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Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared.

Aims: To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors., Methods and Results: We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in 14 923 women and men (baseline mean age 45.8 years in women and 47.8 years in men) from the population-based Tromsø Study with a maximum of 22 years of follow-up (1994-2016). The estimated risk of AF under no intervention was 6.15% in women and 13.0% in men. This cumulative risk was reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 17%, 61%) in women and 14% (-7%, 30%) in men under joint interventions on all risk factors. The most effective intervention was lowering body mass index to ≤ 25 kg/m2, leading to a 16% (4%, 25%) lower risk in women and a 14% (6%, 23%) lower risk in men. We found significant sex-differences in the relative risk reduction by sufficient physical activity, leading to a 7% (-4%, 18%) lower risk in women and an 8% (-2%, -13%) increased risk in men. We found no association between the level of education and differences in risk reduction by any of the interventions., Conclusion: The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors. Namely, these modifications could have prevented 41% of AF cases in women and 14% of AF cases in men in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway during a maximum 22-year follow-up period., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury such as high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) may help close this gap., Methods: We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 45,298 participants (median age 51.4 years, 45.0% men) across European community cohorts in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (C-reactive protein, N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide)., Results: During a median follow-up of 7.7 years, 1734 (3.8%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest hsTnI quarter (≥4.2 ng/L) had a 3.91-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.30, 4.63; p < .01) risk for developing AF compared to the lowest quarter (<1.4 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models a statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF (hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in log10(hsTnI) 1.08; 95% CI 1.01, 1.16; p = .03). Inclusion of hsTnI did improve model discrimination (C-index CVRF 0.811 vs. C-index CVRF and hsTnI 0.813; p < .01). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with heart failure (HR per SD 1.37; 95% CI 1.12, 1.68; p < .01) and overall mortality (HR per SD 1.24; 95% CI 1.09, 1.41; p < .01)., Conclusion: hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRF and NT-proBNP. However, it is associated with the AF-related disease heart failure and mortality likely reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment., (© 2023 The Authors. European Journal of Clinical Investigation published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.)

Aims: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables., Methods and Results: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index., Conclusion: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: R.B.S. has received lecture fees and advisory board fees from BMS/Pfizer outside the submitted work. B.T. receives project-related funding by the German Heart Foundation and Ernst und Berta Grimmke-Stiftung unrelated to the submitted work. V.S. reports an honorarium for consulting from Sanofi. He also has research collaboration with Bayer Ltd (all unrelated to the present study). T.N. reports speaker honoraria from Servier outside the submitted work. S.S. received honoraria from Actelion (now Janssen) outside the submitted work. Furthermore, S.S. is a member of the advisory board of Actelion (now Janssen) and of Novartis. I.K. has received research grants by the Heart Foundation in Northern Sweden and Arnerska Research Foundation, both unrelated to the present study. S.B. reports honoraria to his institution from Abbott, Bayer, Siemens, Singulex, and Roche, outside the submitted work. S.B. also reports personal fees from Abbott, Bayer, Siemens, Novartis, Thermo Fisher, Astra Zeneca, AMGEN, Medtronic, and Pfizer. S.Co. has received honoraria for lecturing from The Dutch Beer Institute foundation—The Brewers of Europe, outside the submitted work. S.Co. and A.D.C. are the PI and Co-PI, respectively, of a research grant from ERAB (the European Foundation for Alcohol Research, EA 1767, completed in January 2020), which is unrelated to the present study. G.d.G. is a member of the International Scientific Forum on Alcohol Research. The members of the Forum receive no financial support. The Forum itself receives no support from any other organization or company in the alcoholic beverage industry. G.d.G. was also a consultant to the Web Newsletter of Assobirra, the Italian Association of the Beer and Malt Industries and is a corresponding member of the non-profit Accademia Italiana della Vite e del Vino. G.d.G. reports personal fees for given lectures at the 8th European Beer and Health Symposium (2017), Beer and Health Initiative (The Dutch Beer Institute Foundation—The Brewers of Europe), outside the submitted work. All remaining authors have declared no conflicts of interest., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Despite marked progress in the management of atrial fibrillation (AF), detecting AF remains difficult and AF-related complications cause unacceptable morbidity and mortality even on optimal current therapy. This document summarizes the key outcomes of the 8th AFNET/EHRA Consensus Conference of the Atrial Fibrillation NETwork (AFNET) and the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA). Eighty-three international experts met in Hamburg for 2 days in October 2021. Results of the interdisciplinary, hybrid discussions in breakout groups and the plenary based on recently published and unpublished observations are summarized in this consensus paper to support improved care for patients with AF by guiding prevention, individualized management, and research strategies. The main outcomes are (i) new evidence supports a simple, scalable, and pragmatic population-based AF screening pathway; (ii) rhythm management is evolving from therapy aimed at improving symptoms to an integrated domain in the prevention of AF-related outcomes, especially in patients with recently diagnosed AF; (iii) improved characterization of atrial cardiomyopathy may help to identify patients in need for therapy; (iv) standardized assessment of cognitive function in patients with AF could lead to improvement in patient outcomes; and (v) artificial intelligence (AI) can support all of the above aims, but requires advanced interdisciplinary knowledge and collaboration as well as a better medico-legal framework. Implementation of new evidence-based approaches to AF screening and rhythm management can improve outcomes in patients with AF. Additional benefits are possible with further efforts to identify and target atrial cardiomyopathy and cognitive impairment, which can be facilitated by AI., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: RBS has received lecture fees and advisory board fees from BMS/Pfizer outside this work and has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement No 648131, from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement No 847770 (AFFECT-EU) and German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK e.V.) (8121710103); German Ministry of Research and Education (BMBF 01ZX1408A) and ERACoSysMed3 (031L0239).EAM is employee of Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH producing and marketing an oral anticoagulant (edoxaban). EA has received consulting / speaker fees for Biosense Webster. GB has received speaker's fees of small amount from Boston, Bayer, Daiichi, Boehringer. SB is consultant for Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Microport, and Zoll. JC has received consulting fees / honoraria fees from Acesion, Allergan, Alta Thera, Arca, lncarda, Menarini, Milestone, Sanofi, Bayer, Daiichi Sankyo, Pfizer, Abbott, Biosense Webster, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Lilly, Medtronic, Johnson