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Abstract: Back pain is a leading cause of disability worldwide and is common in older adults. No clinical prediction models for poor long-term outcomes have been developed in older patients with back pain. This study aimed to develop and internally validate 3 clinical prediction models for nonrecovery in this population. A prospective cohort study in general practice was conducted (Back Complaints in the Elders, Netherlands), including 675 patients >55 years with a new episode of care for back pain. Three definitions of nonrecovery were used combining 6-month and 12-month follow-up data: (1) persistent back pain, (2) persistent disability, and (3) perceived nonrecovery. Sample size calculation resulted in a maximum of 14 candidate predictors that were selected from back pain prognostic literature and clinical experience. Multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the models (backward selection procedure). Models' performance was evaluated with explained variance (Nagelkerke's R2), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) measures. The models were internally validated in 250 bootstrapped samples to correct for overoptimism. All 3 models displayed good overall performance during development and internal validation (ie, R2 > 30%; AUC > 0.77). The model predicting persistent disability performed best, showing good calibration, discrimination (AUC 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.83-0.89; optimism-adjusted AUC 0.85), and explained variance (R2 49%, optimism-adjusted R2 46%). Common predictors in all models were: age, chronic duration, disability, a recent back pain episode, and patients' recovery expectations. Spinal morning stiffness and pain during spinal rotation were included in 2 of 3 models. These models should be externally validated before being used in a clinical primary care setting., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the International Association for the Study of Pain.)

Introduction: Back pain is a prevalent health problem. Research often focuses on adults. Evidence on the long-term course of back pain in older patients is limited. A prospective cohort study (BACE) was conducted in a primary care setting in the Netherlands. We aim to investigate the 5-year course and medical consumption of older adults (>55 years) presenting with back pain in general practice., Methods: Patients aged >55 years, consulting their general practitioner with a new back pain episode, were included between 2009 to 2011. Follow-up questionnaires included, for example, pain severity, disability, quality of life, recovery, and medical consumption., Results: A total of 675 patients (mean age ± SD, 66.4 ± 7.6 years) participated, showing a mean (± SD) back pain reduction from 5.2 (± 2.7) to 3.6 (± 2.8) (numeric rating scale, 0 to 10) at 3 months follow-up; disability decreased from 9.8 (± 5.8) to 7.8 (± 6.2) (Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire, 0 to 24). After 6 months, this remained practically constant over time. Medical consumption was highest in the first months; medication was used by 72% at baseline and approximately one-third (25% to 39%) during follow-up. At 5-year follow-up (response rate 58%; n = 392), 43% had recovered; a majority reported persistent or recurrent back pain., Conclusion: Clinically relevant improvements in back pain intensity and disability were seen in the first 3 to 6 months of follow-up. A majority of patients does not become pain free within 3 months; this does not improve over 5 years. However, most patients stop consulting health care professionals during follow-up. Current medical strategies may not be sufficient in older back pain patients, where back pain becomes a recurrent or chronic condition in the majority of patients., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: none declared., (© Copyright 2019 by the American Board of Family Medicine.)

Background: although back pain is a frequently recurring disorder, the course of back pain remains uncertain. Therefore, this study aimed to identify different trajectories in older adults with back pain who presented in general practice and to determine which baseline characteristics are associated with these trajectories., Methods: the BACE study is a prospective cohort study including 675 patients (aged >55 years) with back pain who consulted a general practitioner; patients were followed for 3 years. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify different trajectories in back pain severity measured at eight different time points. A multinomial regression analysis was used to assess variables associated with membership of an identified trajectory., Results: using the different indices of fit and the usefulness of the different trajectories in clinical practice, a 3-class cubic model was determined to be the best model. The three trajectories were defined as 'low pain trajectory', 'high pain trajectory' and 'intermediate pain trajectory'. Baseline variables associated with a higher chance of being in the intermediate or high trajectory were: female gender, higher body mass index, chronic back pain, more disability, lower scores on the SF-36 physical summary scale, and negative expectations of recovery., Conclusions: three different back pain trajectories were identified in older adults presenting with back pain in general practice. Various baseline characteristics were associated with a higher chance of being in the high or intermediate back pain trajectory. These characteristics might help identify patients at risk for a less favourable outcome., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Biochemistry All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: In a small proportion of patients experiencing unspecified back pain, a specified underlying pathology is present., Objective: The purposes of this study were: (1) to identify the prevalence of physician-specified causes of back pain and (2) to assess associations between "red flags" and vertebral fractures, as diagnosed by the patients' general practitioner (GP), in older adults with back pain., Methods: The Back Complaints in the Elders (BACE) study is a prospective cohort study. Patients (aged >55 years) with back pain were included when consulting their GP. A questionnaire was administered and a physical examination and heel bone densitometry were performed, and the results determined back pain and patient characteristics, including red flags. Participants received a radiograph, and reports were sent to their GP. The final diagnoses established at 1 year were collected from the GP's patient registry., Results: Of the 669 participants included, 6% were diagnosed with a serious underlying pathology during the 1-year follow-up. Most of these participants (n=33, 5%) were diagnosed with a vertebral fracture. Multivariable regression analysis showed that age of ≥75 years, trauma, osteoporosis, a back pain intensity score of ≥7, and thoracic pain were associated with a higher chance of getting the diagnosis of a vertebral fracture. Of these variables, trauma showed the highest positive predictive value for vertebral fracture of 0.25 (95% confidence interval=0.09, 0.41) and a positive likelihood ratio of 6.2 (95% confidence interval=2.8, 13.5). A diagnostic prediction model including the 5 red flags did not increase these values., Limitations: Low prevalence of vertebral fractures could have led to findings by chance., Conclusions: In these older adults with back pain presenting in general practice, 6% were diagnosed with serious pathology, mainly a vertebral fracture (5%). Four red flags were associated with the presence of vertebral fracture., (© 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.)

