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Objective: The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has a high rate of human transit as a result of tourism, human trafficking, and migration, which could contribute to the rate of HIV infection. The island is divided into 2 states - the northern portion is mainly populated by Turkish-Cypriots, and the southern portion is populated by Greek-Cypriots. The aim of this study was to assess the dynamics of HIV infection in both segments of Cyprus using a mathematical model. Materials and Methods: Data of HIV-positive individuals diagnosed during the period 1997-2018 in northern Cyprus were obtained from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health database, yielding a total of 129 cases, and data for the southern region, the Republic of Cyprus, were retrieved from a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2013 report and ECDC/World Health Organization 2017 data. The total number of reported HIV infections was 1057. A mathematical model was used to evaluate the current and future HIV infection rate. Results: Stability analysis of the equilibrium point - disease-free or endemic - was conducted using the Lyapunov function. The basic reproduction number, represented as R0, is a measure of the potential for disease spread and serves as a threshold for stability. The R0 value was 0.83 in northern Cyprus and 0.040 in southern Cyprus. An R0 indicated a disease-free equilibrium. Conclusion: The calculations suggest that there is no current HIV epidemic on either part of the island; however, the model predicted a significant increase in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we formulated a mathematical model that studies the dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Turkey from 1985 to 2016. We find two equilibrium points, disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Global stability analysis of the equilibria was conducted using Lyapunov function which depends on the basic reproduction ratio R0. If R0 < 1, the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, and if R0 ≥ 1 the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. We computed and predicted the basic reproduction ratios across all the years. It was found out that there were flaws in the exact values of R0 which is related to the poor registration system of HIV/AIDS in Turkey. Hence, there is need for the government to improve the system in order to cover the actual cases of the disease. The increase of the basic reproduction ratio over the years also shows the need for the relevant authorities to adopt appropriate control measures in combating the disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]