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Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant cardiometabolic disease processes interact and combine to lead to adverse events, such as stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death. Circulating biomolecules provide quantifiable proxies for cardiometabolic disease processes. The aim of this study was to test whether biomolecule combinations can define phenotypes in patients with AF., Methods and Results: This pre-specified analysis of the EAST-AFNET 4 biomolecule study assigned patients to clusters using polytomous variable latent-class analysis based on baseline concentrations of 13 precisely quantified biomolecules potentially reflecting ageing, cardiac fibrosis, metabolic dysfunction, oxidative stress, cardiac load, endothelial dysfunction, and inflammation. In each cluster, rates of cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure or acute coronary syndrome, the primary outcome of EAST-AFNET 4, were calculated and compared between clusters over median 5.1 years follow-up. Findings were independently validated in a prospective cohort of 748 patients with AF (BBC-AF; median follow-up 2.9 years).Unsupervised biomolecule analysis assigned 1586 patients (71 years old, 46% women) into four clusters. The highest risk cluster was dominated by elevated bone morphogenetic protein 10, insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, angiopoietin 2, and growth differentiation factor 15. Patients in the lowest risk cluster showed low concentrations of these biomolecules. Two intermediate-risk clusters differed by high or low concentrations of C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, and D-dimer. Patients in the highest risk cluster had a five-fold higher cardiovascular event rate than patients in the low-risk cluster. Early rhythm control was effective across clusters (Pinteraction = 0.63). Sensitivity analyses and external validation in BBC-AF replicated clusters and risk gradients., Conclusion: Biomolecule concentrations identify cardiometabolic subphenotypes in patients with AF at high and low cardiovascular risk., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: W.C. is now an employee of ICF (www.icf.com). Both W.C. and V.R.C. performed the work described here while employed by the University of Birmingham. A.J.C. receives personal funds from Acesion, Incarda, Menarini, Milestone, Sanofi, Bayer, Anthos, Daiichi Sankyo, Pfizer, Abbott, Biosense Webster, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Medtronic, and Johnson & Johnson. P.T.E. receives sponsored research support from Bayer AG, IBM Research, Bristol Myers Squibb, Pfizer, and Novo Nordisk; P.T.E. has also served on advisory boards or consulted for Bayer AG. H.J.G.M.C. discloses advisory board fees from InCarda Therapeutics, Roche Diagnostics, Daiichi Sankyo, Sanofi, Acesion, and Atricure. Speaker fee from Medtronic. U.S. received consultancy fees or honoraria from Università della Svizzera Italiana (USI, Switzerland) and Roche Diagnostics (Switzerland). U.S. was supported by a grant from EP Solutions Inc. (Switzerland) and is co-founder and shareholder of YourRhythmics BV, a spin-off company of the University of Maastricht. C.M. has received speaker fees from AstraZeneca, Novartis, Boehringer Ingelheim/Lilly, Bayer, Pfizer, Sanofi, Aventis, Apontis, and Abbott outside of this work. C.M. has participated in advisory boards for Boehringer Ingelheim and Novo Nordisk. R.B.S. has received lecture fees and advisory board fees from BMS/Pfizer and Bayer outside of this work. L.F. received institutional research grants by EU 633196 (CATCH-ME) and EU 965286 (MAESTRIA). British Heart Foundation (AA/18/2/34218), German Center for Cardiovascular Research, supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (DZHK), and several biomedical companies active in the field of research. L.F. is listed as inventor on two issued patents held by the employing institution (Atrial Fibrillation Therapy WO 2015140571, Markers for Atrial Fibrillation WO 2016012783). P.K. received research support for basic, translational, and clinical research projects from the European Union, British Heart Foundation, Leducq Foundation, Medical Research Council (UK), and German Center for Cardiovascular Research, from several drug and device companies active in AF, and has received honoraria from several such companies in the past, but not in the last 3 years. P.K. is listed as an inventor on two issued patents held by the institution (Atrial Fibrillation Therapy WO 2015140571, Markers for Atrial Fibrillation WO 2016012783)., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Background: Even on optimal therapy, many patients with heart failure and atrial fibrillation experience cardiovascular complications. Additional treatments are needed to reduce these events, especially in patients with heart failure and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction., Methods: This prespecified subanalysis of the randomized EAST-AFNET4 trial (Early Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation for Stroke Prevention Trial) assessed the effect of systematic, early rhythm control therapy (ERC; using antiarrhythmic drugs or catheter ablation) compared with usual care (allowing rhythm control therapy to improve symptoms) on the 2 primary outcomes of the trial and on selected secondary outcomes in patients with heart failure, defined as heart failure symptoms New York Heart Association II to III or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] <50%., Results: This analysis included 798 patients (300 [37.6%] female, median age 71.0 [64.0, 76.0] years, 785 with known LVEF). The majority of patients (n=442) had heart failure and preserved LVEF (LVEF≥50%; mean LVEF 61±6.3%), the others had heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (n=211; LVEF 40%-49%; mean LVEF 44 ± 2.9%) or heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (n=132; LVEF<40%; mean LVEF 31±5.5%). Over the 5.1-year median follow-up, the composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, stroke, or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure or for acute coronary syndrome occurred less often in patients randomly assigned to ERC (94/396; 5.7 per 100 patient-years) compared with patients randomly assigned to usual care (130/402; 7.9 per 100 patient-years; hazard ratio, 0.74 [0.56-0.97]; P =0.03), not altered by heart failure status (interaction P value=0.63). The primary safety outcome (death, stroke, or serious adverse events related to rhythm control therapy) occurred in 71 of 396 (17.9%) patients with heart failure randomly assigned to ERC and in 87 of 402 (21.6%) patients with heart failure randomly assigned to usual care (hazard ratio, 0.85 [0.62-1.17]; P =0.33). LVEF improved in both groups (LVEF change at 2 years: ERC 5.3±11.6%, usual care 4.9±11.6%, P =0.43). ERC also improved the composite outcome of death or hospitalization for worsening of heart failure., Conclusions: Rhythm control therapy conveys clinical benefit when initiated within 1 year of diagnosing atrial fibrillation in patients with signs or symptoms of heart failure. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01288352. URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com; Unique identifier: ISRCTN04708680. URL: https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu; Unique identifier: 2010-021258-20.

