1. Bayesian analysis of physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) modeling for pentachlorophenol exposure in pregnant women.
- Author
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Wu C, Tan Y, Wei X, Li X, Sun S, Lyu B, Shen Z, Wei X, Xiao S, Ruan Y, Yu J, He G, Zheng W, and Li J
- Subjects
- Female, Pregnancy, Humans, Animals, Environmental Pollutants toxicity, Environmental Pollutants pharmacokinetics, Rats, Bayes Theorem, Pentachlorophenol toxicity, Pentachlorophenol pharmacokinetics, Models, Biological, Toxicokinetics
- Abstract
Pentachlorophenol (PCP) is a persistent organic compound that is widely present in the environment. The estimation of internal exposure levels for a given external exposure using toxicokinetic models is key to the human health risk assessment of PCP. The present study developed a physiologically based multicompartmental pharmacokinetic (PBTK) model to describe and predict the behavior of pentachlorophenol (PCP) in an organism. The model consists of stomach, intestines, adipose tissue, kidneys and fast- and poorly perfused tissues that are interconnected via blood circulation. We constructed a PBTK model of PCP in rats and extrapolated it to human dietary PCP exposure. The toxicokinetic data of PCP in human tissues and excreta were obtained from the published literature. Based on the collected PCP dietary survey and internal exposure data of pregnant women in Shanghai, Bayesian statistical analysis was performed for the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The posterior distributions of the sensitive parameters were estimated, and the model was parameter optimized and validated using the pregnant women's test dataset. The results showed that the root mean square error (RMSE) improved 37.3% compared to the original model, and a systematic literature search revealed that the optimized model achieved acceptable prediction results for other datasets in China. A PCP metabolism model based on the exposure characteristics of pregnant women in China was constructed in the present study. The model provides a theoretical basis for the study of PCP toxicity and risk assessment., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the official position of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2024
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