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Background: Deep neural networks have been used to estimate age from ECGs, the electrocardiographic age (ECG-age), which predicts adverse outcomes. However, this prediction ability has been restricted to clinical settings or relatively short periods. We hypothesized that ECG-age is associated with death and cardiovascular outcomes in the long-standing community-based FHS (Framingham Heart Study)., Methods: We tested the association of ECG-age with chronological age in the FHS cohorts in ECGs from 1986 to 2021. We calculated the gap between chronological and ECG-age (Δage) and classified individuals as having normal, accelerated, or decelerated aging, if Δage was within, higher, or lower than the mean absolute error of the model, respectively. We assessed the associations of Δage, accelerated and decelerated aging with death or cardiovascular outcomes (atrial fibrillation, myocardial infarction, and heart failure) using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, and clinical factors., Results: The study population included 9877 FHS participants (mean age, 55±13 years; 54.9% women) with 34 948 ECGs. ECG-age was correlated to chronological age (r=0.81; mean absolute error, 9±7 years). After 17±8 years of follow-up, every 10-year increase of Δage was associated with 18% increase in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.23]), 23% increase in atrial fibrillation risk (HR, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.17-1.29]), 14% increase in myocardial infarction risk (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.05-1.23]), and 40% increase in heart failure risk (HR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.30-1.52]), in multivariable models. In addition, accelerated aging was associated with a 28% increase in all-cause mortality (HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.14-1.45]), whereas decelerated aging was associated with a 16% decrease (HR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.74-0.95])., Conclusions: ECG-age was highly correlated with chronological age in FHS. The difference between ECG-age and chronological age was associated with death, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and heart failure. Given the wide availability and low cost of ECG, ECG-age could be a scalable biomarker of cardiovascular risk., Competing Interests: Disclosures None.

Background The American Heart Association's framework "ideal cardiovascular health" (CVH) focuses on modifiable risk factors to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD). Metabolomics provides important pathobiological insights into risk factors and CVD development. We hypothesized that metabolomic signatures associate with CVH status, and that metabolites, at least partially, mediate the association of CVH score with atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF). Methods and Results We studied 3056 adults in the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) cohort to evaluate CVH score and incident outcomes of AF and HF. Metabolomics data were available in 2059 participants; mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the mediation of metabolites in the association of CVH score and incident AF and HF. In the smaller cohort (mean age, 54 years; 53% women), CVH score was associated with 144 metabolites, with 64 metabolites shared across key cardiometabolic components (body mass index, blood pressure, and fasting blood glucose) of the CVH score. In mediation analyses, 3 metabolites (glycerol, cholesterol ester 16:1, and phosphatidylcholine 32:1) mediated the association of CVH score with incident AF. Seven metabolites (glycerol, isocitrate, asparagine, glutamine, indole-3-proprionate, phosphatidylcholine C36:4, and lysophosphatidylcholine 18:2), partly mediated the association between CVH score and incident HF in multivariable-adjusted models. Conclusions Most metabolites that associated with CVH score were shared the most among 3 cardiometabolic components. Three main pathways: (1) alanine, glutamine, and glutamate metabolism; (2) citric acid cycle metabolism; and (3) glycerolipid metabolism mediated CVH score with HF. Metabolomics provides insights into how ideal CVH status contributes to the development of AF and HF.

Lifetime risk measures the cumulative risk for developing a disease over one's lifespan. Modeling the lifetime risk must account for left truncation, the competing risk of death, and inference at a fixed age. In addition, statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk should account for covariate-outcome associations that change with age. In this paper, we review and compare statistical methods to predict the lifetime risk. We first consider a generalized linear model for the lifetime risk using pseudo-observations of the Aalen-Johansen estimator at a fixed age, allowing for left truncation. We also consider modeling the subdistribution hazard with Fine-Gray and Royston-Parmar flexible parametric models in left truncated data with time-covariate interactions, and using these models to predict lifetime risk. In simulation studies, we found the pseudo-observation approach had the least bias, particularly in settings with crossing or converging cumulative incidence curves. We illustrate our method by modeling the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation in the Framingham Heart Study. We provide technical guidance to replicate all analyses in R., (© 2021. Springer Nature B.V.)

Background Prior studies relating proteomics markers to incident AF screened for limited numbers of proteins. Methods and Results We performed proteomics assays among participants from the Framingham Heart Study Offspring attending their fifth examination. Plasma protein levels (n=1373) were measured by the SOMAscan proteomic profiling platform. We used robust inference for the Cox proportional hazards model to relate each protein level with incident AF. In addition, we examined the association between AF-related genetic loci and levels of proteins associated with AF. Our study included 1885 participants (mean age 55±10 years, 54% women) who had proteomic profiles measured. A total of 349 participants developed AF during follow-up (mean follow-up 18.3 years). We observed that 8 proteins were significantly associated with incident AF after adjusting for age, sex, technical covariates, and correction for multiple testing ( P<0.05/1373=3.6×10 -5 ). After additional adjustments for clinical factors associated with AF, ADAMTS13 and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide remained significantly associated with the risk of incident AF (hazard ratio, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.88; and 1.44; 95% CI, 1.22-1.70, respectively; P<3.6×10 -5 for both). None of the 8 proteins were encoded by genes at AF-related genetic loci previously identified by genome-wide association studies. Conclusions We identified 8 proteins associated with risk of incident AF after adjustment for age and sex; 2 proteins were associated with AF after adjustment for AF risk factors. Future studies are needed to replicate our findings, identify whether the markers are mechanistically related to AF development, and whether they are clinically useful for identification of future AF risk.

