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Considering that the cohort effect is added to the population mortality prediction model, the data information on the impact of birth year on mortality can be captured. In this article, the Linear Link model (LL) is extended to obtain the Extended Linear Link model (ELL) with cohort effect. Model fitting and forecasting employ a two-stage approach, first estimating the age term parameters of the extended model, and then forecasting the time parameters using an optimal combination ARIMA(p,d,q) of time series model. Using the mortality data of the Chinese population aged 0–89 from 1995 to 2018 to fit and predict the model, and to test the stability by rolling-window time frame. The results show that when the singular value decomposition method and the least square estimation method are adopted, the prediction effect of the Extended Linear Link model with cohort effect is significantly better than the previous Linear Link model, and the accuracy of fitting and predicting are improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a result of archaeological studies, a large series of anthropological material was obtained, which made it possible to characterize in detail the characteristics of the Russian Astrakhan population in the XVI–XX centuries. A paleodemographic analysis was carried out using materials from the necropolis of the XVI–XIX centuries from the Annunciation Monastery in Astrakhan. The methodology of J.Angel (1969) was used. The total number of individuals was 350. 270 skeletons belonged to adults, 80 – to children. This group was characterized by a rather high average life expectancy (29.3 years), a low percentage of child mortality (22.9%), including in the first year of life. The first peak of mortality occurred in the 0–5 age cohort, the second – at the age of 30–35 years. In general, the authors can ascertain the phenomenon of relative demographic well-being in the study group.

The average life expectancy (ALE) of persons with disabilities (PWDs) is much shorter than that of the total population in many countries. However, there have been relatively few empirical studies on the ALE of PWDs in China. This study estimates the ALE and compiles the life tables of PWDs in China using data on 1,359,812 PWDs registered in the Special Surveys of Basic Services and Needs of the Disabled (SSBSND) in K Province in China from 2015 to 2017. The ALE of PWDs at age 20 is 45.2 years (95% CI: 44.7–45.8) for men and 48.1 years (95% CI: 47.6–48.6) for women, which is 15.0 years (men) and 16.5 years (women) lower than that of the entire population. The ALE of those with the most severe disability is only 33.7 years (95% CI: 32.2–45.1) for men and 37.1 years (95% CI: 35.3–38.8) for women. The ALE is relatively short for persons with intellectual and physical disabilities; moderate for those with hearing, speech, and mental disabilities; and relatively long for those with visual and multiple disabilities. Of the PWDs participating in basic old-age insurance (BOI), more than 30% do not live long enough to receive their pensions. As such, because a large proportion of PWDs die before 60 years old, social policies for PWDs should be specially designed.

Sağlık teknolojilerinde yaşanan gelişmeler ve sağlık hizmetlerinde yapılan iyileştirmelerle ortalama yaşam süresi yıldan yıla artmaktadır. Ortalama yaşam süresinin gelişmiş ülkelerde gelişmekte olan ülkelere göre daha fazla olduğu, kadınlarda ise erkeklere göre ortalama yaşam süresinin daha yüksek olduğu görülmektedir. Ortalama yaşam süresini etkileyen birçok faktör bulunduğundan bu çalışmada cinsiyete özgü yaşam süresini etkilediği düşünülen sosyo-ekonomik faktörler incelenmiştir. Bu kapsamda Dünya Bankası gelir sınıflandırmasına göre üst-orta gelir grubunda yer alan ülkelerin cinsiyete özgü ortalama yaşam sürelerinin sosyo-ekonomik göstergeler ile ilişkisini incelemek amacıyla panel veri analizi yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmada üst-orta gelir grubunda yer alan 54 ülkeden verilerine ulaşılabilen 40 ülke analiz edilmiş ve Dünya Bankası veri tabanından alınan ülkelere ait 1991-2020 yılları arasındaki veriler kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda enflasyon, işsizlik ve nüfus artışının ortalama yaşam süresi üzerinde negatif bir etkisinin olduğu, kişi başı gelir ve ekonomik büyümenin ise ortalama yaşam süresini pozitif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca ortalama yaşam süresini olumlu yönde en fazla etkileyen faktörün ekonomik büyüme olduğu görülmüştür.

