1. An Assessment of the ISM Manufacturing Price Index for Inflation Forecasting
- Author
-
Bognanni, Mark and Young, Tristan
- Subjects
Inflation (Economics) -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys ,Consumer price indexes -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys ,Consumption (Economics) -- Forecasts and trends -- Surveys ,Market trend/market analysis ,Banking, finance and accounting industries ,Business, general ,Business ,Economics - Abstract
The Institute for Supply Management produces a measure of pricing trends, the manufacturing price index or ISMPI, that is constructed from its periodic surveys of purchasing and supply executives. We investigate this measure's predictive content for producer and consumer price inflation by assessing its ability to improve inflation forecasts for three broad monthly inflation measures. We find that the ISMPI has some predictive content for producer prices but not for consumer prices., One of the timeliest inflation indicators available is the price index released as part of the monthly Manufacturing ISM Report on Business, which we will refer to as the ISMPI. [...]
- Published
- 2018