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Abstract Background The influenza surveillance has been received much attention in public health area. For the cases with excessive zeroes, the zero-inflated Poisson process is widely used. However, the traditional control charts based on zero-inflated Poisson model, ignore the association between influenza cases and risk factors, and thus may lead to unexpected mistakes when implementing monitoring charts. Method In this paper, we proposed risk-adjusted zero-inflated Poisson cumulative sum control charts, in which the risk factors were put to adjust the risk of influenza and the adjustment was made by zero-inflated Poisson regression. We respectively proposed the control chart monitoring the parameters individually and simultaneously. Results The performance of our proposed risk-adjusted zero-inflated Poisson cumulative sum control chart was evaluated and compared with the unadjusted standard cumulative sum control charts in simulation studies. The results show that for different distribution of impact factors and different coefficients, the risk-adjusted cumulative sum charts can generate much less false alarm than the standard ones. Finally, the influenza surveillance data from Hong Kong is used to illustrate the application of the proposed chart. Conclusions Our results suggest that the adjusted cumulative sum control chart we proposed is more accurate and credible than the unadjusted standard control charts because of the lower false alarm rate of the adjusted ones. Even the unadjusted control charts may signal a little faster than the adjusted ones, the alarm they raise may have low credibility since they also raise alarm frequently even the processes are in control. Thus we suggest using the risk-adjusted cumulative sum control charts to monitor the influenza surveillance data to alert accurately, credibly and relatively quickly.

In this research, we propose the new mixed control chart called the mixed Moving Average-Cumulative Sum (MA-CUSUM) control chart used for monitoring parameter changes in asymmetrical and symmetrical processes. Its efficiency was compared with that of the Shewhart, Cumulative Sum (CUSUM), Moving Average (MA), mixed Cumulative Sum-Moving Average (CUSUM-MA) and mixed Moving Average-Cumulative Sum (MA-CUSUM) control charts by using their average run lengths (ARLs), the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL), and median run length (MRL) via the Monte Carlo simulation (MC). The simulation results show that the MA-CUSUM control chart was more efficient than the other control charts for small-to-moderate parameter changes for all distributions tested. To compare their applicability to real-world situations, the control charts were applied to data for the River Nile flow from 1871–1930 and mine explosions in the UK from 1875–1951. It was found that the MACUSUM control chart could more quickly detect parameter changes than the other control charts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A cumulative sum control chart for multivariate Poisson distribution (MP-CUSUM) is proposed. The MP-CUSUM chart is constructed based on log-likelihood ratios with in-control parameters, Θ0, and shifts to be detected quickly, Θ1. The average run length (ARL) values are obtained using a Markov Chain-based method. Numerical experiments show that the MP-CUSUM chart is effective in detecting parameter shifts in terms of ARL. The MP-CUSUM chart with smaller Θ1is more sensitive than that with greater Θ1to smaller shifts, but more insensitive to greater shifts. A comparison shows that the proposed MP-CUSUM chart outperforms an existing MP chart. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Cumulative sum control charts (CUSUM) are constructed for controlling the parameters of the binomial distribution when the underlying distribution is Poisson. It is observed that the parameters of the V-mask and the Average Run Length (ARL) change considerably for a slight shift in the parameters (or ratio) of the distribution understudy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]