Today, despite the decrease in agricultural areas, problems such as the continuous increase in population, poverty, pandemic, wars and global warming made food insecurity and access to clean water resources even more important. Thus, the effect of not having enough food on the average life expectancy was investigated. In the study, panel data analysis method was used and 58 countries in low and low-middle income groups were analyzed. In the study, panel data analysis method was used and 58 countries in low and low-middle income groups were analyzed. In this direction, it is aimed to determine what kind and in what direction indicators related to access to insufficient food have on the average life expectancy. As a result of the research, it is predicted that a 1% increase in the rate of malnourished population may cause a 0.04% decrease in the average life expectancy, a 1% increase in depth of food deficit may cause in a 0.09% decrease in average life expectancy, a 1% increase in extreme poverty may cause in a 0.18% decrease in average life expectancy. Finally, no significant relationship was found between the number of unsafe water-related deaths and the average life expectancy among the total deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute / Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi is the property of Journal of Selcuk University Social Sciences Institute and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article features a paleodemographic analysis of three necropolises of the 17th–18th centuries located in the historical center of Nizhny Novgorod. All three necropolises yielded different results in terms of life expectancy, infant mortality, and mortality peaks. Thus, the group from the Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin had the lowest life expectancy, and the group from the necropolis on Verkhnevolzhskaya Street had the highest value. A fairly high infant mortality rate, especially at the age of up to 5 years, is also observed in the group from the Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin. The necropolis from the Nizhny Novgorod Kremlin near the Uspensky Cathedral is very different from the suburban ones studied in this work in terms of the composition of the population group having formed the necropolis.

Introduction. Improving the quality of the population is an important task for socio-economic development of the Russian Federation as a whole, as well as for its individual regions. Improvements in quality characteristics of the population can only be achieved by raising the quality and standard of living. The aim of this study is to identify the dependence of the quality of the population on the level of socio-economic development in a region and on the solution of socio-demographic problems (taking the Penza Region as an example). Materials and Methods. An analysis of statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service for the Russian Federation and the Penza Region for 2005‒2018 was carried out. The methods of systems approach, comparative and demographic analysis, generalization, and statistical analysis were used to study the quality of population at the regional level. Results. Based on the analysis of primary statistical data, a high level of dependence of the quality of population of the Penza Region on demographic and socio-economic indicators of the region’s development has been identified and substantiated. The quality of the population of the Penza Region has been compared with other regions of Russia at the current stage and over time. The changes in the quality of population have revealed positive trends: an increase in the overall birth rate, reduction in the overall mortality rate, increasing natural growth rate of the population and life expectancy, growth of educational level of the population. At the same time, the natural growth rate of the population of the Penza Region has been much lower than the average level in Russia and below the indicators in the majority of constituent entities of the Volga Federal District, which is the most acute problem. Discussion and Conclusion. To date, the quality of the population of the Penza Region is a consequence of the increase in the level and quality of life in the region over the past 15 years, but in many respects it remains below the average Russian level. The results of this study can be used by the government of the Penza Region and other constituent entities of the Russian Federation when making decisions in the field of demographic and socio-economic policies.