Background: The long-term probability of developing atrial fibrillation (AF) considering genetic predisposition and clinical risk factor burden is unknown., Methods: We estimated the lifetime risk of AF in individuals from the community-based Framingham Heart Study. Polygenic risk for AF was derived using a score of ≈1000 AF-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Clinical risk factor burden was calculated for each individual using a validated risk score for incident AF comprised of height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking status, antihypertensive medication use, diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, and history of heart failure. We estimated the lifetime risk of AF within tertiles of polygenic and clinical risk., Results: Among 4606 participants without AF at 55 years of age, 580 developed incident AF (median follow-up, 9.4 years; 25th-75th percentile, 4.4-14.3 years). The lifetime risk of AF >55 years of age was 37.1% and was substantially influenced by both polygenic and clinical risk factor burden. Among individuals free of AF at 55 years of age, those in low-polygenic and clinical risk tertiles had a lifetime risk of AF of 22.3% (95% confidence interval, 15.4-9.1), whereas those in high-risk tertiles had a risk of 48.2% (95% confidence interval, 41.3-55.1). A lower clinical risk factor burden was associated with later AF onset after adjusting for genetic predisposition ( P <0.001)., Conclusions: In our community-based cohort, the lifetime risk of AF was 37%. Estimation of polygenic AF risk is feasible and together with clinical risk factor burden explains a substantial gradient in long-term AF risk., (© 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Obesity is an important risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and atrial fibrillation (AF). Less is known about the relations between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and AF. We sought to evaluate the association between fatty liver and prevalent and incident AF in the community., Methods and Results: We examined Framingham Heart Study participants who underwent a study-directed computed tomography scan, had hepatic steatosis (HS) evaluated, and did not report heavy alcohol use between 2002 and 2005. We evaluated cross-sectional associations between liver fat and prevalent AF with logistic regression models. We assessed the relations between liver fat and incident AF during 12-year follow-up with Cox proportional hazards models. Of 2122 participants (53% women; mean age, 59.0±9.6 years), 20% had HS. AF prevalence (n=62) among individuals with HS was 4% compared to 3% among those without HS. There was no significant association between HS (measured as continuous or dichotomous variables) and prevalent AF in age- and sex-adjusted or multivariable-adjusted models. Incidence of AF (n=153) among participants with and without HS was 8.7 cases and 7.8 cases per 1000 person-years, respectively. In age- and sex-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted models, there were no significant associations between continuous or dichotomous measures of HS and incident AF., Conclusions: In our community-based, longitudinal cohort study, liver fat by computed tomography scan was not significantly associated with increased prevalence or incidence of AF over 12 years of follow-up., (© 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a substantial genetic basis. Identification of individuals at greatest AF risk could minimize the incidence of cardioembolic stroke., Methods: To determine whether genetic data can stratify risk for development of AF, we examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and incident AF in 5 prospective studies comprising 18 919 individuals of European ancestry. We examined associations between AF genetic risk scores and ischemic stroke in a separate study of 509 ischemic stroke cases (202 cardioembolic [40%]) and 3028 referents. Scores were based on 11 to 719 common variants (≥5%) associated with AF at P values ranging from <1×10 -3 to <1×10 -8 in a prior independent genetic association study., Results: Incident AF occurred in 1032 individuals (5.5%). AF genetic risk scores were associated with new-onset AF after adjustment for clinical risk factors. The pooled hazard ratio for incident AF for the highest versus lowest quartile of genetic risk scores ranged from 1.28 (719 variants; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.46; P =1.5×10 -4 ) to 1.67 (25 variants; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-1.90; P =9.3×10 -15 ). Discrimination of combined clinical and genetic risk scores varied across studies and scores (maximum C statistic, 0.629-0.811; maximum ΔC statistic from clinical score alone, 0.009-0.017). AF genetic risk was associated with stroke in age- and sex-adjusted models. For example, individuals in the highest versus lowest quartile of a 127-variant score had a 2.49-fold increased odds of cardioembolic stroke (95% confidence interval, 1.39-4.58; P =2.7×10 -3 ). The effect persisted after the exclusion of individuals (n=70) with known AF (odds ratio, 2.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-4.40; P =0.01)., Conclusions: Comprehensive AF genetic risk scores were associated with incident AF beyond associations for clinical AF risk factors but offered small improvements in discrimination. AF genetic risk was also associated with cardioembolic stroke in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Efforts are warranted to determine whether AF genetic risk may improve identification of subclinical AF or help distinguish between stroke mechanisms., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, but little is known about the molecular mechanisms associated with AF arrhythmogenesis. DNA methylation is an important epigenetic mechanism that regulates gene expression and downstream biological processes. We hypothesize that DNA methylation might play an important role in the susceptibility to develop AF. A total of 2,639 participants from the Offspring Cohort of Framingham Heart Study were enrolled in the current study. These participants included 183 participants with prevalent AF and 220 with incident AF during up to 9 years follow up. Genome-wide methylation was profiled using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip on blood-derived DNA collected during the eighth examination cycle (2005-2008). Two CpG sites were significantly associated with prevalent AF, and five CpGs were associated with incident AF after correction for multiple testing (FDR < 0.05). Fourteen previously reported genome-wide significant AF-related SNP were each associated with at least one CpG site; the most significant association was rs6490029 at the CUX2 locus and cg10833066 (P = 9.5 × 10 -279 ). In summary, we performed genome-wide methylation profiling in a community-based cohort and identified seven methylation signatures associated with AF. Our study suggests that DNA methylation might play an important role in AF arrhythmogenesis.

Background: Alcohol consumption has been associated with atrial fibrillation (AF) in several epidemiologic studies, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We sought to test the hypothesis that an atrial myopathy, manifested by echocardiographic left atrial enlargement, explains the association between chronic alcohol use and AF., Methods and Results: We evaluated the relationship between cumulative alcohol consumption and risk of incident AF in 5220 Offspring and Original Framingham Heart Study participants (mean age 56.3 years, 54% women) with echocardiographic left atrial size measurements. The incidence of AF was 8.4 per 1000 person-years, with 1088 incident AF cases occurring over a median 6.0 years (25th-75th percentiles 4.0-8.7 years) of follow-up. After multivariable adjustment for potential confounders, every additional 10 g of alcohol per day (just under 1 drink per day) was associated with a 0.16 mm (95% CI, 0.10-0.21 mm) larger left atrial dimension. Also in multivariable adjusted analysis, every 10 g per day of alcohol consumed was associated with a 5% higher risk of developing new-onset AF (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09). An estimated 24% (95% CI, 8-75) of the association between alcohol and AF risk was explained by left atrial enlargement., Conclusions: Our study of a large, community-based sample identified alcohol consumption as a predictor of left atrial enlargement and subsequent incident AF. Left atrial enlargement may be an intermediate phenotype along the causal pathway linking long-term alcohol consumption to AF., (© 2016 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)