and Johnson. BC has received in kind contribution for research Support from iRhythm. WC has received advisory board fees for Roche Diagnostics AG. MDM is employee of Medtronic. SZB has received fees as member of Advisory Board in Bristol Myers Squibb-Pfizer. DD has received fees from Abbott, Astra Zenica, Bayer, Bosten Scientific, Bristol Myers Squibb-Pfizer, Medtonic, Zoll. LE has received lecture Honoria from Medtronic, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Boehringer Ingelheim, Daiichy Sankyo, Bayer, MMS, Pfizer, Sanofi and received research grants from DFG and DGK. CE is employee of Preventicus GmbH. LF has received institutional research grants and non-financial support from European Union, DFG, British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council (UK), NIHR, and several biomedical companies. The Institute of Cardiovascular Research, University of Birmingham, has received an Accelerator Award by the British Heart Foundation M/18/2/34218. LF is listed as inventor of two patents held by University of Birmingham (Atrial Fibrillation Therapy WO 2015140571, Markers for Atrial Fibrillation WO 2016012783). BF receiving fees from Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer Alliance, Bayer, Daiichi Sankyo, Omron. (largely speaker fees and travel support for speaking at session or official satellites of large international/continental society meetings) and investigator-initiated research grants to the institution from Bristol-Myers and Squibb and Pfizer Alliance and Ownership / Employee of Nil. LG and AZ are employees of Roche Diagnostics International Ltd. AG has received funding from Daiichi Sankyo, Astra Zenica, Bayer, Bristol Myers Squibb-Pfizer, Viola, Medtonic, Berlin Charitè. JHS has received Advisory board fees in Medtronic and Speaker fee from Medtronic. KGH has received fees from Abbott, Alexion, AMARIN, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Biotronik, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers-Squibb, Daiichi Sankyo, Edwards Lifesciences, Medtronic, Pfizer, Premier Research, SUN Pharma and W. L. Gare & Associates and Research Grants from Bayer Vital, Sanofi-Aventis. JSH received fees from Boston Scientific, Servier, Bayer, Myokardia, Bristol-Myers-Squibb, Pfizer, and research grants from Medtronic, Boston Scientific, Bristol-Myers-Squibb, Abbott. HH has received lecture and consultancy fees from Abbott, Biotronik, Bristol-Myers-Squibb- Pfizer, Medscape, Daiichi Sankyo, Springer Healthcare Ltd and receive un conditional research grants through the Univerity of Antwerp and/or University of Hasselt from Abbott, Bayer, Biotronik, Biosense-Webster, Fibrickeck/Qompium, Medtronic, Bristol-Myers-Squibb- Pfizer, Boston Scientific, Daiichi Sankyo and Boehringer Ingelheim. RH has received speacker fees from BI, Bayer and Bristol-Myers-Squibb- Pfizer and AZ. TH is CEO of Preventicus GmbH. DK has received funding from Bayer, AtriCure, Protherics Medicines Development and Myokardia and Research grant from rants from the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR CDF-2015-08-074 RATE-AF; NIHR HTA-130280 DaRe2THINK; NIHR EME- 132974 D2T-NV), the British Heart Foundation (PG/17/55/33087 and AA/18/2/34218), EU/EFPIA IMI (BigData@Heart 116074),the European Society of Cardiology supported by educationalgrants from Boehringer Ingelheim/BMS-Pfizer Alliance/Bayer/Daiichi Sankyo/Boston Scientific, the NIHR/the University of Ox- ford Biomedical Research Centre, and British Heart Foundation/ the University of Birmingham Accelerator Award (STEEER-AF NCT04396418), Amomed Pharma, and IRCCS San Raffaele/Menarini (beta-blockers in Heart Failure Collaborative Group NCT0083244). MK is employee of Bristol-Myers and Squibb. CL has received fees from medtonic, Boston Scientific, Biotronik and Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer and research grants from Rennes Univerity, Metronik, Biotonik and Boston Scientific. DL has received research grant for EHRA-PATHS, NovoNordisk Young Investigator Award. MLL has received lecture fees from Bristol-Myers and Squibb and research grant from H2020 AFFECT-EU (grant No. 847770). SM has received research grant from Daiichi Sankyo (EPDAURUS IIT) and Bristol-Myers and Squibb (APPROACH ACS AF IIT). JLM has received Abbott, Boston Scientific, Biotronik, Boehringer Ingelheim, Sanofi, Microport and received research grants from Medtronic, Abbott, Microport, Biosense. RM is employee of Medtronic. LM is Stockholder for Galgomedical and Corify and receiving consuting fees from Abbott, Biosense-Webster, Bosten Scientific, Medtronik and receiving research grants from Abbott, Biosense-Webster, Bosten Scientific, Medtronik. LN has received consulting fees from Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer. GP is employee of Bayer AG. HP has received consulting fees from Abbott, Biosense-Webster, Bosten Scientific, Medtronik and receiving research grants from Abbott, Bayer, Biosense-Webster, Bosten Scientific, Medtronik, Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer. MR has received consulting fees for Medtonic, Arca BiopharmaInc, Roche and received research grants from Dutch Heart Foundation: RACE V, RED-CVD, CVON-AI, DECISION studies; grant from SJM/Abbott to institution: VIP-HF study; Grant for Medtronic to institution: Cryoballoon AF registry/biobank study. The other authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.LR has received research grants from Canadian Insititute of Health research and Byer Inc. U.S. received consultancy fees or honoraria from Università della Svizzera Italiana (USI, Switzerland), Roche Diagnostics (Switzerland), EP Solutions Inc. (Switzerland), Johnson & Johnson Medical Limited, (United Kingdom), Bayer Healthcare (Germany). U.S. is co-founder and shareholder of YourRhythmics BV, a spin-off company of the University Maastricht and Research grant from the Dutch Heart Foundation (CVON RACE V, CVON2014–09) European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program granted to MS under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement #813716 (TRAIN-HEART Innovative Training Network), and various other programs of the European Union granted to US (ITN Network Personalize AF: Personalized Therapies for Atrial Fibrillation: a translational network – grant #860974; CATCH ME: Characterizing Atrial fibrillation by Translating its Causes into Health Modifiers in the Elderly – grant #633196; MAESTRIA: Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Early Detection Stroke Atrial Fibrillation – grant #965286; REPAIR: Restoring cardiac mechanical function by polymeric artificial muscular tissue – grant #952166). DS has received consultation fees from Biosense Webster, Abbott, Boston Scientific, Consultant with stock option: SentiAR, Arga Medtech. RS is employee of Daiichi Sankyo Europe GmbH. DS has received consultation fees from Boston Scientific, Abbott and Research grant from Biosense Webster. ES has received lecture fees from Bayer, Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Johnson & Johnson, Merck Sharp & Dohme and Sanofi. DT has received lecture fees from Bayer Vital, Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer, Daiichi Sankyo, Medtonic, Zoll CMS, Sanofi, St. Jude Medical and research grant from Daiichi Sankyo. MTH is employee/owner of American Foundation of women's Health /StopAfib.org and employee/owner of True Hills Inc.. BV is employee of Bayer AG. RW has received consultation fees from Boston Scientific, Biotronic, Pfizer, Daiichi Sankyo, Bayer, Adagio Medical and Research grant from Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer, Boston Scientific. CW has received consulation fees from Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Novartis and research grant from BMBF, AFNET, DZHK, Biotronik. MW is employee and shareholder of Sanofi. SW has received Consulting fees from Boston Scientific, Abbott, Bayer, Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim and research grant from Boston Scientific. HW is employee and stockholder of Pfizer Germany. MDZ has received advisory and speaker fee from Bristol-Myers and Squibb- Pfizer. PK reports grants and non-financial support from BMBF (German Ministry of Education and Research), grants from Sanofi and Abbott, grants and