Abstract Background Four decades of population-based tobacco control strategies have contributed to substantial reduction in smoking prevalence in Australia. However, smoking prevalence is still double in socially disadvantaged groups compared to those that are not. But not all tobacco control strategies successfully used in the general population is effective in specific high-risk population groups. Hence, an effective way to reduce smoking in high risk population groups may include targeting them specifically to identify and support smokers to quit. In this backdrop, we examined whether tobacco control interventions at the population-level are more effective in increasing life expectancy among Australians compared to interventions targeting a high risk group or a combination of the two when smoking prevalence is reduced to 10 and 0% respectively. Methods Using the risk percentiles approach, analyses were performed separately for men and women using data from various sources such as the 2014–15 National Health Survey linked to death registry, simulated data for high risk groups, and the Australian population and deaths data from the census. Indigenous status was simulated by preferentially assigning those who are indigenous to lower SES quintiles. The age-sex distribution of mental disorder status was simulated using its distribution from 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey with 25.9% of mentally ill being assigned to current smoking category and the rest to non-smoking category. The age-sex distribution of prisoners was simulated based on 2014 ABS Prisoners Australia survey with 74% of prisoners being assigned to current smoker category and the rest to non-smoker category. Homelessness status was simulated according to age, sex and indigenous status for 2011 census with all homeless being allocated to the lowest SES category. The age-sex distribution of total cholesterol level was simulated based on 2011–13 Australian Health Survey. Results The results showed that the combined approach for reducing smoking is most effective for improving life expectancy of Australians particularly for the socially disadvantaged and mentally ill groups both of which have high fraction of smokers in the population. For those who were mentally ill the gain in ALE due to reduction of smoking to 10% was 0.53 years for males and 0.36 years for females which were around 51 and 42% respectively of the maximal gains in ALE that could be achieved through complete cessation. Conclusions Targeting high-risk population groups having substantial fraction of smokers in the population can strongly complement the existing population-based smoking reduction strategies. As population and high risk approaches are both important, the national prevention policies should make judicious use of both to maximize health gain.

Mortality associated with mental disorders has been estimated using metrics such as mortality rate ratios and life expectancy. However, the variation around the average life expectancy has never been quantified. The main aim of this study was to measure life disparity for people with mental disorders as a measure of inequality at the time of death.Using data from Danish registries, average life disparity was introduced and calculated to measure the lifespan variation associated with major types of mental disorders. Average life expectancy is also reported for completeness.Compared with the general population, people with mental disorders not only had shorter average life expectancy, but experienced larger average life disparity. For those diagnosed with a mental disorder, average life expectancy increased between 1995 and 2021; however, average life disparity declined in women only, and did not change for men. In addition, the differences in both metrics between those with mental disorders and the general population were largest for substance use disorders and schizophrenia spectrum disorders. For these disorders, the differences even increased during the study period. Mortality rates for individuals with mental disorders have been declining in recent decades in Denmark; however, the increase in the average life disparity emphasizes the increasing heterogeneity and inequality in lifespans within this group, which requires measures to promote a longer and more equal life for those with mental disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why has Japan become the longest-lived country in the world? The longevity is often attributed to Japan's economic growth, but Japan experienced an extended life expectancy prior to achieving such economic growth. During and after the Second World War when the General Headquarters of the Supreme Commander for the Allied Powers was occupying Japan, the welfare administration system was drastically reformed, resulting in dramatic improvements in the hygiene status, which led to an increase in the average life expectancy in Japan. Here, this background is reviewed, along with an explanation of how Japan has become the world's longest-lived country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Stratum Plus Journal is the property of P.P. Stratum plus and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Four decades of population-based tobacco control strategies have contributed to substantial reduction in smoking prevalence in Australia. However, smoking prevalence is still double in socially disadvantaged groups compared to those that are not. But not all tobacco control strategies successfully used in the general population is effective in specific high-risk population groups. Hence, an effective way to reduce smoking in high risk population groups may include targeting them specifically to identify and support smokers to quit. In this backdrop, we examined whether tobacco control interventions at the population-level are more effective in increasing life expectancy among Australians compared to interventions targeting a high risk group or a combination of the two when smoking prevalence is reduced to 10 and 0% respectively.Methods: Using the risk percentiles approach, analyses were performed separately for men and women using data from various sources such as the 2014-15 National Health Survey