The relations of measures of arterial stiffness, pulsatile hemodynamic load, and endothelial dysfunction to atrial fibrillation (AF) remain poorly understood. To better understand the pathophysiology of AF, we examined associations between noninvasive measures of vascular function and new-onset AF. The study sample included participants aged ≥45 years from the Framingham Heart Study offspring and third-generation cohorts. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, we examined relations between incident AF and tonometry measures of arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), wave reflection (augmentation index), pressure pulsatility (central pulse pressure), endothelial function (flow-mediated dilation), resting brachial arterial diameter, and hyperemic flow. AF developed in 407/5797 participants in the tonometry sample and 270/3921 participants in the endothelial function sample during follow-up (median 7.1 years, maximum 10 years). Higher augmentation index (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.32; P=0.02), baseline brachial artery diameter (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.43; P=0.04), and lower flow-mediated dilation (hazard ratio, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.99; P=0.04) were associated with increased risk of incident AF. Central pulse pressure, when adjusted for age, sex, and hypertension (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.28; P=0.02) was associated with incident AF. Higher pulsatile load assessed by central pulse pressure and greater apparent wave reflection measured by augmentation index were associated with increased risk of incident AF. Vascular endothelial dysfunction may precede development of AF. These measures may be additional risk factors or markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease associated with increased risk of incident AF., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

The associations of long-term patterns of risk factors and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) are incompletely characterized. Among 4351 Framingham Study participants (mean age 50±11 years at baseline examination, 57% women) from the original and offspring cohorts, we defined longitudinal patterns, referred to as trajectories, of AF risk factors and a composite AF risk score using ≈16 years of data. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association of trajectories to 15-year risk of AF. During follow-up, 719 participants developed AF. Five distinct trajectory groups were identified for systolic blood pressure (BP): groups 1 and 2 (normotensive throughout), group 3 (prehypertensive), group 4 (hypertensive initially with decreasing BP), and group 5 (hypertensive and increasing BP). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, compared with group 1, groups 4 (hazard ratio 2.05; 95% confidence interval 1.24-3.37) and 5 (hazard ratio 1.95; 95% confidence interval 1.08-3.49) were associated with incident AF. Three trajectory groups were identified for antihypertensive treatment. Compared with the group with no treatment throughout, the other 2 groups were associated with increased risk of incident AF. Distinct trajectories for diastolic BP, smoking, diabetes mellitus, and the composite risk score were not associated with increased 15-year risk of AF. Longitudinal trajectories may distinguish how exposures related to AF contribute toward prospective AF risk. Distinct trajectory groups with persistently elevated systolic BP and longer antihypertensive treatment are associated with increased risk of incident AF., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) affects more than 33 million individuals worldwide and increases risks of stroke, heart failure, and death. The CHARGE-AF risk score was developed to predict incident AF in three American cohorts and it was validated in two European cohorts. The CHA2DS2-VASc risk score was derived to predict risk of stroke, peripheral embolism, and pulmonary embolism in individuals with AF, but it has been increasingly used for AF risk prediction. We compared CHARGE-AF risk score versus CHA2DS2-VASc risk score for incident AF risk in a community-based cohort., Methods and Results: We studied Framingham Heart Study participants aged 46 to 94 years without prevalent AF and with complete covariates. We predicted AF risk using Fine-Gray proportional sub-distribution hazards regression. We used the Wald χ(2) statistic for model fit, C-statistic for discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) χ(2) statistic for calibration. We included 9722 observations (mean age 63.9 ± 10.6 years, 56% women) from 4548 unique individuals: 752 (16.5%) developed incident AF and 793 (17.4%) died. The mean CHARGE-AF score was 12.0 ± 1.2 and the sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) for AF per unit increment was 2.15 (95% CI, 99-131%; P < .0001). The mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 2.0 ± 1.5 and the sHR for AF per unit increment was 1.43 (95% CI, 37%-51%; P < .0001). The CHARGE-AF model had better fit than CHA2DS2-VASc (Wald χ(2) = 403 vs 209, both with 1 df), improved discrimination (C-statistic = 0.75, 95% CI, 0.73-0.76 vs C-statistic = 0.71, 95% CI, 0.69-0.73), and better calibration (HL χ(2) = 5.6, P = .69 vs HL χ(2) = 28.5, P < .0001)., Conclusion: The CHARGE-AF risk score performed better than the CHA2DS2-VASc risk score at predicting AF in a community-based cohort., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: The epidemiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) without comorbidities, known as 'lone AF', is uncertain. Although it has been considered a benign condition, we hypothesized that it confers a worse prognosis compared with a matched sample without AF., Methods: We described the proportion of AF without comorbidities (clinical, subclinical cardiovascular disease and triggers) among the entire AF sample in Framingham Heart Study (FHS). We compared AF without comorbidities with typical AF, and age-, sex- and cohort-matched individuals without AF, using Cox proportional hazards analysis in relation to combined cardiovascular events (stroke, heart failure, myocardial infarction), and mortality., Results: Of 10,311 FHS participants, 1,961 were diagnosed with incident AF, among which 173 individuals had AF without comorbidities (47% women, mean age 71±12 years). AF without comorbidities had a prevalence of 1.7% of the entire cohort, and an annual incidence of 0.5 per 1000 person-years. During a median follow-up of 9.7 years after initial AF, 137 individuals with AF without comorbidities (79.2%) died and 141 individuals developed cardiovascular events (81.5%). AF without comorbidities had significantly lower mortality (HR 0.67, 95%CI 0.55-0.81, P < .001) and total cardiovascular events (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.55-0.80, P < .001) compared with typical AF. However, mortality (HR1.43, 95% CI 1.18-1.75, P < .001) and risk of total cardiovascular events (HR 1.73, 95% CI 1.39-2.16, P < .001) were higher than age-, sex-, and cohort-matched individuals without AF., Conclusions: The risk of cardiovascular outcomes and mortality among individuals with AF without comorbidities is lower than typical AF, but is significantly elevated compared with matched individuals without AF., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) frequently coexist and together confer an adverse prognosis. The association of AF with HF subtypes has not been well described. We sought to examine differences in the temporal association of AF and HF with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction., Methods and Results: We studied Framingham Heart Study participants with new-onset AF or HF between 1980 and 2012. Among 1737 individuals with new AF (mean age, 75±12 years; 48% women), more than one third (37%) had HF. Conversely, among 1166 individuals with new HF (mean age, 79±11 years; 53% women), more than half (57%) had AF. Prevalent AF was more strongly associated with incident HF with preserved ejection fraction (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.48-3.70; no AF as referent) versus HF with reduced ejection fraction (HR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.83-2.10), with a trend toward difference between HF subtypes (P for difference=0.06). Prevalent HF was associated with incident AF (HR, 2.18; 95% CI, 1.26-3.76; no HF as referent). The presence of both AF and HF portended greater mortality risk compared with neither condition, particularly among individuals with new HF with reduced ejection fraction and prevalent AF (HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 2.12-3.48) compared with new HF with preserved ejection fraction and prevalent AF (HR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.41-2.37; P for difference=0.02)., Conclusions: AF occurs in more than half of individuals with HF, and HF occurs in more than one third of individuals with AF. AF precedes and follows HF with both preserved and reduced ejection fraction, with some differences in temporal association and prognosis. Future studies focused on underlying mechanisms of these dual conditions are warranted., (© 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Background: Comprehensive long-term data on atrial fibrillation trends in men and women are scant. We aimed to provide such data through analysis of the Framingham cohort over 50 years., Methods: We investigated trends in incidence, prevalence, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation and its association with stroke and mortality after onset in 9511 participants enrolled in the Framingham Heart Study between 1958 and 2007. We analysed trends within 10 year groups (1958-67, 1968-77, 1978-87, 1988-97, and 1998-2007), stratified by sex., Findings: During 50 years of observation (202,417 person-years), 1544 cases of new-onset atrial fibrillation occurred (of whom 723 [47%] were women). Between 1958-67 and 1998-2007, age-adjusted prevalence of atrial fibrillation quadrupled from 20·4 to 96·2 cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 13·7 to 49·4 cases per 1000 person-years in women; age-adjusted incidence increased from 3·7 to 13·4 new cases per 1000 person-years in men and from 2·5 to 8·6 new cases per 1000 person-years in women (ptrend<0·0001 for all comparisons). For atrial fibrillation diagnosed by electrocardiograph (ECG) during routine Framingham examinations, age-adjusted prevalence per 1000 person-years increased (12·6 in 1958-67 to 25·7 in 1998-2007 in men, ptrend=0·0007; 8·1 to 11·8 in women, ptrend=0·009). However, age-adjusted incidence of atrial fibrillation by Framingham Heart Study ECGs did not change significantly with time. Although the prevalence of most risk factors changed over time, their associated hazards for atrial fibrillation changed little. Multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models revealed a 74% (95% CI 50-86%) decrease in stroke (hazards ratio [HR] 3·77, 95% CI 1·98-7·20 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·0001) and a 25% (95% CI -3-46%) decrease in mortality (HR 1·34, 95% CI 0·97-1·86 in 1958-1967 compared with 1998-2007; ptrend=0·003) in 20 years following atrial fibrillation onset., Interpretation: Trends of increased incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation in the community were probably partly due to enhanced surveillance. Measures are needed to enhance early detection of atrial fibrillation, through increased awareness coupled with targeted screening programmes and risk factor-specific prevention., Funding: NIH, NHLBI, NINDS, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Guidelines have proposed that atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur as an isolated event, particularly when precipitated by a secondary, or reversible, condition. However, knowledge of long-term AF outcomes after diagnosis during a secondary precipitant is limited., Methods and Results: In 1409 Framingham Heart Study participants with new-onset AF, we examined associations between first-detected AF episodes occurring with and without a secondary precipitant and both long-term AF recurrence and morbidity. We selected secondary precipitants based on guidelines (surgery, infection, acute myocardial infarction, thyrotoxicosis, acute alcohol consumption, acute pericardial disease, pulmonary embolism, or other acute pulmonary disease). Among 439 patients (31%) with AF diagnosed during a secondary precipitant, cardiothoracic surgery (n=131 [30%]), infection (n=102 [23%]), noncardiothoracic surgery (n=87 [20%]), and acute myocardial infarction (n=78 [18%]) were most common. AF recurred in 544 of 846 eligible individuals without permanent AF (5-, 10-, and 15-year recurrences of 42%, 56%, and 62% with versus 59%, 69%, and 71% without secondary precipitants; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.78]). Stroke risk (n=209/1262 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.57]) and mortality (n=1098/1409 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.15]) were similar between those with and without secondary precipitants, although heart failure risk was reduced (n=294/1107 at risk; hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.97])., Conclusions: AF recurs in most individuals, including those diagnosed with secondary precipitants. Long-term AF-related stroke and mortality risks were similar between individuals with and without secondary AF precipitants. Future studies may determine whether increased arrhythmia surveillance or adherence to general AF management principles in patients with reversible AF precipitants will reduce morbidity., (© 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.)