non-financial support from EHRA (European Heart Rhythm Association), and grants from German Heart Foundation and DZHK (German Center for Cardiovascular Research), during the conduct of the study, and grants from European Union, British Heart Foundation, Leducq Foundation, Medical Research Council (UK), and non-financial support from German Centre for Heart Research, outside the submitted work; in addition, P.K. has a patent Atrial Fibrillation Therapy WO 2015140571 issued to University of Birmingham and a patent Markers for Atrial Fibrillation WO 2016012783 issued to University of Birmingham., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: To explore sex-specific time trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence and to estimate the impact of changes in risk factor levels using individual participant-level data from the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016., Methods and Results: A total of 14 818 women and 13 225 men aged 25 years or older without AF were enrolled in the Tromsø Study between 1994 and 2008 and followed up for incident AF throughout 2016. Poisson regression was used for statistical analyses. During follow-up, age-adjusted AF incidence rates in women decreased from 1.19 to 0.71 per 1000 person-years. In men, AF incidence increased from 1.18 to 2.82 per 1000 person-years in 2004, and then declined to 1.94 per 1000 person-years in 2016. Changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption together accounted for 10.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): -2.4 to 28.6] of the AF incidence decline in women and for 44.7% (95% CI: 19.2; 100.0) of the AF incidence increase in men. Reduction in SBP and DBP had the largest contribution to the decrease in AF incidence in women. Increase in BMI had the largest contribution to the increase in AF incidence in men., Conclusion: In the population-based Tromsø Study 1994-2016, AF incidence decreased in women and increased following a reverse U-shape in men. Individual changes in SBP and DBP in women and individual changes in BMI in men were the most important risk factors contributing to the AF incidence trends., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Endurance sport practice is associated with a high prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), which increases the risk of stroke in the general population. However, stroke risk in endurance athletes with AF is sparsely investigated. Most studies have been limited by design and are largely restricted to younger and middle-aged populations. Thus, we aimed to investigate AF and stroke risk in older athletes exposed to prolonged endurance training., Method: During a 10-year period, 505 male athletes aged ≥65 years frequently participating in a long-distance ski race were compared with 1867 men of the same age from the general population. The main exposure was endurance sport practice with self-reported AF and stroke as outcomes. Stroke risk was further examined by joint modelling of AF and endurance practice. Statistical analysis was conducted with a modified Poisson model., Results: Athletes (median age: 68, range: 65-90) participated in a long-distance ski race over a median of 14 years (range: 1-53). Prevalence (28.5% vs 17.8%) and adjusted risk of AF (risk ratio (RR): 1.88, 95% CI: 1.49 to 2.37) were higher in athletes compared with non-athletes, whereas the prevalence (5.4% vs 9.7%) and risk of stroke were lower (RR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.95). Compared with athletes without AF, risk of stroke was twofold in athletes (RR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.08 to 5.24) and nearly fourfold in non-athletes (RR: 3.87, 95% CI: 1.98 to 7.57) with AF., Conclusion: Although older male endurance athletes experienced an increased risk of AF, the long-term risk of stroke was substantially reduced compared with non-athletes., Competing Interests: Competing interests: M-LL has received lecture fees from Bayer, Sanofi and BMS/Pfizer not related to this study. MM has received lecture fees from Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Bristol Myers Squibb, mSD and Pfizer not related to this work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Shift work is associated with myocardial infarction and stroke. We studied if shift work is also associated with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and if this association differs, depending on sex and age., Methods: We studied 22 339 participants (age 37.0±9.8 years, 49% women) with paid work from the third (1986-1987), fourth (1994-1995), fifth (2001) and sixth (2007-2008) surveys of the population-based Tromsø Study, Norway. Participants were followed up for ECG-confirmed AF through 2016. Shift work was assessed by questionnaire at each survey. We used unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models to study the association of shift work with 10-year incident AF and incident AF during extensive follow-up up to 31 years. Interactions with sex and age were tested in the multivariable model., Results: Shift work was reported by 21% of participants at the first attended survey. There was an interaction between shift work and age for 10-year incident AF (p=0.069). When adjusted for AF risk factors, shift work was significantly associated with 10-year incident AF in participants <40 years (HR 2.90, 95% CI 1.12 to 7.49) but not≥40 years of age (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.51). Shift work was not associated with incident AF during extensive follow-up (HR 1.03, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.20). There was no interaction between shift work and sex., Conclusions: Shift work was associated with 10-year incident AF in individuals <40 years but not ≥40 years of age. Shift work was not associated with incident AF during extensive follow-up up to 31 years, and there were no sex differences., Competing Interests: Competing interests: Outside of the submitted work, the authors disclosed the following financial support: RAdB reports grants from the Dutch Heart Foundation (CVON SHE-PREDICTS-HF, grant 2017-21; CVON RED-CVD, grant 2017-11; CVON PREDICT2, grant 2018-30; and CVON DOUBLE DOSE, grant 2020B005), leDucq Foundation (Cure PhosphoLambaN induced Cardiomyopathy) and the European Research Council (SECRETE-HF, ERC CoG 818715). The UMCG, which employs RAdB, received research grants and/or fees from AstraZeneca, Abbott, Boehringer Ingelheim, Cardior Pharmaceuticals Gmbh, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Novo Nordisk and Roche. RAdB received speaker fees from Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Novartis and Roche. MR reports grants from the Dutch Heart Foundation (CVON RACE V, grant 2014-09; CVON RED-CVD, grant 2017-11; CVON-AI, grant 2018B017; DECISION, grant 2018B024). The UMCG, which employs MR, received grants from SJM/Abbott (VIP-HF study) and Medtronic (Cryoballoon AF registry/biobank study)., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background Although myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are frequent comorbidities and share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence, and mortality are not completely understood. Methods and Results In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses, we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF, and all-cause mortality in 108 363 individuals (median age, 46.0 years; 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from 6 European population-based cohorts. During a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years, 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, and diabetes appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. Combined population attributable fraction of cardiovascular risk factors was >70% for incident MI, whereas it was only 27% for AF. Subsequent MI after AF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.68; 95% CI, 1.03-2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.31-2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk. Conclusions We observed different associations of cardiovascular risk factors with both diseases indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways. Subsequent diagnoses of MI and AF significantly increased mortality risk.