Aims: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts., Methods and Results: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF., Conclusions: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Background Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality. Methods and Results In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk. Conclusions Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

Aims: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality., Methods and Results: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001)., Conclusion: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Sex differences in cardiovascular risk factors, cardiac structure and function, and disease and symptom burden in the common arrhythmia atrial fibrillation (AF) have not been investigated systematically at the population level. Cross-sectional data of 14,796 subjects (age range 35 to 74 years, 50.5% men) from the population-based Gutenberg Health Study were examined to show the distribution of cardiovascular risk factors by AF status and sex, and to determine sex-specific predictors for AF. The prevalence of AF was higher in men (4.3%) than in women (1.9%). Men had a worse cardiovascular risk factor profile, a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease, but fewer symptoms than women. Age-adjusted Cox regressions showed sex interactions in the association of high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, triglycerides, diabetes mellitus, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, generalized anxiety disorder, and heart rate with AF. After multivariable adjustment, sex interactions were seen for thickness of interventricular end-diastolic septum, odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD), 95% confidence interval women: 0.9 (0.8, 1.1), men: 1.2 (1.1, 1.4), interaction p value = 0.02; left atrial diameter index, OR per SD women: 1.5 (1.3, 1.8), men: 1.9 (1.7, 2.1), interaction p value = 0.03; and myocardial infarction, OR women: 2.7 (1.3, 5.6), men: 0.7 (0.5, 1.1), interaction p value = 0.002. In conclusion, in our large cohort, we observed substantial sex differences in AF distribution and clinical characteristics including comorbidities, symptom burden, and structural cardiac changes., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac disease in aging populations with high comorbidity and mortality. Sex differences in AF epidemiology are insufficiently understood., Methods: In N=79 793 individuals without AF diagnosis at baseline (median age, 49.6 years; age range, 24.1-97.6 years; 51.7% women) from 4 community-based European studies (FINRISK, DanMONICA, Moli-sani Northern Sweden) of the BiomarCaRE consortium (Biomarker for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe), we examined AF incidence, its association with mortality, common risk factors, biomarkers, and prevalent cardiovascular disease, and their attributable risk by sex. Median follow-up time was 12.6 (to a maximum of 28.2) years., Results: Fewer AF cases were observed in women (N=1796; 4.4%), than in men (N=2465; 6.4%). Cardiovascular risk factor distribution and lipid profile at baseline were less beneficial in men than in women, and cardiovascular disease was more prevalent in men. Cumulative incidence increased markedly after the age of 50 years in men and after 60 years in women. The lifetime risk was similar (>30%) for both sexes. Subjects with incident AF had a 3.5-fold risk of death in comparison with those without AF. Multivariable-adjusted models showed sex differences for the association of body mass index and AF (hazard ratio per standard deviation increase, 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.23 in women versus 1.31; 95% CI 1.25-1.38 in men; interaction P value of 0.001). Total cholesterol was inversely associated with incident AF with a greater risk reduction in women (hazard ratio per SD, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.81-0.90 versus 0.92; 95% CI, 0.88-0.97 in men; interaction P value of 0.023). No sex differences were seen for C-reactive protein and N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide. The population-attributable risk of all risk factors combined was 41.9% in women and 46.0% in men. About 20% of the risk was observed for body mass index., Conclusions: Lifetime risk of AF was high, and AF was strongly associated with increased mortality both in women and men. Body mass index explained the largest proportion of AF risk. Observed sex differences in the association of body mass index and total cholesterol with AF need to be evaluated for underlying pathophysiology and relevance to sex-specific prevention strategies., (© 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.)