Aims: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) predict atrial fibrillation (AF) risk. However, their risk stratification abilities in the broad community remain uncertain. We sought to improve risk stratification for AF using biomarker information., Methods and Results: We ascertained AF incidence in 18 556 Whites and African Americans from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC, n=10 675), Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS, n = 5043), and Framingham Heart Study (FHS, n = 2838), followed for 5 years (prediction horizon). We added BNP (ARIC/CHS: N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; FHS: BNP), CRP, or both to a previously reported AF risk score, and assessed model calibration and predictive ability [C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI)]. We replicated models in two independent European cohorts: Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility Reykjavik Study (AGES), n = 4467; Rotterdam Study (RS), n = 3203. B-type natriuretic peptide and CRP were significantly associated with AF incidence (n = 1186): hazard ratio per 1-SD ln-transformed biomarker 1.66 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.56-1.76], P < 0.0001 and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.11-1.25), P < 0.0001, respectively. Model calibration was sufficient (BNP, χ(2) = 17.0; CRP, χ(2) = 10.5; BNP and CRP, χ(2) = 13.1). B-type natriuretic peptide improved the C-statistic from 0.765 to 0.790, yielded an IDI of 0.027 (95% CI, 0.022-0.032), a relative IDI of 41.5%, and a continuous NRI of 0.389 (95% CI, 0.322-0.455). The predictive ability of CRP was limited (C-statistic increment 0.003). B-type natriuretic peptide consistently improved prediction in AGES and RS., Conclusion: B-type natriuretic peptide, not CRP, substantially improved AF risk prediction beyond clinical factors in an independently replicated, heterogeneous population. B-type natriuretic peptide may serve as a benchmark to evaluate novel putative AF risk biomarkers., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology 2014. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) involves substantial electrophysiological, structural and contractile remodeling. We hypothesize that characterizing gene expression might uncover important pathways related to AF., Methods and Results: We performed genome-wide whole blood transcriptomic profiling (Affymetrix Human Exon 1.0 ST Array) of 2446 participants (mean age 66 ± 9 years, 55% women) from the Offspring cohort of Framingham Heart Study. The study included 177 participants with prevalent AF, 143 with incident AF during up to 7 years follow up, and 2126 participants with no AF. We identified seven genes statistically significantly up-regulated with prevalent AF. The most significant gene, PBX1 (P = 2.8 × 10(-7)), plays an important role in cardiovascular development. We integrated differential gene expression with gene-gene interaction information to identify several signaling pathways possibly involved in AF-related transcriptional regulation. We did not detect any statistically significant transcriptomic associations with incident AF., Conclusion: We examined associations of gene expression with AF in a large community-based cohort. Our study revealed several genes and signaling pathways that are potentially involved in AF-related transcriptional regulation.