Objectives: The increased survival rate of cardiovascular disease (CVD) implies a higher proportion of individuals who live with CVD. Using data from the Tromsø Study, we aimed to investigate mental health symptom trajectories before and after myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation or stroke in a general population and to explore factors that contribute to the association., Design: Cohort study., Setting: Sample drawn from inhabitants of the municipality of Tromsø, Norway, who participated in the Tromsø Study (1994-2016)., Participants: A total of 18 719 participants (52.3% women) were included, and of these 2098 (32.9% women) were diagnosed with myocardial infarction, 1896 (41.9% women) with atrial fibrillation and 1263 (42.9% women) with stroke., Primary Outcome Measures: Mental health symptoms were assessed using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist-10 and the Conor Mental Health Index., Results: The participants who were diagnosed with either myocardial infarction or stroke had a significant monotonous increase in mental health symptoms before myocardial infarction (p=0.029) and stroke (p=0.029) that intensified at the time of diagnosis. After the event, the study found a higher prevalence of mental health symptoms with a decline in symptom levels over time for myocardial infarction (p<0.001) and stroke (p=0.004), but not for atrial fibrillation (before: p=0.180, after: p=0.410). The risk of elevated mental health symptoms with myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and stroke was associated with sex (p<0.001), age (p<0.01), physical activity (p<0.001), diabetes (p<0.05) and other comorbidities (p<0.001)., Conclusion: The study indicates that mental health problems among individuals with myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and stroke may have started to develop several years before the cardiovascular event and suggests that successful CVD rehabilitation may need to consider previous life factors. Future research is recommended to examine whether health promotion measures in a general population also create mental health resilience after a CVD event., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Growing evidence suggests a consistent association between atrial fibrillation (AF) and cognitive impairment and dementia that is independent of clinical stroke. This report from the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration summarizes the evidence linking AF to cognitive impairment and dementia. It provides guidance on the investigation and management of dementia in patients with AF on the basis of best available evidence. The document also addresses suspected pathophysiologic mechanisms and identifies knowledge gaps for future research. Whereas AF and dementia share numerous risk factors, the association appears to be independent of these variables. Nevertheless, the evidence remains inconclusive regarding a direct causal effect. Several pathophysiologic mechanisms have been proposed, some of which are potentially amenable to early intervention, including cerebral microinfarction, AF-related cerebral hypoperfusion, inflammation, microhemorrhage, brain atrophy, and systemic atherosclerotic vascular disease. The mitigating role of oral anticoagulation in specific subgroups (eg, low stroke risk, short duration or silent AF, after successful AF ablation, or atrial cardiopathy) and the effect of rhythm versus rate control strategies remain unknown. Likewise, screening for AF (in cognitively normal or cognitively impaired patients) and screening for cognitive impairment in patients with AF are debated. The pathophysiology of dementia and therapeutic strategies to reduce cognitive impairment warrant further investigation in individuals with AF. Cognition should be evaluated in future AF studies and integrated with patient-specific outcome priorities and patient preferences. Further large-scale prospective studies and randomized trials are needed to establish whether AF is a risk factor for cognitive impairment, to investigate strategies to prevent dementia, and to determine whether screening for unknown AF followed by targeted therapy might prevent or reduce cognitive impairment and dementia.

Aims: Left atrial (LA) enlargement is an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). Interestingly, some athletes have increased risk of AF, which may be linked to LA enlargement; however, little is known about the relationship between LA enlargement and AF risk at moderate-level physical activity (PA). We aimed to explore the associations between PA, LA size and risk of incident AF, and if PA can attenuate the risk of AF with LA enlargement., Methods: This prospective study followed 2479 participants (52.4% female), free from known cardiac pathology, for median 20.2 years. Participants were followed up for hospital-diagnosed AF, confirmed by electrocardiography, from 1994-95 through 2016. At baseline, LA size was evaluated by anteroposterior LA diameter, and PA was self-reported by questionnaire., Results: We observed a U-shaped relationship between PA and AF, and moderately active had 32% lower AF risk than inactive (HR adjusted 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.93). Participants with LA enlargement had 38% higher AF risk compared with participants with normal LA size (HR adjusted 1.38, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.69). However, the increased AF risk with LA enlargement was attenuated by PA; compared with inactive participants with LA enlargement, the AF risk was 45% lower among active with LA enlargement (HR adjusted 0.55, 95% CI 0.39 to 0.79). AF risk in active participants with LA enlargement did not differ from active with normal LA size. These patterns were observed in both men and women, and in participants over/under 65 years., Conclusion: Moderate PA was associated with reduced AF risk, and PA attenuated the increased risk of AF with LA enlargement in both men and women and all age groups., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The main aim was to examine age-specific risk factor associations with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their attributable fraction in a large European cohort. Additionally, we aimed to examine risk of stroke and mortality in relation to new-onset AF across age., Methods: We used individual-level data (n=66 951, 49.1% men, age range 40-98 years at baseline) from five European cohorts of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph Consortium. The participants were followed for incident AF for up to 10 years and the association with modifiable risk factors from the baseline examinations (body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, daily smoking, alcohol consumption and history of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI)) was examined. Additionally, the participants were followed up for incident stroke and all-cause mortality after new-onset AF., Results: AF incidence increased from 0.9 per 1000 person-years at baseline age 40-49 years, to 17.7 at baseline age ≥70 years. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed that higher BMI, hypertension, high alcohol consumption and a history of stroke or MI were associated with increased risk of AF across age groups (p<0.05). Between 30% and 40% of the AF risk could be attributed to BMI, hypertension and a history of stroke or MI. New-onset AF was associated with a twofold increase in risk of stroke and death at ages≥70 years (p≤0.001)., Conclusion: In this large European cohort aged 40 years and above, risk of AF was largely attributed to BMI, high alcohol consumption and a history MI or stroke from middle age. Thus, preventive measures for AF should target risk factors such as obesity and hypertension from early age and continue throughout life., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RBS has received lecture fees and advisory board fees from BMS/Pfizer outside this work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aims: There is inconsistent evidence on the relation of alcohol intake with incident atrial fibrillation (AF), in particular at lower doses. We assessed the association between alcohol consumption, biomarkers, and incident AF across the spectrum of alcohol intake in European cohorts., Methods and Results: In a community-based pooled cohort, we followed 107 845 individuals for the association between alcohol consumption, including types of alcohol and drinking patterns, and incident AF. We collected information on classical cardiovascular risk factors and incident heart failure (HF) and measured the biomarkers N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin I. The median age of individuals was 47.8 years, 48.3% were men. The median alcohol consumption was 3 g/day. N = 5854 individuals developed AF (median follow-up time: 13.9 years). In a sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analysis alcohol consumption was non-linearly and positively associated with incident AF. The hazard ratio for one drink (12 g) per day was 1.16, 95% CI 1.11-1.22, P < 0.001. Associations were similar across types of alcohol. In contrast, alcohol consumption at lower doses was associated with reduced risk of incident HF. The association between alcohol consumption and incident AF was neither fully explained by cardiac biomarker concentrations nor by the occurrence of HF., Conclusions: In contrast to other cardiovascular diseases such as HF, even modest habitual alcohol intake of 1.2 drinks/day was associated with an increased risk of AF, which needs to be considered in AF prevention., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: To explore sex-specific associations between long-term individual blood pressure (BP) patterns and risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population., Methods and Results: Blood pressure was measured in 8376 women and 7670 men who attended at least two of the three population-based Tromsø Study surveys conducted in 1986-87, 1994-95, and 2001. Participants were followed for incident AF throughout 2013. Latent mixed modelling was used to identify long-term trajectories of systolic BP and hypertension. