Search

Oceanic islands host a high proportion of the world's endemic species. Many such species are at risk of extinction owing to habitat degradation and loss, biological invasions and other threats, but little is known about the effects of climate change on island native biodiversity. The Azorean archipelago provides a unique opportunity to study species-climate-change relationships. We used ensemble forecasting to evaluate the current and future distribution of well-studied endemic and native bryophytes (19 species), endemic vascular plants (59 species) and endemic arthropods (128 species), for two of the largest Azorean Islands, Terceira and São Miguel. Using a Regional Climate Model (CIELO), and assuming the extreme scenario RCP8.5, we examined changes in the potential distributions of the species and possible loss of climate space for them. Models projected that 23 species (11 %) could lose all adequate climate on either one or both islands. Five additional species were projected to lose ≥90 % of climate space. In total, 90 % of the species were projected to lose climate space: 79 % of bryophytes, 93 % of vascular plants and 91 % of arthropods. We also found for vascular plants and arthropods a tendency for upward shift in altitude in their suitable climate space, while for bryophytes the shift was towards the coastal areas. Our results have profound implications for future conservation priorities on islands, such as for the redrawing of conservation borders of current protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carine & Schaefer ( Journal of Biogeography, 2010, 37, 77-89) suggest that the lack of past climate oscillations in the Azores may have contributed to the low plant endemism in this archipelago compared to that of the Canary Islands, a pattern they term the Azorean diversity enigma. Here we challenge their hypothesis, and discuss how the particular characteristics of the Azores may have driven current diversification patterns in this archipelago. We argue that the restricted number of Azorean endemic species and their wide distribution is explicable by the geological, geographical and ecological attributes of the archipelago. That is, the Azores are too young, too small, and too environmentally homogeneous to have hosted many in situ diversification events, so they do not host as many endemic species as other Macaronesian archipelagos, such as Madeira and especially the Canary Islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]