Background: Galectin 3 (Gal-3) is a potential mediator of cardiac fibrosis, and Gal-3 concentrations predict incident heart failure. The same mechanisms that lead to cardiac fibrosis in heart failure may influence development of atrial fibrosis and atrial fibrillation (AF). We examined the association of Gal-3 and incident AF in the community., Methods: Plasma Gal-3 concentrations were measured in 3,306 participants of the Framingham Offspring cohort who attended the sixth examination cycle (1995-1998, mean age 58 years, 54% women). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association of baseline Gal-3 concentrations and incident AF., Results: Over a median follow-up period of 10 years, 250 participants developed incident AF. Crude incidence rates of AF by increasing sex-specific Gal-3 quartiles were 3.7%, 5.9%, 9.1%, and 11.5% (log-rank test P < .0001). In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, each 1-SD increase in loge-Gal-3 was associated with a 19% increased hazard of incident AF (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% CI 1.05-1.36, P = .009). This association was not significant after adjustment for traditional clinical AF risk factors (hazard ratio 1.12, 95% CI 0.98-1.28, P = .10)., Conclusion: Higher circulating Gal-3 concentrations were associated with increased risk of developing AF over the subsequent 10 years in age- and sex-adjusted analyses but not after accounting for other traditional clinical AF risk factors. Our results do not support a role for Gal-3 in AF risk prediction. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether Gal-3 plays a role in the development of AF substrate similar to HF., (Copyright © 2014 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: MicroRNA (miRNA) expression in atrial tissue has been implicated in pathologic susceptibility to atrial fibrillation (AF). Nevertheless, data on how circulating levels relate to AF are limited., Objective: The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that circulating miRNAs are associated with AF., Methods: Among 2445 Framingham Heart Study Offspring participants, we measured the expression of 385 circulating whole blood miRNAs by high-throughput quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. We related miRNA levels with prevalent and new-onset AF., Results: Mean age of the cohort was 66.3 ± 8.9 years, and 56% were women; 153 participants had clinically apparent AF at baseline, and 107 developed AF during median follow-up of 5.4 years. miRNA-328 (miR-328) expression was lower among participants with prevalent AF (8.76 cycle threshold) compared to individuals with no AF (7.75 cycle threshold, P <.001). The association between miR-328 and prevalent AF persisted after adjustment for age, sex, and technical covariates (odds ratio 1.21, P = 1.8 × 10(-4)) but was attenuated in analyses adjusting for clinical AF risk factors (odds ratio 1.14, P = .017). In contrast to the associations between miR-328 and prevalent AF, none of the circulating miRNAs were associated with incident AF., Conclusion: Circulating levels of miR-328, a miRNA known to promote atrial electrical remodeling by reducing L-type Ca(2+) channel density, were associated with prevalent AF. Adjustment for risk factors that promote atrial remodeling, including hypertension, attenuated the association between miR-328 and AF, potentially implicating miR-328 as a potential mediator of atrial remodeling and AF vulnerability., (Copyright © 2014 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: We investigated whether circulating concentrations of soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) are associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and whether these biomarkers improve current risk prediction models including AF risk factors, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), and C-reactive protein (CRP)., Methods: We studied the relation between soluble ST2, GDF-15, and hsTnI and development of AF in Framingham Heart Study participants without prevalent AF. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to examine the relation of incident AF during a 10-year follow-up period with each biomarker. We adjusted for standard AF clinical risk factors, BNP, and CRP., Results: The mean age of the 3,217 participants was 59 ± 10 years, and 54% were women. During a 10-year follow-up, 242 participants developed AF. In age- and sex-adjusted models, GDF-15 and hsTnI were associated with risk of incident AF; however, after including the AF risk factors and BNP and CRP, only hsTnI was significantly associated with AF (hazard ratio per 1 SD of loge hsTnI, 1.12, 95% CI 1.00-1.26, P = .045). The c statistic of the base model including AF risk factors, BNP, and CRP was 0.803 (95% CI 0.777-0.830) and did not improve by adding individual or all 3 biomarkers. None of the discrimination and reclassification statistics were significant compared with the base model., Conclusion: In a community-based cohort, circulating hsTnI concentrations were associated with incident AF. None of the novel biomarkers evaluated improved AF risk discrimination or reclassification beyond standard clinical AF risk factors and biomarkers., (© 2014.)

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) patterns and their relations with long-term prognosis are uncertain, partly because pattern definitions are challenging to implement in longitudinal data sets. We developed a novel AF classification algorithm and examined AF patterns and outcomes in the community., Methods and Results: We characterized AF patterns between 1980 and 2005 among Framingham Heart Study participants who survived ≥ 1 year after diagnosis. We classified participants based on their pattern within the first 2 years after detection as having AF without recurrence, recurrent AF, or sustained AF. We examined associations between AF patterns and 10-year survival using proportional hazards regression. Among 612 individuals with AF, mean age was 72.5 ± 10.8 years, and 53% were men. Of these, 478 participants had ≥ 2 electrocardiograms (median, 3; limits 2 to 23) within 2 years after initial AF and were classified as having AF without 2-year recurrence (n = 63, 10%), recurrent AF (n = 162, 26%) or sustained AF (n = 207, 34%), although some (n = 46, 8%) were indeterminate. Of 432 classified participants, 363 died, 75 had strokes, and 110 were diagnosed with heart failure during the next 10 years. Relative to individuals without AF recurrence, the multivariable-adjusted mortality was higher among people with recurrent AF (hazard ratio [HR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 to 3.29) and sustained AF (HR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.49 to 3.75)., Conclusions: In our community-based AF sample, only 10% had AF without early-term (2-year) recurrence. Compared with individuals without 2-year AF recurrences, the 10-year prognosis was worse for individuals with either sustained or recurrent AF. Our proposed AF classification algorithm may be applicable in longitudinal data sets.