linked to death registry, simulated data for high risk groups, and the Australian population and deaths data from the census. Indigenous status was simulated by preferentially assigning those who are indigenous to lower SES quintiles. The age-sex distribution of mental disorder status was simulated using its distribution from 2016 National Drug Strategy Household Survey with 25.9% of mentally ill being assigned to current smoking category and the rest to non-smoking category. The age-sex distribution of prisoners was simulated based on 2014 ABS Prisoners Australia survey with 74% of prisoners being assigned to current smoker category and the rest to non-smoker category. Homelessness status was simulated according to age, sex and indigenous status for 2011 census with all homeless being allocated to the lowest SES category. The age-sex distribution of total cholesterol level was simulated based on 2011-13 Australian Health Survey.Results: The results showed that the combined approach for reducing smoking is most effective for improving life expectancy of Australians particularly for the socially disadvantaged and mentally ill groups both of which have high fraction of smokers in the population. For those who were mentally ill the gain in ALE due to reduction of smoking to 10% was 0.53 years for males and 0.36 years for females which were around 51 and 42% respectively of the maximal gains in ALE that could be achieved through complete cessation.Conclusions: Targeting high-risk population groups having substantial fraction of smokers in the population can strongly complement the existing population-based smoking reduction strategies. As population and high risk approaches are both important, the national prevention policies should make judicious use of both to maximize health gain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Academic and political debates across the globe have greatly voiced the challenge of undefined costs resulting from the defined-benefit pension system. The most important cause, which resulted in the cash crunch of defined-benefit pension payments, stemmed from the rise in the old-age dependency ratio and increase in the average life expectancy. According to United Nations population projections (2015), in Pakistan, the old-age dependency ratio [i.e., 61+/20-60] is expected to lift from 12.6 percent to 21.7 percent of the total population by 2050. The life expectancy, which is expected years of life at birth given current death rates, has also been lifted from 54 in 1970 to 66 in 2015. These changes in population structures will have far-reaching economic and social implications and is very alarming. Although, in Pakistan, population ageing is still at its nascent stage, but will result in many challenges ahead. The results of current study also confirm that there is long-run as well as short-run association of both government pension expenditures and general provident funds with increase in average life expectancy, old-age dependency ratio and total population of the country. Therefore, the intended incremental contributions of the study for policy makers are very much clear based on the results presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SUMMARY Influence of income from pensions on life expectancy was described in several articles in medical journals and research reports. Present study tried to verify this association in the Czech population of 65 years of age. However, only a very low correlation was found in men and medium correlation in women between regional averages of pension income and life expectancy with limited statistical significance. On the contrary, the percentage of higher educated significantly correlated with life expectancy in both men and women and determined life expectancy by about 40%. The author discusses the low effect of pensions income on life expectancy of elderly people in this study and points out the possible influence of the methodology used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective To evaluate the population health for disease prevention and control in Shanghai Minhang District of Shanghai the data of mortality from 1993 to 2015 and communicable diseases from 2002 to 2015.Methods We adopted descriptive epidemiological method to analyze the trends of average life expectancy (ALE),specific death rate and causes of death cis-position from 1993 to 2015,and the incident rates of communicable diseases,incidence trends in Minhang District from 2002 to 2015.Results Overall,the ALE of population in Minhang District increased 11.80 years from 1993 to 2015 (from 71.78 years in 1993 to 83.58 years in 2015),including the ALE of male population increased 14.03 years (from 67.43 years in 1993 to 81.37 years in 2015) and the ALE of female population elevated 9.67 years (from 76.22 years in 1993 to 85.89 years in 2015).In 2015,Crude death rate (CDR) was 755.35/105,which was 21.45% higher than in 1993 and 2.71% higher than in 2014,respectively.In the same year,standardized mortality rate (SMR) was 196.07/105,which was 54.17% lower than in 1993 and 0.51% lower than in 2014.The top five leading causes of death were circulatory system diseases,tumors,respiratory diseases,endocrine and metabolic diseases,and injury and poisoning,which contributed 91.33% of the population death.From 2002 to 2015,a total of 23 kinds of notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Minhang District,including 62 845 cumulative cases and 152 cases died.The total reported incidence rate of communicable diseases sharply elevated by 291.98% during 14 years (Z=10 943.83,P＜0.001),and it increased after standardized.The top five communicable diseases were hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD),scarlet fever,syphilis,tuberculosis and hepatitis B in 2015.Conclusions Over the years,Minhang District of Shanghai comprehensive implemented “health in all policies” by integrating the resources of all levels of regional healthcare institutions.The ALE of the residents was at a high level.The control and prevention of chronic non-communicable diseases and major communicable diseases will continue to be the priority of public health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]