Background: Older patients with back pain are more likely to visit their general practitioner (GP) and are more likely to be prescribed analgesics., Objective: To assess analgesic use in older adults with back pain in general practice., Methods: The BACE study in the Netherlands is a prospective cohort study. Patients (aged >55 years) with back complaints were recruited when consulting their GP or shortly thereafter. Measurements took place at baseline and at 3- and 6-month follow-up. For medication use, patients were asked if they had used any medication for their back pain in the previous 3 months and, if so, to specify the medication name, dosage used, frequency of usage, and whether the medication was prescribed or purchased over the counter., Results: Of the 1,402 patients who were approached to enter the study, 675 were included. Of these patients, 484 (72%) reported medication use at baseline. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (57%) were more often used than paracetamol (49%). Paracetamol was mostly obtained over the counter (69%), and NSAIDs were mostly obtained by prescription (85%). At baseline, patients with severe pain (numerical rating scale score ≥7) used more paracetamol, opioids, and muscle relaxants. Patients with chronic pain (back pain >3 months) used more paracetamol, while patients with a shorter duration of pain used more NSAIDs. During follow-up there was an overall decline in medication use; however, at 3- and 6-month follow-up, 36% and 30% of the patients, respectively, still used analgesics., Conclusions: In these older adults consulting their GP with back pain, 72% used analgesics at baseline. Despite a decrease in medication use during follow-up, at 3 and 6 months a considerable proportion still used analgesics., (Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

Objective: Neuropathic symptoms are reported in 16-55.6% of patients with back pain. Studies were performed in various populations; however, none focused on older adults. The aim of the study was to assess prevalence of neuropathic pain in older adults with back pain., Methods: Prevalence of neuropathic pain, measured with the Dolour Neuropathique en 4 questions (DN4), was assessed in the Back Complaints in the Elders study (Netherlands). Patients (>55 years) consulting their general practitioner with a new episode of back complaints were included. Two DN4-versions were used: one based on interview plus physical examination, the other based on interview alone. In the interview plus physical examination version, patients' and complaint characteristics were compared between groups with different scores (0, 1, 2, 3, and ≥4). The DN4 interview-version compared patients with negative and positive scores., Results: Of the 261 included patients available for analysis were 250 patients (95.8%) with the DN4 interview plus physical examination, and 259 patients (99.2%) with the DN4 interview. In DN4 interview plus physical examination (N = 250), five patients (2%) scored positive (score ≥4). Higher score was associated with pain radiating below the knee (P < 0.001) and use of paracetamol (P = 0.02). In DN4 interview (N = 259), 29 (11.2%) patients scored positive (score ≥3). Positive score was associated with higher body mass index (P = 0.01), pain radiating below the knee (P = 0.001), and use of paracetamol (P = 0.002)., Conclusions: In older adults with back pain presenting with a new episode in primary care, prevalence of neuropathic pain is low and seems to be associated with pain radiating below the knee, use of paracetamol, and higher body mass index., (© 2013 Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam. Pain Medicine © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

The aim of the current study was to determine the course of back pain in older patients and identify prognostic factors for non-recovery at 3 months' follow-up. We conducted a prospective cohort study (the BACE study) of patients aged >55 years visiting a general practitioner (GP) with a new episode of back pain in the Netherlands. The course of back pain was described in terms of self-perceived recovery, pain severity, disability, pain medication, and GP visits at 6 weeks' and 3 months' follow-up. Prognostic factors for non-recovery at 3 months' follow-up were derived from the baseline questionnaire and physical examination. Variables with a prognostic value were identified with multivariable logistic regression analysis (method backward), and an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated for the prognostic model. A total of 675 back pain patients (mean age 66.4 (SD 7.6) years) participated in the BACE cohort study. At 6 weeks' follow-up 64% of the patients reported non-recovery from back pain. At 3 months' follow-up 61% still reported non-recovery, but only 26% of these patients had revisited the GP. Longer duration of the back pain, severity of back pain, history of back pain, absence of radiating pain in the leg below the knee, number of comorbidities, patients' expectation of non-recovery, and a longer duration of the timed 'Up and Go' test were significantly associated with non-recovery in a multiple regression model (AUC 0.79). This information can help GPs identify older back pain patients at risk for non-recovery., (Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)