Background: Tools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high-risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors., Methods and Results: Individual-level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment-Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5-year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C-statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, -0.0032; 95% CI, -0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C-statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C-statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate., Conclusion: A risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common and is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Vitamin D is an emerging risk factor in cardiovascular disease, and vitamin D status is modifiable. Thus, we sought to investigate whether vitamin D status predisposed to the development of AF in a community-based sample., Methods: We evaluated the relation between vitamin D status and development of AF in 2,930 participants of the Framingham Heart Study, Massachusetts, USA, without prevalent AF. The mean age was 65 ± 11 years, and 56% were women. Vitamin D status was assessed by measuring 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations. Multivariable Cox regression models were adjusted for AF risk factors and season., Results: During a mean follow-up of 9.9 years, 425 participants (15%) developed AF. In Cox proportional hazards models, 25(OH)D was not associated with development of AF, with a multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio of 0.99 per SD increment in 25(OH)D levels (95% CI 0.88-1.10, P = .81). Also, no relation was found in models including 25(OH)D as a dichotomous variable (above and below the cohort-specific 20th percentile; P = .59)., Conclusion: In our community-based sample, vitamin D status was not related to incident AF. Our data suggest that vitamin D deficiency does not promote the development of AF in the ambulatory setting., (Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Context: Although the heritability of atrial fibrillation (AF) is established, the contribution of familial AF to predicting new-onset AF remains unknown., Objective: To determine whether familial occurrence of AF is associated with new-onset AF beyond established risk factors., Design, Setting, and Participants: The Framingham Heart Study, a prospective community-based cohort study started in 1948. Original and Offspring Cohort participants were aged at least 30 years, were free of AF at the baseline examination, and had at least 1 parent or sibling enrolled in the study. The 4421 participants in this analysis (mean age, 54 [SD, 13] years; 54% women) were followed up through December 31, 2007., Main Outcome Measures: Incremental predictive value of incorporating different features of familial AF (any familial AF, premature familial AF [onset ≤65 years old], number of affected relatives, and youngest age of onset in a relative) into a risk model for new-onset AF., Results: Across 11,971 examinations during the period 1968-2007, 440 participants developed AF. Familial AF occurred among 1185 participants (26.8%) and premature familial AF occurred among 351 participants (7.9%). Atrial fibrillation occurred more frequently among participants with familial AF than without familial AF (unadjusted absolute event rates of 5.8% and 3.1%, respectively). The association was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.74) or reported AF-related genetic variants. Among the different features of familial AF examined, premature familial AF was associated with improved discrimination beyond traditional risk factors to the greatest extent (traditional risk factors, C statistic, 0.842 [95% CI, 0.826-0.858]; premature familial AF, C statistic, 0.846 [95% CI, 0.831-0.862]; P = .004). Modest changes in integrated discrimination improvement were observed with premature familial AF (2.1%). Net reclassification improvement (assessed using 8-year risk thresholds of <5%, 5%-10%, and >10%) did not change significantly with premature familial AF (index statistic, 0.011; 95% CI, -0.021 to 0.042; P = .51), although categoryless net reclassification was improved (index statistic, 0.127; 95% CI, 0.064-0.189; P = .009)., Conclusions: In this cohort, familial AF was associated with an increased risk of AF that was not attenuated by adjustment for AF risk factors including genetic variants. Assessment of premature familial AF was associated with a very slight increase in predictive accuracy compared with traditional risk factors.

Background: Biomarkers of multiple pathophysiological pathways have been related to incident atrial fibrillation (AF), but their predictive ability remains controversial., Methods and Results: In 3120 Framingham cohort participants (mean age 58.4+/-9.7 years, 54% women), we related 10 biomarkers that represented inflammation (C-reactive protein and fibrinogen), neurohormonal activation (B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] and N-terminal proatrial natriuretic peptide), oxidative stress (homocysteine), the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (renin and aldosterone), thrombosis and endothelial function (D-dimer and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1), and microvascular damage (urinary albumin excretion; n=2673) to incident AF (n=209, 40% women) over a median follow-up of 9.7 years (range 0.05 to 12.8 years). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, the biomarker panel was associated with incident AF (P<0.0001). In stepwise-selection models (P<0.01 for entry and retention), log-transformed BNP (hazard ratio per SD 1.62, 95% confidence interval 1.41 to 1.85, P<0.0001) and C-reactive protein (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.45, P=0.004) were chosen. The addition of BNP to variables recently combined in a risk score for AF increased the C-statistic from 0.78 (95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.81) to 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.83) and showed an integrated discrimination improvement of 0.03 (95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.04, P<0.0001), with 34.9% relative improvement in reclassification analysis. The combined analysis of BNP and C-reactive protein did not appreciably improve risk prediction over the model that incorporated BNP in addition to the risk factors., Conclusions: BNP is a predictor of incident AF and improves risk stratification based on well-established clinical risk factors. Whether knowledge of BNP concentrations may be used to target individuals at risk of AF for more intensive monitoring or primary prevention requires further investigation.

We conducted meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies for atrial fibrillation (AF) in participants from five community-based cohorts. Meta-analyses of 896 prevalent (15,768 referents) and 2,517 incident (21,337 referents) AF cases identified a new locus for AF (ZFHX3, rs2106261, risk ratio RR = 1.19; P = 2.3 x 10(-7)). We replicated this association in an independent cohort from the German AF Network (odds ratio = 1.44; P = 1.6 x 10(-11); combined RR = 1.25; combined P = 1.8 x 10(-15)).

Basic and clinical studies have suggested that inflammation predisposes to atrial fibrillation (AF). We assessed the association of 12 circulating inflammatory biomarkers (i.e., C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, interleukin-6, intercellular adhesion molecule-1, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 [mass and activity], monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, myeloperoxidase, CD40 ligand, osteoprotegerin, P-selectin, and tumor necrosis factor receptor II) with incident AF in 2863 Framingham Offspring Study participants (mean age 60.7 years, SD = 9.4, 55% women). During follow-up (median 6 years), 148 participants (43% women) developed incident AF. In the multivariable proportional hazards models, the inflammatory biomarker panel was associated with incident AF (p = 0.03). With stepwise selection (p <0.01 for entry and retention), log-transformed osteoprotegerin was associated with incident AF (hazard ratio per SD 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.56, p = 0.006). Adjusting for interim myocardial infarction or heart failure attenuated the association between osteoprotegerin and incident AF (hazard ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.43, p = 0.09). In conclusion, circulating osteoprotegerin concentration was significantly associated with incident AF in our community-based sample, possibly mediated by interim cardiovascular events.