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between the identified trajectories and incident AF. Elevated systolic BP throughout the exposure period (1986-2001) independently and differentially increased risk of AF in women and men. In women, having elevated systolic BP trajectories doubled AF risk compared to having persistently low levels, irrespective of whether systolic BP increased, decreased, or was persistently high over time, with hazard ratios of 1.88 (95% confidence interval 1.37-2.58), 2.32 (1.61-3.35), and 1.94 (1.28-2.94), respectively. In men, those with elevated systolic BP that continued to increase over time had a 50% increased AF risk: 1.51 (1.09-2.10). When compared to those persistently normotensive, women developing hypertension during the exposure period, and women and men with hypertension throughout the exposure period had 1.40 (1.06-1.86), 2.75 (1.99-3.80), and 1.36 (1.10-1.68) times increased risk of AF, respectively., Conclusion: Long-term BP and hypertension trajectories were associated with increased incidence of AF in both women and men, but the associations were stronger in women., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Aims: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality., Methods and Results: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001)., Conclusion: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Cardiac thromboembolism attributed to atrial fibrillation (AF) is responsible for up to one-third of ischemic strokes. Stroke may be the first manifestation of previously undetected AF. Given the efficacy of oral anticoagulants in preventing AF-related ischemic strokes, strategies of searching for AF after a stroke using ECG monitoring followed by oral anticoagulation (OAC) treatment have been proposed to prevent recurrent cardioembolic strokes. This white paper by experts from the AF-SCREEN International Collaboration summarizes existing evidence and knowledge gaps on searching for AF after a stroke by using ECG monitoring. New AF can be detected by routine plus intensive ECG monitoring in approximately one-quarter of patients with ischemic stroke. It may be causal, a bystander, or neurogenically induced by the stroke. AF after a stroke is a risk factor for thromboembolism and a strong marker for atrial myopathy. After acute ischemic stroke, patients should undergo 72 hours of electrocardiographic monitoring to detect AF. The diagnosis requires an ECG of sufficient quality for confirmation by a health professional with ECG rhythm expertise. AF detection rate is a function of monitoring duration and quality of analysis, AF episode definition, interval from stroke to monitoring commencement, and patient characteristics including old age, certain ECG alterations, and stroke type. Markers of atrial myopathy (eg, imaging, atrial ectopy, natriuretic peptides) may increase AF yield from monitoring and could be used to guide patient selection for more intensive/prolonged poststroke ECG monitoring. Atrial myopathy without detected AF is not currently sufficient to initiate OAC. The concept of embolic stroke of unknown source is not proven to identify patients who have had a stroke benefitting from empiric OAC treatment. However, some embolic stroke of unknown source subgroups (eg, advanced age, atrial enlargement) might benefit more from non-vitamin K-dependent OAC therapy than aspirin. Fulfilling embolic stroke of unknown source criteria is an indication neither for empiric non-vitamin K-dependent OAC treatment nor for withholding prolonged ECG monitoring for AF. Clinically diagnosed AF after a stroke or a transient ischemic attack is associated with significantly increased risk of recurrent stroke or systemic embolism, in particular, with additional stroke risk factors, and requires OAC rather than antiplatelet therapy. The minimum subclinical AF duration required on ECG monitoring poststroke/transient ischemic attack to recommend OAC therapy is debated.

Background: Atrial fibrillation represents a substantial clinical and public health issue. The definitive impact of body mass index on prognosis of patients with chronic (persistent or permanent) atrial fibrillation remains undetermined., Aim: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of body mass index with health outcomes (mortality and re-hospitalisation) of patients with chronic atrial fibrillation., Methods: Using data from the Standard versus Atrial Fibrillation spEcific managemenT strategY (SAFETY) trial (a randomised controlled trial of home-based, atrial fibrillation-specific disease management), we performed post-hoc analyses of mortality and re-hospitalisation outcomes during minimum 24-month follow-up according to baseline body mass index profile., Results: Of 297 participants (mean age 71±11 years, 47% female, mean body mass index 29.6±6.7 kg/m 2 ), 35.0% of participants were overweight (body mass index 25.0-29.9 kg/m 2 ) and 43.1% were obese (body mass index≥30 kg/m 2 ). During follow-up, n=42 died including 16/65 (24.6%) classified as normal body mass index, 16/104 (15.4%) classified as overweight and 10/128 (7.8%) classified as obese. Increasing body mass index was not associated with increased mortality but was associated with re-hospitalisation due to cardiovascular disease with greater length-of-stay (odds ratio 1.05; 95% confidence interval 1.00-1.09, p=0.032). Obese individuals experienced increased unplanned admissions compared to overweight individuals (incidence rate ratio 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.53-0.96, p=0.028), and increased cardiovascular-related (incidence rate ratio 0.58; 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.86, p=0.007) and all-cause admissions (incidence rate ratio 0.63; 95% confidence interval 0.45-0.89, p=0.008) compared to those classified as normal body mass index., Conclusion: Overweight and obesity were not associated with survival in patients with chronic atrial fibrillation but were associated with more frequent hospital care and prolonged stay.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) prevalence is increasing, and body mass index (BMI) is a risk factor for AF. However, sex differences in the impact of BMI on AF risk have not been fully elucidated., Methods and Results: Data from the fourth survey (1994-1995) of the Tromsø Study (Norway) were used to investigate the association of single-measurement BMI on future AF risk. To analyze the influence of BMI changes on AF risk, data from individuals who attended the third and fourth study surveys were used. AF diagnosis was derived from record linkage and end point adjudication. Cox regression analysis was conducted using fractional polynomials of BMI and BMI change with models adjusted for age, baseline BMI (change analyses), risk factors, comorbidities, and antihypertensive medications.Data were available for 24 799 individuals from the fourth survey (mean age, 45.5±14.2 years; 52.9% women). Over 15.7±5.5 years, 811 women (6.2%) and 918 men (7.9%) developed AF. In men, lower BMI decreased AF risk and higher BMI increased risk (hazard ratios [95% confidence intervals] for BMI 18 or 40 kg/m 2 compared with 23 kg/m 2 were 0.75 [0.70-0.81] and 4.42 [3.00-6.53], respectively). The same pattern was identified in women. Two surveys were attended by 14 652 individuals. In men and women, a decrease in BMI over time was associated with decreased AF risk and an increase in BMI was associated with increased AF risk., Conclusions: Within a population cohort, BMI was positively associated with AF risk. Change in BMI over time influenced AF risk in both men and women., (© 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.)

