold events. Additionally, we detected special relationships between climate events and the life-history trait composite index (LTCI) in Psenopsis anomala and Trichiurus lepturus. It is possible that other indicators would be more appropriate than variability in Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), such as variation in fishing effort or the environmental resistance of fish. Anthropogenic disturbance and biological features may also help explain the magnitude of population variability. We found that changes in life-history traits of only a few commercial fishes (Decapterus maruadsi, Pennahia macrocephalus, and Upeneus sulphureus) were related to the shift in climate periods; these fishes were generally characterized by faster growth and higher mortality rates in the normal and El Niño periods, with the opposite trends in La Niña periods. However, the emergence of climate events has led to a clear complementarity of life-history strategies among some fish in the same ecological niche (same genus and/or feeding group), which may be explained by a balance between habitat conditions and fishing pressures. This study of fish life-history strategies under climate anomalies provides key insights into important attributes for managers to consider when implementing relevant measures to promote fisheries sustainability in the subtropical bay.

Long-term variations in population structure, growth, mortality, exploitation rate, and recruitment pattern of two major commercial small pelagic fishes (CSPFs) (Decapterus maruadsi and Trachurus japonicus) are reported based on bottom trawl survey data collected during 2006–2020 in the Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. All individuals collected during each sampling quarter over a period of 15 years were subjected to laboratory-based analysis. In this study, the stock of D. maruadsi and T. japonicus inhabiting the Beibu Gulf was assessed using length-based methods (bootstrapped electronic length frequency analysis (ELEFAN)) to complete stock assessment in different fishery management periods (the division of fisheries management periods was based on China’s input and output in the South China Sea offshore fisheries over 15 years, specifically divided into period I (2006–2010), period II (2011–2015), and period III (2016–2020)). The results showed that the mean body length, dominant body size, and estimated asymptotic length of two CSPFs decreased, whereas their growth coefficient decreased, indicating miniaturization and slower growth, respectively. Estimated exploitation rates and catching body length for two CSPFs indicated that both stocks in the Beibu Gulf were overexploited in period I and moderately exploited after 2011. These stocks were taking a good turn in status in period III, with the exploitation rate much lower than the initial period and reversing the downward trend in catching body length. Furthermore, the variations in the spawning season of the two CSPF stocks and their barely satisfactory expected yield indicated the complexity of the current fishery management in the Beibu Gulf. These results suggest that management measures to reduce fishing pressure may have a positive influence on the biological characteristics of those CSPFs in the Beibu Gulf; however, the stock structure already affected by overfishing will be a huge challenge for the conservation and restoration of fisheries resources in the future. Given that the current stocks of D. maruadsi and T. japonicus in the Beibu Gulf still have low first-capture body length (Lc) and high fishing mortality (F) (compared to F0.1), we identify a need to refine population structure by controlling fishing efforts and increasing catchable size, and more consideration should be given to the local fishery resource status in fisheries management.

Marine ecosystems are a primary conservation concern because of the separate and synergistic effects of overfishing and climate change on their productivity and biodiversity. For the purpose of implementing ecosystem-based fisheries management, it is essential to understand how fish stocks respond to climate change in marine ecosystems, especially those that have been overexploited. The Beibu Gulf in the northwestern part of the South China Sea has long been one of China’s major fishing grounds. After the collapse of the demersal ecosystem in 1990 s, small pelagic fishes, including Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) and Japanese scad (Decapterus maruadsi), have occupied a more-important ecological niche in this gulf. However, insufficient research on how small pelagic fish respond to climate change creates great uncertainty for implementing the current management measures. This study used fish data of trawl surveys and environmental data to investigate possible mechanisms leading to dramatic fluctuations in small pelagic fish populations and their possible effects on the Beibu Gulf marine ecosystem. Abnormal blooms of small pelagic fish, especially T. japonicus and D. maruadsi, occurred following four La Niña events (in 2007/2008, 2010/2011, 2011/2012, and 2020/2021). Moreover, the dominant fish species shifted observably and regularly, Shannon–Wiener diversity and Pielou’s evenness decreased significantly in the northeastern coastal waters of the gulf, and the spatial pattern of the fish community was reorganized in this ecosystem. The small pelagic fish blooms in summers probably resulted from a combination of climate change, overfishing, and a summer fishing moratorium, which thereby caused a series of responses in the marine ecosystem. Fluctuations in the small pelagic fish populations after La Niña events seemed more dramatic after the collapse of demersal fish stocks. Therefore, we emphasize the need for implementing ecosystem-based, preventive, and adaptive fisheries management.