Aims: A recent genome-wide association study identified a haplotype block on chromosome 4q25 associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). We sought to replicate this association in four independent cohorts., Methods and Results: The Framingham Heart Study and Rotterdam Study are community-based longitudinal studies. The Vanderbilt AF Registry and German AF Network (AFNet) are case-control studies. Participants with AF (n = 3508) were more likely to be male and were older than referent participants (n = 12 173; Framingham 82 +/- 10 vs. 71 +/- 13 years; Rotterdam 73 +/- 8 vs. 69 +/- 9 years; Vanderbilt 54 +/- 14 vs. 57 +/- 14 years; AFNet 62 +/- 12 vs. 49 +/- 14 years). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs2200733 was associated with AF in all four cohorts, with odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 1.37 in Rotterdam [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-1.59; P = 3.1 x 10(-5)] to 2.52 in AFNet (95% CI 2.22-2.8; P = 1.8 x 10(-49)). There also was a significant association between AF and rs10033464 in Framingham (OR 1.34; 95% CI 1.03-1.75; P = 0.031) and AFNet (OR 1.30; 95% CI 1.13-1.51; P = 0.0002), but not Vanderbilt (OR 1.16; 95% CI 0.86-1.56; P = 0.33). A meta-analysis of the current and prior AF studies revealed an OR of 1.90 (95% CI 1.60-2.26; P = 3.3 x 10(-13)) for rs2200733 and of 1.36 (95% CI 1.26-1.47; P = 6.7 x 10(-15)) for rs10033464., Conclusion: The non-coding SNPs rs2200733 and rs10033464 are strongly associated with AF in four cohorts of European descent. These results confirm the significant relations between AF and intergenic variants on chromosome 4.

Context: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality, making identification of modifiable risk factors a priority. Increased pulse pressure, a reflection of aortic stiffness, increases cardiac load and may increase AF risk., Objective: To examine relations between pulse pressure and incident AF., Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, community-based observational cohort in Framingham, Mass, including 5331 Framingham Heart Study participants aged 35 years and older and initially free from AF (median age, 57 years; 55% women)., Main Outcome Measures: Incident AF., Results: AF developed in 698 participants (13.1%) a median of 12 years after pulse pressure assessment. Cumulative 20-year AF incidence rates were 5.6% for pulse pressure of 40 mm Hg or less (25th percentile) and 23.3% for pulse pressure greater than 61 mm Hg (75th percentile). In models adjusted for age, sex, baseline and time-dependent change in mean arterial pressure, and clinical risk factors for AF (body mass index, smoking, valvular disease, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, hypertension treatment, and prevalent myocardial infarction or heart failure), pulse pressure was associated with increased risk for AF (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.26 per 20-mm Hg increment; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.43; P<.001). In contrast, mean arterial pressure was unrelated to incident AF (adjusted HR, 0.96 per 10-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 0.88-1.05; P = .39). Systolic pressure was related to AF (HR, 1.14 per 20-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 1.04-1.25; P = .006); however, if diastolic pressure was added, model fit improved and the diastolic relation was inverse (adjusted HR, 0.87 per 10-mm Hg increment; 95% CI, 0.78-0.96; P = .01), consistent with a pulse pressure effect. Among patients with interpretable echocardiographic images, the association between pulse pressure and AF persisted in models that adjusted for baseline left atrial dimension, left ventricular mass, and left ventricular fractional shortening (adjusted HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.09-1.39; P = .001)., Conclusion: Pulse pressure is an important risk factor for incident AF in a community-based sample. Further research is needed to determine whether interventions that reduce pulse pressure will limit the growing incidence of AF.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac dysrhythmia and a source of considerable morbidity and mortality, but lifetime risk for AF has not been estimated., Methods and Results: We included all participants in the Framingham Heart Study who were free of AF at index ages of 40 years and older. We estimated lifetime risks for AF (including atrial flutter) to age 95 years, with death free of AF as a competing event. We followed 3999 men and 4726 women from 1968 to 1999 (176 166 person-years); 936 participants had development of AF and 2621 died without prior AF. At age 40 years, lifetime risks for AF were 26.0% (95% CI, 24.0% to 27.0%) for men and 23.0% (21.0% to 24.0%) for women. Lifetime risks did not change substantially with increasing index age despite decreasing remaining years of life because AF incidence rose rapidly with advancing age. At age 80 years, lifetime risks for AF were 22.7% (20.1% to 24.1%) in men and 21.6% (19.3% to 22.7%) in women. In further analyses, counting only those who had development of AF without prior or concurrent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction, lifetime risks for AF were approximately 16%., Conclusions: Lifetime risks for development of AF are 1 in 4 for men and women 40 years of age and older. Lifetime risks for AF are high (1 in 6), even in the absence of antecedent congestive heart failure or myocardial infarction. These substantial lifetime risks underscore the major public health burden posed by AF and the need for further investigation into predisposing conditions, preventive strategies, and more effective therapies.

Background: Recent reports have indicated that autonomic tone fluctuations measured by heart rate variability (HRV) precede episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). Little is known about the impact of baseline autonomic tone and the development of new onset AF in a population-based cohort. The purpose of this study was to assess the role of HRV as a predictor of new onset AF., Method: Ambulatory ECG recordings obtained from the Framingham Heart Study subjects attending a routine examination were processed for HRV. The HRV variables analyzed included standard deviation of normal R-R intervals (SDNN), low frequency power (LF), high frequency power (HF), and LF/HF ratio. There were 1434 women and 1142 men (54 +/- 14.1 years) eligible for the study., Results: In 12 years of follow-up, 65 women and 67 men had new onset AF. The study had 80% power to detect a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 per standard deviation (SD) decrement in HRV. A one SD decrement in log LF/HF was associated with increased risk of developing AF (HR = 1.23; 95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.06-1.44) in age- and sex-adjusted models; the association was no longer significant (HR = 1.15; 95% CI = 0.98-1.35) after adjusting for potential confounders., Conclusion: Autonomic dysregulation at baseline, as reflected by an altered HRV is associated with risk of AF; however, this association does not persist after adjusting for potential confounders. Much of the apparent association between HRV and AF is mediated by traditional risk factors.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for stroke. Although acute alcohol intake has been associated with AF, it is not known whether long-term alcohol consumption in moderation is associated with an increased risk of AF. We used a risk set method to assess the relation of long-term alcohol consumption to the risk of AF among participants in the Framingham Study. For each case, up to 5 controls were selected and matched for age, age at baseline examination, sex, cohort, baseline history of hypertension, congestive heart failure, and myocardial infarction. Within each risk set, alcohol consumption was averaged from baseline until the examination preceding the index case of AF. Of the 1,055 cases of AF occurring during a follow-up of >50 years, 544 were men and 511 were women. In a conditional logistic regression with additional adjustment for systolic blood pressure, age at baseline examination, education, and cumulative history of myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, left ventricular hypertrophy, and valvular heart disease, the relative risks were 1.0 (reference), 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78 to 1.22), 1.06 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.38), 1.12 (95% CI 0.80 to 1.55), and 1.34 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.78) for alcohol categories of 0, 0.1 to 12, 12.1 to 24, 24.1 to 36, and >36 g/day, respectively. In conclusion, our data indicate little association between long-term moderate alcohol consumption and the risk of AF, but a significantly increased risk of AF among subjects consuming >36 g/day (approximatively >3 drinks/day).