Although commonly associated with cardiovascular disease or other medical conditions, atrial fibrillation may also occur in individuals without any known underlying conditions. This manifestation of atrial fibrillation has been linked to extensive and long-term exercise, as prolonged endurance exercise has shown to increase prevalence and risk of atrial fibrillation. In contrast, more modest physical activity is associated with a decreased risk of atrial fibrillation, and current research indicates a J-shaped association between atrial fibrillation and the broad range of physical activity and exercise. This has led to the hypothesis that the mechanisms underlying an increased risk of atrial fibrillation with intensive exercise are different from those underlying a reduced risk with moderate physical activity, possibly linked to distinctive characteristics of the population under study. High volumes of exercise over many years performed by lean, healthy endurance trained athletes may lead to cardiac (patho)physiological alterations involving the autonomic nervous system and remodelling of the heart. The mechanisms underlying a reduced risk of atrial fibrillation with light and moderate physical activity may involve a distinctive pathway, as physical activity can potentially reduce the risk of atrial fibrillation through favourable effects on cardiovascular risk factors.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a well-established risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS). Emerging evidence also indicates an association between AF and pulmonary embolism (PE). Because IS may potentially mediate the observed risk of PE in AF, we aimed to assess the impact of AF on the cause-specific risks of PE and IS in a large cohort recruited from the general population., Methods and Results: We observed 29 842 participants from 3 surveys of the Tromsø study (inclusion in 1994-1995, 2001-2002, and 2007-2008) to the end of 2012. Incident events of AF, IS, and PE during follow-up were recorded, and information on potential confounders was obtained at baseline. Cox regression models, with AF as a time-dependent variable, were used to calculate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PE and IS. There were 2067 participants diagnosed as having AF, 296 with PE and 1164 with IS, during a median of 17.6 years of follow-up. The risks of PE (HR, 10.88; 95% CI, 6.23-18.89) and IS (HR, 6.16; 95% CI, 4.47-8.48) were substantially increased during the first 6 months after AF diagnosis, with crude incidence rates of 18.5 per 1000 person-years for PE and 52.8 per 1000 person-years for IS. The risk estimates remained elevated for both PE (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.10-2.71) and IS (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 2.05-2.92) throughout the study period., Conclusions: AF was associated with increased cause-specific risks of both PE and IS. Our findings infer that the risk of PE in AF is not explained by intermediate IS., (© 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia and a major risk factor for stroke, heart failure, and premature death. The pathogenesis of AF remains poorly understood, which contributes to the current lack of highly effective treatments. To understand the genetic variation and biology underlying AF, we undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 6,337 AF individuals and 61,607 AF-free individuals from Norway, including replication in an additional 30,679 AF individuals and 278,895 AF-free individuals. Through genotyping and dense imputation mapping from whole-genome sequencing, we tested almost nine million genetic variants across the genome and identified seven risk loci, including two novel loci. One novel locus (lead single-nucleotide variant [SNV] rs12614435; p = 6.76 × 10 -18 ) comprised intronic and several highly correlated missense variants situated in the I-, A-, and M-bands of titin, which is the largest protein in humans and responsible for the passive elasticity of heart and skeletal muscle. The other novel locus (lead SNV rs56202902; p = 1.54 × 10 -11 ) covered a large, gene-dense chromosome 1 region that has previously been linked to cardiac conduction. Pathway and functional enrichment analyses suggested that many AF-associated genetic variants act through a mechanism of impaired muscle cell differentiation and tissue formation during fetal heart development., (Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background Resting heart rate is an established risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but long-term individual resting heart rate trajectories and their effect on cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality have not yet been described. Methods This large population-based longitudinal study included 14,208 men and women aged 20 years or older, not pregnant and not using blood pressure medications, who attended at least two of the three Tromsø Study surveys conducted between 1986-2001. Resting heart rate was measured using an automated Dinamap device. Participants were followed up from 2001 to 2012 with respect to myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, ischaemic stroke, cardiovascular disease death and total death. The Proc Traj statistical procedure was used to identify resting heart rate trajectories. Results Five common long-term resting heart rate trajectories were identified: low, moderate, decreasing, increasing and elevated. In men, an elevated resting heart rate trajectory was independently associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction when low resting heart rate trajectory was used as a reference (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval 1.11-3.02). Risk of total death in men was lowest in the low resting heart rate trajectory group and highest in the increasing and elevated resting heart rate trajectory groups. In women, the association between resting heart rate trajectories and myocardial infarction was similar to that in men, but it was not significant. Conclusions Among the five long-term resting heart rate trajectories we identified, increasing and elevated trajectories were associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and total death in men. Our results suggest that changes in long-term individual resting heart rate in the general population may provide additional prognostic information.