To better understand how fish communities respond to environmental changes under extreme climate events, we examine changes in fish communities in Beibu Gulf during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Strong La Niña and El Niño events affect the composition, abundance, and distribution of fish communities in Beibu Gulf. Fish community distribution and composition change before and after La Niña and El Niño events, and dominant species within them change with stable fishing intensity. The abundance and distribution of small pelagic fish such as Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) and Japanese scad (Decapterus maruadsi) are the most affected. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), we explore relationships between the abundance of T. japonicus and D. maruadsi and a suite of environmental variables. The GAM results revealed that sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature best explain changes in catch per unit effort of these two species during a La Niña event; depth, sea surface temperature, and mixed layer depth during an El Niño event. The results obtained in this study will offer support for implementing more-accurate, scientific fisheries management measures.

Improving prediction of ecological responses to climate variability requires understanding how local fish population dynamics are impacted by climate events. The present study was conducted in the Beibu Gulf of the northwestern South China Sea where the fisheries are characterized by high ecological and commercial value. We evaluated the relationship between major commercial fish population dynamics (abundance and distribution) and climate periods, using survey data from 2006–2020. The analysis using random forest and GAM models show that climate events are not the best predictors for the variations of fish abundance, because abundance of most fish stocks decreases significantly with the year, and the increasing fishing pressure over time can better explain the overall downward trend in fishery stocks. However, environmental variables that correlate significantly with interannual variation in ONI may impact fish abundance in short terms. Our research suggests that climate events leading to higher surface seawater salinity in winter favors pelagic fishes by improving habitat availability, and higher near-surface chlorophyll-α concentration during La Niña events provides better food condition for overwintering fish. In addition, there is no clear evidence that climatic events have a significant impact on gravity center of fish distribution, whereas climate change has caused most fishes to move to cooler coastal waters in the north.

The Beibu Gulf in the northwestern South China Sea is one of the world’s most productive fishing grounds, yet its biotic resources appear to be in rapid decline because of overexploitation. Assessments of the health status of the fisheries’ resources in the gulf provide a foundation for their conservation and management. As fish accounted for 84% to 97% of the total catch in the Beibu Gulf in the period 1962–2017, a Fish-based Index of Biotic Integrity (F-IBI) was developed for the Beibu Gulf, and data from otter trawl surveys during the period 1962–2017 were used to measure variations in the fish community. The assessment revealed a generally downward trend in total fish catch density (kg/km2), catch density of 12 traditional commercial demersal fish species, and percentage of nektonic-feeding species, but an upward trend for the percentage of fishes with a planktivorous or detritus diet, percentage of pelagic species, and percentage of the dominant species. The dominant species varied greatly over the 50 year period and showed a tendency towards small-sized species. The synthetic F-IBI variable showed a downward trend and has indicated a ‘fair’ state since 1998. The decline in the F-IBI over the last three decades suggests that anthropogenic disturbances, especially overfishing, have had a serious impact on the fish community of the Beibu Gulf. The F-IBI is currently at risk of becoming ‘poor.’ Consequently, we suggest that rigid and enforceable fishery management measures should be taken by both China and Vietnam to prevent further deterioration of the fisheries’ resources in the gulf.