Context: Prior risk stratification schemes for atrial fibrillation (AF) have been based on randomized trial cohorts or Medicare administrative databases, have included patients with established AF, and have focused on stroke as the principal outcome., Objective: To derive risk scores for stroke alone and stroke or death in community-based individuals with new-onset AF., Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective, community-based, observational cohort in Framingham, Mass. We identified 868 participants with new-onset AF, 705 of whom were not treated with warfarin at baseline. Risk scores for stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic) and stroke or death were developed with censoring when warfarin initiation occurred during follow-up. Event rates were examined in low-risk individuals, as defined by the risk score and 4 previously published risk schemes., Main Outcome Measures: Stroke and the combination of stroke or death., Results: During a mean follow-up of 4.0 years free of warfarin use, stroke alone occurred in 83 participants and stroke or death occurred in 382 participants. A risk score for stroke was derived that included the following risk predictors: advancing age, female sex, increasing systolic blood pressure, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack, and diabetes. With the risk score, 14.3% of the cohort had a predicted 5-year stroke rate < or =7.5% (average annual rate < or =1.5%), and 30.6% of the cohort had a predicted 5-year stroke rate < or =10% (average annual rate < or =2%). Actual stroke rates in these low-risk groups were 1.1 and 1.5 per 100 person-years, respectively. Previous risk schemes classified 6.4% to 17.3% of subjects as low risk, with actual stroke rates of 0.9 to 2.3 per 100 person-years. A risk score for stroke or death is also presented., Conclusion: These risk scores can be used to estimate the absolute risk of an adverse event in individuals with AF, which may be helpful in counseling patients and making treatment decisions.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and congestive heart failure (CHF) frequently occur together, but there is limited information regarding their temporal relations and the combined influence of these conditions on mortality., Methods and Results: We studied participants in the Framingham Study with new-onset AF or CHF. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent variables were used to evaluate whether mortality after AF or CHF was affected by the occurrence and timing of the other condition. Hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for time period and cardiovascular risk factors. During the study period, 1470 participants developed AF, CHF, or both. Among 382 individuals with both conditions, 38% had AF first, 41% had CHF first, and 21% had both diagnosed on the same day. The incidence of CHF among AF subjects was 33 per 1000 person-years, and the incidence of AF among CHF subjects was 54 per 1000 person-years. In AF subjects, the subsequent development of CHF was associated with increased mortality (men: HR 2.7; 95% CI, 1.9 to 3.7; women: HR 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2 to 4.2). Similarly, in CHF subjects, later development of AF was associated with increased mortality (men: HR 1.6; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.1; women: HR 2.7, 95% CI, 2.0 to 3.6). Preexisting CHF adversely affected survival in individuals with AF, but preexisting AF was not associated with adverse survival in those with CHF., Conclusions: Individuals with AF or CHF who subsequently develop the other condition have a poor prognosis. Additional studies addressing the pathogenesis, prevention, and optimal management of the joint occurrence of AF and CHF appear warranted.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is characterized by structural remodeling and atrial systolic failure. It is unclear if atrial filling abnormalities precede the onset of AF. We evaluated 942 Framingham Study subjects (587 women; mean age 75 years) who underwent Doppler echocardiographic evaluation at a routine examination and who did not have a history of AF. We used multivariable Cox regression models (stratified by gender and prevalent cardiovascular disease) to examine the relations of Doppler transmitral flow indexes (ratio of the velocity-time integrals of the early [E] and late [A] diastolic filling waves [VTI E/A], a correlate of atrial conduit function; E-wave deceleration time; the atrial filling fraction, an index of atrial systolic function; and peak A wave velocity) to the incidence of AF. At follow-up (mean 7 years), 85 subjects (41 women) developed AF. In models adjusting for established risk factors for AF (including left atrial size) at baseline, and for heart failure and myocardial infarction on follow-up, a 1 SD increment in VTI E/A was associated with a 28% increase in risk of AF (hazards ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.59). A 1 SD decrease in the atrial filling fraction was associated with a 28% higher risk of AF (hazards ratio 1.28, 95% confidence interval 0.98 to 1.67). There was a U-shaped relation between peak A-wave velocity and risk of AF. Thus, in our elderly community-based sample, increased VTI E/A and a low atrial filling fraction were markers of increased risk of AF, suggesting that altered atrial filling may antedate AF.

Background: Although structural heart disease is often present in patients with nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation, the echocardiographic precursors of atrial fibrillation have not been reported previously. In this elderly, population-based cohort, our objective was to examine prospectively the echocardiographic predictors of nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation., Methods and Results: Subjects in the Framingham Heart Study were routinely evaluated with M-mode echocardiography; 1924 subjects, ranging in age from 59 to 90 years, comprised the population at risk. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to analyze the association of selected echocardiographic features with atrial fibrillation risk after adjustment for age, sex, hypertension, coronary heart disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and valvular heart disease. During a mean follow-up interval of 7.2 years, 154 subjects (8.0%) developed atrial fibrillation. Multivariable stepwise analysis identified left atrial size (hazard ratio [HR] per 5-mm increment, 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14 to 1.68), left ventricular fractional shortening (HR per 5% decrement, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.66), and sum of septal and left ventricular posterior wall thickness (HR per 4-mm increment, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.60) as independent echocardiographic predictors of atrial fibrillation. For each of the echocardiographic predictors, risk increased progressively over successive quartiles. Moreover, risk increased markedly when highest-risk-quartile measurements for these features were present in combination; the cumulative 8-year age-adjusted atrial fibrillation rates were 7.3% and 17.0%, respectively, when one and two or more highest-risk-quartile features were present, compared with 3.7% when none was present., Conclusions: In this elderly, population-based sample, left atrial enlargement, increased left ventricular wall thickness, and reduced left ventricular fractional shortening were predictive of risk for nonrheumatic atrial fibrillation. These echocardiographic precursors offer prognostic information beyond that provided by traditional clinical atrial fibrillation risk factors.