Aims: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia in man, causing substantial morbidity and mortality with a major worldwide public health impact. It is increasingly recognized as a highly heritable condition. This study aimed to determine genetic risk factors for early-onset AF., Methods and Results: We sequenced the whole genomes of 8453 Icelanders and imputed genotypes of the 25.5 million sequence variants we discovered into 1799 Icelanders with early-onset AF (diagnosed before 60 years of age) and 337 453 controls. Each sequence variant was tested for association based on multiplicative and recessive inheritance models. We discovered a rare frameshift deletion in the myosin MYL4 gene (c.234delC) that associates with early-onset AF under a recessive mode of inheritance (allelic frequency = 0.58%). We found eight homozygous carriers of the mutation, all of whom had early-onset AF. Six of the homozygotes were diagnosed by the age of 30 and the remaining two in their 50s. Three of the homozygotes had received pacemaker implantations due to sick sinus syndrome, three had suffered an ischemic stroke, and one suffered sudden cardiac death., Conclusions: Through a population approach we found a loss of function mutation in the myosin gene MYL4 that, in the homozygous state, is completely penetrant for early-onset AF. The finding may provide novel mechanistic insight into the pathophysiology of this complex arrhythmia., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) increases risk of death overall, but a comprehensive picture of the associations between RHR, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality events has not yet been presented. We aimed to investigate the effect of RHR on the risk of 5 cardiovascular events: incident myocardial infarction (MI), incident atrial fibrillation (AF), incident ischaemic stroke, total death and cardiovascular death in a general population from Norway., Methods: We followed 24 489 men and women from the Tromsø Study 1994-1995, a population-based cohort study, for 18 years, and analysed the association between RHR and the investigated cardiovascular events. Sex-specific Cox regression with time-dependent covariates was applied with the best-fitting fractional polynomials of RHR., Results: Among men, an independent positive relationship was observed for MI and AF (adjusted HR for AF per 20 bpm increase=1.14; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27). In women, the corresponding HR for MI was 1.23 (1.09 to 1.40). A J-shaped association was observed for ischaemic stroke in women when compared with a RHR of 70 bpm (HR for 50 bpm=1.31; 0.90 to 1.90; HR for 100 bpm=1.32; 1.04 to 1.69). Total and cardiovascular death showed a strong positive association with RHR in men. In women, the pattern for total death was similar., Conclusions: RHR is an independent risk factor for several cardiovascular events. A novel finding is the positive association between RHR and AF in men and the sex difference in association with ischaemic stroke., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Objective: To investigate the association between echocardiographic measurements with emphasis on diastolic dysfunction and risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in a population-based cohort study., Methods: We followed 2406 participants from the Tromsø Study from 1994 to 2010. Left atrial (LA) size and mitral Doppler indices as measured by echocardiography were used for evaluating diastolic dysfunction. Information concerning age, systolic blood pressure, height, heart rate, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, self-reported use of alcohol, smoking, coffee, physical activity, antihypertensive treatment, prevalent coronary heart disease, valvular heart disease, heart failure, hypertrophy, diabetes and palpitations were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was clinical AF, documented by an ECG., Results: AF was detected in 462 subjects (193 women). Mean age at baseline was 62.6 years. Incidence rate of clinical AF was 12.6 per 1000 person-years. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, moderately enlarged LA was associated with 60% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.0) increased risk of AF. Severely enlarged LA had HR for AF of 4.2 (95% CI 2.7 to 6.5) with p value for linear trend <0.001, and the association was similar in both sexes. Abnormal mitral Doppler flow adjusted for predictor variables did not show a statistically significant association with AF risk. However, when LA size was also adjusted for, the risk of AF increased by 30% (95% CI 1.0 to 1.6)., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that enlarged LA as a measure for diastolic dysfunction is a significant risk factor for AF in both sexes, and adding measures of abnormal diastolic flow increased the predictive ability significantly., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Aims: Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiovascular disease in population studies, but its relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between baseline SUA and future AF in a large population-based cohort., Methods and Results: A total of 6308 men and women from a population survey in Tromsø, Norway in 1994-95 were followed-up for 10.8 years. The mean age at baseline was 60 years. Information on angina, myocardial infarction, diabetes, anti-hypertensive and diuretic treatment, physical activity, smoking and alcohol, and measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, SUA, total cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. We identified 572 cases of incident AF. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and concomitant diseases, SUA was associated with AF in both sexes. Hazard ratio per 1 SD increase in SUA (91 μmol/L) was 1.40 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.14-1.72] in women and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.02-1.36) in men. The upper quartile of SUA conferred a 76% increased risk for AF in women and 49% in men as compared with the lowest quartile., Conclusion: This prospective population-based cohort study showed that baseline SUA was associated with an increased risk for future AF in both sexes.

Background: Pulmonary embolism (PE) may trigger atrial fibrillation through increased right atrial pressure and subsequent atrial strain, but the degree of evidence is low. In this study, we wanted to investigate the impact of incident venous thromboembolism (VTE) on future risk of atrial fibrillation in a prospective population-based study., Methods and Results: The study included 29 974 subjects recruited from the Tromsø study (1994-1995, 2001-2002, 2007-2008). Incident VTE and atrial fibrillation events were registered from date of enrolment to end of follow-up, December 31, 2010. Cox proportional hazard regression models using age as time-scale and VTE as a time-dependent variable were used to estimate crude and multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) for atrial fibrillation with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). During 16 years of follow up, 540 (1.8%) subjects had an incident VTE event, and 1662 (5.54%) were diagnosed with atrial fibrillation. Among those with VTE, 50 (9.3%) developed subsequent atrial fibrillation. Patients with VTE had 63% higher risk of atrial fibrillation compared to subjects without VTE (multivariable-adjusted HR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.22 to 2.17). The risk of atrial fibrillation was particularly high during the first 6 months after the VTE event (HR 4.00, 95% CI: 2.21 to 7.25) and among those with PE (HR 1.78, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.80)., Conclusions: We found that incident VTE was associated with future risk of atrial fibrillation. Our findings support the hypothesis that PE may lead to cardiac dysfunctions that, in turn, could trigger atrial fibrillation.

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia which increases morbidity and mortality. Identification of risk factors is therefore important. We examined the impact of palpitations and cardiovascular risk factors in prediction of AF (all types) and lone AF in a large population-based cohort., Design: We carried out a prospective population-based cohort study., Methods: A total of 22,815 participants from a population survey in 1994-1995 were followed-up for a mean of 11.1 years. Mean age at baseline was 46 years. Measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, heart rate, total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol, and information on palpitations, diabetes, angina, myocardial infarction, and antihypertensive treatment were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for AF., Results: Palpitations were associated with increased risk of AF in both women (HR 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.02) and men (HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.54-2.35). For hypertension the HR for AF was 1.98 (1.46-2.69) in women and 1.40 (1.13-1.74) in men. The HR for 1 SD increase in body mass index (BMI) was 1.16 (1.06-1.27) in women and 1.47 (1.32-1.63) in men. Body height and BMI were associated with increased risk for lone AF in men., Conclusion: Palpitations, hypertension and BMI were predictive of future atrial fibrillation in both sexes.

Background: Inflammatory biomarkers are reported as risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), but their impact is uncertain., Objective: We investigated the associations between inflammatory biomarkers and future AF in a large general cohort., Methods: Available markers were white blood cells (WBCs) with subgroups, fibrinogen, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and osteoprotegerin (OPG). A total of 6315 men and women from a population survey in Tromsø, Norway in 1994 to 1995 were followed for a mean of 10.9 years. Mean age at baseline was 60 years. Measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, heart rate, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, WBC count, and information on diabetes, angina, myocardial infarction, and antihypertensive treatment, were obtained at baseline. Fibrinogen, hs-CRP, and OPG were obtained at a follow-up visit. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate hazard ratios of AF., Results: In the multivariable analysis, adjusted for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and other inflammatory biomarkers, hs-CRP was associated with AF in men only (hazard ratio = 1.14 for a 1 SD increase; 95% CI, 1.02-1.28). There was a significant increase in AF across quartiles of WBCs in men (P = 0.007) and in the total study population (P = 0.004). OPG was associated with AF in patients free of coronary heart disease at baseline. Fibrinogen and subgroups of WBCs showed no significant association with AF., Conclusion: This population-based cohort study showed that hs-CRP was independently associated with AF in men, but apparently not in women, and that patients with WBCs in the upper quartile had increased risk of AF., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.)

