Search

In the presence of imperfect, or perturbed benchmarks, pricing based on relative valuation or arbitrage can be affected adversely. This study highlights persistent pricing irregularities in the Kansas City Value Line (KCVL) stock index futures market. This contract is especially interesting because the underlying benchmark underwent a midstream change in definition from a complex equally weighted geometric index to an equally weighted arithmetic index. Empirical analysis reveals that during a four-year period the market displayed herd-like behavior and priced the KCVL (Geometric) contract using the simple but wrong cost-of-carry benchmark model. A dramatic change occurs around the publication of the Eytan-Harpaz (1986) model when the market turns efficient from the perspective of this new model. The market appears to have succumbed initially to a bad information cascade primarily because arbitrage was difficult to understand and carry out under complex benchmarking. The evidence provides empirical extension to the observational social learning paradigms of Simon (1955), Banerjee (1992), and Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer, and Welch (1992) that lead to behavioral herding and information cascades., THE HIGH DEGREE to which modern markets are interconnected through arbitrage motivated trading warrants that we pay close attention to the robustness of pricing benchmarks. The quality of the linkage [...]

New tests, based on smooth transition autoregressive models, for mean reversion in time series of real exchange rates are proposed. One test forces mean reversion to be symmetric about the integrated process central case, while the other permits asymmetry. The tests are applied to monthly series of seventeen real exchange rates against the U.S. dollar and fourteen against the deutsche mark. They reveal stronger evidence against the unit root null hypothesis than does the usual Dickey-Fuller test., THE THEORETICAL IDEA of purchasing power parity, grounded in the 'law of one price,' is discussed by Rogoff (1996). This law states that, for any good i, [P.sub.i] = [EP.sup.*.sub.i], [...]

With commodity options, the jump-risk premia are found to respond to market volatility - the more volatile the market, the higher the risk premium.

A paper on interest rate caps and swaptions reveals that four factors influence swaption prices. Research results indicate that prices for long-term swaptions are overvalued.

CBOT's market in 30-year Treasury bonds is investigated to elucidate the information content in ambient noise. Research results indicate that noise conveys significant information in the market.

This paper investigates hedge fund and CTA volatility in light of hedge fund managers' concerns with both risk and returns. The success of a fund depends on its age, performance and excess volatility.

An obituary of Nobel Prize-winning economist Merton H. Miller that elucidates his seminal contributions to financial research is presented. Merton was a pioneer of economic research focusing on markets.

The authors present investment models for hedging in futures markets. Topics include cross-hedging pressures, price pressure, and underlying assets.

A cointegration framework is used to provide a new perspective on the efficiency of futures markets.