Search

A Mid-Air Collision (MAC) is a fatal event with tragic consequences. To reduce the risk of a MAC, it is imperative to understand the precursors that trigger it. A primary precursor to a MAC is a loss of separation (LOS) or a separation infringement. This study develops a model to identify the factors contributing to a LOS between aircraft pairs. A Bayesian Network (BN) model is used to estimate the conditional dependencies of the factors affecting criticality, that is, how close the LOS has come to becoming a collision. This probabilistic model is built using GeNIe software from data (based on a database created from incident analysis) and expert judgment. The results of the model allow identification of how factors related to the scenario, the human factor (ATC and flight crew) or the technical systems, affect the criticality of the LOS. Based on this information, it is possible to exclude irrelevant elements that do not contribute or whose influence could be neglected, and to prioritize work on the most important ones, in order to increase ATM safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the International Air Transport Association, the industry fuel bill accounts for more than 25% of the annual airline operating costs. In times of severe economic constraints and increasing fuel costs, air carriers are looking for ways to reduce costs and improve fuel efficiency without putting flight safety into jeopardy. In particular, this is inducing discussions on how much additional fuel to put in a planned route to avoid diverting to an alternate airport due to Air Traffic Flow Management delays. We provide here a general model to support such decisions. We illustrate it with a case study and provide comparison with the current practice, showing the relevance of our approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]