We expanded our genome-wide association study on atrial fibrillation (AF) in Iceland, which previously identified risk variants on 4q25, and tested the most significant associations in samples from Iceland, Norway and the United States. A variant in the ZFHX3 gene on chromosome 16q22, rs7193343-T, associated significantly with AF (odds ratio OR = 1.21, P = 1.4 x 10(-10)). This variant also associated with ischemic stroke (OR = 1.11, P = 0.00054) and cardioembolic stroke (OR = 1.22, P = 0.00021) in a combined analysis of five stroke samples.

Aims To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. Methods and results In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82–2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13–1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10–1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02–1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. Conclusion Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: Limited evidence is available on the temporal relationship between atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischaemic stroke and their impact on mortality in the community. We sought to understand the temporal relationship of AF and ischaemic stroke and to determine the sequence of disease onset in relation to mortality.Methods and Results: Across five prospective community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) project we assessed baseline cardiovascular risk factors in 100 132 individuals, median age 46.1 (25th-75th percentile 35.8-57.5) years, 48.4% men. We followed them for incident ischaemic stroke and AF and determined the relation of subsequent disease diagnosis with overall mortality. Over a median follow-up of 16.1 years, N = 4555 individuals were diagnosed solely with AF, N = 2269 had an ischaemic stroke but no AF diagnosed, and N = 898 developed both, ischaemic stroke and AF. Temporal relationships showed a clustering of diagnosis of both diseases within the years around the diagnosis of the other disease. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analyses with time-dependent covariates subsequent diagnosis of AF after ischaemic stroke was associated with increased mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 4.05, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.17-7.54; P < 0.001] which was also apparent when ischaemic stroke followed after the diagnosis of AF (HR 3.08, 95% CI 1.90-5.00; P < 0.001).Conclusion: The temporal relations of ischaemic stroke and AF appear to be bidirectional. Ischaemic stroke may precede detection of AF by years. The subsequent diagnosis of both diseases significantly increases mortality risk. Future research needs to investigate the common underlying systemic disease processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims The objective was to examine the association of physical activity and resting heart rate (RHR) with hospital-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) in a Norwegian cohort. Methods and results This prospective study included 20 484 adults (50.3% men) who participated in the third Tromsø Study survey in 1986-87. At baseline, physical activity was assessed by a validated questionnaire, and RHR was objectively measured. Participants were followed from baseline through 2010 with respect to incident cases of hospital-diagnosed AF documented on an electrocardiogram. During a mean follow-up period of 20 years (409 045 person-years), 750 participants (70.5% men) were diagnosed with AF. Compared with the low physical activity group, moderately active individuals had a 19% lower risk of any AF [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68-0.97], whereas highly active had similar risk of AF. Vigorously active individuals showed a non-significantly higher risk of AF (adjusted HR 1.37, 95% CI 0.77-2.43). Risk of AF increased with decreasing RHR (adjusted HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.86-0.98 for each 10 b.p.m. increase in RHR), and RHR < 50 b.p.m. was a risk factor for AF (P < 0.05). Conclusion In this prospective cohort study, leisure time physical activity was associated with AF in a J-shaped pattern. Moderate physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of AF, whereas higher activity levels attenuated the benefits of moderate activity. Low RHR was a risk factor for AF. Our results support the hypothesis that moderate and vigorous physical activity may affect AF risk via different pathophysiological mechanisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Serum uric acid (SUA) has been associated with cardiovascular disease in population studies, but its relation to atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between baseline SUA and future AF in a large population-based cohort. Methods and results A total of 6308 men and women from a population survey in Tromsø, Norway in 1994–95 were followed-up for 10.8 years. The mean age at baseline was 60 years. Information on angina, myocardial infarction, diabetes, anti-hypertensive and diuretic treatment, physical activity, smoking and alcohol, and measurements of height, weight, blood pressure, SUA, total cholesterol, and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol were obtained at baseline. The outcome measure was first-ever AF, documented on an electrocardiogram. We identified 572 cases of incident AF. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and concomitant diseases, SUA was associated with AF in both sexes. Hazard ratio per 1 SD increase in SUA (91 μmol/L) was 1.40 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 1.14–1.72] in women and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.02–1.36) in men. The upper quartile of SUA conferred a 76% increased risk for AF in women and 49% in men as compared with the lowest quartile. Conclusion This prospective population-based cohort study showed that baseline SUA was associated with an increased risk for future AF in both sexes. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Electrocardiographic measures are indicative of the function of the cardiac conduction system. To search for sequence variants that modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration in individuals of European descent, we performed a genome-wide association study in ∼10,000 individuals and followed up the top signals in an additional ∼10,000 individuals. We identified several genome-wide significant associations (with P < 1.6 × 10−7). We identified one locus for heart rate (MYH6), four for PR interval (TBX5, SCN10A, CAV1 and ARHGAP24) and four for QRS duration (TBX5, SCN10A, 6p21 and 10q21). We tested for association between these loci and subjects with selected arrhythmias in Icelandic and Norwegian case-control sample sets. We observed correlations between TBX5 and CAV1 and atrial fibrillation (P = 4.0 × 10−5 and P = 0.00032, respectively), between TBX5 and advanced atrioventricular block (P = 0.0067), and between SCN10A and pacemaker implantation (P = 0.0029). We also replicated previously described associations with the QT interval. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study was to explore sex-specific associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP), hypertension, and the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) subtypes, including paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF, in a general population. A total of 13,137 women and 11,667 men who participated in the fourth survey of the Tromsø Study (1994–1995) were followed up for incident AF until the end of 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted using fractional polynomials for SBP to provide sex- and AF-subtype-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for SBP. An SBP of 120 mmHg was used as the reference. Models were adjusted for other cardiovascular risk factors. Over a mean follow-up of 17.6 ± 6.6 years, incident AF occurred in 914 (7.0%) women (501 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 413 with permanent AF) and 1104 (9.5%) men (606 with paroxysmal/persistent AF and 498 with permanent AF). In women, an SBP of 180 mmHg was associated with an HR of 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.60–2.76) for paroxysmal/persistent AF and an HR of 1.80 (95% CI 1.33–2.44) for permanent AF. In men, an SBP of 180 mmHg was associated with an HR of 1.90 (95% CI 1.46–2.46) for paroxysmal/persistent AF, while there was no association with the risk of permanent AF. In conclusion, increasing SBP was associated with an increased risk of both paroxysmal/persistent AF and permanent AF in women, but only paroxysmal/persistent AF in men. Our findings highlight the importance of sex-specific risk stratification and optimizing blood pressure management for the prevention of AF subtypes in clinical practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]