Search

Zambia faces its toughest economic challenges in at least a decade. The economy has come under strain in 2015 as external headwinds and domestic pressures have intensified. The main domestic risks are threefold. Firstly, that the power crisis will worsen. Secondly, a deterioration of confidence in the economy, leading to further weakening of the currency and increased levels of inflation. Lastly, a bad harvest that serves to increase food prices and reduce rural and agricultural incomes, with the greatest impact falling on the poorest households. Commodity-exporting countries’ policy makers face increasing challenges across the globe. Zambia is no exception and must grapple with multiple challenges as the economy slows down. Strengthening the fiscal position and restoring fiscal buffers are necessary to increase confidence in the economy, reduce the need for costly borrowing, and build resilience against further exogenous shocks. Economic progress since 2000, driven by mining production and services, has substantially increased the demand for electricity in Zambia. Key to note is that an increase in tariffs to cost-reflective levels is necessary but not sufficient to increase private investment in electricity generation in Zambia. The new generation capacity and emergency measures for 2016 will help in mitigating the impact of the power crisis in the coming year, but global experience shows there is no substitute for effective planning. Particular efforts are needed to improve sector planning and the procurement processes for large power projects.

It has been more than two decades since the widespread initiation of global power sector reforms and restructuring. However, empirical evidence on the intended microeconomic, macroeconomic, and quality-related impacts of reforms across developing countries is lacking. This paper comprehensively reviews the empirical and theoretical literature on the linkages between power sector reforms, economic and technical efficiency, and poverty reduction. The review finds that the extent of power sector reforms has varied across developing countries in terms of changes in market structures, the role of the state, and the regulation of the sector. Overall, the reforms have improved the efficiency and productivity in the sector among many reforming countries. However, the efficiency gains have not always reached the end consumers because of the inability of sector regulators and inadequate regulatory frameworks. Reforms alleviate poverty and promote the welfare of the poor only when the poor have access to electricity. From a policy-making perspective, this implies that the reforms need to be supplemented with additional measures for accelerating electrification to help the poor.

South Asian countries, facing challenges in efficiently meeting growing electricity demand, can benefit from increased cross-border electricity cooperation and trade by harnessing complementarities in electricity demand patterns, diversity in resource endowments for power generation, and gains from larger market access. The region has witnessed slow progress in expanding regional electricity cooperation and trade, and undertaking needed domestic sector reforms. Although bilateral electricity sector cooperation in the region is increasing, broader regional cooperation and trade initiatives have lagged in the face of regional barriers and domestic sector inefficiencies. Deeper electricity market reforms are not a necessity for further development of cross-border electricity trade, but limited progress in overcoming regional and domestic barriers will limit the scope of the regional market and the benefits it can provide.

Between 2000 and 2005 infrastructure made a modest net contribution of less than one percentage point to the improved per capita growth performance of the Central African Republic (CAR), despite high expenses in the road sector. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 3.5 percentage points. Assuming that the inefficiencies are fully captured, comparing spending needs against existing spending and potential efficiency gains leaves an annual funding gap of $183 million per year. By far the largest gap exists in transport. The CAR has the potential to close this gap by raising additional public funding for infrastructure from increased fiscal receipts of various kinds. Furthermore, the CAR has not captured as much private finance for infrastructure (measured as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP) as many of its neighbors. This scope for improvement, coupled with the prospect of an economic rebound and prudent policies, could lift the country from it fragile state back to and beyond the prosperity standards it once enjoyed.

The overall fiscal position of Bangladesh looks sustainable, but there are concerns that the country may be trapped in a low revenue-low capital spending equilibrium, which is holding back Bangladesh’s growth potential. Eliminating wasteful spending and halting fiscal drains through inefficient non-financial public corporations (NFPCs) are important ways to create fiscal space, particularly in the area of infrastructure. This paper reviews the financial performance of the NFPC sector in Bangladesh, with a specific focus on two major loss-making firms: Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) and Power Development Board (PDB). The objective of this paper is to update the Bank’s knowledge on the financial performance of the NFPC sector and estimate the fiscal costs emanating from the sector.